I wonder if the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon after this mornings round of storms?

I wonder if the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon after this mornings round of storms?

The other question is whether these storms will create an outflow boundary for other convection.

What a goofy setup

Here's a crazy one for you: There's a reverse-rotating (anticyclonic) tornado in s. Oklahoma right now near Grandfield.

Did *anyone* see these tornadoes coming today? Wow.

I know Anti-Cyclonic is the term used by all Meteorologists, but this one term has always bothered me. It should be Counter-Cyclonic. Anti-Cyclonic would be no spin at all. sorry. just a personal pet peeve, that I have been told many times before by actual Meteorologists that I'm wrong. but I bring it up every time there is a reverse-rotating tornado

Welcome to May. Some historical data for May in Oklahoma from 1950 to present day.

There have been a total of 1776 tornados in May of which;

• 122 were F?/EF?
• 699 were F0/EF0
• 569 were F1/EF1
• 262 were F2/EF2
• 89 were F3/EF3
• 29 were F4/EF4
• 6 were F5/EF5

Anyone creating a “May” board?

Done.

18797

The models are in a bit of disagreement currently. Some are showing that the atmosphere can recharge and give a nice wave of storms in south central ok and others are showing just a general pattern of rain with some thunder possible. Either way, doesn’t look like tonight will impact the northern sides of okc. Then again, not sure how solid these models have been this spring so we’ll just have to see.

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

Currently observing Stratocumulus Radiatus clouds in the South Metro which tells me the airmass is relatively stable at this time. So any high end severe will most likely remain in the Texas Panhandle and far Western Oklahoma.

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

I'm just an observer and not a meteorologist by any means, but can someone tell me why the dewpoint in Garden City, Kansas is only 56 and they are under a tornado watch? Does actual temperature of 81 play a bigger role than the dewpoint? Ours is 60 and hopefully you are right about us getting any.

I'm just an observer and not a meteorologist by any means, but can someone tell me why the dewpoint in Garden City, Kansas is only 56 and they are under a tornado watch? Does actual temperature of 81 play a bigger role than the dewpoint? Ours is 60 and hopefully you are right about us getting any.

Garden City is much closer to the intersection of the surface low, dryline, and warm front which will likely provide enough forcing for at least isolated convection up there. As far as OKC is concerned, the dryline has retreated west compared to yesterday and this morning's storms also stabilized our atmosphere. Both of these factors mean that unlike yesterday, there is a very low chance of convective initiation in Oklahoma today, though we will likely see a complex of gradually weakening storms propagate into the state from the Texas Panhandle overnight..

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

Stillwater is on the northern fringes of the system as of 3:45 am and might get a few hundreds of an inch of rain besides just the current sprinkles. If no more than just sprinkles, then the wind is sure blowing. The wind is a lot easier to count on.

SPC has outlined 15% probability of severe storms for this coming Monday evening.

Some storms are trying to fire off SW of the metro.

And already falling apart.

The Monday Hype train has taken off and it's only Thursday. SMH

The Monday Hype train has taken off and it's only Thursday. SMH

I'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike Morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Monday with nothing severe.

I'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike Morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Monday with nothing severe.

Look Harder. Based off one model run for a system 4 days out. I call that hype. https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1786187236930699698

Friday morning looks like a Strong cap might be in place for most of Oklahoma on Monday SPC has upped the risk for Kansas area which I agree with as of now. I'm sure it will change but might have a Cap to deal with

Monday looks like a very volatile environment but I suspect that much of the convection will end up occurring north of the KS/OK border. Certainly still worth keeping an eye on, especially because I do tend to favor the wave that marks the end of a lengthy active pattern. Which…after Monday, we finally look to quiet down for at least a few days. Between now and Monday, possibly a round or two of elevated storms, most likely around sunrise tomorrow and/or Sunday. But details are murky and the severe threat looks to be limited to marginal hail/wind in any case.

i'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on monday with nothing severe.

nm

Look Harder. Based off one model run for a system 4 days out. I call that hype. https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1786187236930699698

That comment by Morgan was made after you made your comment. This was his 6:15PM forecast and note that he said 20 to 30 percent chance of rain and no mention of severe weather on Monday.


https://kfor.com/video/mike-morgans-615pm-thursday-full-forecast/9660621/

Complex of elevated storms is looking to make a run towards at least the west Metro over the next hour or two. Marginally severe hail should be the main threat.

