Hot and humid start to the month. Friday looks cooler...

It was a nice 3-4 month reprieve but drought is on its way back across Oklahoma. Hopefully fall will bring some relief but La Nina typically means drier fall and winter weather across the state. The one x-factor will be tropical systems either hitting Texas and moving north or hitting the west coast of Mexico and moving northeast.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/month_drought.png

Friday and Saturday don’t look too bad, at least. Strongly suspect that the back half of this month is going to be absolute hell.

We now have a Cat 5 hurricane in the Atlantic: Beryl. It has been forecasted to weaken but if it stays together could impact the Texas coast early next week. With the high shifting east that opens up the possibility for some tropical moisture to move north into OK. The path will change everyday and it may avoid the U.S. entirely but something to watch this weekend especially if heading toward the Texas Gulf coast.

https://media.foxweather.com/weather/AL02%20Track%20Confidence.png

man if it doesn't weaken Belize and the Yucatan are going to get smoked ..

Thursday night is looking better for rain/storm chances. Doesn't look like any crazy amounts, but a drink and temperature relief is always welcome.

man if it doesn't weaken Belize and the Yucatan are going to get smoked ..

Looking like a direct hit for Jamaica. Should weaken before reaching the Yucatan.

GFS showing Beryl landfall in Texas then moving north into Oklahoma Wednesday into Friday next week. Likely will change but would be amazing if it happens.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024070212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_33.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024070212/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Thursday night:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2024070312/fv3-hires_ref_frzn_scus_34.png

Is the Sahara dust cloud still over the gulf region into Texas and, if l recall, shouldn't it help keep the hurricane strength down a bit?

SPC has upgraded the region to Slight Risk for tonight’s storms.

My AC and wallet will enjoy the short break this week.

Storms begin firing around 5 pm with more coverage expected toward 7-8 pm

7 pm HRRR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024070417/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7.png

Looks like some small initiation a bit south of the greater metro.

Looks like it right over town!

finally getting some rain here in nw okc near lake hefner... all the storms going through okc have been just missing us to the east so very grateful for it

Really a nice soaker at my house near Penn Square and temp has dropped over 20 degrees.

I'll take every drop we can get in July & August.

finally getting some rain here in nw okc near lake hefner... all the storms going through okc have been just missing us to the east so very grateful for it

It’s interesting how much it can change over a short distance. I’m just to the SE of Lake Hefner and we get soaked every time a storm comes through the city it feels like.

SW OKC by airport got a good soaking. We were hanging by pool and was looking at planefinder at flights coming in. There was one from St Louis an one from SLC that they had both doing loops on their flight path. Wondered why but then as soon as the storm passed....they came right in.

On a side note for all the weather gurus on here........where do you think Beryl hits and at what strength? Just bought a beach house on South Padre and wondering if we are going to get hit.

SW OKC by airport got a good soaking. We were hanging by pool and was looking at planefinder at flights coming in. There was one from St Louis an one from SLC that they had both doing loops on their flight path. Wondered why but then as soon as the storm passed....they came right in.

On a side note for all the weather gurus on here........where do you think Beryl hits and at what strength? Just bought a beach house on South Padre and wondering if we are going to get hit.

Looks like Corpus to Houston on Monday is the target area per the 18Z GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024070518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_11.png

The 18Z EURO is showing a potentially bad scenario for Houston
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024070512/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_scus_24.png

FLOOD WATCH until Sat, 7/6 5:15pm
Areas Affected:
Harper - Woods - Alfalfa - Grant - Kay - Ellis - Woodward - Major - Garfield - Noble - Roger Mills - Dewey - Custer - Blaine - Kingfisher - Logan - Payne - Beckham - Wa****a - Caddo - Canadian - Oklahoma - Lincoln - Grady - McClain - Cleveland - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Harmon - Greer - Kiowa - Jackson - Tillman - Comanche - Stephens - Garvin - Murray - Pontotoc - Cotton - Jefferson - Carter - Love
Effective: Sat, 7/6 2:31am Updated: Sat, 7/6 3:07am Urgency: Future
Expires: Sat, 7/6 5:15pm Severity: Severe Certainty: Possible

