January '10 Weather Discussion

[venture]

Happy New Year...now on to weather continued from our December thread: http://www.okctalk.com/current-event...iscussion.html

Where amounts are started, please remember these are estimates based off of a 1" to 0.1"...snow to rain ratio. Snowfall amount predictions more than 24 hours out are extremely low confidence numbers and will change. However, this is to give an idea of what is coming up.

New Years Day: North Texas system will leave roughly 1-3" amounts in Southern OK and higher amounts approaching 5-8" in North Texas.

Starting January 4th, appears to be a slight warm up beginning as a major Nor'easter takes on the east coast. The next approaching system will be moving in.

January 5th: Light rain will fall across the state, with a mix on the OK/KS border.

January 6th: Colder air starts to move back in and should change the rain over to snow in the northern half of OK. Accumulations should be light. Depending on change over, should be less than 2" of snow. Light snow/Flurries will continue throughout the rest of the day.

January 8-10th: Major movement of arctic air plunges in across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. This will put us in a NW Flow, so we might see some impulses moving in bring some episodes of light snow.

Currently, no major storm systems showing up...but it is insane to try to say whats going to happen 15 days out, but this is an early (though inaccurate i'm sure) look.

[Thunder]

Just making a post so this can be in my Subscribed list.

[venture]

Updated with tonight's run...confidence low considering how some things have already changed quickly. All precip amounts will be in liquid equivalent, so if there is any snow, you can typically use a 1" of liquid = 10" of snow. Keep in mind, GFS has a history of overplaying systems as the time frame goes out farther and has been staying relatively too cool lately.

New Years Day: Dry. Previous clipper system GFS picked up on in North Texas dies out over W OK leaving a dusting.

Jan 2 through 4th - Dry and quiet.

January 5th: GFS now pushed colder air south with the next system. Light snow will start late on the 5th, but pick up as we move into evening. Right now, precip amounts are up to 1/2 inch across the western 2/3rd of Oklahoma...with amounts up to a quarter inch elsewhere.

January 6th: System continues south into TX/LA, with some light snow left over Central & Southern OK. Maybe up to 1/4th inch of precip.

January 8-9th: Major movement of arctic air plunges in across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. This will put us in a NW Flow, so we might see some impulses moving in bring some episodes of light snow.

January 10th: Strong impulse moves SE with NW flow. Indications are it should be cold enough for snow. Precip amounts will be around a quarter in in NW and Central OK starting very early on the 10th (maybe even evening on 9th). Through the day on the 10th...another 1/2 to 1 inch of precip is expected across OK, with heavier amounts SE.

January 11th: Flurries/Light Snow remains. There is indications of extremely cold air coming in around this date, so we'll need watch.

[westsidesooner]

Storm system seems to be picking up some moisture from the tropics......not that I think that will make for more snow than forecast, but with this winter you never knoe. Official forecast still call for only 1-2" but remmeber that will make it hard to see any icy spots already on the road by tomorrow night.

Satellite image(s) [US, wv]


http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend.png

[Thunder]

Storm system seems to be picking up some moisture from the tropics......not that I think that will make for more snow than forecast, but with this winter you never knoe. Official forecast still call for only 1-2" but remmeber that will make it hard to see any icy spots already on the road by tomorrow night.

Satellite image(s) [US, wv]


http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend.png

This thread is for next year. The other thread is the suitable one for now. :-P

[westsidesooner]

This thread is for next year. The other thread is the suitable one for now. :-P

I stand corrected and laughed out loud at.

[westsidesooner]

January 8-9th: Major movement of arctic air plunges in across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. This will put us in a NW Flow, so we might see some impulses moving in bring some episodes of light snow.

January 10th: Strong impulse moves SE with NW flow. Indications are it should be cold enough for snow. Precip amounts will be around a quarter in in NW and Central OK starting very early on the 10th (maybe even evening on 9th). Through the day on the 10th...another 1/2 to 1 inch of precip is expected across OK, with heavier amounts SE.

January 11th: Flurries/Light Snow remains. There is indications of extremely cold air coming in around this date, so we'll need watch.

Trying to get back on topic (January). Last night on the channel 9 late news the meteoroligist said there may be another "major winter storm" somewhere around the 9th or 10th. You indicated as much in your earlier post. You mentioned 1/4" precip on the 9th with an additional 1/2" to 1" of precip on the 10th. Is that still your thinking, and are the precip totals you mentioned liquid equivalent....meaning lots of snow, or a major ice event? Also are there any models you could point me to that would verify this upcoming event. Thx.

At this rate (current cold temps) we'll still have some snow on the ground from the Christmas eve blizzard on the 9-10th time frame. Interesting winter so far.

[venture]

Models yesterday drove the system much farther south and east. Today, the 18Z run had some back in Eastern OK but we'll be above freezing so right now it might just be rain.

[venture]

GFS tonight is showing a significant snow event around the 8th-9th again. We'll see how it ends up. Right now its a 5-10" type setup...but nothing like last week with a storm setup. The setup really has me pretty suspect right now, so we'll just have to see how it plays.

