Phenomenal rain event.

Anybody have information on whether the tornado threat will be in the morning or in the afternoon tomorrow?

Anybody have information on whether the tornado threat will be in the morning or in the afternoon tomorrow?

Morning Metro west evening Eastern Oklahoma

Anytime between 6am and noon tomorrow for storms in the Metro. Tornadoes possible as the big wave moves in. Probably more rain before than also.

Phenomenal rain event.

I emptied 7 inches out of our rain gauge this evening near NW Highway and Sara Road, all of it since Saturday afternoon.

Took them 19 hours to get power back for us at 89th and Sooner.

Midnight update not liking the slower solution that the hrrr is spitting out. It's now showing a line of supercells from OKC South through South Central Oklahoma between 12:00 and 2:00. We'll see if this slower trend continues

Oh as I was typing out my midnight update I did not realize that the SPC came out with theirs. They moved the enhance rish back west. Now includes Oklahoma City down 44 Lawton and Wichita falls they also included a 10% hatched area for tornadoes in this area. Please pay attention starting tomorrow morning early.

Multiple radar indicated spinups along this line coning into the W side of OKC metro. Large tornado polygon to wake everyone up.

Multiple radar indicated spinups along this line coning into the W side of OKC metro. Large tornado polygon to wake everyone up.

Sirens for the Venice neighborhood at 6:15, and occasionally thereafter, with absolutely no rain even happening at those times. Polygon is way too huge, 9 actually said no tornadoes on the ground, some small debris. And schools apparenly actually canceled! SMH, way too OTT for this, crying wolf. It's all actually pretty much over at our place now.

Round one over did we can some as it came into the Metro. Round two taking shape and far Southwest Oklahoma. Keep an eye around noon time

Sirens for the Venice neighborhood at 6:15, and occasionally thereafter, with absolutely no rain even happening at those times. Polygon is way too huge, 9 actually said no tornadoes on the ground, some small debris. And schools apparenly actually canceled! SMH, way too OTT for this, crying wolf. It's all actually pretty much over at our place now.

They canceled because of the afternoon wave and okc schools was already out for the day. Watch the main action happen in Norman now since they decided to stay open.

......And schools apparenly actually canceled! SMH, way too OTT for this, crying wolf. It's all actually pretty much over at our place now.

How many kids do you have in school that rely on busses driving around these vast areas in the metro?

How many kids do you have in school that rely on busses driving around these vast areas in the metro?

None, and thanks to the info above about OKC already being out, it makes more sense. Still think the large polygon and sirens were a bit excessive. Warning means a tornado has been sighted visually or on radar, and for our area and most of the metro, that was definitely not the case.

Sirens for the Venice neighborhood at 6:15, and occasionally thereafter, with absolutely no rain even happening at those times. Polygon is way too huge, 9 actually said no tornadoes on the ground, some small debris. And schools apparenly actually canceled! SMH, way too OTT for this, crying wolf. It's all actually pretty much over at our place now.

Knew someone would complain about “non-action”. Nice dry run for kids in my house. I live around Wilshire and Kilpatrick and we could hear the wind/rain doing in multiple directions thru our pergola. Ears were popping.


Jim Gardner KWTV chopper just said he was at Wiley Post and was about to take off when he saw a rope tornado (just over us) that got just about halfway down but never touched ground (obviously)
so yeah..

Knew someone would complain about “non-action”. Nice dry run for kids in my house. I live around Wilshire and Kilpatrick and we could hear the wind/rain doing in multiple directions thru our pergola. Ears were popping.


Jim Gardner KWTV chopper just said he was at Wiley Post and was about to take off when he saw a rope tornado (just over us) that got just about halfway down but never touched ground (obviously)
so yeah..

"non-action"? Not sure what you mean by that (edit: had some coffee and figured it out), but both those locations are not close to Venice, so my point about the sirens and polygon are still pretty valid.

They 100% decided to make the polygon for the whole line because Saturday night was still fresh on their minds. It was the kind of setup where a new area of spin could quickly form anywhere along the line.

Watch out the storms coming from the south are ramping up.

When was the last time we had multiple tornadic events in the OKC area in the month of November??

This is crazy.

What an insane flip for the state. This storm has taken the perfect track to give a large majority of the state rainfall amounts that normally only come with a tropical system.

Tulsa is already over 8" and OKC will be by the time this is over.

When was the last time we had multiple tornadic events in the OKC area in the month of November??

This is crazy.
Looks like the last time there were multiple tornados reported in November in Oklahoma County was 2004. They’re fairly common state-wide though, historically. This time of year is legitimately designated a second severe weather season: https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-novembertornadoes

Tornado watch coming for SC into E OK in the next couple hours. OKC will likely be on the fringe of the watch box, but majority of action should be to the SE of the metro.

