Amazing how it only takes 13 days into the month before someone brings up drought maps, especially considering some parts of the NE and S have received over 6" in May so far. Relax, people.

It's still interesting to see how feast or famine goes with the weather. Much of Kay County got clear of drought from big downpours, while the neighboring county to the west is in moderate drought. It's neighboring county, Woods, is in severe drought.

SPC has upgraded tomorrow evening's storms to Slight Risk across most of W and C OK.

SPC has upgraded tomorrow evening's storms to Slight Risk across most of W and C OK.

Is this likely an overnight event for the metro?

The weather twitter hype train is in full force for next week.

Is this likely an overnight event for the metro?

Yes, late afternoon/early evening storms will likely pass to our NW, then the Metro looks to gets in on the action by mid evening. Storm mode looks to be messy with multicell clusters, maybe some brief supercells as well. Tornado threat is very low, but hail/wind threat is worth mentioning. Also think there's a chance of street flooding with multiple rounds of convection. The active pattern looks to continue into Thursday/Thursday Night, though I do wonder if the atmosphere will be too worked over to maintain the severe threat by that point. Would expect a continued heavy rain/localized flash flood threat either way on Thursday as moisture profiles continue to improve, plus we will possibly be approaching an inch of rain with tomorrow night's storms.

Rain moves out by midday Friday. Friday evening is pleasant, but after that a ridge builds in and gives us our first real extended stretch of heat and humidity starting on Saturday. Could see our first 90 degree day of the year by this time next week. As others have mentioned, this tends to be a favorable pattern for nocturnal MCS activity. The MCS train is currently forecast to set up to our north and east, but this often trends south and west over time, so it's probably worth keeping an eye on.

Ridge appears to break down somewhat by Memorial weekend, and the resulting southwest flow could possibly return us to a favorable pattern for higher-end severe weather, so will be keeping an eye on that as well. Way too early to make any predictions, but it's getting some chatter on social media.

^Thank you. Appreciate all the good wx info that you all post here.

Just want to give a heads up too if you're going to the Thunder game it might really be raining at the end of the game so keep that in mind if you have to walk back to your car.

SPC upgraded NW OK to Enhanced Risk for tonight. This will be due to severe wind probabilities.

I agree with SEMI above, flooding threat will be high wherever the training clusters of storms setup. Could see a swath of 2-3" rainfall amounts somewhere from I-40 corridor out in W OK - trailing into C/NC OK.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely coming for Western Oklahoma in the next hour or so. Might include OKC or might stop a county to the west. This could be a situation where the storms buzz the Metro for several hours without actually moving in until Midnight or so, or it could a situation where mesoscale interactions result in the main convective complex sinking south and moving in several hours before what’s currently modeled. Will just have to wait and see what the evolution ends up being.

Note that while there is a currently a swath of convective cloudiness and isolated storms roughly from Hollis to Minco, it seems likely that the main area of initiation will be to the north of this. But at the same time, the small cell currently over Minco doesn’t really show any signs of weakening, so portions of the Metro will probably get a brief downpour during rush hour.

Last night's storms were kinda weird, right?

Got 0.42" near downtown Edmond - no complaints here since we didn't get any extreme here either. That wind was significant in various spots.

Today's Drought Monitor report shows improvement across the state, and since the data is only through early on May 14, next week's should be even better.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

Map released: Thurs. May 16, 2024
Data valid: May 14, 2024 at 8 a.m. EDT

I didn't know we were expecting possible bad weather last night but woke up to two fence panels on the ground. We are near NW 178th and May.

Last night's storms were kinda weird, right?

Got 0.42" near downtown Edmond - no complaints here since we didn't get any extreme here either. That wind was significant in various spots.

Today's Drought Monitor report shows improvement across the state, and since the data is only through early on May 14, next week's should be even better.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

Map released: Thurs. May 16, 2024
Data valid: May 14, 2024 at 8 a.m. EDT

NW OK finally received decent rainfall yesterday which is great news for the drought situation there. Osage County, which had been in severe drought for well over a year, is now drought free.

https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/del60day_rain.current.png?cache_bust=1715891832331

This will be our first "hot" weekend - humid with temps close to 90 across the state Saturday and Sunday. Another storm system will clip N OK Monday morning and again Wednesday morning.

If BIG IF but if the cap breaks in Western Ok things could get a bit interesting today.

If BIG IF but if the cap breaks in Western Ok things could get a bit interesting today.

HRRR shows a couple isolated cells breaking the cap into central OK from 8-10 pm. We’ll see if it happens. Better chance of the northern counties getting some action from the dying squall line around 3-4 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024051920/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_5.png

Channel 4 foretells some generous rainfall amounts for parts of eastern and central Oklahoma for this week through Saturday.

