Much of northeastern Oklahoma now under a tornado watch. Tulsa and Bartlesville are on the west side of it. Northeastern Oklahoma is on the tail end of a strong line of storms that extend up to southern Minnesota. Maybe it will back build to OKC area.

In Stillwater, looking south at the very tail end of the storm line in northeast Oklahoma that extended NNE clear to Minnesota shortly after 5pm. It was never able to back build to the southeast part of the OKC metro.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stormsouth.jpeg

Facing east this time toward the storm line. It was in the Tulsa area at the time. As of 6pm, there was a tornado warning for Mayes County east of Tulsa. Hopefully, things don't get too bad in this far extending storm line. But IA looks especially hard hit. Greenfield, IA looks like another Sulphur.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stormeast.jpeg

Slight risk area is more SE OK today then covers most of the state Thursday. Saturday could also see a risk of statewide severe weather. Next week looks to be mostly quiet before another system moves in closer to 6/1-2

Will Rogers hasn't recorded an inch of rain on any one date since October 24.

Hopefully Saturday will be it for the season at least for the higher end tornado threat.

Dealing with deviating models again. The HRRR is showing a single large supercell not all that dissimilar from the other day which is pretty concerning. The high res NAM is showing a large outflow boundary out of Texas that wipes out all storm chances for us today. That seems extreme but we have seen it happen before.

The thick cloud deck combined with nebulous forcing leads me to believe that today won’t be too bad.

Saturday, on the other hand, is starting to look very serious.

The thick cloud deck combined with nebulous forcing leads me to believe that today won’t be too bad.

Saturday, on the other hand, is starting to look very serious.

Semi, I was just looking at the NAM through Saturday and it isn't showing *anything* in OK Saturday, but this is in sharp contrast to the language I just read from SPC. Is this just a matter of the models not catching up yet?

Semi, I was just looking at the NAM through Saturday and it isn't showing *anything* in OK Saturday, but this is in sharp contrast to the language I just read from SPC. Is this just a matter of the models not catching up yet?

My thought is that the extreme instability and relatively strong upper-level forcing should be enough to overcome capping issues. And any storm that forms will be capable of significant impacts given the volatile environment that will be in place. But stronger capping than anticipated is certainly a potential failure mode.

Meanwhile, heavy mist in Downtown OKC at the moment. Still not really seeing how we get enough atmosphere recovery for anything more than isolated activity later today. Would think the best chances today will focus across the Western 1/3rd of the state, closer to the dryline, and where there will be more breaks in the clouds. Think most of the convection will weaken relatively quickly as it approaches the Metro late this evening.

Absolutely fantastic discussion regarding today and Saturday from NWS Norman: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDOUN&e=202405231847

Dealing with deviating models again. The HRRR is showing a single large supercell not all that dissimilar from the other day which is pretty concerning. The high res NAM is showing a large outflow boundary out of Texas that wipes out all storm chances for us today. That seems extreme but we have seen it happen before.

HRRR nailed it with the single severe cell moving across the E side of OKC. Luckily it hasn’t been too bad.

Absolutely fantastic discussion regarding today and Saturday from NWS Norman: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDOUN&e=202405231847

So am I reading that correctly to say the Saturday threat is solidifying, but the emphasis may be slightly farther east than originally projected?

So am I reading that correctly to say the Saturday threat is solidifying, but the emphasis may be slightly farther east than originally projected?

Would track with eastern Oklahoma getting all the rain, and OKC missing out.

The video on 9 is incredible.

Hopefully Saturday will be it for the season at least for the higher end tornado threat.

I'm not becoming less worried until we can get past June 15th. An EF-3 tornado can cause a lot of damage. With the effects of climate change, I don't have a lot of hope there won't be an EF-4 or 5 with the heat building up.

What a remarkable storm season.

Is there any threat tonight for he metro? The storms south west are moving slower than I have ever seen before. I have the News9 app but it does not show future radar projections.

Will Rogers hasn't recorded an inch of rain on any one date since October 24.

For whatever it's worth: I am about 4 miles east of Will Rogers and I have a personal weather station. I've recorded more than 1" of rain in a single day several times since October 24th, 2023. Most notably, I recorded over 3" of rainfall on April 9th, 2024.

Checking the models and they’re really not showing anything for us for the rest of the night. It’s really strange though as the dewpoints are quite good sitting at 72. How a boundary is pushing through and we have 72 deg temps but aren’t seeing much in the way of rain is beyond me. Guess it must be a pretty weak boundary.

Would track with eastern Oklahoma getting all the rain, and OKC missing out.

I *wish* OKC would miss out, getting tired of having to mow more than once a week.

