Missed rain by about 30 miles.

I got .36". The Guthrie area got a lot more. For now, as of 11:15 pm, Tulsa and to the south of there is getting it with heavy storms, including some hail. 41st and Sheridan has stalled cars. KOTV-6.1 Tulsa is covering it non-stop and transferred the Late Show to 6.3. Their chief meteorologist, Travis Meyer thinks Tulsa won't make it to a 100 on Friday.

A new strong storm that popped up just to the south of Stillwater, merited a severe thunderstorm warning. It will miss Stillwater.

Best storm chances look to be between 11 p.m. and 3 a.m. overnight tonight. Would say overall probabilities are lower than yesterday. Would also expect less of a severe weather threat given no daytime heating and best forcing to our north.

Yesterday’s storms packed a pretty hefty punch in areas that did get hit, most notably a 71 mph wind gust at the Minco Mesonet site.

Tomorrow will be one of the hottest days of the year. Sunday will be bad as well. Beyond that, the ridge fortunately looks to retreat a bit to the west, finally opening up the Metro to some relief from this week’s oppressive heat/humidity. Expecting highs mainly in the lower/mid 90’s next week and afternoon dewpoints mixing out to the lower/mid 60’s by the end of next week, as opposed to the 70+ degree readings that have been common for the past five days and counting.

Severe thunderstorm watch out for the northern Metro as a cluster of storms has developed in NW OK. Models have not picked these up at all, so convective evolution is uncertain to say the least.

This map looks more like April or May and not August! Incredible rainfall across many areas the past couple weeks. The benefit of being right on the north edge of the high pressure resulting in NW flow.

Good thing because we dry out this next week but with “cooler” temps in the high 80’s/low 90’s

https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.336hr.png?cache_bust=1723905336173

The next week - two weeks looks as dry as it gets. Look for lower 90s for a stretch. Who wouldn’t take that for mid-August in OKC?

Next two weeks GFS rainfall forecast - dry pattern on the backside of the high pressure then the heat dome will move back over but should retreat enough to the south to bring NW flow similar to this past week closer to Labor Day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024081712/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

The heat blasting returns this weekend. Near 100F for OKC next few days.

Seasonally strong cold front looks to come through around next Friday or Saturday.

Seasonally strong cold front looks to come through around next Friday or Saturday.

No rain on OU's home opener, please.

Is it me or did it get really windy last night? I swear I thought I heard it but wasn’t sure. Woke up to stuff blown all over the place.

No rain on OU's home opener, please.

Decent chance of rain Friday night - better chances later in the weekend on Sunday-Monday

GFS rainfall through Monday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024082512/gfs_apcpn_scus_34.png

Decent chance of rain Friday night - better chances later in the weekend on Sunday-Monday

GFS rainfall through Monday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024082506/gfs_apcpn_scus_36.png

Missing a graphic?

Decent chance of rain Friday night - better chances later in the weekend on Sunday-Monday

GFS rainfall through Monday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024082512/gfs_apcpn_scus_34.png

Friday night as in "7-10pm" or "late overnight into Saturday?"

I reiterate my appeal for no rain on OU's opener.

Friday night as in "7-10pm" or "late overnight into Saturday?"

I reiterate my appeal for no rain on OU's opener.

Hard to tell right now as there could be a couple waves that occur at different times. Should be able to know if it looks likely during the game by Wednesday. Either way it does not look like a wash out like the 2009 opener vs Idaho State.

Hard to tell right now as there could be a couple waves that occur at different times. Should be able to know if it looks likely during the game by Wednesday. Either way it does not look like a wash out like the 2009 opener vs Idaho State.

That's hopeful. I just don't want to leave the game in the hands of the lightning police who will practically evacuate Norman for lighting spotted in Dallas. #sarcasm

Still looks like Thursday will be our last day with highs in the 90's for a while. Might have one final extended stretch of heat and humidity after Labor Day, but it's clear at this point that our hottest days are behind us.

Thank god

Right now it appears the best chances for rain are overnight Thursday into Friday Morning, and Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Evening. Severe weather threat looks very low.

Models are showing potentially two waves of rain - the first on Friday morning between 7-10 am and another between 5-8 pm which would affect the OU game. Doesn’t look like any severe weather though.

Models are showing potentially two waves of rain - the first on Friday morning between 7-10 am and another between 5-8 pm which would affect the OU game. Doesn’t look like any severe weather though.

All it takes is one lightning bolt to push the game back to 9pm to satisfy the lightning police.

Don't get me wrong, I know we need the rain, but dang it, a summer of 100 degree days and it rains on football opening day?? sigh.

Hey, weather gurus, it appears at least one model is pushing tomorrow evening rain farther into southern Oklahoma. KWTV this morning was jumping on board with that model this morning.

What say you?

Hey, weather gurus, it appears at least one model is pushing tomorrow evening rain farther into southern Oklahoma. KWTV this morning was jumping on board with that model this morning.

What say you?

This is the latest NAM model run. 7 PM Friday night looks like a close call for the OU game according to this.

19108

This is the latest NAM model run. 7 PM Friday night looks like a close call for the OU game according to this.

19108

Newest HRRR shows pretty close to the same

19110

Newest HRRR shows pretty close to the same

19110

NAM shows very much the same thing but perhaps just slightly farther south. Gonna be a stinking close call.

As of right now, I think it's trending pretty grim for getting the OU game in without any lightning delays.

As of right now, I think it's trending pretty grim for getting the OU game in without any lightning delays.

looking any better (or worse) today?

Still not looking great. Storms form roughly along the I-44 corridor sometime between 3:00 and 5:00. Not much storm motion to speak of, so not sure how far southeast of Norman they’ll be by 6:00.

Would expect the best rain/lightning chances to be along and east of the Duncan/Purcell/Shawnee line where storms have recently initiated, but there is still a small chance that they could backbuild into the Metro. Otherwise, rain chances after today are continuing to significantly decrease relative to what looked possible a few days ago. Temperatures will still stay slightly below average for the next week or so, with lows in the mid 60’s and highs in the mid 80’s.

The tropical low pressure in the Gulf is messing with our weather. The models are not doing a very good job with its influence

This cold front is on the underwhelming side at the moment. So stinking humid out.

I am in Norman right now and it has been easy to see the cumulus towering to the E/SE/S while the clouds around Norman proper get smaller, flatter, and now start to dissipate. The sun is in full force and it is *sticky hot* here right now. In other words, typical Oklahoma August.

The tropical low pressure in the Gulf is messing with our weather. The models are not doing a very good job with its influence

In all honesty, the NAM and HRRR I saw had these storms forming pretty darned close to these lines.

Seems like the OU game should most likely be okay.

Seems like the OU game should most likely be okay.

Three cheers for the NAM and HRRR.

Seems like the OU game should most likely be okay.

Not sure about the Lips show at the zoo, yet, though, going to take ponchos just in case.