It's June 1. Time to start a new month's weather discussion thread.

For tonight in the NWS forecast for OKC there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

I don't think we will have to worry about big storms for awhile. It appears hot weather has begun c

Looks like the remnants of storms originating in the Texas panhandle are surviving long enough to reach central Oklahoma. What's left of them may have gusty winds, and maybe small hail, and are trucking NE at about 45. Odd little cluster of storms, because radar seems to show them "kinda" breaking down as they approach, but they're obviously holding together well enough to keep going.

Might drench the WCWS over the next hour or so, but those games don't start until 2pm.

Once again, rain is dying as it comes to okc. Feel like there’s a permanent lid over us this year.

Solid rain in NW OKC. I’ll take it!

Once again, rain is dying as it comes to okc. Feel like there’s a permanent lid over us this year.

I swear I read a variation of this comment every time it starts pouring at my house.

On top of a great rain, we have now lost power.

I swear I read a variation of this comment every time it starts pouring at my house.

Yeah I’m not sure where these parts of OKC that aren’t getting any rain. I still haven’t turned my sprinklers on yet.

Need this rain to reach SE OKC.

Edit on my last post:

Nevermind. Just got dumped on lol

Nice soak going on in central OKC. Didn’t expect it but I will take it.

Edit on my last post:

Nevermind. Just got dumped on lol

The reverse psychology worked! Haha

Yeah I’m not sure where these parts of OKC that aren’t getting any rain. I still haven’t turned my sprinklers on yet.

Well Will Rogers for one.

HRRR models are showing two separate MCS’ affecting Oklahoma tomorrow: the first moves through north-central and NE OK from mid-morning to noon and the other forms later tomorrow night and moves through central and SE OK early Tuesday.

Tornadoes in Southwest Oklahoma later today (Monday). Hum looking like maybe. Even close to the metro? Not likely but something to keep an eye on.

Tornadoes in Southwest Oklahoma later today (Monday). Hum looking like maybe. Even close to the metro? Not likely but something to keep an eye on.

This is a moderately complicated setup.

The storms in NW OK, which started yesterday afternoon in Kansas/E. Colorado, are expected to endure and roll through central OK and into SE OK later today.

Those storms will create their own outflow boundary toward SW OK that could create a region supporting development of severe thunderstorms with a (presently) lowish but nonzero risk of tornado development. I haven't looked at any models but I think there was talk that tornado risk may increase later today as things evolve - not sure about that.

7:56AM - The storms in NW OK appear to be weakening some as they approach OKC. A gust front is emerging ahead of the storms suggesting the tops may be falling in. Rain is still likely later this AM unless they completely disappear, but right now they're not as strong as when they entered the state

7:56AM - The storms in NW OK appear to be weakening some as they approach OKC. A gust front is emerging ahead of the storms suggesting the tops may be falling in. Rain is still likely later this AM unless they completely disappear, but right now they're not as strong as when they entered the state

We've heard this for 2 months. Lol

Strong winds and heavy rain in far NW OKC. Had 1.5 inches yesterday and adding on more today.

Looking like a solid chance of elevated supercells developing pretty much right over the Metro sometime between 9 p.m. and 12 a.m. tonight, then moving southeast. Potentially a significant hail threat given the amount of elevated instability that should be in place. Secondary threat of flash flooding with any training storms.

Possibly one more MCS tomorrow night, then Wednesday and Thursday look quieter. As we approach the weekend, we will once again be on the edge of the ridge and the orientation of the jet stream suggests the potential for a strong, long-lived MCS or two.

Hoping we can continue to stack up some good precipitation totals over the next week as I think it’s a matter of when, not if we head into an extended hot/dry stretch as La Niña gets established over the next several months. Just a matter of whether the pattern shift happens later this month, or potentially holds off until closer to mid-July.

Seems we have a pretty good cumulus field building up over OKC right now....

Tulsa TV stations are still covering the aftermath of the tornadoes in northeast Oklahoma. Today, the last 1000 customers in Claremore still without power got it restored. Yesterday, some places to the south and southeast of Tulsa got a little over 2 inches of rain. As with OKC, rains tonight are expected to start just outside Tulsa.

