January appears to be starting as normal, possibly dipping 10-15 degrees below normal for highs right as kids go back to school. Since that's a week out, as always, check forecasts often...

Will just post in this thread since it is already created.

The front is about to blast into OKC here during the lunch hour. Expect 20+ mph winds out of the NW bringing in colder air.

Subzero wind chills on some models in a couple weeks. Obviously a lot of variability this far out but looks like quite the blast coming

Things are getting spicy for late weekend into Monday. GFS suggesting cold rain transitioning to heavy wet snow and strong winds. Will keep monitoring.

https://i.imgur.com/RcJFmwn.png

Hopefully whether it is rain or snow we can get some decent precip totals. Most of the state except far eastern OK has been very dry all December.

This is pretty nice. For the first time in 40+ years I can not give a damn if it snows or how much snow we get because I get to sit inside and watch. Instead of getting the crew motivated and out to remove it. And still constantly hearing we're not getting it done fast enough.

BUT SCHOOL STARTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY! NO MORE SNOW DAYS! :)

Edmond didn't schedule any weather days in its calendar this year, and we've already had to cut "April Day" from the calendar (Good Friday).

I love a good snowstorm though, so I'm all in for hoping for it.

BUT SCHOOL STARTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY! NO MORE SNOW DAYS! :)

Edmond didn't schedule any weather days in its calendar this year, and we've already had to cut "April Day" from the calendar (Good Friday).

I love a good snowstorm though, so I'm all in for hoping for it.

but they can pivot to remote days at any time .. so there is not much need for snow days any more ..

but they can pivot to remote days at any time .. so there is not much need for snow days any more ..

Remote days are difficult for actual learning and for families who have working parents...

Remote days are difficult for actual learning and for families who have working parents...

100% I agree I don't really like them in any way .. but they are now the default plan for a bunch of school districts ..

Remote days are good for the occasional inclement weather day(more than two or three should trigger an actual makeup day). Its the remote days that are not related to inclement weather days that need to end.

Its the remote days that are not related to inclement weather days that need to end.

yes and to have them built in at the beginning of the year is crazy to me ..

Looks like the ole dry slot will be wiping out our precipitation chances. Seems like it happens all the time.

May have some light rain and mist Sunday afternoon turning into flurries, but yes - majority of the precipitation will be NE of C OK.

https://i.imgur.com/hgUNtoT.png

Typical. We hype things up, and they fizzle.

Let's not hype anything up next time until a day or so before.

I don’t know. This seems like a common pattern this time of year. Seems like it was pretty well established that this low wasn’t going to dive far enough south and too far east for us to get much. Lots could change, however.

The 11th is really starting to look interesting. If the moisture returns before that cold air moves in, we could get some decent snow.

Just as I write that, I check the updated GFS and it shows the moisture coming in far too late and almost no snow for us. We’ll see. Pretty far out still.

Some very light flurries at my house.

Given what is happening to our north and northeast, it's a good thing we missed out on the precip.

Are we going to have black ice tomorrow?

I got .11 of rain before it went below freezing. Just very light snow since then, not enough to worry about.

Fairly high confidence in accumulating snow with the next system Thursday Afternoon/Evening given that we’re still about 72 hours out. Accumulations look to be advisory criteria at this time, with higher totals to the south of the Metro.

Yes, carrying all the signs of a classic Southern Plains winter storm. Highest impact areas look to be SE OK into N TX at this time.

The models keep shifting the storm northward. I wouldn't be surprised to see the OKC metro totals go up as we get closer. SE OK, especially the higher elevations, look like they will be hammered.

Looking forward to having pea gravel and sand on the roads until May...

Winter Storm Watch is out for all of SE OK and down toward DFW. General 3-6" of snow accumulation, with high uncertainty in storm track. Waiting for next model runs before posting anything map related, but signs this morning are a shift to the ESE with storm track, which would obviously mean lower C OK impact.

https://i.imgur.com/swwATxT.png




https://i.imgur.com/0PxJdRf.png




https://i.imgur.com/u5MG0WN.png

that would be amazing

So the models are saying anywhere from 2inches to snow to 10. Thats a big difference.

So the models are saying anywhere from 2inches to snow to 10. Thats a big difference.

Has the forecast worsened? The source I watched changed their video forecast a bit ago but instead of providing new information, they said to tune in this afternoon and evening.

My wife is travelling for work, thru Friday, so I'm trying to get a get gauge on the weather so I can let her know if she needs to come home early.

Anything above 1inch triggers a 'remote day' for schools it seems like. For my kid, its doing one 30 minute activity and than grabbing the remote to watch tv.

Latest NAM hot off the press:

https://i.imgur.com/lrOehzd.png

Seems like there is considerable variability in the models right now. The lower res models are showing a widespread event with decent snowfall over much of the area. The high res vary from a dry slot setting in with no impact to just a minor impact. Think we’re going to need a bit more time before the models zero in on it.

I would love to be in the bullseye for 18 inches of snow though. Lol

Seems like there is considerable variability in the models right now. The lower res models are showing a widespread event with decent snowfall over much of the area. The high res vary from a dry slot setting in with no impact to just a minor impact. Think we’re going to need a bit more time before the models zero in on it.

I would love to be in the bullseye for 18 inches of snow though. Lol

What good does shutting a city down for a week do for you?

