Tulsa broke its November rainfall record of 8.29” that dates back to 1931. 22 days left in November to add to that total.

When will we hear the first Thanksgiving forecast?

Severe weather Possible next weekend. 15th 16th 17th. Nothing set in stone at this point too far out. Mid week system probably won't have enough gulf moisture too work with for severe weather.

Severe weather Possible next weekend. 15th 16th 17th. Nothing set in stone at this point too far out. Mid week system probably won't have enough gulf moisture too work with for severe weather.

I sure hope not, flights better not be cancelled since I am traveling next weekend

Chances of rain Wednesday and Sunday. Neither looks very impressive right now but should watch Sunday for severe weather risk.

GFS rainfall forecast this week
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024111018/gfs_apcpn_scus_30.png

HERE COMES THE COLD GET READY. After the big systems this Weekend early next week. Still not sure on timing but the cold is coming

Latest HRRR showing little to no rain in C OK overnight Tuesday into Wednesday AM.

https://i.imgur.com/mXMXqNR.png

Monday could be a severe weather day looking more like Eastern Oklahoma right now but it's only Tuesday so way too soon.

Monday Big or Bust. Moisture return and heating will be the two big factors. System Low, Jet stream and other parameters look good. Location still unknown slight favor for Eastern Oklahoma

Latest HRRR showing little to no rain in C OK overnight Tuesday into Wednesday AM.

https://i.imgur.com/mXMXqNR.png

Right, you were. I only got .01".

MIke Morgan tweet? What is that all about? It's still a week away so I'm not even linking it but what was that all about?

Latest GFS for beginning of next week. Models have been favoring heaviest rain across W OK.

https://i.imgur.com/AyE6T2s.png

Not that I’m complaining but what has been the deal with that part of the state this year? Feel like they’ve been in the bullseye a lot.

Severe Weather for parts of the State are looking better for Monday. Still way too early. SPC put a risk in North Central Texas. Sara might provide more moisture than models are showing now. Low Pressure might bomb out over Oklahoma. Still way too many questions but something too keep an eye on.

https://x.com/KingsUp405/status/1857149015927709906 Oh this is where all this big snow for next Wednesday is coming from. One computer run hurry everyone go get bread and milk now. SMH

We need to see if this slower solutions coming in with the computer models continues for Sunday night Monday storm. Slower system ejecting out could mean big problems for I-35 East on Monday for severe weather possibly as far back as highway 81

Did anyone keep track on how long Fall weather actually lasted before we faceplant straight into winter next week? :)

Did anyone keep track on how long Fall weather actually lasted before we faceplant straight into winter next week? :)

Looks like it was roughly 4 weeks long. Now we get bitter cold til March. :)

Did anyone keep track on how long Fall weather actually lasted before we faceplant straight into winter next week? :)

I haven't even turned on my furnace yet, since the fall has been so warm. The coldest it's gotten is around 34.

Turning to a different but related topic, the Oklahoma City NOAA weather radio station can be heard online. It may be a good thing to know if you don't have access to a NOAA weather radio. To directly tune to it online the URL is: https://wxradio.org/OK-OklahomaCity-WXK85

To choose other available Oklahoma NOAA weather radio stations and many others from across the country there are two networks to go to:
https://noaaweatherradio.org/ If the OKC station isn't working here, then it may be working at this network:
https://www.weatherusa.net/radio

For mobile phone use there are at least one or two apps for it.

I haven't even turned on my furnace yet, since the fall has been so warm. The coldest it's gotten is around 34.

Also very little to no AC this past month. The 100 dollar OGE bill was nice.

Still keeping my eye on Monday we could have storms early morning with a squall line with a quick spin-up tornadoes or later in the afternoon if the system slows down some

Anybody else as tired of the wind this fall as me? Usually, fall doesn’t have as consistently high winds as we’ve seen this year. This feels like spring moreso than fall.

Instability is going to be lacking for Monday's event. SPC has now included Norman down i-44 and down I-35 in a slight rest area.. right now I'm thinking just a really windy Squall line coming through.

Anybody else as tired of the wind this fall as me? Usually, fall doesn’t have as consistently high winds as we’ve seen this year. This feels like spring moreso than fall.

Until around two weeks ago, I've been amazed from the wind not blowing much at all day after day. Windy days can get a lot worse and more annoying than what we have been having. But if you live in a rural location there is more wind due to less blockage from trees and buildings.

Would not be shocked to see a tornado warning or two in Sw Oklahoma early Monday morning.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=oun&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Pay attention Monday.

GFS rain forecast through Friday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024111706/gfs_apcpn_scus_23.png

Anyone from OKC to Wichita falls and OKC down to Dallas really need to be alert Monday morning like 2-7am. Have a way to get warnings in the middle of the night. This is becoming the real deal.