Next SPC outlook update may upgrade SC into E OK to Moderate category for heightened tornado parameters.


Current solar radiation ongoing across E OK is not a good sign.

https://i.imgur.com/s1tOMMR.png

Front has already come through OKC much quicker than thought. It's 9:30 am. Still expect big storms though to the east southeast of the metro.

Looks like frontal passage across C Ok has greatly reduced if not eliminated tornado risk. East of front still in area of concern; west (behind) front, just rain.

While this is amazing for OK, I wish we had a more consistent, calm rainy period. Like, an inch or 2 every week or so. Not like, 8 inches, then 5 weeks without rain. But I know that is a "beggars can't be choosers" thing. Glad for the substantial drink the state got.

I have to wonder if this newer weather technology has just brought attention to these QLCS tornadoes than even 20 years ago. We've always had these squall lines move through, but have historically just had a majority of straight line wind reports. I just don't remember hearing the term "QLCS tornado" until the last 10 or 15 years maybe. I wonder if the newer technology and better radars in this time frame has really allowed weather experts to further dissect storms in general revealing more in depth these tornados along these lines. Like perhaps maybe even straight line wind reports 20 years ago could have been QLCS tornadoes that we're just now recently learning about. I understand we have some supercells in this event, but I'm primarily referring to the squall lines that we've had the last few days and this morning. Thoughts?

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I have to wonder if this newer weather technology has just brought attention to these QLCS tornadoes than even 20 years ago. We've always had these squall lines move through, but have historically just had a majority of straight line wind reports. I just don't remember hearing the term "QLCS tornado" until the last 10 or 15 years maybe. I wonder if the newer technology and better radars in this time frame has really allowed weather experts to further dissect storms in general revealing more in depth these tornados along these lines. Like perhaps maybe even straight line wind reports 20 years ago could have been QLCS tornadoes that we're just now recently learning about. I understand we have some supercells in this event, but I'm primarily referring to the squall lines that we've had the last few days and this morning. Thoughts?

Yes radar indicated tornados (gate-to-gate shear) technology is leagues above where it used to be. Technology + chasers/spotting/social media has bolstered storm reporting like we have never seen in history. Because of this, it is extremely rare for a tornado to go un-reported/verified even in desolate areas.

The reason for the large polygon across OKC this morning was because there was at least 4 areas of shear along the line of storms and with it being early AM, as a precaution - the warning included everyone.

I have to wonder if this newer weather technology has just brought attention to these QLCS tornadoes than even 20 years ago. We've always had these squall lines move through, but have historically just had a majority of straight line wind reports. I just don't remember hearing the term "QLCS tornado" until the last 10 or 15 years maybe. I wonder if the newer technology and better radars in this time frame has really allowed weather experts to further dissect storms in general revealing more in depth these tornados along these lines. Like perhaps maybe even straight line wind reports 20 years ago could have been QLCS tornadoes that we're just now recently learning about. I understand we have some supercells in this event, but I'm primarily referring to the squall lines that we've had the last few days and this morning. Thoughts?

Agreed, but even 20 years ago the NWS covered themselves by mentioning that a tornado could form at anytime from a severe thunderstorm so its not like they didn't know it didn't happen, it was just hard to detect.

"non-action"? Not sure what you mean by that (edit: had some coffee and figured it out), but both those locations are not close to Venice, so my point about the sirens and polygon are still pretty valid.

Storms were moving rapidly TOWARDS Venice at the time many kids would be waiting or on bus. And more storms on tap from now … on.

Luckily the second wave is already east of the metro. If that front, was a little slower we would be talking about tornado warnings in the metro again now.

They 100% decided to make the polygon for the whole line because Saturday night was still fresh on their minds. It was the kind of setup where a new area of spin could quickly form anywhere along the line.
THIS….Venice or not. A) Grandma on Cashion Place in Venice was glad be
awakened and prepared unlike B) Aunt in SOKC, who wasn’t prepared and lost house. So previous poster in Venice? Um,
after what happened yesterday and what happened years ago to the school kids in Moore….This will happen every time.

Storms were moving rapidly TOWARDS Venice at the time many kids would be waiting or on bus. And more storms on tap from now … on.

Actually, there wouldn't be many/any kids in that/our area since OKC schools are out today anyway. :) I get what everybody is saying, though, but it seems like there's tons more "OMG, we're all going to die, cancel everything" (in general, not just this event) than there used to be, yeah, yeah, abundance of caution, etc., but still seems overboard at times when nothing pans out, seems like a too-far-in-advance kneejerk reaction, and disrupts all kinds of things. Wife left for work at 6:45 today, got slightly rained on, got told at 9 to go home at 11 and work from home the rest of the day, when all it will probably do is just rain (and not severely).

