September 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

September 2023 seems to have the potential to be one of the ten hottest Septembers in OKC history. The current ten hottest are as follows:

1) 1931 - 93.5/70.9
2) 1998 - 92.9/69.5
3) 1939 - 93.6/66.9
4) 1911 - 90.8/69.2
5) 1978 - 90.7/68.7
6) 1954 - 93.1/64.9
7) 2019 - 88.8/68.8
8) 1933 - 88.6/68.5
9) 1947 - 89.9/66.4
10) 1921 - 88.5/67.6

[Anonymous.]

^ I agree. I mentioned several posts back in August thread that I see us making a run at some record highs in OKC coming up. There will be some fronts that swing through and "cool" us down temporarily, but with no meaningful moisture in 50+ days, the drought is going to continue to let air temps climb during the day. Only 4 times in the last two decades has OKC set or tied a record high in September.

Here is record highs each day for OKC in September for us to keep track:

September 1 106 2000
September 2 108 1939, 2000
September 3 108 2000
September 4 107 1998
September 5 106 1913, 1998
September 6 105 1936
September 7 105 1907, 1936, 2012
September 8 102 1896
September 9 102 1896, 1930
September 10 102 1930
September 11 105 2000
September 12 102 1895
September 13 102 1965, 2011
September 14 102 1965
September 15 101 1895
September 16 103 1896
September 17 104 1896
September 18 100 1896
September 19 98 1954
September 20 100 1954
September 21 97 1956, 1980, 1998, 2022
September 22 98 1921
September 23 96 1931, 1938
September 24 98 1898, 1938
September 25 99 1898
September 26 99 1898
September 27 99 1898
September 28 103 1953
September 29 98 1953
September 30 100 1977

[BG918]

Models are showing decent rain chances across the state next Wed/Thurs as a front stalls. Not big rains but any kind of moisture will be welcome.

[Pete]

We'd better get some rain before we head into the windy fall months.

[BG918]

We'd better get some rain before we head into the windy fall months.

Luckily September/October are historically the 3rd and 4th wettest months. You definitely don't want to be in drought heading into December-February

[BG918]

Models showing decent rain signals starting mid-next week into the following week. Currently favoring E OK into Missouri/Arkansas but will likely change

[okatty]

Still hot…. but man these mornings have been very nice. Early walks (or anything outside) are a good activity !

[BG918]

Still hot…. but man these mornings have been very nice. Early walks (or anything outside) are a good activity !

Amazing what dew points in the low 60’s will do when you’re used to the high 70’s! And two weeks ago it was over 80! Humidity will stay lower through the weekend but starts to increase early next week ahead of the frontal boundary

[C_M_25]

The mornings and evenings have been nice (thanks low dewpoints) but I’m tired of this heat. It’s September dang it! The start of the nicest season in Oklahoma. I’m ready for fall temps!

[BG918]

GFS forecasted rainfall through end of next week. Definitely entering a cooler and wetter pattern starting next weekend

[SEMIweather]

Echoing BG918, I'm starting to feel pretty good about our chances of a nice cooldown and widespread rainfall as early as Sunday. More likely on Monday, but regardless, relief does seem to be on the way.

In the meantime, expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop along a weak cold front around peak heating tomorrow. Short-range models differ on whether these will develop directly over the Metro, or just to the south, but in any case it'll just end up being a nowcast based on where the front ends up being located at 5-6 p.m. or so. Wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC issue a Marginal Risk for damaging winds but any severe threat should remain fairly localized.

[SEMIweather]

General thinking for today's thunderstorm threat remains roughly the same as what I posted last night. Weak cold front currently extends from Hollis to Cherokee and will continue to sink slowly SE throughout the day. Wherever the cold front is located around 5-6 p.m. is where scattered thunderstorms will initiate. Short-range models seem to think this will be directly over Oklahoma County, so it's still entirely up in the air as to whether or not we will actually get storms this evening, or miss out by a few miles. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for the Metro, with a Slight Risk just to the NE. Weak shear and steep lapse rates suggest that the main threat will be downburst winds and marginally severe hail as storms pulse out.

[SEMIweather]

Can clearly see the cold front/wind shift on the KTLX radar along a Perry-Okarche-Hobart line. Satellite imagery shows an altocumulus field just behind the front in Kingfisher and Garfield counties, and this will likely evolve into the first thunderstorm development of the day in approximately three hours. Still looking to be a really close call for whether or not OKC gets storms, though I'm slightly more confident than I was a few hours ago (maybe 50% as opposed to 40%).

[BG918]

HRRR wants to develop a narrow line of storms later this evening between 8-9 pm

[SEMIweather]

Convective initiation ongoing over Piedmont, all areas to the SE will have a storm threat for the next 2-4 hours or so.

[Anonymous.]

Severe Watch is out. This will be mostly for sporadic wind gusts, especially coming from collapsing storms.

[BG918]

Rain chances return tonight favoring NE OK. Statewide chances increasing Sunday into Monday with decent totals possible. High temps in the 70’s next week!

[soonerguru]

^^I always appreciate and look forward to your updates.

[Anonymous.]

Today and Saturday still hot. Should see ridge breakdown Sunday evening and giveaway to cooler temps and some decent rain chances.

Sunday night:

[BG918]

Forecasted rainfall through next weekend. Other models are showing higher totals across western OK. This couldn’t come at a better time, it’s really dry out there

[C_M_25]

Any rain is better than no rain, but this rain is a lot lighter than I was hoping for. Are we supposed to get more through the day?

[SEMIweather]

Any rain is better than no rain, but this rain is a lot lighter than I was hoping for. Are we supposed to get more through the day?

Yes, it looks like we should have another round move through around 5-8 p.m. this evening. Probably a half inch or so with that round.

Drier tomorrow and most of the day on Wednesday before another system moves through starting overnight Wednesday. Hopefully another half inch to an inch with that system.

[BG918]

HRRR radar at 9 pm. Heaviest rain will stay north of I-40

[Pete]

Really a nice, gentle but steady downpour at my house.

Pretty good little soaker.

[okatty]

I got my roof replaced last week and they have not gotten new gutters on. Would be good to have gutters tonight! Ha