Bring on the State Fair and some rain.

Will somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the high supposed to be like 78 degrees today? I swear I checked the 7 day a day or so ago and it said that it would be a lot cooler. It is insanely muggy and rather hot outside. What happened to our cold front? Did it not come in?

Will somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the high supposed to be like 78 degrees today? I swear I checked the 7 day a day or so ago and it said that it would be a lot cooler. It is insanely muggy and rather hot outside. What happened to our cold front? Did it not come in?

No, it was 86 or so for the last week.

Bring on the State Fair and some rain.

Could we please for once have a nice cool day in the 70s for Senior Day.

Highly erratic storms with the last frontal system produced decent rainfall in some areas but many others saw very little.
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.120hr.png?cache_bust=1725195644876

Better rain chances for the Red River valley into Texas this week

Bust of a forecast if you ask me for this weekend so far. It's 90 out right now on Sunday. No rain at all west metro. Far cry from what I was seeing being reported around Tuesday Wednesday. Heavy rain temps low to mid 80's. OOPS

Bust of a forecast if you ask me for this weekend so far. It's 90 out right now on Sunday. No rain at all west metro. Far cry from what I was seeing being reported around Tuesday Wednesday. Heavy rain temps low to mid 80's. OOPS

They pick the most dramatic of all models and run with it every time.

It's the usual Fall is coming, then just kidding - more summer.

Absolutely glorious weather for late summer.

The mornings and evenings have been very pleasant with a nice light breeze.

GFS models are hinting at northwest flow bringing scattered storms to Oklahoma early Friday and again early Sunday. EURO not as optimistic. Otherwise highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s all week with noticeably lower humidity.

Four of us spent a long day around Enid today Geocaching. Usually this time of year we'd usually be carrying towels for sweat and have an ice chest of water. Then be absolutely wiped out by mid afternoon. Today we didn't take water and I don't think I sweat a drop. It was glorious!!!!!

Great September weather continues into this weekend.

Looking ahead, there is very little storm systems expected across the US, so drought conditions will build. Luckily here in OK we will be just outside the heat dome, so hopefully things won't get too crispy for us. The heat and drought will really be taking hold into the Upper Mississippi Valley.

It does look like the long-range outlook builds higher temperatures (90s) back into the region toward the end of September.

It's in the 100+ in hollywood the second summer. When do we expect the first fall front in OKC? Mid October?

Great September weather continues into this weekend.

Looking ahead, there is very little storm systems expected across the US, so drought conditions will build. Luckily here in OK we will be just outside the heat dome, so hopefully things won't get too crispy for us. The heat and drought will really be taking hold into the Upper Mississippi Valley.

It does look like the long-range outlook builds higher temperatures (90s) back into the region toward the end of September.

Driving around in the car today around 5:30 the outside air temp showed 93. And looking like 90s at the end of September. this is one of the thinks I really hate about living here.

Driving around in the car today around 5:30 the outside air temp showed 93. And looking like 90s at the end of September. this is one of the thinks I really hate about living here.

93 at the end of the summer is great weather ..

This weekends temps look great. Its going to get chilly eventually. Climatology speaking, the average daily highs drop .3 to .4 degrees each day in the months of September and October.

93 at the end of the summer is great weather ..

It's funny how quickly everyone forgets just how hot summers can be here. If you are complaining about 90F in the summer in OKC, you are definitely living in the wrong place.

I notice mostly the overnight temps. They make a huge difference. Nothing is worse than August heat opening the door at midnight and getting blasted by hot air.

The front is making its way through Oklahoma - not expecting any rainfall except in maybe SE OK. After a really nice weekend the heat and humidity return next week. Models are currently conflicted on where a tropical system in the western Gulf will move after it develops. The GFS shows it moving east of Oklahoma while the EURO and CMC are showing a more westerly track - we'll see. Otherwise it will be dry for the next two weeks before a more active storm track develops for the second half of September.

It's funny how quickly everyone forgets just how hot summers can be here. If you are complaining about 90F in the summer in OKC, you are definitely living in the wrong place.

No kidding. Especially if the humidity/dew point isn’t absurdly high. On a relatively dry day in the shade, 93 degrees is almost pleasant.

The weather has, this past week, been spectacular! Especially in the evenings!

Everyone is allowed to have an opinion. Someone upthread was saying 90s for the 2nd half of September. 2nd half of September is Fall. I for one would like to see some nice Fall weather. Highs in the 70s not 90s. Not having to mow the yard in October. Age has a lot to do with it also.

Everyone is allowed to have an opinion. Someone upthread was saying 90s for the 2nd half of September. 2nd half of September is Fall. I for one would like to see some nice Fall weather. Highs in the 70s not 90s. Not having to mow the yard in October. Age has a lot to do with it also.

to be clear only the last, just over, a 1/4 (8 days) of September is the fall

and average high below 80 doesn't start until September 27th .. (79.9)

Well thanks for clearing that up.... some people here.

There are a few things going on here, IMO. Meteorological summer starts on September 1st. Our average highs dip below 90F starting around September 4th, but we still have about ten days with highs in the 90’s in the average September. Furthermore, our recent Septembers have tended to be warmer than average, with the average high over the past thirty years being 85.4F, but the average over the past ten years being 86.5F. However, this year might break that trend.

I don't have a great deal of faith in forecasts more than couple days out and more than that my confidence drops rapidly. And that's based on 24 years of working with aviation professionals who consider flying weather of utmost importance.
That being said I live day to day weather wise. And today for driving around with the top down was WONDERFUL!!!! Tomorrow looks even better.

