U.S. Natural Gas Supplies

[bucktalk]

Not long ago the US had an abundant supply of natural gas and thus the price fell. I'm wondering, however, the massive amount of cold which has gripped the Northeast and Midwest over the past several weeks and the usage of natural gas for heat will have any impact on our natural gas supplies and thus create more opportunity for Oklahoma for future drilling.

Anyone have some insight regarding this?

[Zuplar]

A good friend of mine lives in St Germain WI, which is practically Canada (I joke with her all the time) and she said yesterday propane prices reached $5 a gallon yesterday. They have such a shortage they won't sell more than 200 gallons to people.

[ctchandler]

Zuplar,
Wow, the last time I bought propane it was 75 cents. Of course that was in the mid to late 90's. We were lucky, ONG needed to run lines through our neighborhood to the high rent district so they offered us service. Cost me about two grand to run it 300 feet to the house and convert everything but obviously, it was well worth it.
C. T.

A good friend of mine lives in St Germain WI, which is practically Canada (I joke with her all the time) and she said yesterday propane prices reached $5 a gallon yesterday. They have such a shortage they won't sell more than 200 gallons to people.

[venture]

I guess the drillers (like Chesapeake) who wanted product cut back are getting what they want. The excess stock is getting cleared out, prices will go up, and they'll be able to maintain the higher levels.

[adaniel]

Actually...

Natural gas price spikes, topping $5 for 1st time since 2010

[Zuplar]

So I called yesterday to check, $3.40 at my provider, last time I paid $1.65. Others I've heard around here are $5.35. That's ridiculous. Even at $3.40 I can't afford to heat my house. That's double the price. Luckily I have a large tank, so I bought ahead of time, but still no matter what I'm going to have to buy in about a month. I just hope that this crap has leveled out, because there is no reason for it to double and in some accounts triple. It's straight up price gouging. Makes me want to convert to a heat pump.

[Servicetech571]

So I called yesterday to check, $3.40 at my provider, last time I paid $1.65. Others I've heard around here are $5.35. That's ridiculous. Even at $3.40 I can't afford to heat my house. That's double the price. Luckily I have a large tank, so I bought ahead of time, but still no matter what I'm going to have to buy in about a month. I just hope that this crap has leveled out, because there is no reason for it to double and in some accounts triple. It's straight up price gouging. Makes me want to convert to a heat pump.

Have you considered a Dual Fuel setup? You could switch bewteen heat pump and propane based on the price of each fuel and outdoor tempature. Use the the heat pump in moderate weather then switch to propane when it isn't cost effective to run the heat pump. Most newer Dual Fuel thermostats can handle the switchover automatically based on the tempature you select.

[Zuplar]

Have you considered a Dual Fuel setup? You could switch bewteen heat pump and propane based on the price of each fuel and outdoor tempature. Use the the heat pump in moderate weather then switch to propane when it isn't cost effective to run the heat pump. Most newer Dual Fuel thermostats can handle the switchover automatically based on the tempature you select.

I've actually thought about this. Everyone where I live is total electric other than me. I'm not big on propane, cause honestly I don't want to keep up with remembering to fill the tank. Luckily I have a 1000 gallon tank so really I only have to fill it up a couple of times. Of course with prices the way they are I'm holding out as long as possible and probably going to buy the minimum unless prices go down.

My house is 7 years old. I would be very interested in switching to a duel fuel setup with heat pump and propane backup. I don't want to get rid of the propane all together as I have it for water heater and cooking. I feel like the the duel fuel is really the best of both worlds cause like you said you get to pick based on temps and prices. I'm just not sure the cost. Anyone have an idea? I feel like I'd basically only have to swap the outside unit. Obviously there is a bit more work but I feel like it would be pretty easy.

[Servicetech571]

I've actually thought about this. Everyone where I live is total electric other than me. I'm not big on propane, cause honestly I don't want to keep up with remembering to fill the tank. Luckily I have a 1000 gallon tank so really I only have to fill it up a couple of times. Of course with prices the way they are I'm holding out as long as possible and probably going to buy the minimum unless prices go down.

My house is 7 years old. I would be very interested in switching to a duel fuel setup with heat pump and propane backup. I don't want to get rid of the propane all together as I have it for water heater and cooking. I feel like the the duel fuel is really the best of both worlds cause like you said you get to pick based on temps and prices. I'm just not sure the cost. Anyone have an idea? I feel like I'd basically only have to swap the outside unit. Obviously there is a bit more work but I feel like it would be pretty easy.

You would have to replace the Outdoor Unit and the A-coil for optimum efficiency. Also you would need a thermostat that can run a DF system or a add a HP kit. The free OG+E thermostats are DF compatible, but you have to sign up for Smarthours to get one. An outdoor temp sensor will need to be added for the thermostat to see the outdoor temp to determine switchover. Ecobee, Emerson, and Honeywell also offer DF compatible thermostats for about $200 or so.

