Severe Weather Discussion - August 10 through ??

[venture]

Risk of isolated severe as we transition in an out of the NW flow pattern for awhile here. Won't put any specific end date on this.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 435 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF FAYETTEVILLE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 694...WW 695...WW 696...

DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF SURFACE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NRN OK LATE TODAY IS ALREADY
FUELING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE DOWNDRAFT-CAPE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DOWNBURSTS...WITH 20-30 KT WLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTING SOME
ORGANIZATION INTO LINES OR SLOW MOVING CLUSTERS. WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28015.

[venture]

[Thunder]

Oklahoma is quite lucky this year.

[Karried]

I am in absolute disbelief about this.. we are having a swimming pool installed.. and of course, every rain drop sets up back a week. ugh. I'm so bummed. On the upside, I like the cooler weather, like the rain for our crops and state but on the other hand, I just can't fathom why the one year we decided to do major landscaping project, it practically rains all summer long. Well, it could be worse.. I'm just an impatient person.

[possumfritter]

Karried,

Better a litttle rain for the crops and the landscaping instead of a drought. Have you see what has happened with the lakes in southern most Texas? It is just horrific down that way.

Let us know when the pool is ready...I smell a pool party for OKCTalk!! :-)

[venture]

Karrie /hugs. I know how you feel. LOL

On the need for water though...some definite good news today. First graphic is the ground water index and how much moisture is in the top several inches. The second graphic is the rain in the last 24 hours. The areas in the most need seem to be lining up pretty well with those getting raid today.

[venture]

Next line of storms continues to intensify as it moves into the Metro. Hail will be minimal it seems right now, unless a few cells get some good development going. Strong winds main threat and lightning. Outflow boundary is ahead of the line anywhere from 1-2 miles to as many as 10 miles - just depending on where you are. Gusts to 50 mph are easily doable right now.

[venture]

Slight risk today is north of a line from just south of Erick to Hobart to Anadarko to Norman to Shawnee to Henryetta to north of Sallisaw.

Some gusty winds and hail are the severe threats. Main threat though is going to be extremely heavy, flooding rain in areas where storms will train or stall. Flash flood watch is now up for areas of Oklahoma North of I-40 and along and west of I-35...including the Northern half of the OKC metro area (Cleveland/McClain/Pott aren't included).

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171959Z - 172130Z

CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN
OK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING SEVERE THREAT -- ONE
WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEGMENT OF THE APPARENT SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED SWWD INTO NERN NM...WHILE THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT/OUTFLOW CONGLOMERATE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS OK ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THEN TURNS WNWWD INTO THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE.

NEAR THIS BOUNDARY -- ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND
INTO NWRN OK AND VICINITY...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS
UNDERWAY...WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED BY
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SWRN KS AND SPREAD ENEWD WITH THE MEAN WIND...NEW TCU/CB
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY FROM WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
NEWD INTO NWRN OK.

STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS KS.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS/ESELYS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION
VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 30 KT AT MID
LEVELS...RESULTANT SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL/WEAK
SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND A
CORRESPONDING/ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CONVECTION...DEGREE OF
ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE WW
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 08/17/2009

[venture]

Slight risk area has been redone a bit. Slight risk is now north and west of a line from Vinson to Mangum to Elgin to Wayne to just north of Ada to Holdenville to Okmulgee to Sapulpa to Bernsdall to the KS border.



...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS EACH INDICATE WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY-AFTERNOON CONVECTION...EXTENDING SWWD FROM AFOREMENTIONED OZARKS ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME E-CENTRAL OK...THEN ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 WWD THROUGH OKC AREA...THEN WNWWD TOWARD GAG. SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SNL-OKC-GAG HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...AND REMAINDER ERN OK SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY SHOULD DO LIKEWISE DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
SFC-BASED EVOLUTION/DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON S OF BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 50-75 NM TO ITS N.
MOST FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE...LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY IN SUPPORT OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE IN CORRIDOR VERY NEAR BOUNDARY OVER PANHANDLES AND NW OK.
UPSCALE EVOLUTION TO OVERNIGHT MCS STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER REGION. BEYOND THAT...ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN KS...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ATOP RELATIVELY DEEP/STABLE OUTFLOW POOL.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF AMARILLO TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ENID OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR AMA ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER TO THE ENE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE AS SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES. OTHER STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NW OK. VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...ALONG THE N EDGE OF THE STRONGER SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29015.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
622 pm cdt mon aug 17 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Blaine county in northwest oklahoma...
Eastern dewey county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 730 pm cdt

* at 622 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 5 miles northwest of watonga...moving northeast
at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include canton lake...canton...eagle
city...hitchcock...homestead...hucmac...longdale.. .oakwood...
Okeene...putnam...southard...taloga and watonga.