Storms appear to be weakening but still a nonzero threat of marginally severe hail; highest from Tuttle up into Mustang and Yukon at the moment.

Storms are now weakening more rapidly and the hail threat appears to be over.

It just died…like poof! Within a 5 mile push! ����*♀️

Monday could be BIG. I say could be. Even the NWS said "The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and
north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent
will tend to remain across the central Plains."

That all being said it only takes one or two storms to do a lot of damage. Stay weather aware. We should know a lot more tonight/tomorrow morning when the short range models come into play.

Day to moderate risk out for most of Western Oklahoma. How strong will the cap be? Are we looking at outbreak or we looking at just one or two storms? I'm leaning towards only a few storms right now as of Sunday morning however it only takes one storm look at what happened down in Sulphur

I have to admit the forecast plus ENH risk confuses me some, and I'm sure it's due to my own ignorance . To me, the forecast text still suggests the better severe environment is in NC Kansas, but then says something to the effect of if supercells form, they have a greater chance of being *more* intense or possibly tornadic - with that risk increasing into E. OK into the evening?

As I said, the forecast seems to say two things that aren't *entirely* contradictory, but perhaps arguably "hedging" even amid the ENH risk area, which is in *Western* OK. If Anon or Semi or whomever could clarify or smooth out that language it might be helpful.

Yeah the threat here in Oklahoma is more conditional. *If* storms can break the cap then they will be in some very high end parameter space and can do some really nasty things. Also, the window of possible activity goes from 2pm to 2am, so it could be similar to last Saturday where the daytime feels like a bust but the nocturnal threat kicks off thanks to the LLJ.

Sunday morning runs of models favor a Stillwater North all of Kansas event. Some keep no storms in the metro and blows them up after dark east of 35. We shall see these systems usually have a tendency to slow down some.

Thanks for the level headed analysis everyone. Mike Morgan over on social media using phrases like “Over the top dangerous.”

Thanks for the level headed analysis everyone. Mike Morgan over on social media using phrases like “Over the top dangerous.”

Mike Moron is a public menace.

Tomorrow's parameters are obviously concerning if something is able to initiate W/SW of the Metro, which is a solution that the short-range models are increasingly latching onto as a possibility. At this time, I would say it is more likely than not that we will at least get a couple of supercells developing along the dryline in Western OK.

Here's a much more detailed breakdown on another forum from someone whom I trust a lot: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60240-severe-weather-5-6-through-5-8-24/#comment-7294551

Is this what weather twitter would of been like May 3 1999? It's going absolutely crazy.

The HRRR is now showing *no* OK development through the 13Z run, but I recall the SPC saying the hat would be about the time parameters would be more conducive to development. Another model shows cell development in N. Central OK heading NE to Kansas around midday.
.

The HRRR is now showing *no* OK development through the 13Z run, but I recall the SPC saying the hat would be about the time parameters would be more conducive to development. Another model shows cell development in N. Central OK heading NE to Kansas around midday.
.

HRRR also missed on 4/27 iirc by not firing much in OK, yet we ended up with the nocturnal outbreak.

HRRR also missed on 4/27 iirc by not firing much in OK, yet we ended up with the nocturnal outbreak.

But as I pointed out, the run I mention ends before the prime conditions are in place, especially the LLJ. So things just continue to bear observation.

Thanks for the level headed analysis everyone. Mike Morgan over on social media using phrases like “Over the top dangerous.”

Doomsday Mike is already rounding into mid-season form.

To (very, very reluctantly) give Mike some credit, nocturnal long-track, violent tornadoes are indeed "over the top dangerous."

SPC folks are doing a good job of walking the line of expressing concern/informing the public:

https://x.com/ounwcm/status/1787270961114279965

As they so often do, NWS Norman has been messaging this exactly right, IMO. We are so fortunate to have them looking out for us.

00z HRRR run looks dangerous between Stillwater and Wichita, and then fires discrete cells in C OK around midnight tomorrow. Could see the SPC going high risk by morning.

00z HRRR run looks dangerous between Stillwater and Wichita, and then fires discrete cells in C OK around midnight tomorrow. Could see the SPC going high risk by morning.

I saw that too. I hope those are not warm sectors storm well ahead of the dryline. That would be very bad.