Would track with eastern Oklahoma getting all the rain, and OKC missing out.

OKC has gotten quite a bit of rain and we haven't even hit June which is usually the wettest month for OKC

SW Oklahoma storms will miss the Metro to the south (would expect that they’ll weaken fairly quickly over the next hour, as well)

OKC has gotten quite a bit of rain and we haven't even hit June which is usually the wettest month for OKC

I think the airport has gone well over 6 months without an inch of rain. With a switch to La Nina coming, OKC needs to stockpile rain for the dry summer and fall coming up.

I think the airport has gone well over 6 months without an inch of rain. With a switch to La Nina coming, OKC needs to stockpile rain for the dry summer and fall coming up.

lol just over 11% of the state is in a drought .... a year ago it was 50% .. and nothing outside the northwest corner is in a drought ..

Friendly reminder not to panic over a single model run (in this case, the 12z HRRR), but rather, treat it as an example of the high-end potential that tomorrow has and a reminder to stay weather aware as a result. Would guess that the SPC will extend the 10% hatched tornado risk into the Metro at the 12:30 p.m. Day Two update. Don’t think they’ll upgrade past that at this time as the potential for a cap bust is still very apparent (for example, the 12z 3km NAM doesn’t convect over the state at all).

Also, as an FYI, this evening will be absolutely gorgeous and possibly one of our final time periods without humidity until autumn. So, it’ll be a great opportunity to get outside if you’re not a fan of the summer heat.

lol just over 11% of the state is in a drought .... a year ago it was 50% .. and nothing outside the northwest corner is in a drought ..

Doesn't change the fact that the next 3 months or so, plus La Nina coming in, will wreak havoc on OKC.

That number will change drastically by July.

Friendly reminder not to panic over a single model run (in this case, the 12z HRRR), but rather, treat it as an example of the high-end potential that tomorrow has and a reminder to stay weather aware as a result. Would guess that the SPC will extend the 10% hatched tornado risk into the Metro at the 12:30 p.m. Day Two update. Don’t think they’ll upgrade past that at this time as the potential for a cap bust is still very apparent (for example, the 12z 3km NAM doesn’t convect over the state at all).

Also, as an FYI, this evening will be absolutely gorgeous and possibly one of our final time periods without humidity until autumn. So, it’ll be a great opportunity to get outside if you’re not a fan of the summer heat.

I went for a walk this morning around 8 and it was incredibly humid - are you saying the humidity will decrease as the day goes on?

I went for a walk this morning around 8 and it was incredibly humid - are you saying the humidity will decrease as the day goes on?

Yes, the front is just to the NW of OKC currently. NW winds will sweep down and bring in dryer air this afternoon and evening.

Looks to be like a cap is going to be in place tomorrow. Strong atmospheric instability in place however. Seems similar to our other setups this year. Some models struggling to break the cap and others are showing one or two storms. The dry line should be set up west of okc but it looks like storm initiation could be right on top of okc and points east. If the cap breaks, it could be a very busy day.

I think the airport has gone well over 6 months without an inch of rain. With a switch to La Nina coming, OKC needs to stockpile rain for the dry summer and fall coming up.

No

There are products besides the drought monitor out there......

https://www.mesonet.org/weather/rainfall/180-day-rainfall-accumulation?ref=1210

https://www.mesonet.org/weather/rainfall/30-day-rainfall-accumulation?ref=1210

I don't even think it works that way. Only so much stockpiling life and the Earth can do if its already at 'normal'.

Day 2 MDT issued, includes the entire metro area

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1794062551107694799

15% hatched tornado risk for the metro too

From the Day 2 Discussion



.Central and Southern Plains...
Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops.
Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late
afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with
the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across
western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and
surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening
southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should
easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail
is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived
supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked
and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet
increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and
unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected
with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind
speeds.

With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly
with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern
KS and far western MO late.

Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector
across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than
points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells
capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible
with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across
western and central OK and pars of northern TX.

Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline,
mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level
confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the
dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the
ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late
initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into
central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is
precluding a High Risk at this time.

Yes, the front is just to the NW of OKC currently. NW winds will sweep down and bring in dryer air this afternoon and evening.

I went to lunch earlier and noticed the change as the winds were blowing a bit and the air was cooler and pleasant :cool:

Damn that’s another pretty strongly worded discussion. Seen too many of these this year.

The tornados seems weird this year. The low level jet at night has really spooked me a couple times with what it’s done to some storms.

Ok, question for the experts: I am planning to go to Tulsa Saturday afternoon (around 2) and come back around 8. Is the threat in the turnpike area or further east? Trying to see if we need to change the trip to Sunday.

