Starting off November with an amazing Friday. Light winds and 75F.

Beginning Saturday afternoon, garden variety showers and storms will develop and move from NW TX into SW OK and continue to spread across the area into overnight.
Sunday, if clearing and daytime heating is sufficient, there will be a window of severe storm threat that evening across roughly W half of OK.
Monday, again if clearing and heating can take place, the threat corridor will be roughly from I-35 and points E.

SPC has both Sunday and Monday marked with 15% probabilities of severe weather. Overall the setup is very muddy due to the near-constant waves of rain and storms. I would place emphasis on flash-flooding. Some models have areas getting as much as half a foot of rain.

There’s a chance that we’ll already have clinched one of our 10 rainiest Novembers on record by the end of Monday. It would take 4.67” of precipitation.

Yep agree. Instability might be lacking for severe storms. Sunshine will be a big factor for Sunday. Some good ingredients but maybe no instability at all.

Starting off November with an amazing Friday. Light winds and 75F.

Beginning Saturday afternoon, garden variety showers and storms will develop and move from NW TX into SW OK and continue to spread across the area into overnight.
Sunday, if clearing and daytime heating is sufficient, there will be a window of severe storm threat that evening across roughly W half of OK.
Monday, again if clearing and heating can take place, the threat corridor will be roughly from I-35 and points E.

SPC has both Sunday and Monday marked with 15% probabilities of severe weather. Overall the setup is very muddy due to the near-constant waves of rain and storms. I would place emphasis on flash-flooding. Some models have areas getting as much as half a foot of rain.

So possibly dry saturday morning? Have an outdoor event saturday morning and all I have seen is rain rain and more rain.

So possibly dry saturday morning? Have an outdoor event saturday morning and all I have seen is rain rain and more rain.

Rain moving in from the SW. Latest HRRR has the morning dry for metro rain not moving in until 2 or 3. I should say heavy rain. Might be showers in the morning.

Sunday. Moisture check, Dryline check, Low pressure near Oklahoma panhandle check, Wind sheer check. Instability NO Might even have rain early Sunday morning.

Monday Looks like Eastern Oklahoma but things could change.

While the weather is settled down, here is a treat for TV weather fans with a look at how Tulsa TV stations do their weather with regional temperature boards.

KJRH-2
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/ch2.jpg

KOTV-6
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/ch6female.jpg

KOKI-Fox 23 (It's stingy with the temps, no OKC, Norman, Stillwater and others.)
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/fox23.jpg

KTUL-8 shown later if interest is expressed.

While the weather is settled down, here is a treat for TV weather fans with a look at how Tulsa TV stations do their weather with regional temperature boards.

KJRH-2
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/ch2.jpg

KOTV-6
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/ch6female.jpg

KOKI-Fox 23 (It's stingy with the temps, no OKC, Norman, Stillwater and others.)
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/fox23.jpg

KTUL-8 shown later if interest is expressed.

Haha, you should see the Tulsa World website. OKC might as well not exist.

So possibly dry saturday morning? Have an outdoor event saturday morning and all I have seen is rain rain and more rain.

Personally, I think Sat morning will be (mostly) dry. The main show will be afternoon and overnight.


Latest NAM creams I-44 corridor and points E.

https://i.imgur.com/gQL1Eou.png

While the weather is settled down, here is a treat for TV weather fans with a look at how Tulsa TV stations do their weather with regional temperature boards.

KJRH-2
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/ch2.jpg

KOTV-6
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/ch6female.jpg

KOKI-Fox 23 (It's stingy with the temps, no OKC, Norman, Stillwater and others.)
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/fox23.jpg

KTUL-8 shown later if interest is expressed.

To be fair, they pretty much follow their DMA.

So if one is planning for the OU game Saturday, are we talking extended mid-game washout with storms?? Sounds like a recipe for a long lightning delay...??

So if one is planning for the OU game Saturday, are we talking extended mid-game washout with storms?? Sounds like a recipe for a long lightning delay...??

Looking better for OU game for it not being a complete washout. Showers around yes. Looks like a big way late Saturday night into Sunday morning than round 2 Sunday evening that could be severe but will depend on how much recovery we can achieve after the morning storms.