We can only know what we can only know and what we can't know for certain is the future. I would rather things get sometimes cancelled needlessly every once in a while rather than anyone die because we waited too late to adjust plans.

I didn't think we'd see tornados before we used our furnace this Fall but here we are.

Ponds are over flowing, lakes are filling up, the crazy wind is died down, and all the stupid dust has been washed off of everything. Couldn't have asked for anything more from this rain event.

There’s a chance that we’ll already have clinched one of our 10 rainiest Novembers on record by the end of Monday. It would take 4.67” of precipitation.

Looks like we will close this event with 5.68” of precipitation, good for the 6th rainiest November on record.

1) 1931 - 9.63”
2) 1899 - 7.80”
3) 1902 - 7.25”
4) 1895 - 5.79”
5) 1994 - 5.72”

We should get anywhere from 1-3” of additional precipitation with the next system from Thursday Evening through Saturday Morning, and with conditions looking favorable for the rainy pattern to continue through at least the middle of the month, the all-time record could be in reach.

It's too bad the event started on the 31st for the November record.

Again, an incredible rain event for the state and has stopped a potentially horrible fire season.

One of the wettest weeks statewide in a long time in what is typically not a very wet month. Many areas are back to normal or above-normal for the year. Lake Skiatook, which was 8 feet below normal last week, has already risen 3 feet and still rising.
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.168hr.png?cache_bust=1730754744865

It's the Tulsa's area's turn to get it for severe storms, including tornado warnings. TV channels 2, 6, 8, and 23 are covering it non-stop. Storms have cleared Tulsa and not in a tornado watch, but Adair and Cherokee Counties are under a tornado warning as of 3:15 pm. Tornado will probably bypass Tahlequah. Much of easter and southeastern Oklahoma is in a tornado watch.

The weather the next 7-10 days i'd what I call perfect Fall weather. It is what I was hoping for in all of October.

When do they update the drought monitor?

Every Thursday.

Every Thursday.

And it'll be for the preceding Wednesday through Tuesday (so Oct. 30-Nov. 5).

Looking ahead to the next storm system that will be coming through Friday-Saturday. Severe weather is possible especially Friday. Rain totals look to be widespread 1-2” with some areas in eastern OK seeing 3”+.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024110506/gfs_apcpn_scus_24.png

Looks like this next system is going to set up shop in western Oklahoma. El Reno and points west could see some significant rainfall.

When do they update the drought monitor?


And it'll be for the preceding Wednesday through Tuesday (so Oct. 30-Nov. 5).

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

massive change in the last week ..

now 0% of the state in D3 (extreme Drought) was 41.57% last week

only 41% of the state is at D2 last week 67.7 was at D2 or worse ..

Looks like this next system is going to set up shop in western Oklahoma. El Reno and points west could see some significant rainfall.

That will be a good place for it to setup according to the drought monitor.

What's the timeline for rain in OKC proper for tomorrow? Planning a trip out and trying to assess best time to hit the road.

What's the timeline for rain in OKC proper for tomorrow? Planning a trip out and trying to assess best time to hit the road.

There will be hit-or-miss showers and (non-severe) thunderstorms most of the day tomorrow, but the main wave looks to push through sometime in the early evening hours.

We're at November 7 and the thread is up to 5 pages. Multiple previous Novembers we only had one page for all November... Been a crazy month already!

Major snowstorm for SE CO and NE NM.

Latest HRRR on rainfall:

https://i.imgur.com/iJI0Epe.png

When are we thinking this will make is way to eastern OKC?

Obviously rain continues this AM for OKC. Then we will get a short afternoon break before the final wave/line of rain and storms pushes through this evening.

What another amazing rain event for the state as a whole!

Major snowstorm for SE CO and NE NM.

Latest HRRR on rainfall:

https://i.imgur.com/iJI0Epe.png

Possibly historic snowstorm in SE CO & NE NM. There may be places getting up to 4 feet before it's over!

Seems to be done for OKC?

Seems to be done for OKC?

There's more coming.

Western OK and the Panhandle getting in on the rain that the rest of the state had last weekend. Totals for central and eastern OK will continue to go up tonight into Saturday morning. Then a few days of amazing fall weather - sunny with highs in the 60's, lows in the 40's and light winds until another storm system cranks up the wind on Tuesday.
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.72hr.png?cache_bust=1731094731755

This looks a map of an above-average May/June certainly not November!
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.336hr.png?cache_bust=1731094925577

for OKC
this is now #4 on the November total rain record chart .. and very quickly approaching #3

1. 9.63" 1931
2. 7.80" 1899
3. 7.25" 1902
4. 6.37" 2024 (this is from before a lot of today)
5. 5.79" 1895