Ok, question for the experts: I am planning to go to Tulsa Saturday afternoon (around 2) and come back around 8. Is the threat in the turnpike area or further east? Trying to see if we need to change the trip to Sunday.

The threat are supercells that will form west of OKC proper, move across the I-35 corridor and then persist into Tulsa. Storms probably get to the metro around 7pm or so and then keep trucking west. I personally am planning to not be on the roads after 5pm tomorrow. Here's the NWS Norman tweet referencing the timeline: https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1794067300930253257

The threat are supercells that will form west of OKC proper, move across the I-35 corridor and then persist into Tulsa. Storms probably get to the metro around 7pm or so and then keep trucking west. I personally am planning to not be on the roads after 5pm tomorrow. Here's the NWS Norman tweet referencing the timeline: https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1794067300930253257

No reason for people here to read this as, “Don’t be on the roads,” tomorrow. He’s saying that he, personally, won’t be on the roads after 5pm tomorrow. The reality is that the brand new forecast from NWS shows an 80% chance of no storms at all tomorrow evening, severe or otherwise.
18847

No reason for people here to read this as, “Don’t be on the roads,” tomorrow. He’s saying that he, personally, won’t be on the roads after 5pm tomorrow. The reality is that the brand new forecast from NWS shows an 80% chance of no storms at all tomorrow evening, severe or otherwise.
18847

They say 20% chance. Does that mean 20% there will be anything at all or anywhere or 20% chance that something would impact a specific area?

I always get that confused.

They say 20% chance. Does that mean 20% there will be anything at all or anywhere or 20% chance that something would impact a specific area?

I always get that confused.

It means probability over the entire forecast area over the defined forecast time.

https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf (https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf)
Hope that ^^^^ helps.

Yes, the majority of folks will likely not see a drop of rain, but for folks in the line of the storms that do form, tomorrow is going to be really serious.

Yes, the majority of folks will likely not see a drop of rain, but for folks in the line of the storms that do form, tomorrow is going to be really serious.

It’s understandable, many people confuse this, but as I explained to Ginkasa, that’s not how it works. It’s not 20% of the people will be hit by storms and so, for those 20% it could be serious. Please read my post right before yours.

Edit: In short — the prediction by NWS is that there is a 20% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow evening for anywhere within the forecast area (Oklahoma City) at any time during the forecast window (evening).

It’s understandable, many people confuse this, but as I explained to Ginkasa, that’s not how it works. It’s not 20% of the people will be hit by storms and so, for those 20% it could be serious. Please read my post right before yours.

I did, thanks. My statement wasn't incorrect, and it's in line with what other mets are saying: https://x.com/tornadopayne/status/1794118302177886598

Yeah I really would not want to be on the turnpike when a tornado is imminent. There is really nothing out there.

I did, thanks. My statement wasn't incorrect, and it's in line with what other mets are saying: https://x.com/tornadopayne/status/1794118302177886598

Well, no, David never mentions the 20% probability. It goes without saying that being in the way of any storms that do (as in might) develop could be serious. But the chance of that happening is 20% for anybody and everybody within the entire forecast zone. So, as to your response to my original post, it was incorrect and misinformation. A 20% chance means a 20% chance. Your response to me is clear you believe the widespread misinformation about meteorological percentages.

Well, no, David never mentions the 20% probability. It goes without saying that being in the way of any storms that do (as in might) develop could be serious. But the chance of that happening is 20% for anybody and everybody within the entire forecast zone. So, as to your response to my original post, it was incorrect and misinformation. A 20% chance means a 20% chance. Your response to me is clear you believe the widespread misinformation about meteorological percentages.

The screenshot you posted was for Oklahoma City. The post you originally responded to was an answer to a question about being on the turnpike at 2pm and 8pm between Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

The screenshot you posted was for Oklahoma City. The post you originally responded to was an answer to a question about being on the turnpike at 2pm and 8pm between Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

What?!? MB, that doesn’t matter — it was PoliSciGuy’s reply (which used an OKC screenshot) that I responded to. Whether it was the Tulsa (40%) or OKC (20%) forecast he was responding to, it doesn’t matter, the math re: the misapplication of percentages is the same. Again, I feel like I’m having to defend facts and the widespread misuse when it comes to meteorological percentages. Ginkasa had kindly asked which application of percentages was correct, and I explained and after that PoliSciGuy was insisting he was correct. Would somebody else help me out here? I shouldn’t be having to explain this again.