To be fair, they pretty much follow their DMA.

Traditionally there is overlap between the Joplin, Springdale and Fort Smith TV stations and Tulsa stations, hence why some show Fayetteville, Fort Smith and Coffeyville. If you're in a transition area away from the larger cities it's not uncommon to have several TV news stations i.e. Duncan has OKC, Lawton and Wichita Falls, etc.

OU moved kickoff up to 11 a.m. due to the weather

OU moved kickoff up to 11 a.m. due to the weather

I was thinking that might happen and it's a good move on their part

Personally, I think Sat morning will be (mostly) dry. The main show will be afternoon and overnight.


Latest NAM creams I-44 corridor and points E.

https://i.imgur.com/gQL1Eou.png

Thank you. Fingers crossed.

I was thinking that might happen and it's a good move on their part

First time in my life they've pre-emptively moved a home kickoff for weather. I remember the 1983 OU-Nebraska game where a driving rainstorm hit mid third quarter and they kept right on playing.

I was at that game and it may have been one of the most funnest OU games I was ever at and I;ve been to alot.

When I was a student at OU -- so it had to have been somewhere between '78 and '82 -- we were killing Kansas and then an absolute torrential downpour came right after halftime. It rained so hard there was water standing on that old artificial turf with the huge crest running down the middle.

Of course everyone left but my fraternity house was close enough to the stadium that a buddy and I ran back, changed into serious rain gear and went back to the game (this was back in the O'Connell's days when they would let you come in and out).

We ended up going up under the west upper deck where maybe a few hundred people (and the poor band, stuck in their usual spot) watched to the end. It never stopped raining and for some reason, that game remains one of my favorite OU football memories.

Not rain, but the 1988 OU v Nebraska game was absolutely frigid and snow/sleet. Nebr beat OU 7-3 (the day Charles Thompson suffered a broken leg). I recall that game very well because my wife was pregnant and she still talks about it!! Quite a memory!

SPC has pushed slight Risk into the OKC metro for tomorrow. Should be a pretty late evening event. A lot of forcing with this set up. Sunday looks very interesting. If we get peaks of sun on Sunday pay close attention.

FROM THE SPC FOR SATURDAY:
The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that
will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming
out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate
outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest
OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a
couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger
heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more
information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may
occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the
composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the
evening and overnight.

Due to forecasts of thunderstorms, the start time for Oklahoma State’s homecoming football game against Arizona State has been moved. Originally scheduled for 6 p.m., the new kickoff time is set for 2:30 p.m. The game will now be televised on FOX in Oklahoma and Arizona, with nationwide coverage on FS2.

The decision, made by OSU, Arizona State and the Big 12 Conference, reflects weather projections showing storms expected around the Stillwater area starting Saturday evening into Sunday.

The weather for the walkaround in Stillwater was ideal Friday night.

Latest models don’t have much rain in central Oklahoma until about 8 pm

Of course we move timing for football games and now the models have pushed the rain back till basically tomorrow….

Of course we move timing for football games and now the models have pushed the rain back till basically tomorrow….

You *knew* that would happen. ;)

Im looking at radar… while stopped at a light… that wall of water out west… is it a slow mover? It looks like it would interfere with games even more now….����*♀️

Of course we move timing for football games and now the models have pushed the rain back till basically tomorrow….

And yet people still think they can't control the weather. How much more proof do they need? SMH

Is this looking worse for OKC, in terms of rain amounts? We need feet of rain, and it seems to be wanting to avoid us.

Severe weather for Sunday is going down some. Also heavy rain has shifted just east of the metro on the afternoon runs also for Sunday. For tonight. I'm not liking storm mode for south central Oklahoma and SW Oklahoma for around midnight. Something to keep an eye out on if storms form ahead of the main they there could be big problems.

Large area of storms will push into the Metro over the next hour or two.

Not seeing the 8 inches of rain for OKC the doom and gloom media were hyping. I see weakening storms about to hit the metro.

Not seeing the 8 inches of rain for OKC the doom and gloom media were hyping. I see weakening storms about to hit the metro.

