Easing into winter...

Really nice fall weather on tap this week. Sunny with highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. Hard freeze again Tuesday morning with temps in the mid-20's. Wednesday should be near perfect with sunny skies and highs in the low 60's.

Next rain chances are on Saturday 12/6, mostly southern OK into TX as it looks right now. Better chances statewide around Tuesday 12/10. No winter weather on the horizon...yet.

Last few model runs have pretty much eliminated the rain chances for this weekend except in southern and SE OK. The rain chances next week have also decreased but there are increased chances around 12/15-16.

Similar to this week temps ahead of the front will be in low 60’s and then will knock back into the low 50’s behind it with a similar warm up the following day. No arctic outbreaks across our area in the next two weeks.

Fog might be bad enough, Monday Morning the 9th, that schools could get cancelled.

Ironically, even after last month's rains, we need rain again.

Ironically, even after last month's rains, we need rain again.

It’s Oklahoma - we’re always either in a drought or flooding, boiling hot or freezing cold.

Weird day today... mist eventually accumulated enough to register a 0.02" of "rain" today at home near downtown Edmond.

GFS rainfall through the weekend, mostly targeting eastern OK
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121100/gfs_apcpn_scus_17.png

GFS rainfall through the weekend, mostly targeting eastern OK
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121100/gfs_apcpn_scus_17.png

Side note - these posts never show an image to me... but when I quote respond, the link shows up. Weird.

Side note - these posts never show an image to me... but when I quote respond, the link shows up. Weird.

It is probably and incompatibility with the site and the URL. I imagine if I upload it to imgur it'll work fine...

https://i.imgur.com/4EfAuPE.png

Winds out of the S will continue to build tonight through Thursday & Friday as next storm system approaches. This will boost temps into the 50s and 60s for most.

Still no decent moisture chances to be seen.

This afternoon models are trying to give I-35 a shot at rain, but it still looks abysmal. If you do get rain, it will be short-lived.

This is for late Friday night.

https://i.imgur.com/dfTqltx.png

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/weather/severe/2024/12/12/oklahoma-wildfire-forecast-2025-predicts-above-normal-chances/76924166007/ (https://www.oklahoman.com/story/weather/severe/2024/12/12/oklahoma-wildfire-forecast-2025-predicts-above-normal-

chances/76924166007/)

Drought returning, could lead to high fire changes in early 2025.

It is probably and incompatibility with the site and the URL. I imagine if I upload it to imgur it'll work fine...

https://i.imgur.com/4EfAuPE.png

Honestly, uploading stuff like this (and Mesonet products too!) either to the user profile image gallery system here on OKCTalk or to an external image host like Imgur/etc is the better way to go to maintain historical context... A lot of these images are dynamically generated and not static snapshots in time. Mesonet products in particular are really bad about this. For instance, if you go back and look at any of the older weather threads where things like rainfall totals or days since last rainfall (among other things) are discussed, more often than not the weather maps posted in those threads no longer reflect the event being discussed because they're just linking to stuff like "https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.72hr.png?cache_bust=1734041062967" instead of a static image. Even if you use the "Retrieve remote file and reference locally" option here on OKCTalk when making the post, that option always seems to error out... so I usually use the user gallery system here to hold images I want to post to threads.

Decent chance of widespread rain forming later tonight. Amounts look to be light though, maybe 0.25" in central OK and closer to 1" near the Arkansas border.

Another chance of rain on Sunday night but looks to be far eastern OK with the highest chance. Same for Tuesday.

I see you Dec 26th and all the Hype you are already causing well over a week out. IT'S WHAT WE DO IN OKLAHOMA :)

I see you Dec 26th and all the Hype you are already causing well over a week out. IT'S WHAT WE DO IN OKLAHOMA :)

Not everyone.

I wouldn’t put any faith in the models until this weekend. Moisture return has been a challenge all month hence why western/central OK have been so dry, and I’m not convinced that changes next week. Hopefully it does and we can get some decent precip statewide.

Either way it looks like another mild Christmas with highs in the 50’s.

Need some rain. Badly.

Mid-week update: GFS is still showing a system in our region around 12/24-25 but not enough moisture return for widespread rain (mainly SE OK). EURO is more bullish on widespread rain/storms both before and right after Christmas. We'll know more after the model runs this weekend..

Two rounds of rain this week: first arrives late Monday into Tuesday morning. The second arrives on Thursday. Severe weather possible in E OK on Thursday. Highs in the 50’s all week with no below-freezing temps for at least the next week.

Decent rainfall totals with the I-40 corridor the big winner. Another chance of rain Thursday into Friday morning.

https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png?cache_bust=1735061823790

I was surprised when I saw we got a little over an inch last night.

Low cloud deck is trying to burn off heading into lunch, but today [Friday] may stay cloudy for most of the sunlight hours.

Solid weekend for temps as we will be around 60F both days. Saturday afternoon may see a few shower, but best shot is E OK - I wouldn't cancel any plans in C OK for it. Monday looks like it may run at 70F.

Not seeing any solid precipitation chances anywhere.