Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[venture]

Merry Christmas all!

As we start to get into the mode for some potential winter weather, I figured I'd come back out of the real world and make a post.

Looking at New Years Eve and Day for some winter weather in the state. Main impacts right now will be snow/sleet out west and rain central and east. Depending on the ability for the snow to change over quickly will have a huge impact, as always, on the snowfall potential to the west. Below's link to a Google map gives you an idea of where the currently thinking is.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UT...ec57f9e3fb&z=7

Right now it does not appear to be a major impact for Central Oklahoma as we will stay a bit too warm early on. When temps do fall, it does appear we will be dry slotted very quickly and cut off any precip. However, this also tends to allow freezing drizzle to develop so we may have to watch out for that.

I was pretty generous with the snowfall coverage area in relation to the mixed precip area, but you can easily move that area further west for the 31st. NE Oklahoma may be able to change over to move winter precip, but the storm will be pulling away quickly to keep things under control there.

Will update as we get closer.

Upcoming Winter Weather Opportunities:
- January 7th (Northern OK)
- January 8th (Northern OK)

[Bunty]

Welcome back--finally. Thanks a lot.

[PennyQuilts]

Hi Venture. Nice to see you. How is it looking on the 5th?

[Thunder]

Welcome back, Scottie! You were on quite a long vacation. :-)

[kevinpate]

That might produce a bit of a hit on Opening Night and its fireworks display

I hope you're right about it being NOK on the 8th. That's grand babies coming to stay a while day.

[venture]

Updated the map again this morning to remove most of the snow chances for New Year's Eve. Models were pretty consistent through yesterday with this solution, so will go with it. Will update any longer term snow chances later today.

[kevinpate]

You've got me wonderin' whether I should go ahead and reschedule an all day road trip Jan 13 to/frm Topeka.
On the one hand, decent highway all the way. On the other hand, lots of lonely stretches.

[venture]

First things first. Computer models are always wrong. The question is to what degree? It is one thing to forecast a change to much cooler weather beyond 7 days, it's another to try and forecast specific snow amounts. The complexity of the atmosphere is too great to resolve beyond a few days, and sometimes even a few hours.

Umm...duh? lol There is always a level of error in every model forecast. Which is why there is always a disclaimer on everything. Welcome to the board Capt. Obvious.

You've got me wonderin' whether I should go ahead and reschedule an all day road trip Jan 13 to/frm Topeka.
On the one hand, decent highway all the way. On the other hand, lots of lonely stretches.

It's way to early to even think of that in my opinion. If one thing, I pointing out just how rough it is to pin point an accurate forecast this far out since things bounce back and forth a lot.

[madfcstr]

Umm...duh? lol There is always a level of error in every model forecast. Which is why there is always a disclaimer on everything. Welcome to the board Capt. Obvious.

It's way to early to even think of that in my opinion. If one thing, I pointing out just how rough it is to pin point an accurate forecast this far out since things bounce back and forth a lot.

Then why do you give detailed forecasts beyond a few days?

Disclaimer? What I've seen mentioned are very detailed forecasts for specific points well beyond a reasonable time period for any computer model to "accurately" predict. Why not just run the GFS out another 2 or 3 weeks? It's well known the GFS has no appreciable skill beyond about 5 days. You might as well go with climate. I think it's incredibly irresponsible to be giving detailed forecasts beyond a few days. General trends, yes.

[venture]

Then why do you give detailed forecasts beyond a few days?

Disclaimer? What I've seen mentioned are very detailed forecasts for specific points well beyond a reasonable time period for any computer model to "accurately" predict. Why not just run the GFS out another 2 or 3 weeks? It's well known the GFS has no appreciable skill beyond about 5 days. You might as well go with climate. I think it's incredibly irresponsible to be giving detailed forecasts beyond a few days. General trends, yes.

Why forecast at all? Forecast for weather the following day or hours are busted many times. By your logic, there really isn't any point to it. I guess bitterness reigns in your little world.