This is the first round of a three-day event, and not even the biggest round. Entirely too early to be making any sort of statement like this.

This is the first round of a three-day event, and not even the biggest round. Entirely too early to be making any sort of statement like this.

I hope you are right. From what I have seen on here, the others seem more sever (i.e. hit or miss) in nature.

The line that is about to go through the metro is intensifying.

Holy cow, monsoon city.

I’ll be driving back to OKC from Texas tomorrow- is there an estimate of when heavy rain will be coming through tomorrow afternoon?

Got an inch in our rain gauge! Whoop! Keep it coming!

Is there a round 2? If so, when? Going to the Creed concert, so I'm not sure if it will be bad after.

Got an inch in our rain gauge! Whoop! Keep it coming!

Around .75" in Stillwater where the 2nd half of the OSU game with Arizona State has just started after a rain delay.

It will be fun to watch this get updated over the next couple days
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.72hr.png?cache_bust=1730596532353

Is that gap that will cover OKC going to fill in? Or is it going to stay dry tonight in OKC?

Just kind of crazy how it is literally the OKC Metro with no rain in sight. Lol

Its coming up from the southwest

Just kind of crazy how it is literally the OKC Metro with no rain in sight. Lol

Is this some kind of bit or something?

I-240/Sooner Road area got hit by what looks to be a fairly strong tornado. Not good at this time of night.

Multiple active overnight spinups happening ahead of the line. OKC should be good from here on out. ~1am post time change.

Is that gap that will cover OKC going to fill in? Or is it going to stay dry tonight in OKC?

Just kind of crazy how it is literally the OKC Metro with no rain in sight. Lol

For Saturday night, Oklahoma is where the heaviest weather action in the nation is concentrated. Even a tornado warning issued for eastern Oklahoma County with some damage at Tinker Air Force Base. Another tornado was out for east of Duncan. The night is far from over.
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/nids/maps/realtime/Oklahoma.MosaicBREF.png?cache_bust=1691479459890

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Of course when I post that. Tornado warning for OKC proper. Quick spinup on this cluster.

Newcastle into Moore area.

This is more like Spring weather.

Another area of rotation coming up through the exact same path as the last one.

Bridgecreek - Newcastle - Moore.

Edit: Not currently tor warned at time of post.

Raining heavily in Stillwater at up to a rate of 7" per hour before backing off. This may be the drought breaker.

Tornado hit the Heart Hospital South. Less than .5 miles away from me. Been raining for 2 hours now.

Looks like the far east side of Oklahoma County along the Kickapoo Turnpike, Harrah and Newalla took the brunt of the storms/tornado damage from early this morning. The OG&E Power Plant near Horseshoe Lake also looks like it received damage.

Little worried about today but not as much as I am Monday morning 7-10 time frame for more quick spin up tornadoes. Really worried for outbreak in Eastern Oklahoma on Monday Also. Today (Sunday) is really what computer model you want to go with. So many boundaries out there right now. A warm front floating around. Anything is possible today.

Severe weather for Sunday is going down some. Also heavy rain has shifted just east of the metro on the afternoon runs also for Sunday. For tonight. I'm not liking storm mode for south central Oklahoma and SW Oklahoma for around midnight. Something to keep an eye out on if storms form ahead of the main they there could be big problems.

I was not liking the way things were trending yesterday at all. I didn't think it would get as far north as it did but I got the around midnight part correct.

Here is a 1 1/2 hour long areal video of the tornado damage:


https://www.youtube.com/live/GQ79060tUpA

1:00 p.m. update really need to keep an eye on the area from Davis down to the Red River back to Duncan too near Wichita falls. South Central Oklahoma possible tornadoes this evening is how it's looking right now

SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk outlook for S/SE Ok for today. OKC metro not in the enhanced zone at this time.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

No mesocale discussions active right now.

Tornado watch coming for C and SC OK. Severe and tornado warned storms are moving up from the SW again. The air over OKC is relatively stable, but shear environment is really good for quick spinups.

Flash flooding threat high obviously as most of the area has seen 3-5” in the last 48 hours.