WOW JUST WOW. Some of these soundings I'm pulling up from Chickasha down to Wichita Fall early morning are off the charts. Helicity track from one storm is huge. Shear is incredible cloud height is only 300 feet. It's not going to take much for a quick spin up tornado. Please have a way for warnings in the middle of the night. I'm sure someone here knows how to post maps. I hope they do cause people really need to pay attention.

Not much of a change with afternoon models. All agree on a thin squall line coming in just slight differences on timing. SPC upped the tornado risk to 5% which now includes the OKC metro well mainly south side of the metro. Wouldn't be shocked too see some schools closing tomorrow if things hold true with this line. If you know anyone further south down towards Lawton, Wichita Falls make sure they have a way to get warnings in the middle of the night.

Spc has upgraded to enhanced risk for Lawton down to Wichita falls area. Please be weather aware. I know it's been November and it's not something you would expect but look what happened couple weeks ago

https://x.com/Drewshearer444/status/1858280006390030416?t=tfvXRqlVDJ8SQBa7sqXBEg&s=01. Strongest 850 millibar winds ever observed in November in the state of Oklahoma. I have seen some soundings too in Sw Oklahoma, NW Texas that are just absolutely off the charts

Once we get through the morning storms than we need to focus in Northern Oklahoma for a Tornado set up along the Kansas Border. Ponca City area.

Storms are here... many schools have gone virtual or closed today, a few doing late state. Not a ton of lightning currently, but very strong winds coming in. Storms should be out of the metro by 8:00 am...

My Facebook feed was cluttered with all these tornado doomsday threats. I know, you want people informed, but using the language some were using made it seem like tornadoes were expected all up and down this line. It was just rain and wind, which is fine. Better safe than sorry, yes. But there is a way to inform without scaring the public, and Oklahoma media haven't figured that out yet.

Granted i didn't look at Facebook are 10pm, so maybe it toned down last night.

The NWS never really hyped anything up so I don't why everyone else did. If they closed schools for a slight risk every single time, several days in May would be out.

...But there is a way to inform without scaring the public, and Oklahoma media haven't figured that out yet.
...

Is there though?

Is there though?

Right? This event wasn't hyped by 'Official' sources. Pretty much can't put anything out there on social media without a hype feedback loop. Everyone there wants engagement with their posts.

The NWS never really hyped anything up so I don't why everyone else did. If they closed schools for a slight risk every single time, several days in May would be out.

Click-bait, views, and wanting you to stay on their channel. That's why. $$$$

These guys need to give it up. It's a thunder storm without thunder. Much rather be watching GMA instead of rain in Chandler.

I think part of it is reaction to having been caught off guard a few weeks ago. So that's what makes it hard on weather people...the effectiveness of their messaging requires that they have a pulse on the current sentiment in the community.The same words and descriptors for multiple events can cause different reactions at different times.

Couple that with the reality that even the highest level of risk is defined as "very high likelihood (>=45%) of tornado occurring". In nearly no other area of language does "very high likelihood" start at less than 1 in 2 odds.

These kinds of storms are basically impossible to predict more than 30 minutes out. In my mind, I am either weather aware or I am not.

The NWS never really hyped anything up so I don't why everyone else did. If they closed schools for a slight risk every single time, several days in May would be out.

Not that I know what your definition of "hyped up" is, but NWS did three separate YouTube updates before this system came in. Their other most recent YouTube updates was one two weeks ago, one 2 months ago, one 5 months ago, and multiple 6 months ago... so they certainly were trying to make people aware.

There were a couple tornado warnings this morning, actually north of their primary watch areas, so it's not like the storms didn't pack a punch. Plus, places received an 1" plus of rain, which is noteworthy and concerning considering how much rain we've already had this month.

Large tornado outbreaks are incredibly rare, if non-existent altogether, this time of year. There really isn’t enough energy in the atmosphere. Sure, some tornadoes are possible but will probabilistically be smaller in nature. I think some people were really blowing this storm out of proportion unnecessarily. Other than the time of the year, the time of the day was a real red flag imo in regarding the (lack of) severity of the storms today. Canceling school was idiotic but delayed starts really made sense imo.

another 1 inch + in this system .. OKC has to be getting close to the Nov rain record

My gauge had 2 1/2 inches this morning. Which would have been about my guess. The back yard looked like a lake.

Not that I know what your definition of "hyped up" is, but NWS did three separate YouTube updates before this system came in. Their other most recent YouTube updates was one two weeks ago, one 2 months ago, one 5 months ago, and multiple 6 months ago... so they certainly were trying to make people aware.

There were a couple tornado warnings this morning, actually north of their primary watch areas, so it's not like the storms didn't pack a punch. Plus, places received an 1" plus of rain, which is noteworthy and concerning considering how much rain we've already had this month.