Installed cost is probably going to be $3k - $4k for outdoor unit and indoor coil depending on size and how difficult the install is.

[Zuplar]

Are you paying $400 per MONTH or fill-up?

That would be per month, but again that's with propane prices being $1.75ish. If I have to pay the $3.40 it will be over $700 a month, just for propane. That doesn't include my electric bill.

You would have to replace the Outdoor Unit and the A-coil for optimum efficiency. Also you would need a thermostat that can run a DF system or a add a HP kit. The free OG+E thermostats are DF compatible, but you have to sign up for Smarthours to get one. An outdoor temp sensor will need to be added for the thermostat to see the outdoor temp to determine switchover. Ecobee, Emerson, and Honeywell also offer DF compatible thermostats for about $200 or so.

Installed cost is probably going to be $3k - $4k for outdoor unit and indoor coil depending on size and how difficult the install is.

I do have OGE and I have smart hours and their free thermostat. I was really hoping it would be under $2k. I think it would take awhile to recoup the money. Of course if propane prices don't go below $2, then I may not have a choice.

[mugofbeer]

Market pricing is not simply a matter of national abundance but also a matter of the distribution channels. Nationally, there is plenty of supply but with such a cold snap across the most populous regions of the country, the channel is strained and prices are rising. Once warmer weather comes, the prices will drop back.

[stick47]

Imagine much of Zuplars' energy choice will be dependent on the age of his current system. If it's getting close to replacement time I'd advise installing a 15 or higher SEER heat pump and upgrading to a heat pump water heater. (mine costs less to operate than a NG WH) Also add insulation to the attic. Using those choices plus low E windows it's easily possible to heat & cool a 2200 sf home for > $125/mo. (that's been our average over the 30 months we've lived here)

[Zuplar]

Imagine much of Zuplars' energy choice will be dependent on the age of his current system. If it's getting close to replacement time I'd advise installing a 15 or higher SEER heat pump and upgrading to a heat pump water heater. (mine costs less to operate than a NG WH) Also add insulation to the attic. Using those choices plus low E windows it's easily possible to heat & cool a 2200 sf home for > $125/mo. (that's been our average over the 30 months we've lived here)

My house is 7 years old so I have a lot of upgrades. I do need to add some insulation, but with current propane prices it's costing $400 just in propane, and that's a 2100 square foot house. I know my neighbors with electric only it's costing them about $250 to $300. I'm not wanting to swap all my stuff over and I'd really like to keep the propane for some things. That's not to say when the time comes to replace the water heater I wouldn't be interested in changing it, but we enjoy being able to cook on gas. And realistically for the 6 months I don't heat, we use about 50 gallons of propane to heat water and cook. Since I'm not paying a monthly gas bill that makes that extremely cheap.

[Servicetech571]

My house is 7 years old so I have a lot of upgrades. I do need to add some insulation, but with current propane prices it's costing $400 just in propane, and that's a 2100 square foot house. I know my neighbors with electric only it's costing them about $250 to $300. I'm not wanting to swap all my stuff over and I'd really like to keep the propane for some things. That's not to say when the time comes to replace the water heater I wouldn't be interested in changing it, but we enjoy being able to cook on gas. And realistically for the 6 months I don't heat, we use about 50 gallons of propane to heat water and cook. Since I'm not paying a monthly gas bill that makes that extremely cheap.

Are you paying $400 per MONTH or fill-up?

[Servicetech571]

Imagine much of Zuplars' energy choice will be dependent on the age of his current system. If it's getting close to replacement time I'd advise installing a 15 or higher SEER heat pump and upgrading to a heat pump water heater. (mine costs less to operate than a NG WH) Also add insulation to the attic. Using those choices plus low E windows it's easily possible to heat & cool a 2200 sf home for > $125/mo. (that's been our average over the 30 months we've lived here)

I'd like to see the numbers on this. I couldn't get the math to work, NG was too cheap when I ran my calculations.
Is your home all electric?
If not, are you on Plan A or Plan B for NG?
What are your annual NG/Electric costs?
If you are an OG+E customer you can check annual electric use at www.myogepower.com and click the "how can I save" tab.

[stick47]

NG Water Heater = $282/yr
GE 50 gal. Tall 6 Year 38,000 BTU Natural Gas Water Heater-GG50T06AVH00 at The Home Depot


Hybrid Water Heater = $215 yr (mine is a GE and actually the enregy lable says $198/yr)
Rheem EcoSense 50 gal. Tall 12 Year Hybrid Electric Water Heater with Heat Pump Technology-HB50ES at The Home Depot

Yes we're all electric tho the fireplace can run off an 80 gallon propane tank in case of emergencies.

I totaled the electric bills from move in date in Sept 2011 through Dec 2013 and the avg came to $124/mo.
and that was skewed a little bit b/c we only had R30 attic insulation until Jan 2012. We upped it to R50 after the Dec bill.

