The moisture depth in the 12z Fort Worth sounding was not great, and is definitely giving me pause about the magnitude of the threat in OKC. Could easily see an outcome where upscale growth from the initial NW Texas storms works to shut off the moisture return in OKC, not to mention the potential for left splits to come racing up I-44 into the Metro (these would still have a significant hail threat, but next to zero tornado potential). Still, it will only take a change in a few small variables to put the Metro right under the gun, so certainly would continue to keep a close eye on things.

For some reason this is giving me extreme anxiety today, much more so than other high alert days.

About to head up to Woodward as I suspect that the most photogenic storms of the day will be along the OK/KS border. As for OKC, currently thinking a 7-10 p.m. arrival time for the storms. Significant hail threat, lower tornado threat as I expect the main event for OKC to be left-splits from the NW Texas supercells. If NW Texas convection is less widespread than what has consistently been modeled, then the tornado threat for OKC could increase as fewer left-splits could open the door for more dominant supercells between I-40 and the Red River.

The latest models really wants to drop 4-5 super cells along I-35. Also the storm chasing discord all seem to agree moisture is pouring in faster and stronger than expected.

Here’s hoping for a bust! Ok or maybe one picturesque tornado over a field somewhere.

About to head up to Woodward as I suspect that the most photogenic storms of the day will be along the OK/KS border. As for OKC, currently thinking a 7-10 p.m. arrival time for the storms. Significant hail threat, lower tornado threat as I expect the main event for OKC to be left-splits from the NW Texas supercells. If NW Texas convection is less widespread than what has consistently been modeled, then the tornado threat for OKC could increase as fewer left-splits could open the door for more dominant supercells between I-40 and the Red River.

You can see an example of the above in the 16z HRRR, which models less convection in NW Texas and fires up a nasty looking supercell along the OK-51 corridor as a result.

HRRR has been crap so far this year.

HRRR has been crap so far this year.

Been listening to Tuttle, eh?

For the record, the NAM is coming around for large storms today too.

Radar showing initiation in NW Texas a good distance SW of Wichita Falls. FWIW.

Radar showing initiation in NW Texas a good distance SW of Wichita Falls. FWIW.

Can you expand on the implications of this?

PDS tornado watch incoming for western and central Oklahoma.

I really miss the weather chats we had access to back in the day. It was a real service

Can you expand on the implications pf this?

Prior discussion suggested the formation of storms in NW Texas *might* mitigate the bigger tornado threat in central Oklahoma. Stress *might*.

I really miss the weather chats we had access to back in the day. It was a real service

I remember the guy who ran those and I think actually started this weather-specifix forum/page. Think his name was David and he was super nice
Hated to see him leave but he got a good opportunity closer to home as I recall. We had live chats and realtime reporting, really something actually. He gave great information! Anon and Semi do a.great job here too.

I remember the guy who ran those and I think actually started this weather-specifix forum/page. Think his name was David and he was super nice
Hated to see him leave but he got a good opportunity closer to home as I recall. We had live chats and realtime reporting, really something actually. He gave great information! Anon and Semi do a.great job here too.

Went by "venture" around here.

Saw they sent up a new sounding balloon. Looks like a cap still in place but I have no idea if it’s stronger or weaker than what was expected. Anybody take a look yet?

Went by "venture" around here.

Yup. I had some contact with him and had a really very loosely discussed a possible software project I might help him with, but that was about the time he got his other opportunity.

PDS tornado watch incoming for western and central Oklahoma.

Tornado watch in yellow until 11pm. Orange means severe thunderstorm warning. Red means tornado warning.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png
https://stillwaterweather.com/images/severewxcodes.png

Models are really backing off of storms this afternoon. Wonder if the cap is just going to be too strong.

Went by "venture" around here.

Yeah that dude was the best.

The cap has really hurt OKC getting rainfall, all year, for the most part. Seems to breakdown too close to OKC for storms to hit OKC, but can go into eastern Oklahoma and dump 5 inches of rain in 2 hours.

Models are really backing off of storms this afternoon. Wonder if the cap is just going to be too strong.

Which ones?

Models are really backing off of storms this afternoon. Wonder if the cap is just going to be too strong.

South central storms are saying screw that cap. Don't know what will happen up north though

South central storms are saying screw that cap. Don't know what will happen up north though

Well, the CAP may *inhibit* development but it won't necessarily prevent existing storms from moving in. It may put a dent in their strength, however.

Interesting that news 9 is actually taking commercial breaks right now.

Interesting that news 9 is actually taking commercial breaks right now.

I was just thinking the same thing. Clearly they are not concerned as usual.

Storms really struggling when pushing east.

LLJ set to get stronger over the next hour or so. Just don’t know if these storms can hold together.

LLJ set to get stronger over the next hour or so. Just don’t know if these storms can hold together.

Yeah the LLJ is clearly the big remaining X-factor

Jeez. These storms are just straight up dying.

So for the people more in the know. What causes these storms to just die on these supposedly “perfect” conditions?

Strong cap in place and a weak low level jet.

Is this going to be yet another day with perfect conditions and a pds tornado watch where we see limited-to-no tornado development?

Big storm with pretty decent hook getting ready to cross the OK/TX border toward *maybe* Marietta

Those cells developing back behind this first round will be something to watch. They’ll be able to take advantage of the LLj.