I understand you are here to troll, considering you've manage to contribute 3 posts over 3 months of being here...so honestly I shouldn't give you the time of day. However, I'll play ball this once before you crawl back into your hole. Yes the outlooks I post are detailed in some aspect, but are meant only to show what the models are thinking at that certain time. If you had been around longer, which obviously you haven't been (unlike the majority of the people that participate in these monthly threads), you would see that my point is also to bring a different side to all the forecasts people see. They bitch and moan about this guy busting that, or this one calling for the end of the world...so what I do is break down several runs showing just how unstable they can be...but also how sometimes you can get a very accurate forecast 2 weeks out. However, over the period to get there the models may do a bunch of loops and u-turns until it comes back to the original solution.

Is the GFS garbage in the longer term? At times yes. Its when it starts agreeing with the ECMWF and others is when I'll start tossing it a bone. However, you are missing the point. I look at as a form of showing what could possible happen in the longer term - not what exactly would happen. Does it bother you that I've put a map or two together that you can zoom in on and get a pin point forecast? Apparently. Will those forecast maps be right? 90% of the time no. However, when that 10% happens it makes it interesting to see what was going on then to make the forecast solution and why the other times there were issues. It is also nice to have a discussion thread that tracks the trends of the forecast models to see where they start and their journey to the solution. More information that can be used down the road on how to interpret "major headline making" scenarios when they first start to appear.

Is it irresponsible to post this? No. It is my opinion, always has been, and my relaying of what that particular model run is showing. What people do with it is their own thing. I don't come here representing any organization in any official capacity, which either you wish you did or perhaps you do and are all pissy that some no name on a message board comes across better than you? Now if I worked in an official capacity and this wasn't a hobby, then yes I would be much more conservative in what I put out...but this is a discussion forum. If you want to get technical, go to Stormtrack.

With that, I'll consider this matter closed and understand your quick return to lurking on the board. You are more than welcome to contribute and provide insight instead of coming across a troll with a bruised ego and sore behind. I would also welcome you to search this board history through the years on the weather discussions we have had to understand the basis and nature of them. Coming in here on a high horse assuming that this is something that is not, is only going to make you look like more a moron than you already are.

Again, welcome to the board and feel free to jump in with your opinion or interpretation of the weather. Just understand what you are getting into before making snap judgements.

[kevinpate]

A much nicer outlook. Thanks for the head's up

[Bostonfan]

Looks like things are headed south for next week. Interested to see what Venture thinks. This from the NWS.............

NOTE THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE A 500-MB HIGH OF
AROUND 580HPA OVER ALASKA BY TUE 11 JAN. NOT A GOOD SIGN - NASTY
THINGS USUALLY HAPPEN IN TERMS OF COLD AND SNOW/ICE IN PATTERNS LIKE
THIS... NOT ONLY AROUND HERE BUT IN MANY PARTS OF THE LOWER 48. NEXT
WEEK MAY BE INTERESTING IN A NUMBER OF WAYS.

[venture]

Waiting on the evening run before I put stuff together, but in two words...Winter Arrives.

18Z GFS is crazy with the huge dumping of cold air coming in.

[Easy180]

10 day on weather.com looks nice thru the 11th...Can't remember the last time we made it that far w/o some fun stuff falling down

[Thunder]

Scottie, cold is good, but we want the serious blizzard stuff. Ya know.... Pluffy white everywhere. Cars spinnin' n grindin'. Lights flickerin' and all that. :-)

[venture]

Who the hell is Scottie? :-P

[ljbab728]

Who the hell is Scottie? :-P

I think he was the person who beamed up Captain Kirk.

[Thunder]

Who the hell is Scottie? :-P

A special nickname I have for you...for years now. :-D

[venture]

Okay, no maps just yet...ran out of time tonight. So here we go. Disclaimer as usual...also temp forecasts can get very crazy this far out when it is first major arctic outbreak of the season.

January 9th
Light to moderate ran will move in from the SW over most of OK. Temps mostly in the mid to upper 30s, but cooling down to the north. Change over to snow looks probable from North Central into Eastern Oklahoma. Very light, less than 1-2" possible. in snow. Up to a half inch of rain though from SW into SC OK. Central sections could see a dusting to an inch of snow from this. Most of the heavy snow will be east into AR & MS.