Details:
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, northern, northwest,
southern, southwest, and western Oklahoma, including the following
counties, in central Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Grady,
Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, Oklahoma, Payne and
Pottawatomie. In east central Oklahoma, Pontotoc and Seminole. In
northern Oklahoma, Garfield, Grant, Kay and Noble. In northwest
Oklahoma, Alfalfa, Blaine, Dewey, Ellis, Harper, Major, Woods and
Woodward. In southern Oklahoma, Carter, Garvin, Jefferson, Love,
Murray and Stephens. In southwest Oklahoma, Caddo, Comanche,
Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa and Tillman. In western
Oklahoma, Beckham, Custer, Roger Mills and Wa****a.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Information:
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Looks like Corpus to Houston on Monday is the target area per the 18Z GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024070518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_11.png

The 18Z EURO is showing a potentially bad scenario for Houston
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024070512/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_scus_24.png

Boy did that take a turn north after going over the yucatan peninsula. They originally were saying mexico and then SPI and now Corpus/Houston area

Nice drink of water this morning with much of the Metro getting 1-2” of rain. Just to our northwest, Kingfisher County is approaching 5” of rain.

Would think this complex traveling much further south than modeled will likely scuff the severe weather potential later today, so that’s another benefit. Additional storms still appear possible overnight into tomorrow morning, with heavy rain once again the main threat.

Tomorrow and Tuesday should be beautiful July days with highs in the 80’s. Thereafter, the remnants of Beryl exit stage right and the heat dome starts to build back in. We will likely be pushing triple digits once again by the end of next weekend, and this looks to be an extended heat wave. So make sure to get outside and enjoy the next few days!

Sun is coming out…..Lots of time to heat up again?

Scattered storms are reforming across Central Oklahoma currently but don’t look too strong as of right now. Would think that the greatest severe weather chances this afternoon/evening will focus across the southwest quarter of the state which is where the atmosphere hasn’t yet been worked over.

I feel like we’re just being marinated for the heat later on this week.

Not too often that you see tropical storm feeder bands moving across Oklahoma.

HRRR 5 pm Monday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024070718/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_29.png

Pretty decent rainfall for early-July across the state. SE OK has been the only area really left out but they are likely going to see 2-3" from Beryl today with some of the rain bands making it as far west as Tulsa. Hot and dry weather returns this week into next week.

https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.240hr.png?cache_bust=1720455509979

Pretty decent rainfall for early-July across the state. SE OK has been the only area really left out but they are likely going to see 2-3" from Beryl today with some of the rain bands making it as far west as Tulsa. Hot and dry weather returns this week into next week.

https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.240hr.png?cache_bust=1720455509979

is there a county by county location map for the mesonet stations .. because in north Oklahoma county we received over 2 inches on Saturday over night into Sunday morning alone

^

Mesonet only has two stations in Oklahoma County; therefore, the correlation between what they report and what any particular area actually receives is almost nonexistent.

is there a county by county location map for the mesonet stations .. because in north Oklahoma county we received over 2 inches on Saturday over night into Sunday morning alone

https://www.mesonet.org/about/mesonet-sites

There used to be a Mesonet site at Britton & Broadway Extension, but it's been retired since 2018 - "Land was reclaimed by property owner." There also used to be a Mesonet site in west OKC (at OSU-OKC maybe?) retired in 2015 for the same reason.

^^^^^^^^^
You can find out quite a bit by clicking through to the individual decommissioned sites, including photos, panoramic photos of the sites, topographic maps, etc.. I also went one step further in the case of the OKCW retired site, looking at Google Maps images from before it was retired.

In the case of OKCN (Britton and Broadway Extension), it was on land that is now being developed as The Half. In the case of OKCW (OSU OKC), it was on land that required extensive site work for the new building they built on campus in 2015.

