May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[C_M_25]

I wonder if the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon after this mornings round of storms?

[SoonerDave]

I wonder if the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon after this mornings round of storms?

The other question is whether these storms will create an outflow boundary for other convection.

What a goofy setup

[C_M_25]

The models are in a bit of disagreement currently. Some are showing that the atmosphere can recharge and give a nice wave of storms in south central ok and others are showing just a general pattern of rain with some thunder possible. Either way, doesn’t look like tonight will impact the northern sides of okc. Then again, not sure how solid these models have been this spring so we’ll just have to see.

[C_M_25]

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

[Crisko]

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

I'm just an observer and not a meteorologist by any means, but can someone tell me why the dewpoint in Garden City, Kansas is only 56 and they are under a tornado watch? Does actual temperature of 81 play a bigger role than the dewpoint? Ours is 60 and hopefully you are right about us getting any.

[SEMIweather]

I'm just an observer and not a meteorologist by any means, but can someone tell me why the dewpoint in Garden City, Kansas is only 56 and they are under a tornado watch? Does actual temperature of 81 play a bigger role than the dewpoint? Ours is 60 and hopefully you are right about us getting any.

Garden City is much closer to the intersection of the surface low, dryline, and warm front which will likely provide enough forcing for at least isolated convection up there. As far as OKC is concerned, the dryline has retreated west compared to yesterday and this morning's storms also stabilized our atmosphere. Both of these factors mean that unlike yesterday, there is a very low chance of convective initiation in Oklahoma today, though we will likely see a complex of gradually weakening storms propagate into the state from the Texas Panhandle overnight..

[Bunty]

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

Stillwater is on the northern fringes of the system as of 3:45 am and might get a few hundreds of an inch of rain besides just the current sprinkles. If no more than just sprinkles, then the wind is sure blowing. The wind is a lot easier to count on.

[Video Expert]

Currently observing Stratocumulus Radiatus clouds in the South Metro which tells me the airmass is relatively stable at this time. So any high end severe will most likely remain in the Texas Panhandle and far Western Oklahoma.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has outlined 15% probability of severe storms for this coming Monday evening.

[yukong]

Some storms are trying to fire off SW of the metro.

[yukong]

And already falling apart.

[kukblue1]

The Monday Hype train has taken off and it's only Thursday. SMH

[unfundedrick]

The Monday Hype train has taken off and it's only Thursday. SMH

I'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike Morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Monday with nothing severe.

[kukblue1]

I'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike Morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Monday with nothing severe.

Look Harder. Based off one model run for a system 4 days out. I call that hype. https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1786187236930699698

[unfundedrick]

Look Harder. Based off one model run for a system 4 days out. I call that hype. https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1786187236930699698

That comment by Morgan was made after you made your comment. This was his 6:15PM forecast and note that he said 20 to 30 percent chance of rain and no mention of severe weather on Monday.


https://kfor.com/video/mike-morgans-...ecast/9660621/

[unfundedrick]

i'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on monday with nothing severe.

nm

[kukblue1]

Friday morning looks like a Strong cap might be in place for most of Oklahoma on Monday SPC has upped the risk for Kansas area which I agree with as of now. I'm sure it will change but might have a Cap to deal with

[SEMIweather]

Monday looks like a very volatile environment but I suspect that much of the convection will end up occurring north of the KS/OK border. Certainly still worth keeping an eye on, especially because I do tend to favor the wave that marks the end of a lengthy active pattern. Which…after Monday, we finally look to quiet down for at least a few days. Between now and Monday, possibly a round or two of elevated storms, most likely around sunrise tomorrow and/or Sunday. But details are murky and the severe threat looks to be limited to marginal hail/wind in any case.

[SEMIweather]

Complex of elevated storms is looking to make a run towards at least the west Metro over the next hour or two. Marginally severe hail should be the main threat.

[SEMIweather]

Storms appear to be weakening but still a nonzero threat of marginally severe hail; highest from Tuttle up into Mustang and Yukon at the moment.

[SEMIweather]

Storms are now weakening more rapidly and the hail threat appears to be over.

[NikonNurse]

It just died…like poof! Within a 5 mile push! ����*♀️

[kukblue1]

Monday could be BIG. I say could be. Even the NWS said "The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and
north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent
will tend to remain across the central Plains."

That all being said it only takes one or two storms to do a lot of damage. Stay weather aware. We should know a lot more tonight/tomorrow morning when the short range models come into play.

[kukblue1]

Day to moderate risk out for most of Western Oklahoma. How strong will the cap be? Are we looking at outbreak or we looking at just one or two storms? I'm leaning towards only a few storms right now as of Sunday morning however it only takes one storm look at what happened down in Sulphur

[SoonerDave]

I have to admit the forecast plus ENH risk confuses me some, and I'm sure it's due to my own ignorance . To me, the forecast text still suggests the better severe environment is in NC Kansas, but then says something to the effect of if supercells form, they have a greater chance of being *more* intense or possibly tornadic - with that risk increasing into E. OK into the evening?

As I said, the forecast seems to say two things that aren't *entirely* contradictory, but perhaps arguably "hedging" even amid the ENH risk area, which is in *Western* OK. If Anon or Semi or whomever could clarify or smooth out that language it might be helpful.