[venture]

Watch county notification for watch 708
national weather service norman ok
745 pm cdt mon aug 17 2009

okc071-083-103-109-149-180300-
/o.exa.koun.sv.a.0708.000000t0000z-090818t0300z/

the national weather service has extended severe thunderstorm
watch 708 to include the following areas until 10 pm cdt this
evening

in oklahoma this watch includes 5 counties

in central oklahoma

logan oklahoma

in northern oklahoma

kay noble

in western oklahoma

wa****a

this includes the cities of...cordell...guthrie...oklahoma city...
Perry and ponca city.

[venture]

Decent rotation develop in the storm Blaine County moving into NW Canadian. Area of rotation is just to the NW side of Geary. Hail to almost 2 inches is also indicated in the area.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WRN/NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708...

VALID 180134Z - 180230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708
CONTINUES.

MCS IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...INTO WCNTRL OK. IT APPEARS A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALTER FORWARD
PROPAGATION COMPONENT...HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION AND IS DRIVING LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY
30KT ACROSS CUSTER/BECKHAM COUNTIES IN OK. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN
EXHIBITED A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STORM
MAINTENANCE...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. GIVEN
THAT THE LLJ WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE...IT APPEARS STORM-SCALE PROCESSES...NAMELY
OUTFLOW...WILL STEER MCS ACROSS WRN/NRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG/SEVERE...A
LOCAL EXTENSION TO WW708 MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION.

FARTHER WEST...LONG LIVED SUPERCELL CONTINUES DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH DALLAM INTO SHERMAN COUNTY. WITH LLJ
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM ATOP COOLER RAIN-COOLED
AIRMASS...IT WOULD SEEM ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS STRONG STORM. AS ACROSS CNTRL OK...A LOCAL
EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE.

..DARROW.. 08/18/2009

[Thunder]

I lol'ed when I saw the word, rotation. Venture, you're gonna freak Karrie out for real.

I find it interesting that part of storm with rotation is not moving much at all while the rest to the west is pushing into it.

[venture]

That cell with the rotation was ahead of the main complex. It is being overtaken now, and everything is outflow dominate.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
931 pm cdt mon aug 17 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northern grady county in central oklahoma...
Kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Blaine county in northwest oklahoma...
Northern caddo county in southwest oklahoma...

* until 1045 pm cdt

* at 931 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles north of
geary to albert to 6 miles west of fort cobb...moving east at 30
mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include albert...alfalfa...amber...
Anadarko...binger...bridge creek...bridgeport...calumet...canton
lake...canton...cashion...cedar lake...chickasha...cogar...
Concho...dover...eagle city...eakly...el reno...fort cobb
reservoir...fort cobb...geary...gracemont...greenfield...
Hennessey...hinton...hitchcock...homestead...hydro ...kingfisher...
Lacey...lake chickasha...longdale...lookeba...loyal...middleber g...
Minco...mustang...okarche...okeene...omega...piedm ont...pocasset...
Richland...southard...tabler...tuttle...union city...verden...
Watonga...western oklahoma city and yukon.

[venture]

Extreme rotation or wind now showing up ESE of Bridgeport at I-40 and US 281.

[venture]

Looks like the complex is organizing and developing a comma head type area of rotation...which is the area that has been mentioned.

[venture]

Watch county notification for watch 708
national weather service norman ok
948 pm cdt mon aug 17 2009

okc027-051-081-087-119-125-180600-
/o.exb.koun.sv.a.0708.000000t0000z-090818t0600z/

the national weather service has extended severe thunderstorm
watch 708 to include the following areas until 1 am cdt tuesday

in oklahoma this watch includes 6 counties

in central oklahoma

cleveland grady lincoln
mcclain payne pottawatomie

this includes the cities of...chandler...chickasha...moore...
Norman...purcell...shawnee and stillwater.

[venture]

El Reno report of winds around 50 mph with a semi blown over on I-40.

[Bunty]

From mesonet it looks like much of Oklahoma from the west central extending east northeast to Osage County got around 2 or more inches of rain last night.

[westsidesooner]

Our gauge showed about 1.5 on the westside. The metro mesonet sites show between 4 and 8 inches over the last 30 days. How awesome is that!!!! I love the fact that its so green in the mddle of August. Its usually dead brown and depressing by this point of the summer. Not to mention the wildfire potential not being a big problem this summer. We should all be thankful....

I hereby petition to have my screenname here changed to the "stormkiller".
When news reports and velocity radar started showing 70-80 mph winds in western canadian county heading for the metro I started stromproofing the yard. Putting cars in the garage, taking down all the glass and shell lanterns, taking down the patio umbrella, moving the heavy ass chimenea under the roofline. EVERYtme I do that in preperation for a storm I kill it. Our peak gust was probably 35. lol On the bright side we still have power.

[jstanthrnme]

I could be wrong about this, but a wet summer (like this) followed by a cool dry period with nightime temps just above freezing should give us some good fall colors come late mid/late October.