November 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[kukblue1]

Not much of a change with afternoon models. All agree on a thin squall line coming in just slight differences on timing. SPC upped the tornado risk to 5% which now includes the OKC metro well mainly south side of the metro. Wouldn't be shocked too see some schools closing tomorrow if things hold true with this line. If you know anyone further south down towards Lawton, Wichita Falls make sure they have a way to get warnings in the middle of the night.

[kukblue1]

Spc has upgraded to enhanced risk for Lawton down to Wichita falls area. Please be weather aware. I know it's been November and it's not something you would expect but look what happened couple weeks ago

[kukblue1]

https://x.com/Drewshearer444/status/...Ba7sqXBEg&s=01. Strongest 850 millibar winds ever observed in November in the state of Oklahoma. I have seen some soundings too in Sw Oklahoma, NW Texas that are just absolutely off the charts

[kukblue1]

Once we get through the morning storms than we need to focus in Northern Oklahoma for a Tornado set up along the Kansas Border. Ponca City area.

[LakeEffect]

Storms are here... many schools have gone virtual or closed today, a few doing late state. Not a ton of lightning currently, but very strong winds coming in. Storms should be out of the metro by 8:00 am...

[bison34]

My Facebook feed was cluttered with all these tornado doomsday threats. I know, you want people informed, but using the language some were using made it seem like tornadoes were expected all up and down this line. It was just rain and wind, which is fine. Better safe than sorry, yes. But there is a way to inform without scaring the public, and Oklahoma media haven't figured that out yet.

Granted i didn't look at Facebook are 10pm, so maybe it toned down last night.

[jn1780]

The NWS never really hyped anything up so I don't why everyone else did. If they closed schools for a slight risk every single time, several days in May would be out.

[Teo9969]

...But there is a way to inform without scaring the public, and Oklahoma media haven't figured that out yet.
...

Is there though?

[jn1780]

Is there though?

Right? This event wasn't hyped by 'Official' sources. Pretty much can't put anything out there on social media without a hype feedback loop. Everyone there wants engagement with their posts.

[MagzOK]

The NWS never really hyped anything up so I don't why everyone else did. If they closed schools for a slight risk every single time, several days in May would be out.

Click-bait, views, and wanting you to stay on their channel. That's why. $$$$

[Bellaboo]

These guys need to give it up. It's a thunder storm without thunder. Much rather be watching GMA instead of rain in Chandler.

[Teo9969]

I think part of it is reaction to having been caught off guard a few weeks ago. So that's what makes it hard on weather people...the effectiveness of their messaging requires that they have a pulse on the current sentiment in the community.The same words and descriptors for multiple events can cause different reactions at different times.

Couple that with the reality that even the highest level of risk is defined as "very high likelihood (>=45%) of tornado occurring". In nearly no other area of language does "very high likelihood" start at less than 1 in 2 odds.

These kinds of storms are basically impossible to predict more than 30 minutes out. In my mind, I am either weather aware or I am not.

[LakeEffect]

The NWS never really hyped anything up so I don't why everyone else did. If they closed schools for a slight risk every single time, several days in May would be out.

Not that I know what your definition of "hyped up" is, but NWS did three separate YouTube updates before this system came in. Their other most recent YouTube updates was one two weeks ago, one 2 months ago, one 5 months ago, and multiple 6 months ago... so they certainly were trying to make people aware.

There were a couple tornado warnings this morning, actually north of their primary watch areas, so it's not like the storms didn't pack a punch. Plus, places received an 1" plus of rain, which is noteworthy and concerning considering how much rain we've already had this month.

[C_M_25]

Large tornado outbreaks are incredibly rare, if non-existent altogether, this time of year. There really isn’t enough energy in the atmosphere. Sure, some tornadoes are possible but will probabilistically be smaller in nature. I think some people were really blowing this storm out of proportion unnecessarily. Other than the time of the year, the time of the day was a real red flag imo in regarding the (lack of) severity of the storms today. Canceling school was idiotic but delayed starts really made sense imo.

[BoulderSooner]

another 1 inch + in this system .. OKC has to be getting close to the Nov rain record

[Bill Robertson]

My gauge had 2 1/2 inches this morning. Which would have been about my guess. The back yard looked like a lake.

[jn1780]

Not that I know what your definition of "hyped up" is, but NWS did three separate YouTube updates before this system came in. Their other most recent YouTube updates was one two weeks ago, one 2 months ago, one 5 months ago, and multiple 6 months ago... so they certainly were trying to make people aware.

There were a couple tornado warnings this morning, actually north of their primary watch areas, so it's not like the storms didn't pack a punch. Plus, places received an 1" plus of rain, which is noteworthy and concerning considering how much rain we've already had this month.

Sure, and the main focus was always southwestern Oklahoma even than they weren't really hyping that activity much.

[SEMIweather]

another 1 inch + in this system .. OKC has to be getting close to the Nov rain record

1) November 1931 - 9.63”
2) November 1899 - 7.80”
3) November 2024 - 7.71” (as of 11:00 a.m. CST)
4) November 1902 - 7.25”
5) November 1895 - 5.79”

If I had to guess, I’d say we’ll fall just short of 1899. Don’t see us picking up another tenth of an inch today and the rest of the month looks fairly dry. Still incredibly impressive nonetheless.

[bison34]

The rise and fall of Oklahoma precipitation. Poured on for 3 weeks, and now we could easily go 3 weeks without rain. If not longer.

But much, much needed rains for Oklahoma, which will hopefully help for the next couple months.

[kukblue1]

Instability or lack there of saved us. If we had even just a bit of it there would be people on here we didn't get enough warning blah blah blah. All other parameters were there. We still probably had 6 or 7 tornadoes in the state. While I agree not sure schools needed close the talk was warranted cause it was middle of the night and these tornadoes are so quick that if you not paying attention you might not even know your ready to be hit.

Schools just my opinion should just have the option of if you kid can't make it they can't make it and it's not counted as a absence. Leave it up too the parents too decide. Even I don't know do High school kids only.

[C_M_25]

Starting to see some snow and ice indicators for northern oklahoma the weekend after thanksgiving. Looks like winter may be truly upon us here pretty soon.