January 10th to 12th
Most precip exits except for some light flurries or light snow scattered across the state. Nothing major...maybe a half inch in some spots. Enough to hopefully brighten up the dead grass. During this period, the arctic door begins to open and highs will start to trend down. By the 12th we will be well below freezing through most of the state.

January 14th
Major push of cold air is in the Midwest and Rockies, where temps will struggle to get above zero (lets alone warmer than 10 below) in many locals. Storm system moves in from the west will bring precip early to Western OK. All precip from this point forward will likely be snow, as cold air will control all levels above us so freezing rain and ice should be very minimal - thankfully. Am totals look like around an inch or so in the western 1/3rd of the state. Light snow will continue across the entire state through the day, a general accumulation of 2-3 inches looks good.

January 15th
Storm picks up moisture from the Gulf and will have two focused areas of heavier precip. One is in the TX panhandle to NM, the other in Eastern OK to AR/MS/TN. Temps generally in the mid to upper 20s with a decent east wind early. Snow will be moderate through most of the day picking up a general area of 3-5 inches through the AM and another 1-3 inches in the PM. So generally look for a widespread healthy snowfall of 4 to 8 inches, up to 10-12 inches in far Eastern OK and up to 10" in far SW OK. Wind doesn't appear to be an issue though, basically 10 to 20 mph...with the higher gusts in the PM out of the north.

January 16th
Light snow will continue as a major snow storm blasts the eastern 1/3rd of the country. Maybe a very light 1/2 inch of snow possible early. Otherwise, the coldest air arrives finally. If this verifies, temps will range morning lows of 5-10 below in NW OK to 5 to 10 above in SE OK. Afternoon "highs" will range from Zero in southern OK to 10 below in NE OK.

January 17th
Coldest night we've probably seen in awhile if this happens. Likely a clear night with a fresh snow pack. Morning lows will be 5 below to Zero in the south to 15 to 20 below Central and North. Now, I personally don't buy this...but it could happen. The GFS is hinting at some areas getting closer to 30 below. Something like that hasn't been seen since the state set the all time low record of 27 below on...well how about that...January 18th (off by a day) 1930. If this even gets close to verifying, this could be very bad news for the area as houses around here definitely aren't built for this type of cold and the electric meters are going to be spinning like mad. Afternoon highs look to be from the balmy upper teens in the west to 5 to 10 below zero in the east.

January 18th
Temps rebound some. WARM FRONT! Still clear and dry. Lows from 5 to 10...ABOVE! in the south to 5 to 10 below in the North and Northeast. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the upper teens to mid 20s throughout the state. Get out the shorts.

Again, long range models love to get crazy with cold air...so these temps will likely be modified a bunch, but it looks like we have a cold January on the way.

[venture]

Morning Discussion from OUN...

MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.

[Thunder]

GFS are well known to hit it head on and '09 Christmas showed that.

[bandnerd]

So...when temperatures get that cold, what do you do about pipes? Guess I might invest in some sort of insulation for outside faucets...

[venture]

So...when temperatures get that cold, what do you do about pipes? Guess I might invest in some sort of insulation for outside faucets...

There are foam covers you can get for outside faucets. Depending on where the pipes in your home run, if temps ever get that cold, leaving them drop slightly helps to ensure they won't freeze up. Hopefully it is just GFS having an "OH GOD" moment and will become more reasonable. Otherwise, we'd see a lot of broken water pipes, electric grip strain, and a toll on human life from a different element we aren't use to.

[venture]

Morning GFS run backed away from the insane frigid numbers, but looks like an extended period of below freezing weather is on the way for most of the country. Snowfall amounts are also cut down a ton, so this probably goes hand in hand. Of course, we are talking almost 2 weeks out...this is going to flip flop 34 times between now and then.

[Thunder]

Scottie, you make it funny when you implied that the GFS is actually a living being. A life form. :-)

As for everyone with fish tanks, aquariums, and all those fishies... I have started a topic on our Oklahoma Aquarium Association's forum to list the precautions we should be doing to be prepared for the upcoming outbreak. The topic is here >>> http://www.theokaa.org/vb40/showthre...Winter-Weather <<< as I had kick-started it and more people will post to add in their suggestions/plans.

Also, keep in mind of our furry children outside and the oldie humans.