Meanwhile, weatherman Travis Meyer has been with KOTV-6 Tulsa for 19 years since 2005. Mike Morgan has been with KFOR longer than that, since 1993.

We've heard this for 2 months. Lol

Your time will come. Stillwater, which quite frequently gets bypassed, such as caused by the Stillwater split, has had two big soakers, so far, this spring. And fortunately, they came with no hail or very high winds.

Should see storm develop soon. May be just SE of OKC.

Meanwhile, weatherman Travis Meyer has been with KOTV-6 Tulsa for 19 years since 2005. Mike Morgan has been with KFOR longer than that, since 1993.

Travis Meyer was at KTUL for many years before moving to KOTV.

SVR Watch is out. Main threat is large hail and then damaging wind threat with leading edge of clusters.

Next round of storms likely forms NW of the Metro between 5-8 p.m. today and then moves through the Metro between 7-10 p.m. this evening. With high levels of instability in place, very large hail and significant wind gusts are possible.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be hot and sunny. Starting as early as overnight Thursday, we transition back to a NW flow pattern through at least the end of the weekend, resulting in a return of nightly MCS potential.

None-zero tornado threat this evening from SW to C OK. SPC has it pegged @ 2% currently.

So am I missing something? SPC shows most of OK in a "slight" risk area, but an area from roughly OKC to McAlester (diagonally) is in an *enhanced* risk? No Moderate region? Something odd going on?

So am I missing something? SPC shows most of OK in a "slight" risk area, but an area from roughly OKC to McAlester (diagonally) is in an *enhanced* risk? No Moderate region? Something odd going on?
Isn’t moderate the level between enhanced and high? If so, it seems correct.

Isn’t moderate the level between enhanced and high? If so, it seems correct.

Yeah, that's correct. I still think having an enhanced is kind of silly.

The enhanced is for the wind threat. The tornado threat is about 5% along I-40 corridor.

Isn’t moderate the level between enhanced and high? If so, it seems correct.

But there is no "moderate" - it goes from slight to enhanced.

SPC is indicating higher confidence in development of a severe storm complex in that area along with elevated tornado risk along I-40 east of OKC.

Yeah, that's correct. I still think having an enhanced is kind of silly.

The enhanced is for the wind threat. The tornado threat is about 5% along I-40 corridor.

Well I posted a comment about what I think is the excessive level of granularity particularly with PDS watches a couple of weeks ago. I personally think we need to achieve a better sense of balance in forecasting and warning amid decidedly imperfect knowledge.

But there is no "moderate" - it goes from slight to enhanced.

SPC is indicating higher confidence in development of a severe storm complex in that area along with elevated tornado risk along I-40 east of OKC.

Moderate is higher than Enhanced. Its for the 30% hatched wind threat, not the tornado threat.

Moderate is higher than Enhanced. Its for the 30% hatched wind threat, not the tornado threat.

*sigh* you're right. I don't know in what world "Enhanced" is *less* emphatic that "moderate" and I've lost track of the number of times that has tripped me. Dang.

Yes it can be confusing, but the criteria for the wind threat meets Enhanced, even though they increased tornado for C OK from 2 to 5%. That still does not meet Enhanced. Just look at the colors for clarification.

Should see supercells develop west of OKC and move ESE and form into a cluster, that is when the wind threat enhances to the E.

Yes it can be confusing, but the criteria for the wind threat meets Enhanced, even though they increased tornado for C OK from 2 to 5%. That still does not meet Enhanced. Just look at the colors for clarification.

Should see supercells develop west of OKC and move ESE and form into a cluster, that is when the wind threat enhances to the E.

Maybe that's part of the "information overload." Too many terms and too many subtleties.

What time are we looking at that? I've seen varying reports of expected initiation

Next round of storms likely forms NW of the Metro between 5-8 p.m. today and then moves through the Metro between 7-10 p.m. this evening. With high levels of instability in place, very large hail and significant wind gusts are possible.

Still favor a 7-10 p.m. timing for the Metro. Focus area might be a bit to the south of what was expected this morning. Any tornado potential will likely be related to subtle mesoscale forcing, similar to what happened in SW Oklahoma on April 30th and May 23rd.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming for the entire Metro within the next hour.

https://kfor.com/news/local/nws-norman-releases-latest-2024-tornado-count/

100 tornados and counting

Watch is out for all of C OK.



Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

My read of the situation right now is that the two small cells currently over Yukon and Downtown OKC are struggling to overcome whatever’s left of the cap. Appears to be another attempt at initiation out west from Thomas down to Weatherford. Not sure if this will actually get going before sunset, but would expect that robust convection will eventually fire in that general area and head towards the Metro.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Purple Effective: Tue, 6/4 4:55pm
Expires: Wed, 6/5 12:00am Severity: Severe Certainty: Possible
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Flash flood threat going to be high from this cell movement.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

Is this new?

Well Will Rogers for one.

For whatever it's worth: I'm ~4mi east of the airport and have recorded 4.11" of rain in the 3 days since this was posted, just for one data point. If I'm looking at the right data, the airport recorded 4.38" in the same time period.

Outside chance of an MCS swinging through the next two nights but low probability.

Otherwise we will make a run at 100F Saturday. But won’t quite make it. Basically find your favorite pool.

Chance of storms in W OK Tuesday then the HEAT DOME returns. Look for temps close to 100 F by next weekend.

This morning I was able to mow because my grass was completely dry. Is there any way to tell from the forecast which mornings my grass won’t be covered in dew? Guess it might have something to do with the dew point?

Oklahoma in the center of the donut hole
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024060918/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Ugh. We had an amazing summer last year. Think we’re going to pay for it this year. I mean, early June and we’re going to be approaching triple digits?!

Oklahoma in the center of the donut hole
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024060918/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Seems like usual.

Ugh. We had an amazing summer last year. Think we’re going to pay for it this year. I mean, early June and we’re going to be approaching triple digits?!

The last amazing summer was 2020 when the temp never eclipsed 100 with widespread rainfall. 2021 was decent but 2022 and 2023 were both above average for temps and lack of rainfall.

The last amazing summer was 2020 when the temp never eclipsed 100 with widespread rainfall. 2021 was decent but 2022 and 2023 were both above average for temps and lack of rainfall.

I don’t think this is correct. We had a ton of rain last summer. We also didn’t hit 100 deg until the end of July and had only a handful of days that approached 3 digit temps. I found the daily temps that support this but can’t find any graphs.

I don’t think this is correct. We had a ton of rain last summer. We also didn’t hit 100 deg until the end of July and had only a handful of days that approached 3 digit temps. I found the daily temps that support this but can’t find any graphs.

Last year we had 17 above 100, 2022 we had 24 above 100.

The way this summer is setting up right now feels a lot like 2011 to me. That was a rough one.

Edit: per news 9, we have had 6 days over 90 deg already, but by this point last summer, we only had 1 day over 90.

The way this summer is setting up right now feels a lot like 2011 to me. That was a rough one.

Edit: per news 9, we have had 6 days over 90 deg already, but by this point last summer, we only had 1 day over 90.

Oklahoma was already mostly in drought by this time in 2011, but June that year was abnormally hot and dry. Most of the state is currently drought free other than the NW corner and Panhandle.

It doesn’t look good for any kind of precip this month. Maybe we can get one of the MCS’ out of CO to head this way if the heat dome shifts east.

People are whispering "Heat Dome". Don't you say those words to me

People are whispering "Heat Dome". Don't you say those words to me

Unfortunately the heat dome is the reality of living in the southern Plains. Most of the models show it shifting east toward the end of the month - keep your fingers crossed, go wash your car, etc. Typically it doesn't become entrenched here until mid-July, part of which brings the southwest their annual monsoon.

We didn't pick up as much rain as we typically do in NE OK during the early-June MCS season. The storm track has stayed too far south with southern Oklahoma and north Texas as the main beneficiaries. Kansas has also picked up a lot of recent rainfall which is good news as most of western KS is still in a severe drought.

Last two weeks
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.336hr.png?cache_bust=1718113462265

Rainfall through next weekend. A couple chances for mainly northern OK starting Saturday night and then again at the end of next week. Lots of rain forecasted over the next couple weeks in Kansas, hopefully some of that heads south
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024061212/gfs_apcpn_scus_46.png

June is our second wettest month of the year. Not great that the rain chances have already dried up for us. Hopefully July will see some rain move in otherwise August could be rough.