August time, hot and dry continues - each day will basically be around 98-102. There is potential temperature relief late next week, but there may be a tropical system across the SE US that affects our weather. \

Looking at super long-range, just hot and dry. We will likely see short-term drought conditions really take over this month.

Well we had a good July in all honesty so I'll take a miserable August. Part of the summer charm around here. Stay cool folks.

A few places received some showers and brief thunderstorms this morning. There is a chance of additional redevelopment across mainly northern OK again early tomorrow morning.

HRRR 6 am Friday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024080118/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_17.png

We'll be right on the edge of the MCS moving southeast out of Kansas - if that nudges further south then northern OK could pick up decent rainfall at the end of next week into the following weekend. Southern OK looks to remain hot and dry.

My yard, especially the fescue, is not fond of the last few days! :(

Yea if you happen to be under one of these, you are very lucky.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2024080118/nam3km_apcpn_scus_9.png

As of 2:30 am, as expected storms are showing up in northwestern and north central Oklahoma and are stronger than the ones last night. Stillwater may get more than just the few hundredths of an inch it got the previous night.

The Panhandle continues its historic summer with another 2”+ of rain last night. They lead the state in rainfall this summer with over a FOOT of rain in the past 60 days!
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.1440hr.png?cache_bust=1722624628476

Typical August weather this week with highs near 100 and increasing humidity. Temps should cool back to the low 90’s this next weekend with slight rain chances mainly over western OK as an MCS dies out. The Panhandle could pick up another 3-4”. Huricane Debby will be the main weather story in Florida and Georgia, and will help bring us cooler and drier weather on the backside of the low pressure.

GFS forecasted rainfall through the weekend
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024080406/gfs_apcpn_scus_31.png

Possibly looking at a pattern change with cooler/wetter weather around 8/18-19

I am not a fan of this time of year.

Ridge break-down still looking decent this coming weekend. Should see some storm chances with NW flow, and 15-20 degree temperature relief. Looks to only last a few days though, before [likely] the hottest temperatures of the season hit us at the end of next week.

Enjoy the fall-like weather over the next several days. Highs on Saturday could top out in the upper 70's if your area sees rain. Decent rainfall on tap for many areas too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024080806/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_30.png

Timeline for rain saturday? Any chance it’s an overnight rain that moves out early saturday?

Cool front has moved through most of the state as of typing this. We could see some light rain chances Friday morning here in C OK, but the best shot will come late Friday night into early Saturday. I would say there is a decent chance that Saturday afternoon/evening is dry with a nice rain-cooled atmosphere in place.

It's great hearing the sound of wind as a cool front comes through.

So the 2" rain washout we were all promised all week for today is gonna go poof as it approaches OKC, at least as it appears on radar. So glad I cancelled my outdoor paint project for Saturday because of the "rainout. "

So the 2" rain washout we were all promised all week for today is gonna go poof as it approaches OKC, at least as it appears on radar. So glad I cancelled my outdoor paint project for Saturday because of the "rainout. "

The local meteorologists always go with the wettest models and always overestimate rain totals.

The local meteorologists always go with the wettest models and always overestimate rain totals.

What infuriates me is I made the mistake of listening to them. I was going to have my family over and have a small "paint party" for my outdoor shed. It was just going to be a fun time and I canx it because I heard the term "washout" once too often. The blame is on me. I have to stop listening to the model zombies on TV

What infuriates me is I made the mistake of listening to them. I was going to have my family over and have a small "paint party" for my outdoor shed. It was just going to be a fun time and I canx it because I heard the term "washout" once too often. The blame is on me. I have to stop listening to the model zombies on TV

You did the right thing. Rain will be here around 10 am. Should rain for a few hours.

Where is all this rain? West metro by outlet mall I'm only up to .22 for the last 3 days and it's Saturday afternoon?

Where is all this rain? West metro by outlet mall I'm only up to .22 for the last 3 days and it's Saturday afternoon?

I am doing my part to help.....I washed my truck today so should rain :)

HRRR showing heavy rain across mainly eastern OK from 7-10 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024081022/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_15.png

Where is all this rain? West metro by outlet mall I'm only up to .22 for the last 3 days and it's Saturday afternoon?

Be patient. According to the NWS forecast, it may rain as much as an inch by Sunday night.

Wow! Here is the rain! I’ll take it.

Wow this is insane!!

All time wettest day in August in OKC per NWS. What a rain!

All time wettest day in August in OKC per NWS. What a rain!

Top ten wettest day ever for OKC.

4 Full inches in the front rain gauge this morning! Near Memorial and MacArthur

Where is all this rain? West metro by outlet mall I'm only up to .22 for the last 3 days and it's Saturday afternoon?

I'm really glad this didn't age well. :)

We've measured 5.77" on our weather station so far here in the Waterloo/Kelly area and it's still coming down.

6.4 at Will Rogers.

3.5 inches in the rain gauge. Yukon

6.4 at Will Rogers.

Crazy amount of rain and thunder this morning. Woke me up about 430 and went to at least 830 am. I ilve by airport and my pool is overflowing. River across my front yard. Fortunately we have good run off

Where is all this rain? West metro by outlet mall I'm only up to .22 for the last 3 days and it's Saturday afternoon?

Did you find it? Lolol

Amazing rain, and much needed, as the heat returns very shortly! A nice respite from it, though.

This is the happiest any of the weather threads have ever been.

When we heat up later this week, the humidity from this rain is going to be miserable.

Top ten wettest day ever for OKC.