Sure, and the main focus was always southwestern Oklahoma even than they weren't really hyping that activity much.

another 1 inch + in this system .. OKC has to be getting close to the Nov rain record

1) November 1931 - 9.63”
2) November 1899 - 7.80”
3) November 2024 - 7.71” (as of 11:00 a.m. CST)
4) November 1902 - 7.25”
5) November 1895 - 5.79”

If I had to guess, I’d say we’ll fall just short of 1899. Don’t see us picking up another tenth of an inch today and the rest of the month looks fairly dry. Still incredibly impressive nonetheless.

The rise and fall of Oklahoma precipitation. Poured on for 3 weeks, and now we could easily go 3 weeks without rain. If not longer.

But much, much needed rains for Oklahoma, which will hopefully help for the next couple months.

Instability or lack there of saved us. If we had even just a bit of it there would be people on here we didn't get enough warning blah blah blah. All other parameters were there. We still probably had 6 or 7 tornadoes in the state. While I agree not sure schools needed close the talk was warranted cause it was middle of the night and these tornadoes are so quick that if you not paying attention you might not even know your ready to be hit.

Schools just my opinion should just have the option of if you kid can't make it they can't make it and it's not counted as a absence. Leave it up too the parents too decide. Even I don't know do High school kids only.

Starting to see some snow and ice indicators for northern oklahoma the weekend after thanksgiving. Looks like winter may be truly upon us here pretty soon.

The rise and fall of Oklahoma precipitation. Poured on for 3 weeks, and now we could easily go 3 weeks without rain. If not longer.

But much, much needed rains for Oklahoma, which will hopefully help for the next couple months.

The differences are definitely drastic at times but I’ll say, after living between San Francisco and Portland for most of the last decade, I don’t really mind it.

My first year at college was in 2016-17 and that year there was an incredible amount of rain, in some areas as much as 180% increase over the average across various parts of NorCal including snowfall in the Sierra Nevada’s. It was tolerable outside of the “Pineapple Express” timeframe, which is what brought most of the precipitation. Living and spending a lot of time in Northern Oregon and Southwestern Washington for a couple of years after college actually felt quite repressive. It’s hard to beat during the warmer months or in short spurts at a time - a few weeks at most - from roughly late September to early May, but spending several years there brought a new appreciation for the dry, sunny spells we go through in Oklahoma, even if it makes the terrain look harsh.

These guys need to give it up. It's a thunder storm without thunder. Much rather be watching GMA instead of rain in Chandler.
I have no problem with them breaking in when there's actually severe weather people need to know about. But at 4:00 Mike Morgan broke into Jeopardy for 5 minutes to say that there was a line of showers passing through central Oklahoma. Rain, just rain. And he ended with "We're following this very closely and we'll keep you advised".

1) November 1931 - 9.63”
2) November 1899 - 7.80”
3) November 2024 - 7.71” (as of 11:00 a.m. CST)
4) November 1902 - 7.25”
5) November 1895 - 5.79”

If I had to guess, I’d say we’ll fall just short of 1899. Don’t see us picking up another tenth of an inch today and the rest of the month looks fairly dry. Still incredibly impressive nonetheless.

Tulsa is at 12.44” for November, already the wettest November on record and 8th wettest month on record. Really astounding after the incredible dry spell in October and September.

Schools just my opinion should just have the option of if you kid can't make it they can't make it and it's not counted as a absence. Leave it up too the parents too decide. Even I don't know do High school kids only.

Kids waiting for busses outside is a large part of the decision making process for schools. Children waiting for a school bus this morning would have been drenched regardless of how well they prepared.

Schools don't make class optional because it's a waste of a school day. Many of a school's faculty won't go to work either because of the inclement weather or because they have children needing care because their school closed. Getting substitutes is an added expense. A teacher who does show up to teach a class that is 25% full won't do much teaching. The lesson plan will be paused because it's significantly more work to get the absent students caught up in the days that follow. Lots of these teachers will be asked to cover classes for which a substitute couldn't be secured. So the optional day ends up being a blow off day for those students who do attend. And those parents, students, faculty, and staff are angered because they made the effort for naught.

another 1 inch + in this system .. OKC has to be getting close to the Nov rain record

At 12.99" in Tulsa, it's the all-time record for the month of November. The rest of the month may be dry.

My gauge had 2 1/2 inches this morning. Which would have been about my guess. The back yard looked like a lake.

Mine just had 1.42". Somebody has to always be under the heaviest part of a rain system.

Tulsa is at 12.44” for November, already the wettest November on record and 8th wettest month on record. Really astounding after the incredible dry spell in October and September.

Oh, are you like me and live close enough to get the Tulsa TV stations? I think channel KTUL-8 put it at 12.99" for the latest updated amount.

Copy/paste forecast for the next several days. Warming up to near 70 beginning Saturday.

Thanksgiving week looks colder.

Oh, are you like me and live close enough to get the Tulsa TV stations? I think channel KTUL-8 put it at 12.99" for the latest updated amount.

12.44" officially so far at TIA in November. 14.18" since Oct. 30. 6th wettest month on record, and the period from Nov 1-8 was the wettest week since 1974.