2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

[venture]

This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

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2013 Atlantic Storm Names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy


2013 Eastern Pacific Storm Names: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Manuel, Narda, Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velma, Wallis, Xina, York, Zelda


2013 Central Pacific Storm Names: Akoni, Ema, Hone, Iona, Keli, Lala, Moke, Nolo, Olana, Pena, Ulana, Wale

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Current Conditions

Eastern Pacific Activity Atlantic Basic Activity

Atlantic & East Pac SSTs and Active Systems Potential for Tropical Formation Next 48 Hours

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Weather Information

Atlantic Visible Satellite	Atlantic Water Vapor

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Western Gulf Coast	Central Gulf Coast	Eastern Gulf Coast

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References

• COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Analysis Data
• Spaghetti Models Forecast Page: Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update
• Florida State Model Page: Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
• Penn State Model Page: e-WALL : PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL
• Storm Prediction Center: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
• TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts
• Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page
• NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts
• NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings
• HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental
• ECMWF Euro Model: Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa and geopotential 500 hPa, temperature at 850 hPa

[venture]

We have our first Tropical Depression of the season in East Pac. TD One-E is forecast to become TS Alvin by this afternoon and a hurricane by Friday. Should stay out in the open water. Sometimes from East Pac systems we can get a good amount of moisture, but this doesn't look like one right now.



In addition to that, the final report on Hurricane/Post-Trop Storm Sandy was released today with several recommendations.

The full report is here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Sandy13.pdf

Changes:

• NHC will remain principle point of contact for similar storms instead of handing over to local WFOs.
• NWS will generate products focused on impacts to clear communicate hazards.
• Develop new tools for communicating with EMs, FEMA, media, and public.
• Hire social science expert to help develop better ways to communicate with the public.
• Develop more effective and consistent products to communicate severe weather impacts.
• Allow NHC to maintain Hurricane/Tropical Storm watches and warnings after a system goes post-tropical.
• Allow NHC to continue issuing advisories after the storm goes post-tropical if there is a significant threat to life and property.
• Emphasize strongest winds/highest surge could be well away from center.
• Focus on substantial hazards regardless of post-trop status.
• Personalize storm surge threat for coastal residents.
• Provide single website, i.e. "Storm.gov", to offers all critical information in one place for geographically large storms.
• Redesign and makes all NWS sites more user friendly.
• Provide media a concise overview of storm impacts.
• Develop better website redundancies before start of season to avoid outages.
• Websites should be easily accessible by mobile devices.
• Improve usage of social media.
• Provide Storm Surge forecast at least 48 hours out including high-res graphics.
• Increase storm surge model developers and additional surge forecasters.
• Provide guidance on wave run up and effects on coastal rivers.
• Better training for all WFOs that have tropical responsibilities, including back ups.
• Develop separate Storm Surge warning.

[venture]

TS Barbara may make landfall as a hurricane today in Mexico. Will be interesting to see if it survives into the Gulf.

[venture]

Maybe some development in the tropics...overall low chance though.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[SoonerDave]

Saw one non-gov hurricane/tropical forecast that suggested the possibility, albeit remote, that the L might form and track across Florida, dump some pretty good rain there around Thursday, then be off the Carolina coast by Saturday or so. So that seems to line up pretty well with what Venture just posted...I need for it not to be highly tropically stormy in Florida this weekend Prepared for/expect normal afternoon summer thundershowers, but not a tropical storm.

[venture]

Weak low in the gulf could be a tropical depression in a day and possible a tropical storm before making landfall in the Panhandle of FL. Main impacts are just some heavy rain over Florida.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

Invest 91L is a bit better organized. Could be a tropical depression soon and maybe be a weak Storm before landfall.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

Water Vapor Image showing a ton of dry air on the west side.







NAM has landfall 10PM CT tomorrow night in the FL Panhandle



GFS doesn't tighten the low up but moves the bulk of precip over the Peninsula earlier...

[venture]

Tropical Depression/Storm increasingly possible before landfall. Hurricane hunter going in today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[jn1780]

First storm of the season.....

000
WTNT41 KNHC 052203
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[venture]

Here is the forecast track...

[venture]

Updated Discussion and latest radar shot showing a good number of tornado warnings for the quick spin ups that are common in the feeder bands.

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013


EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ANDREA HAS BEEN IMPROVING
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
LOCATED IN A BAND THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AT THIS TIME...AND THE TAMPA WSR-88D HAS BEEN SHOWING 65-70 KT AT
ABOUT 6500 FT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT
PENDING THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THIS AFTERNOON.


ANDREA HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/13 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND IT IS GETTING
CLOSER TO FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANDREA TO RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...AND ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.


GIVEN THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...THERE IS
NO STRONG EVIDENCE THAT ANDREA WILL STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT ANDREA WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS DO NOT SHOW
STRONG BAROCLINICITY UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE FSU PHASE-SPACE
DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE TRANSITION COULD BE
COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
ANDREA AS TROPICAL UNTIL 36 HOURS.


THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE
TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT
INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.


REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 06/1500Z 28.2N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 30.3N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1200Z 33.4N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 46.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 47.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z 52.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Bunty]

Update on NHC Products and Services for 2013
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/2013040...uctChanges.pdf

[venture]

Say Hello to Chantel...

Tropical Storm CHANTAL

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive

[venture]

[Anonymous.]

Wish this would have a higher chance of getting caught more south and sneak into the Gulf.

[venture]

Model spread starting to push more over FL and even into the Gulf now. Not really buying it just yet (the Gulf portion), but its there.

[venture]

The overnight 'sghetti plot continues the drift to the west. Right now the official forecast bring what is expected to be Depression Chantal over much of Florida.

​

[venture]

Invest 98L has moved off the coast of Africa...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


1. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


FORECASTER STEWART

[venture]

Invest 98L is now TS Dorian

Tropical Storm DORIAN

[hr][/hr]

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive [hr][/hr]

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive

Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

[venture]

[ou48A]

We have this brewing in the tropics.

It looks like there's a chance it could make the Gulf of Mexico.

[venture]

We have this brewing in the tropics.

It looks like there's a chance it could make the Gulf of Mexico.

You mean what was linked a couple days ago?

Here is the spaghetti plot for Dorian right now. Overall model intensity keeps this as a Tropical Storm through the next 136 hours.

[ou48A]

You mean what was linked a couple days ago?

A lot can change in the world of weather in 2 days!
Hence the post.

[venture]

A lot can change in the world of weather in 2 days!
Hence the post.

That's why the images auto update. :-P