Given our weather history…this is an absolutely insane stat.

When we heat up later this week, the humidity from this rain is going to be miserable.

THERE’S THAT NEGATIVITY WE MISSED! hahaha

When we heat up later this week, the humidity from this rain is going to be miserable.

And the grass is gonna grow fast

Stillwater was a slacker. I got 2.42". As one of the doubters I wasn't expecting that much. But not now complaining since parts of the state last night only got less than .25, if any.

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

Last round of storms from this system moves through overnight - looks to be mainly north-central and NE

HRRR 1 am
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024081117/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

Hot and dry through Thursday then another chance of storms

6.4 at Will Rogers.

Got 6.9" here, 4mi east of the airport. Peak rainfall rate was 4in/hr at 5:55am according to my weather station.

Last round of storms from this system moves through overnight - looks to be mainly north-central and NE

HRRR 1 am
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024081117/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

Hot and dry through Thursday then another chance of storms

Stillwater, so far, got left out and only got a few hundredths. But what missed Stillwater is headed for Tulsa where probably at least an inch of rain will fall.

Meanwhile, a heat advisory is in effect for Monday with heat index values up to 107 expected.

Impressive totals in many areas with this storm system, and absolutely incredible for August typically one of the driest months
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png?cache_bust=1723470966627

^

I've grown to hate the Mesonet rain numbers; they only have two stations in all of OK County.

KFOR said yesterday that Will Rogers received almost 7 inches of rain and that most rain gauges in the OKC area showed 4 to 7 inches with some near Pauls Valley getting almost a foot. That's completely different than the Mesonet graphic and their numbers always seem quite a bit lower than my own experience.

I know there has been huge technological advancements in weather satellites, but I wonder if the lower number of Mesonet stations have impacted forecast accuracy? The super computers can only work off of what you feed them.

I know there has been huge technological advancements in weather satellites, but I wonder if the lower number of Mesonet stations have impacted forecast accuracy? The super computers can only work off of what you feed them.

It hasn’t; if anything, Oklahoma has better station coverage than most other areas. The Mesonet stations are additive, other places usually just have NWS-affiliated observation sites at airports which we also have.

Also, would encourage taking a look at the precipitation estimates on Mesonet as those tend to be fairly accurate.

COCORAHS has additional measurements from volunteers at maps.cocorahs.org (http://maps.cocorahs.org)

Holy cow, what a difference humidity makes.

One can use the Wundermap from wunderground to get weather data from individual weather stations in cities. Accuracy isn't bad from most of them. Use the right menu to pick out whatever you want. Or scroll the map to see nearby areas. The link works for me. Hopefully, it works for everybody.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=35.500&lon=-97.49&zoom=12&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=81&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.noc=1&rad.stm=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stateLines=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0

Tempest has its own version at: https://tempestwx.com/map/119776/35.5961/-97.3922/12

One can use the Wundermap from wunderground to get weather data from individual weather stations in cities. Accuracy isn't bad from most of them. Use the right menu to pick out whatever you want. Or scroll the map to see nearby areas. The link works for me. Hopefully, it works for everybody.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=35.500&lon=-97.49&zoom=12&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=81&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.noc=1&rad.stm=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stateLines=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0

Tempest has its own version at: https://tempestwx.com/map/119776/35.5961/-97.3922/12

There's also the Ambient Weather Network (https://ambientweather.net) too, which my personal weather station reports to. Lots of places to get crowdsourced weather info! Weather Underground is probably the biggest among them though.

Looking ahead there is still a decent chance of storms late Thursday and early Friday, though not as widespread as this past weekend. Oklahoma will be right on the edge of the heat dome over Texas which allow some storms to move southeast from Kansas where most of the rainfall will be concentrated

GFS rainfall forecast through the end of August
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024081306/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

The EURO is not as optimistic showing the heat dome pushing most rainfall more to the north and east
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024081300/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_64.png

I’m ready for fall.

Think there’s a reasonable chance our next sub-90 degree high doesn’t come until after Labor Day.

HRRR showing storms developing ahead of the front and moving south early morning Thursday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024081419/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

Just as a heads up, this morning's SPC Outlook still has the entire metro in Marginal (1 on the 1 to 5 scale) Risk for severe storms after 4:00 pm today. Wind and hail threat, if anything develops...

Thunderstorm chances increasing for both today and tomorrow, although today still looks like the best chance overall. Thinking coverage should peak around 6-10 p.m. this evening with a primary threat of damaging winds, secondary threat of large hail.

SPC has upgraded severe risk for all of I-44 to Slight for this evening.

I have a flight to catch tonight, so you're welcome OKC.

Storms expected to begin firing between 5-6 pm roughly along I-44 and move slowly south and east

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024081518/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_8.png

Feel like the HRRR is too far south with development and initiation is more likely to occur along the wind shift from Clinton to Ponca City. We shall see! Either way, think that storms will form close enough to the Metro for a solid precipitation chances.

Also not sure why the NWS hasn’t added in storm chances tomorrow evening. Tulsa Metro is favored at this time but would not take much of a shift for OKC to be under the gun once again. If storms do happen tomorrow, would likely be very similar to today’s threat with damaging winds and isolated large hail possible.

Chaotic storm evolution but for now, looks like the main area of convection is heading southwest of OKC.

Chaotic storm evolution but for now, looks like the main area of convection is heading southwest of OKC.

Thunder from storms just to the northwest and south of Stillwater but have since joined together. NWS forecast says chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Also, storm develop to the east of Tulsa.