[Thunder]

Weather Blog

For anyone wanting daily updates.

Venture, where are you?

[venture]

Enjoying time away from the computer. LOL

Like it has been advertised, it'll be cold the next week or so. Any precip is going to be light as it looks right now. The models were bouncing back and forth, so wanted to give them a couple days to settle down. They've been consistent in very light accumulations through the next 2 weeks.

[Bunty]

This map isn't encouraging with heavy snow in the forecast for the northern half of Oklahoma.

[Thunder]

Hmmm... Heavy Snow. I'm starting to like this graphic.

[venture]

Things are flopping back and forth, but model runs today continue with a mostly dry outlook. Norman is going with the drier solution since models are lining up, but remaining cautious due to the instability in the models. Right now, I don't see a lot happen unless we get a good fetch of moisture to work in with the cold air coming down.

CONCERNING PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND THE MID WEEK FRONT... THE
LATEST GFS RUN IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY COMPARED TO ITS PRIOR RUN. THE CURRENT RUN SHOWS A
DRIER AIRMASS AND A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION...
WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THUS THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS... BUT WILL SEE HOW WELL SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HANG
WITH THIS SOLUTION.

[westsidesooner]

I like the graphic too Thunder, but I don't really see what they're seeing. As Venture mentioned the last few model runs have shown less snow for central Oklahoma. I'd love to see more snow now that Christmas is over.....just driving around the last week or so reminded me alot of all the winters I spent in Breckenridge with the snow piled up beside the roads. I'd really like a fresh batch of snow to cover up all the grimy piles around town.

The models show less than an inch for okc over the next week....which is down from the 2-3 they were showing. I guess we'll see in a few days.

Check out the NAM and GFS snowfall models on Earls page. (2nd and 3rd links from top of page)

Earl Barker's Model Page

Whatever happens it beats ICE

[drum4no1]

You guys are loco

The quicker winter goes the better for me. I dislike snow and cold

[westsidesooner]

You guys are loco

The quicker winter goes the better for me. I dislike snow and cold

That may be true.....lol

Don't get me wrong, I'm ready for spring. In fact I think I'm solar powered. I can't wait til the snow melts to see if the daffodils are starting to poke thier lil heads up outta the ground...which they usually do sometime in January. They'll be in for a rude awakening if they do that this year. But as long as it's winter....and its going to be cold I like the snow as opposed to the ugly dead yellow grass. I just wish there was a hill/mountain close enough to go skiing on. I miss that.

[ronronnie1]

You guys are loco

The quicker winter goes the better for me. I dislike snow and cold

Amen. I was over this snow before even the first flake fell from the sky. Wake me when it's June.

[kevinpate]

Contemplating whether to make dinner reservations for Friday or not in OKC.
There are enough places to eat locally if it's slick or uglier, but there are also two places in OKC I've been meaning to try.

[venture]

What Westside said. I grew up in the cold, so it doesn't bother me. What does get me is when it is cold and just dead looking outside. The snow at least brightens it up a bit and makes it look more pleasant. If we have to deal with the cold, might as well get some snow on the ground.

[drum4no1]

A cold and sunny day is much better than cold and dreary.

At least this year the ice has been low

[venture]

Yes thankfully. I hate ice storms...but give me a good ol' snow storm any day.

[Bostonfan]

Spring can't get here quick enough.

[venture]

Models in good agreement for Weds/Thurs on a general area of very light snow across the state. Some areas may see up to an inch, many won't see more than a flurry. Cold air is the story this week.

Extended...
Jan 12th, may see an area of precip across the state. Light amounts in Western OK, up to a quarter of an inch of liquid in central and up to a half inch eastern. Freezing line will roughly be I-40 and north. So Northern 1/3rd will likely be snow, Central 1/3rd will be a rain/snow mix - with a chance of icing in eastern sections, and Southern 1/3rd should be just a cold rain.

January 14th, another wave comes through. Up to a quarter of an inch of liquid for Central & Western OK, less than that eastern OK. This one may be trickier. 850MB (3000 ft or so) freezing line will be at the OK/KS border, with the surface freezing like running generally from Woodward to OK to McAlester. Near this line, a rain/freezing rain mix will be possible. North of the line freezing rain to a freezing rain/snow mix at the KS border. South of the line will be a cold rain.

Jan 15 to 16th - Drizzle will continue across the state with surface temps staying above freezing. Light to moderate rain will remain a chance in Eastern OK. By Friday evening on the 15th, upper air temps will cool below freezing down to the OK/TX border so this may allow for Eastern 1/3rd of OK to pick up a couple inches of wet snow. System will then pull out to the NE.

Jan 19th into 20th - Light to moderate rain across the state, heavier east...lightest west. Temps in the 40s.

[PennyQuilts]

I was driving, today, and the radio announced that, "Cold air will be moving into the area Wednesday night..."

HELLO??