Starting March thread since the end of February is beautiful.

Sunday evening a quick shot at some rain across the state, but does not look too significant. Best chances are across N OK.

Tuesday for OKC is going to be close, storms likely fire just E of I-35 and track E. The forecasted atmosphere does appear pretty potent for extreme E OK into AR and across the lower Mississippi River valley. A widespread tornado outbreak is not out of the question there.

12Z GFS projected rainfall shows a very typical March pattern evolving with the majority of rainfall east of I-35 and significant rainfall further east into Arkansas. This usually pulls further west as we get into April/May, but not good for our current drought situation in central and western OK.

It’s way too warm for end of February. Extremely dry. Strong winds bringing the heat. Feels like we’re living in the desert west more so than in Oklahoma.

I just turned 30 so my bones are reciting poetry over this weather.

Severe weather threat focuses west of the Metro today, but we will get multiple rounds of weakening convection moving through between 3-9 p.m. today, should hopefully be enough for a quarter inch of rain or so.

Early morning hours on Tuesday are looking increasingly interesting for us, appears that a strongly forced line of convection will form just west of the Metro and move through between 2-5 a.m. with all severe hazards possible.

Tuesday Afternoon could be a major wildfire threat (particularly in the western part of the state), with strong westerly winds as the low pressure system which will cause the line of storms on Tuesday Morning will continue to strengthen and depart the area.

After Tuesday, things look to settle down, with near to slightly below average temperatures and low precipitation chances for the rest of the work week. Winds will continue to be gusty (typical for early March), so elevated wildfire conditions will continue.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is underway across parts of the TX
South Plains and southeast TX Panhandle, in the wake of elevated
convection that is moving into southwest OK and western north TX.
Differential heating is sharpening a low-level baroclinic zone
extending east-southeast of a deep-layer cyclone moving out of
east-central New Mexico. Convective initiation is underway near the
dryline east/southeast of Lubbock, and additional thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon as strong ascent overspreads
the region.

Low-level moisture remains rather limited, but mid/upper 40s F
dewpoints (locally higher) will be sufficient to support MLCAPE
increasing to near 500 J/kg with continued heating and cold
temperatures aloft. Deep-layer shear is more than sufficient for
organized convection, with the relatively limited buoyancy providing
the primary uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe threat
this afternoon. However, given the strong forcing, an arc of
convection with one or more small embedded supercells may develop
with time this afternoon and move northeastward, posing a risk of
hail and localized strong to severe gusts.

Some threat for a tornado may also evolve with time, especially with
any supercells in the vicinity of the warm-frontal zone, where
locally higher dewpoints (in the low 50s F) and a relatively
favorable overlap of low-level instability and vorticity will
reside. While the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain, watch
issuance is possible if development of multiple severe storms
appears imminent

SPC has upgraded C and S OK to Enhanced Risk with 10% tornado probabilities. Citing more moisture return than originally forecast.

This will be for any spinups along a line of storms that sweeps W to E tonight.

SPC has upgraded C and S OK to Enhanced Risk with 10% tornado probabilities. Citing more moisture return than originally forecast.

This will be for any spinups along a line of storms that sweeps W to E tonight.

Yep have a plan to get warnings overnight