Looks like another swing and a miss for a tropical system affecting Oklahoma. The models have been pretty consistent moving this system further east. Still possible it could move further east - one of these could quickly erase our worsening drought conditions

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024090712/gfs_apcpn_scus_40.png

Loving the cool temps but can’t help but feel like we need some rain. It’s getting dry out there.

Crunchy grass weather.

6 to 10 day looks like above average temps again. We have left False Fall and entered Third Summer of Deception.

Loving the cool temps but can’t help but feel like we need some rain. It’s getting dry out there.

It’s coming - just have to wait another week for the pattern to change

GFS rainfall through next weekend
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091012/gfs_apcpn_scus_47.png

There will be a few rain chances this week starting Wednesday with higher chances NW then statewide starting Friday lasting into Monday. Decent rainfall totals still expected, we’ll know more mid-week.

There will be a few rain chances this week starting Wednesday with higher chances NW then statewide starting Friday lasting into Monday. Decent rainfall totals still expected, we’ll know more mid-week.

I feel like I've read similar posts from you for weeks now and it's dry as a bone (I'll have to look back). Hoping it's true this week!

I feel like I've read similar posts from you for weeks now and it's dry as a bone (I'll have to look back). Hoping it's true this week!

Well the last system Labor Day weekend was adversely affected by a tropical disturbance in the Gulf which limited rainfall totals except across eastern OK which picked up between 1-2”. Then Francine moved about 300 miles too far east and we got dry air on the backside. You’re right though the last two weeks have been unusually dry across the state. In fact Tulsa has not had rain the first two weeks of September only 7 times since 1895!

Strong signals the pattern will shift to cooler and wetter for the second half of September though. No idea how long it will last..

Buckle up end of the month is going to get active. Starting end of this weekend first of next week. Can't tell where too early could be Kansas/Nebraska Could be Kansas/Oklahoma too early too tell but rain and storms possible.

Saturday could see some rain. Next week mid week is looking much better. 37 days and counting

New GFS with basically nothing the rest of the month.

Jinxed again by BG

Jinxed again by BG

I'll wash my car today to un-jinx us! Just like the Festival of the Arts the State Fair always brings the rain.

And the CMC model is still pretty wet across OK to end the month. This handled Francine pretty well so we'll see.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091712/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Well Hurricane in the Eastern Gulf next week could bring our chances down as you get a north flow on the western half of the gulf so moisture might be in question next week.

I'll wash my car today to un-jinx us! Just like the Festival of the Arts the State Fair always brings the rain.

And the CMC model is still pretty wet across OK to end the month. This handled Francine pretty well so we'll see.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091712/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Might want to check that CMC again.

I'd caution people to keep in mind that many of these models ten-plus days out are kindred to the models that had a 60% chance of rain not even 24 hours before OU's season opener, and it was a beautiful night. As I've been told by other Mets over the years, models and forecasts that far out are essentially crapshoots.

Fantasycasts.

I'd caution people to keep in mind that many of these models ten-plus days out are kindred to the models that had a 60% chance of rain not even 24 hours before OU's season opener, and it was a beautiful night. As I've been told by other Mets over the years, models and forecasts that far out are essentially crapshoots.

What is a good amount of time that models "lock in" more? 4 days out or 2?

These droughts keep getting longer and longer.

What is a good amount of time that models "lock in" more? 4 days out or 2?

The tried and true 48 hour rule. Anything outside of 48 hours I just an outlier with signals of what could happen. Everything really starts zeroing in at 48 hours.

Well Hurricane in the Eastern Gulf next week could bring our chances down as you get a north flow on the western half of the gulf so moisture might be in question next week.

We've been screwed by tropical systems multiple times this year for this exact reason. If Beryl and/or Francine go 300 miles west we are 100% drought-free.

The tried and true 48 hour rule. Anything outside of 48 hours I just an outlier with signals of what could happen. Everything really starts zeroing in at 48 hours.
48 hours is my opinion also. Based on having jobs most of my career that relied on what the weather was going to do.

Let's face it weather technology still has a long ways to go. Weather forecasts are not any more accurate than they were 20 years ago.

This has been one of the driest Septembers that I can remember. We really need some rain or we’re going to have an awful fire season.

This has been one of the driest Septembers that I can remember. We really need some rain or we’re going to have an awful fire season.

Second driest in the last 100 years! https://x.com/okmesonet/status/1836404385641017802

Let's face it weather technology still has a long ways to go. Weather forecasts are not any more accurate than they were 20 years ago.
I don't think it's weather technology. It's Mother Nature. Systems can be exactly the same moving exactly the same way a few days out and just change drastically. The naming of Mother Nature and the reputation for women changing their minds constantly is probably on purpose.

Let's face it weather technology still has a long ways to go. Weather forecasts are not any more accurate than they were 20 years ago.

It's not technology, it's just nature. The butterfly effect has a lot to do with it.

Upper 70's for highs next week. I would be really excited about this but I think I would rather have rain the cooler temps at this point.

HRRR trying to develop some showers and thunderstorms across northern OK later tonight. If anything develops it will likely turn severe
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024091915/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_11.png

We need rain so bad. Ugh!!

Storms firing north of OKC! Slight chance these backbuild into the metro.

Storm chances looking better for Sunday night. Extremely hot this weekend - could break some heat records with temps around 100.

Glad to see OKC's going to get missed again. I think BG is actually a curse.

Bg?

Bg?

Haha, I'm giving BG918 a hard time. Every time he says it might rain in OKC, it doesn't.