What?!? MB, that doesn’t matter — it was PoliSciGuy’s reply (which used an OKC screenshot) that I responded to. Whether it was the Tulsa (40%) or OKC (20%) forecast he was responding to, it doesn’t matter, the math re: the misapplication of percentages is the same. Again, I feel like I’m having to defend facts and the widespread misuse when it comes to meteorological percentages. Ginkasa had kindly asked which application of percentages was correct, and I explained and after that PoliSciGuy was insisting he was correct. Would somebody else help me out here? I shouldn’t be having to explain this again.

Yeah this is getting a little silly. A 20% chance of Thunderstorms means a 20% chance in the given forecast area. It does not mean 20% WILL see storms and 80% WILL NOT. In fact, there could be a total of ZERO storms in the forecast area that had the 20% chance. Or just about everyone could see storms in the 20% forecast area. It simply means at this particular time, there's a 1 out of 5 chance someone in the 20% zone will encounter a thunderstorm in one specific location within that area during that specific forecast period.

Yeah this is getting a little silly. A 20% chance of Thunderstorms means a 20% chance in the given forecast area. It does not mean 20% WILL see storms and 80% WILL NOT. In fact, there could be a total of ZERO storms in the forecast area that had the 20% chance. Or just about everyone could see storms in the 20% forecast area. It simply means at this particular time, there's a 1 out of 5 chance someone in the 20% zone will encounter a thunderstorm in one specific location within that area during that specific forecast period.

Thank you, and you explained it better than me!

And that 20% could turn into 30 or 40% if forecasters look at the data in the early morning and see that the cap is much more breakable than expected. Really just have to wait and see.

The latest HRRR run came in, printed tornadic supercells all along the I-35 corridor from Wichita to Ardmore, prompting an SPC forecaster to tweet this:

https://x.com/TwisterKidMedia/status/1794179842549985479

I think we see a high by the 1am outlook

The latest HRRR run came in, printed tornadic supercells all along the I-35 corridor from Wichita to Ardmore, prompting an SPC forecaster to tweet this:

https://x.com/TwisterKidMedia/status/1794179842549985479

I think we see a high by the 1am outlook

And there you go. I would expect the point forecast percentages to go up to.

High risk is indeed coming for tomorrow https://twitter.com/kenjohnsonwx/status/1794181328054989185

Very concerned about dusk/early twilight tornadoes on a weekend with a lot of people camping/out on the lake or just driving around after sundown. Gonna be a very dangerous time between 7pm-9pm

Who wins tomorrow? The HRRR or the NAM? The NAM has been consistent with a very large cap in place tomorrow. It almost seems like an unreasonably large cap. Guess we’ll have to see. The HRRR has blown up a day that looks absolutely horrible.

And there you go. I would expect the point forecast percentages to go up to.

And it very well might.

So all the discussion/flare up is due to the HRRR run that basically looks like OK is on fire?

So all the discussion/flare up is due to the HRRR run that basically looks like OK is on fire?

Yes. Notable uptrend in convective coverage relative to previous runs. I actually think a cap bust is no longer the most likely failure mode for tomorrow. At this point, I’m thinking more about whether potential early initiation in NW Texas could act to suppress convection over Oklahoma. Maybe the environment is almost too volatile, resulting in storms choking on their own updrafts. Numerous storm-scale interactions could also have a deleterious effect, a la May 6th where the one storm that produced a violent tornado was the one that managed to remain isolated ahead of the main semi-discrete line of supercells which was largely a mess. Lastly…even with dewpoints in the lower 70’s, we could be looking at temperature/dewpoint spreads of nearly 20 degrees which tends to be unfavorable for tornadogenesis.

To be clear, tomorrow’s environment will be borderline historic, and I’d be surprised if the SPC doesn’t upgrade to a High Risk at some point (possibly as soon as the 1 a.m. outlook that’s about to be released). But always feels worth it to spend a little time thinking about what could cause a slam-dunk event to underperform, because there are no certainties when it comes to severe weather forecasting.

Messy setup today. It will be a nowcast kind of day. Local forecast discussion had a lot of uncertainty.

Looks like moisture is the fly in the ointment today, may prevent storms from firing and taking advantage of this atmosphere

Looks like moisture is the fly in the ointment today, may prevent storms from firing and taking advantage of this atmosphere

Dewpoints are projected to rise into the mid-70’s. Moisture is definitely not the problem today.

The latest high res NAM is coming around to breaking the cap and producing several large supercells. Looking to be a pretty rough day across Oklahoma. We still have, per that model, a strong cap in place over central Oklahoma, but the storms that initiate out west and move into the area will likely give the west side of okc some issues if we get a storm that moves into the area.

HRRR has storms moving into central OK around 5-6 pm. Anything that forms will likely be a supercell.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024052514/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_11.png