SPC considered going with a High Risk right off the bat, but ultimately decided on a Moderate Risk with the potential for a later upgrade. Additional outlooks should come out at around 8:00a, 11:30a, 3:00p, and 8:00p

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


...Oklahoma into southern Kansas...
Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon.
Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central
Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated
storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma
as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline
circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the
evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma.
Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will
favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front
overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be
strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when
coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary.

Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete
storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern
Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly
support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early
evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an
intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into
the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx
of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for
intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast
Oklahoma.

This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High
Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with
regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An
increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should
confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase.

Seems like there could be a high risk upgrade from south central Kansas to OKC. The moderate risk from OKC to Red River would be highly conditional based on storms breaking through the cap

Seems like there could be a high risk upgrade from south central Kansas to OKC. The moderate risk from OKC to Red River would be highly conditional based on storms breaking through the cap

You are pretty much dead-on, High Risk upgrade coming for much of the Metro at 8:00.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0646.html

Today will be the first High Risk outline issued in over a year. And the first one in Oklahoma specifically in almost 5 years.

You are pretty much dead-on, High Risk upgrade coming for much of the Metro at 8:00.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0646.html

I think that translates to a Super Mega Extreme risk in our local media market. Let's hope for a cap bust for at least the southern sides of that high risk.

Side note: kind of interesting they issued a mesoscale discussion for that when they could have waited for next outlook.

The cap is still strong and will require enough daytime heating to break it. If the sun comes out from OKC north and you get temps up past 80 all of the other ingredients are there. The LLJ tonight will keep any storms that form going further into NE OK

The cap is still strong and will require enough daytime heating to break it. If the sun comes out from OKC north and you get temps up past 80 all of the other ingredients are there. The LLJ tonight will keep any storms that form going further into NE OK

Others more learned than I might disagree, but it seems to me the forcing is so great that it will overcome any cap. That is, the cap may be strong, but the convection is *stronger*. An the mid-level shear is so high that if a storm goes up, it will almost certainly spin (mesoscale rotation) as it ascends

EDIT: qualifier - some of the SPC discussion indicates the forcing generally seems to decrease as you go farther into SW OK. The discussion associated with the high-risk forecast tends to emphasize the I-40 corridor going north but cautions the overall parameters are still very favorable for rotating storms.

I think confidence is pretty high from Norman up into Kansas that the cap will break hence the High risk being issued. NWS Norman page currently has a graphic with a note saying that strong tracked tornados could occur in any risk area.

Also, the most southern storm that successfully breaks the cap could potentially be the worse since it won't be choked off from a storm to its south.

When’s the next SPC guidance? 11ish CST?

When’s the next SPC guidance? 11ish CST?

11:30am then 3pm I believe.

Still only 68 outside as of 10am HUM

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1787508862515613976

They are not expecting clouds or cap to prevent storm development this afternoon or evening.

Satellite shows a line of mostly clearing just west of okc. Then a fast moving line of heavy clouds than NONE.

Am I looking at this correctly?

Yeah starting to wonder about the cap breaking myself. Heavy cloud cover and cool. I know the parameters are such that it shouldn’t matter, but I feel like heavy cloud cover and cool temperatures reduces the risk more often than not. I dunno. Still lots of time for the clouds to clear out.

Yeah starting to wonder about the cap breaking myself. Heavy cloud cover and cool. I know the parameters are such that it shouldn’t matter, but I feel like heavy cloud cover and cool temperatures reduces the risk more often than not. I dunno. Still lots of time for the clouds to clear out.

The language in the forecast seems to mitigate the highest end development in SW OK because the forcing isn't as substantial. I think that's why there's so much emphasis or discussion about the I-40 corridor. That informally seems to be a very rough and by no means carved in stone boundary between the "highest" risk area and the "less highest risk" area, if that makes sense.

18799

Satellite shows a line of mostly clearing just west of okc. Then a fast moving line of heavy clouds than NONE.

Am I looking at this correctly?

Looking at satellite imagery, I see mostly cloudy skies as far west as the easternmost tier of counties in the Texas Panhandle at the moment, with the clearing line moving east (however, the dryline isn’t far behind). That being said, would expect the low clouds to slowly decrease in coverage as the day goes on (you can already see this happening if you loop the satellite for a couple of hours).