If you're feeling nosy, poke around on https://ambientweather.net/. These are private weather stations reporting to the internet... you can hide your actual location so it might not be full accurate, but the hiding feature still places the map dot within a few miles...

As we're going down memory lane, OKC and the OK Mesonet partnered for a few years on an OKC-specific micronet. It was great. https://www.mesonet.org/research/past-projects/okc-micronet#:~:text=The%20Oklahoma%20City%20Micronet% 20(OKCNet,the%20Oklahoma%20Mesonet%20(a%20joint

is there a county by county location map for the mesonet stations .. because in north Oklahoma county we received over 2 inches on Saturday over night into Sunday morning alone

Mesonet isn’t exact but shows general trends based on the readings at its statewide network of sites. Summertime storms can be especially problematic due to their isolated nature.

https://www.mesonet.org/about/mesonet-sites

There used to be a Mesonet site at Britton & Broadway Extension, but it's been retired since 2018 - "Land was reclaimed by property owner." There also used to be a Mesonet site in west OKC (at OSU-OKC maybe?) retired in 2015 for the same reason.

thank you

If you're feeling nosy, poke around on https://ambientweather.net/. These are private weather stations reporting to the internet... you can hide your actual location so it might not be full accurate, but the hiding feature still places the map dot within a few miles...

As we're going down memory lane, OKC and the OK Mesonet partnered for a few years on an OKC-specific micronet. It was great. https://www.mesonet.org/research/past-projects/okc-micronet#:~:text=The%20Oklahoma%20City%20Micronet% 20(OKCNet,the%20Oklahoma%20Mesonet%20(a%20joint

the station nearest my house shows over 3.5 inches in the last few days which is much closer to what we observed ...

thanks for the link ..

Not too often that you see tropical storm feeder bands moving across Oklahoma.

HRRR 5 pm Monday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024070718/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_29.png

Stillwater only got a few sprinkles from it early Monday evening.

Stillwater only got a few sprinkles from it early Monday evening.

McCurtain and LeFlore counties were the biggest beneficiaries from Beryl. If it moves few hundred miles west it erases the drought across Texas and Oklahoma, but alas it didn’t. Definitely thankful for the rainfall this past week, it may be a while before we see anything meaningful again as the Heat Dome returns.

Seeing potential dome break-down coming around July 18. Until then, nothing too exciting - getting hotter and drier every day.

A dome break a week from now would be nice. At least we probably wouldn't be hitting any record breaking stretch of it being over 100 degrees.

Seeing potential dome break-down coming around July 18. Until then, nothing too exciting - getting hotter and drier every day.

It’s hot - but the lack of humidity makes it somewhat tolerable. By the 18th, I may change my tune! Ha

As much as we hate/complain about "the dome" it's an important weather feature for our continent since it brings the monsoon to the southwest U.S. Some areas get basically all of their annual precipitation from this, which is caused by the high pressure dome over the southern Plains.
https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/monsoon_southwest_setup_0.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551

If you're feeling nosy, poke around on https://ambientweather.net/. These are private weather stations reporting to the internet... you can hide your actual location so it might not be full accurate, but the hiding feature still places the map dot within a few miles...

As we're going down memory lane, OKC and the OK Mesonet partnered for a few years on an OKC-specific micronet. It was great. https://www.mesonet.org/research/past-projects/okc-micronet#:~:text=The%20Oklahoma%20City%20Micronet% 20(OKCNet,the%20Oklahoma%20Mesonet%20(a%20joint

Ambient Weather is pretty great - I use it with my personal weather station. AFAIK though it only works with Ambient Weather branded weather station gear so coverage is slightly more limited - for example, mine is the only station reporting data within the inner southside loop on that site. There's also a similar service from https://www.wunderground.com that is compatible with more brands of gear so there's a bit better coverage on that site. Mine doesn't currently report to WeatherUnderground but I'm considering setting that up too.