Pfft. I just want to play in the snow with my kids and act like a kid again with them. Go sledding. Eat snow ice cream. Have snowball fights. Go spinning around in the truck.

Seems like there is considerable variability in the models right now. The lower res models are showing a widespread event with decent snowfall over much of the area. The high res vary from a dry slot setting in with no impact to just a minor impact. Think we’re going to need a bit more time before the models zero in on it.

I would love to be in the bullseye for 18 inches of snow though. Lol


I am inclined to agree with you. While doing adult things, like driving, going to work etc…are a pain in the arse…the little kid in me gets a warm fuzzy feeling thinking about the sight and playing in the snow.

So, what does the good old National Weather Service say is going to happen in OKC starting on Thursday:

Thursday
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. South wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.

Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 35.

The Dallas situation will be worse but not by a very great deal with total snow accumulation expected at best 3 in. Chances for precipitation are higher at up to 90%.

Still some variability in the models this morning but they’re all starting to hint at a pocket of dry air that comes into central Oklahoma and keeps the moisture away. I suspect we get a dusting if anything at this point :(

duplicate

Here is the latest HRRR. The general trend is there will be a thin and very localized band of moderate snow that likely sets up across the state, exact location until development is basically impossible to pinpoint. Even those under this band still likely only get between 2-3" at best.


https://i.imgur.com/lIr5Dar.png

It doesn't happen often (this is an unusual storm track) but I could see some much higher totals coming out of the mountains in SE OK/W AR due to modest orographic lifting. It will be interesting to see where the secondary band on the backside sets up, all of the recent model runs have shown that and would increase totals by a couple inches. Otherwise I think OKC/Tulsa struggle to get more than 1-2" max.

Next storm comes through around 1/17-18 but right now looks mostly like a cold rain.

a big thank you to those (BG918, Anonymous, SEMIweather) and others that makes the weather thread so fantastic ..

Latest NAM is pulling the storm track further north. Which is bringing model forecasted totals higher to the NW with it.

Honestly the trajectory of the low will play a significant factor, there will be a sharp cutoff from basically a trace of snow, then suddenly could be 3" a few miles east. All depends on the consistent snow banding. If the low comes out in a more N/NE fashion, snow totals in C OK will go up. If the track is more W to E, things will dry out very quickly across C OK. The result is probably somewhere in the middle.

NWS has issues a blanket Winter Weather Advisory for essentially the entire state other than SE, where they have winter storm advisories. 1-3" totals in the wording.

Is it looking more like snow Thursday Morning/Afternoon then none on Friday? I see the percentages flowing that way from the NWS.

Storm is moving very quickly, so bulk of precipitation is expected on Thursday and into the evening. Friday will be any wrap-around remnants and clearing W to E.

Snow day for OKCPS tomorrow.

Snow day for OKCPS tomorrow.

Official forecast from the NWS Thursday Snow showers likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. South southwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Can someone post the latest Nam run that shows 10.5 inches of snow for OKC?

NAM continuing to push low track further north. GFS is loading now.

The totals for last NAM run are out-of-touch. But the main takeaway is trend of moderate snowfall off the low impacting more of C OK.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gg0hsBEWwAA-wK_?format=jpg&name=900x900

Latest GFS following NAM. Adding more snow across C OK for Thursday evening.

Will update more in the morning. But overall I would say Thursday AM watch for bridges and overpasses with quick moving sleet/snow. Then likely have a break before potential of a heavier round later in the evening hours. Will watch it closely as it evolves.

Here is a map of the expected snowstorm to play around with from two drop down menus. For instance, the chance of it snowing 6 in. in OKC is 5%. Better for desktop, rather than phone. https://stillwaterweather.com/wxnwswinter

Latest model data this morning is still consistent with last night. Higher totals further NW than initially expected, but the main show is still across SE/E OK.

C OK I would say 1-3" is a solid bet, with 1" being on the NW sides, 3" to the SE sides. At this point it would take a dramatic shift in the entire storm track or persistent localized snow-banding in order to give OKC anything crazy.

https://i.imgur.com/eaAauUH.png



https://i.imgur.com/Z64m0CV.png

duplicate

A couple things to watch today: (1) where is the dry slot and (2) where does the secondary band set up on the back side of the low? Where those ultimately set up will greatly vary the snowfall amounts across C and E OK

Looks like NWS extended the winter storm warnings west to include Oklahoma county. Tulsa office will probably also extend further north to I-40.

Looks like Oklahoma and Cleveland are now in the Winter Storm Warning.

Wow, really coming down now and starting to accumulate quickly.

Wow, really coming down now and starting to accumulate quickly.

will be interesting to see how much dumps ..

Latest HRRR showing the additional snow-to-come. The real kicker is going to be this evening when the snow plume off the low begins cranking from S to N. Right now, this line is forecast to be just E of I-35 corridor, any amount of time underneath those bands will result in significantly higher accumulation.

https://i.imgur.com/dPNayq2.png

Usually when we snow it has been above freezing, sometimes significantly slow, not many days before it comes down. The snow melts on grassy areas pretty quick in those instances but it's not letting up really at all. I think it's also causing some spots on less traveled roads to freeze a bit quicker.

Main roads may not be too awful throughout this storm, but I would think tomorrow morning might have a lot of black ice since the temps are right around freezing.