I'd like to see the numbers on this. I couldn't get the math to work, NG was too cheap when I ran my calculations.
Is your home all electric?
If not, are you on Plan A or Plan B for NG?
What are your annual NG/Electric costs?
If you are an OG+E customer you can check annual electric use at www.myogepower.com and click the "how can I save" tab.

[Zuplar]

NG Water Heater = $282/yr
GE 50 gal. Tall 6 Year 38,000 BTU Natural Gas Water Heater-GG50T06AVH00 at The Home Depot


Hybrid Water Heater = $215 yr (mine is a GE and actually the enregy lable says $198/yr)
Rheem EcoSense 50 gal. Tall 12 Year Hybrid Electric Water Heater with Heat Pump Technology-HB50ES at The Home Depot

Yes we're all electric tho the fireplace can run off an 80 gallon propane tank in case of emergencies.

I totaled the electric bills from move in date in Sept 2011 through Dec 2013 and the avg came to $124/mo.
and that was skewed a little bit b/c we only had R30 attic insulation until Jan 2012. We upped it to R50 after the Dec bill.

If you don't mind me asking what did it cost to get the attic re insulated? I'm thinking that might really help me out.

[stick47]

If you don't mind me asking what did it cost to get the attic re insulated? I'm thinking that might really help me out.

Builder had R30 installed and when we upped it to R50 it cost $1,000. Or if you buy the insulation at Lowes they'll loan you the machine to blow it in for free.

[Servicetech571]

NG Water Heater = $282/yr
GE 50 gal. Tall 6 Year 38,000 BTU Natural Gas Water Heater-GG50T06AVH00 at The Home Depot


Hybrid Water Heater = $215 yr (mine is a GE and actually the enregy lable says $198/yr)
Rheem EcoSense 50 gal. Tall 12 Year Hybrid Electric Water Heater with Heat Pump Technology-HB50ES at The Home Depot

Yes we're all electric tho the fireplace can run off an 80 gallon propane tank in case of emergencies.

I totaled the electric bills from move in date in Sept 2011 through Dec 2013 and the avg came to $124/mo.
and that was skewed a little bit b/c we only had R30 attic insulation until Jan 2012. We upped it to R50 after the Dec bill.

Makes sense, you were using national average gas rates, not actual ONG/OG+E rates.

NG is about 50 cents per therm (100,000BTU) with ONG. Based on a energy factor of 2.45 the Heat pump water heater uses 12KWH of electricity to produce the same 100,000BTU of heat. OG+E charges about 10 cents per KWH, so the same 100k btu would be $1.20. For those on ONG, the heat pump water heater doesn't make economic sense.

All electric homes or homes with propane is a different story.

[stick47]

Makes sense, you were using national average gas rates, not actual ONG/OG+E rates.

NG is about 50 cents per therm (100,000BTU) with ONG. Based on a energy factor of 2.45 the Heat pump water heater uses 12KWH of electricity to produce the same 100,000BTU of heat. OG+E charges about 10 cents per KWH, so the same 100k btu would be $1.20. For those on ONG, the heat pump water heater doesn't make economic sense.

All electric homes or homes with propane is a different story.

Don't forget about ONG charging a minimum $13/mo service fee. (twice that if a heavy user) At our last house with a NG 40 gl WH my wife just checked and our bill in the summer was always close to $38/mo. So the math does work for a Hybrid WH IMO.

[ou48A]

There is a gigantic supply's of NG in the ground but when you have an EPA and other government agency under the current administration that slow play, delay or other wise obstruct the construction of new pipelines and other needed NG infrastructure, including propane processing facility's.... it helps drive up consumer cost. The result is that people bitch at the highly regulated natural distribution company’s when all they understand is their monthly bill just when up.

For several years informed people have talked about how government interference would cost folks more money.... Warmer weather will lower prices, some, but many feel the days of historic low NG prices (and their by-products) that many consumers have enjoyed are over.

[Servicetech571]

Propane shortage reaches emergency levels

[Zuplar]

That article is somewhat promising in the fact that it seems like there are some unfortunate events that coincided. I'm going to look at a heat pump but from a quick call to an hvac friend sounds like I'd have to replace a lot because my unit uses the old r22. He is saying ballpark $5k. That's practically a new system.

[Servicetech571]

That article is somewhat promising in the fact that it seems like there are some unfortunate events that coincided. I'm going to look at a heat pump but from a quick call to an hvac friend sounds like I'd have to replace a lot because my unit uses the old r22. He is saying ballpark $5k. That's practically a new system.

Yes, you would need to buy a matching coil/condenser when switching to a heat pump system. Did you tell him you wanted to reuse your old furnace? Did you discuss the tons of the unit?

[Zuplar]

Yeah we talked a bit about that, my unit is a 4 ton I believe. I'm not sure how expensive those pieces are but it seems like those are the major components so I guess that's why it is so high.