For reference, I've recorded 2.83" of rainfall since the beginning of the month.

Very hot and dry conditions for the next 5 days until a cold front moves south on Wednesday 7/17. Temps around 100 each day with continued high humidity.

Decent rain chances across the state look likely Wednesday into Thursday - some models are showing most rain in northern OK while others are showing SE OK. Temps in the 80's behind the front and maybe a stormy pattern developing for the end of July...

As much as we hate/complain about "the dome" it's an important weather feature for our continent since it brings the monsoon to the southwest U.S. Some areas get basically all of their annual precipitation from this, which is caused by the high pressure dome over the southern Plains.
https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/monsoon_southwest_setup_0.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551

Supposed to start up in CO Monday, until then 100+ in Denver along with you all. Hope the monsoon storms veer south to you all after they rain on us.

Supposed to start up in CO Monday, until then 100+ in Denver along with you all. Hope the monsoon storms veer south to you all after they rain on us.

The high pressure keeps the storms in CO as they ride “the ring of fire” around the high pressure dome.

Cold front still expected mid-day Wednesday with storms expected to fire ahead of it mainly in northern OK into KS starting tomorrow afternoon. Slight risk of severe weather, mainly wind. Another round of storms expected as the front pushes through on Wednesday. Rainfall totals don't look great but we'll take what we can get in mid-July.

GFS rainfall through Friday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024071512/gfs_apcpn_scus_14.png

Another storm moves through this weekend bringing more widespread storm chances then a series of storms will move through as the pattern shifts. This type of pattern is very unusual for late-July - look at these potential rainfall totals through the end of the month..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024071512/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Had a whopper of a water bill, so fingers crossed on some of that weekend precipitation!

I’ll eat my hat if we actually get up to 104 today like what’s currently being forecast. Think we’ll struggle to break triple digits with the current cloud cover.

At least isolated thunderstorm coverage appears possible late this afternoon. A more organized complex could make a run at the Metro overnight, but best chances seem to be a bit to our north. Damaging winds will be the main threat with both rounds.

Extended cooldown starting tomorrow. Think tomorrow is trending drier, and then Thursday and Friday appear dry as well. Much better storm chances and even cooler temperatures starting Saturday Afternoon. Would think we get at least one solid round of precipitation between Saturday and the middle of next week.

I’ll eat my hat if we actually get up to 104 today like what’s currently being forecast. Think we’ll struggle to break triple digits with the current cloud cover.

Yes, it's pretty nice out right now, only 86 at 1PM.

Thank goodness for the break in heat!

HRRR showing one more batch of storms that fires up with this wrap-around. Placement is hard to predict, but E of OKC is the best shot for meaningful rainfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024071712/hrrr_apcpn_scus_11.png

double post

Summer storms are notoriously hard to predict, especially odd-ball systems like this that shouldn't even be happening in mid-July. Areas from Tulsa north received 2-3" last night but areas to the south didn't get anything. If you didn't get any today there are additional storm chances through this weekend and into next week.

GFS rainfall through next weekend:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024071706/gfs_apcpn_scus_47.png

Really nice rain at my house near Penn Square.

I'd say about 1/3rd an inch.

Happy for some cooler temps for a while. Not a big fan of the dog days of summer.

The next week will probably be the nicest weather stretch [for July] I can remember for OKC. Very rare, get out and enjoy it.

Looks like the chances for good rains are disappearing.

Looks like the chances for good rains are disappearing.

Most of it has shifted south into Texas. But still 1-2" possible next week

GFS through next weekend
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024071812/gfs_apcpn_scus_41.png

The most Oklahoma City thing imaginable, rain moving south of us. At least for us just south of Tinker, rain has been scarce.

Should see a large MCS move through W KS tonight, but all models show it dying out before entering OK.

There will be random isolated storm chances basically the whole weekend, but no wash-out. The best chance for OKC is Saturday night.

Again, nothing to cancel plans over. So get outside and enjoy this amazing weather for July.