So strange how the same places keep getting hit over and over this year (NW Oklahoma around Fairfield)

I feel like someone in the past has mentioned News9 has some kind of thing where if there is not a active Tornado Warning in their viewing area they aren't supposed to go wall to wall but I very well could be misremembering.

So strange how the same places keep getting hit over and over this year (NW Oklahoma around Fairfield)

I've always held but cannot prove with data that there's a pattern established early in the season for storm movement that we don't begin to understand.

Strong cap in place and a weak low level jet.

Is this going to be yet another day with perfect conditions and a pds tornado watch where we see limited-to-no tornado development?

At least the NWS predicts new rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible for OKC tonight. For Stillwater, NWS has it at less than a tenth of an inch possible. Unlike last time, it looks like the rain will bypass Stillwater. Don't mind it in the least if being bypassed also includes big hail and a tornado. But the night is still young.

Storms are trying to linger in central ok but just can’t get going. Think the cap strengthens after nightfall too.

8-9pm local was always the main window, so we are far from out of the woods yet. Dewpoints/temps still more than enough to kick off another round in SW/W OK

8-9pm local was always the main window, so we are far from out of the woods yet. Dewpoints/temps still more than enough to kick off another round in SW/W OK

Atmosphere is too worked up. Not seeing it happening.

8-9pm local was always the main window, so we are far from out of the woods yet. Dewpoints/temps still more than enough to kick off another round in SW/W OK

I would have sworn the NWS map I saw said OKC was 7-8? Maybe the maps have changed during the day.

I would have sworn the NWS map I saw said OKC was 7-8? Maybe the maps have changed during the day.

Yeah you’re right. Models hinted at storms firing at 7 in okc.

After a brief rainshower maybe 30 mins ago, clouds are kinda breaking up here from my little knothole in SW OKC. Not clearing or anything, just clouds have lightened and and it's just breezy. Temp is still 81.

Bottom of the 9th two strikes… it’s almost over. Some airmass questions, that’s why there’s a pitch left.

Absolutely unreal that we can’t get some decent rain today. Dewpoints still around 73 with a very active atmosphere. That cap has been in place over us it seems most of the season.

Fort Cobb storm now dissipating. That's all she wrote .

Edit. May have jump the gun there.

Jim Gardner needs to retire. The dude is such a drag on tv. Seems really grouchy and I feel like he’s been caught a few times complaining about David or something when his mic goes hot.

Jim Gardner needs to retire. The dude is such a drag on tv. Seems really grouchy and I feel like he’s been caught a few times complaining about David or something when his mic goes hot.

I'm surprised that drones have not replaced helicopters.

So this is the second PDS tornado watch that was issued for a massive area in the state in which there were maybe one or two tornadoes…and none of them were PDS’s. I know why it was issued. It was because the HRRR really ramped up storm development. However, the NAM 3 km nailed this system pretty well…especially the big cap in place.

I know they need to err on the side of caution on days like today, but they really need to dial these high resolution models a bit more…somehow. Maybe there will be a ton of good data from this spring to update and refine the models.

I definitely want some economist at OU to see if they could get a rough estimate of how much lost revenue there is from stores and shops closing early on days like today. My FB where I follow a lot of small local food and business shops was full of places closing up today around 3-4pm. Just curious for curious sake. I’m definitely glad they err on the side of caution.

So this is the second PDS tornado watch that was issued for a massive area in the state in which there were maybe one or two tornadoes…and none of them were PDS’s. I know why it was issued. It was because the HRRR really ramped up storm development. However, the NAM 3 km nailed this system pretty well…especially the big cap in place.

I know they need to err on the side of caution on days like today, but they really need to dial these high resolution models a bit more…somehow. Maybe there will be a ton of good data from this spring to update and refine the models.

Yeah today did not match anyone's expectations.

If I'm not mistaken, I believe the NWS is planning to retire the HRRR model later this year, replacing with other products within what I think is called their Rapid Response Radar Sytem

I think the other thing that hurts is the somewhat archaic way in which we gather data on the atmosphere with balloon releases once/twice per day. Granted, it’s probably the only way to get data on the upper atmosphere. However, why can’t we use data from planes to get a better handle on the lower atmosphere? Or do we do that already?

NWS consistently played down the probability, while not minimizing the risk. The probability never went over 40%, prioritizing the confidence in NAM since midweek.

Bottom of the 9th two strikes… it’s almost over. Some airmass questions, that’s why there’s a pitch left.

In Stillwater, a lightning delay at Cowgirl Stadium continues to let the severe storm just to the north of Stillwater pass on by. There has been no rain at the Cowgirl Stadium. Cowgirls led Arizona 10 to 3. Game might resume at 9:30 pm.

So is OKC metro in the clear now?

So is OKC metro in the clear now?. It appears so. Yes.

Reports of damage and injuries from tornadoes in Claremore and Valley View/Sanger, TX. As predicted isolated storms produced violent tornadoes. Thankfully the major metro areas were spared today.

Looks like we’re going to be moving into an actively rainy period over the next couple of weeks. Love rainy days!

Up here, Benton County (AR), Bentonville and Rogers were hit hard. Multiple homes and businesses gone and still residents trapped.