As the previous map foretold, for this evening much of the weather action is in much of central Kansas with nearly the entire state under a severe thunderstorm watch. Western Oklahoma isn't left out of the severe weather and bears watching for later tonight if activity doesn't fall apart.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainamounts525.JPG

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/nids/maps/realtime/Oklahoma.MosaicBREF.png?cache_bust=1691479459890

Large wedge tornado on the ground west of Geary.

This storm is moving towards the okc metro area. I’m not sure if the environment is favorable to maintain this storm however. Dewpoints look strong but I’m not sure about everything else.

NWS says they expected it would weaken as it moves closer. Hope that's the case.

This storm sure is taking its time to weaken.

The atmosphere further east is not as conducive but sometimes intense storms like this can stay together, and create their own mesocyclonic system.

Power flashes north of union city. 90 mph winds from the northwest. Strong SE winds coming in on the other side of hook. Wouldn’t be surprised if this thing drops a tornado soon.

Big tornado on the ground

The atmosphere further east is not as conducive but sometimes intense storms like this can stay together, and create their own mesocyclonic system.

I know. It's just crazy that the best looking storm to affect the metro of the year is happening in a marginal risk area.

KWTV has a tornado on the ground at Reno and Banner Road moving NE.

Wild. This is an impressive storm on a marginal day. David Payne is off tonight and is probably going nuts right now.

Wild. This is an impressive storm on a marginal day. David Payne is off tonight and is probably going nuts right now.

And FWIW Lacey Swope is doing a dynamite job in his stead. She's totally measured and zero hysteria.

And FWIW Lacey Swope is doing a dynamite job in his stead. She's totally measured and zero hysteria.

Feel like her storm chasers are feeding off of her calmness too.

The tornado video from one of the chasers on News 9 was wild. Looked like he was very close! And Lacey is doing phenomenal.

The roofers are happy tonight.

I think local weather mets in this market oughta use Swope as a model for this event. IMO she's knocking it out of the park with reasonable information and incredibly measured presentation.

Some small hail in heritage hills, but nothing to cause any damage.

Lacey is so good.

Well that was some unexpected weather anxiety for my Sunday evening. Hope El Reno is OK.

I think local weather mets in this market oughta use Swope as a model for this event. IMO she's knocking it out of the park with reasonable information and incredibly measured presentation.

Yeah, hopefully she wouldn't ramp up the doom if she became a chief meterologist. Too bad Mike Morgan came in today and didn't give Emily a chance.

Val and Amy Castor hydroplaned and flipped their truck. Luckily, they are ok.

The OKC storm sure dissipated quickly to nothing on its way out to the neighboring county. Stillwater is staying safe between the storms and will stay that way if the strong storms to the north, which haven't dissipated, don't drift too far to the south or new development forms. So far, it's only rained .04" from being on the fringes.

Yeah OKC definitely dodged a bullet this evening.

SE OKC went from tornado nearby to 3 minutes of rain. Draper keeps getting missed by rain. Just kinda frustrating. Meanwhile, Tulsa is about to get pummeled. Draper will lose water quickly over the summer, so it needs the fill up now.

Storms that were just to the north of Stillwater maintained intensity and took on a more ESE drift. There might have been new development. So, Stillwater has been pounded by heavy rain since around 1:30 am with rain now getting over 1.75". Compare that to the NWS forecast that overnight rainfall between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Fortunately, no hail or very high wind with the storm. The storm isn't going to stray far enough from east to avoid hitting Tulsa.

Meanwhile, amazing how all the severe thunderstorms in Kansas have just about wound down.

Val and Amy Castor hydroplaned and flipped their truck. Luckily, they are ok.

The live video of the hydroplaning and turning is startling.

SE OKC went from tornado nearby to 3 minutes of rain. Draper keeps getting missed by rain. Just kinda frustrating. Meanwhile, Tulsa is about to get pummeled. Draper will lose water quickly over the summer, so it needs the fill up now.

They fill Draper with water from lakes in Eastern Oklahoma. Hugo & Sardis I think.

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They fill Draper with water from lakes in Eastern Oklahoma. Hugo & Sardis I think.

Yep. Atoka Reservoir, McGee Creek Reservoir, and Sardis Reservoir... Draper is all about holding pumped water, not local collection.

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They fill Draper with water from lakes in Eastern Oklahoma. Hugo & Sardis I think.

Didn't know that. Thank you for the info!

Didn't know that. Thank you for the info!

Oh, there are big long discussions about this on a couple of threads here.

OKC is building a new 100 mile 72inch pipeline to add compacity and be backup to the existing line which itself be upgraded to a 72inch line eventually. We talk about it a lot ever time there is a drought in western Oklahoma. There is talk about why we rely so much on Lake Canton and why don't we pump some of that water back to the Lake Hefner water treatment plant.

Plus there was that whole legal drama over water rights with the tribes.

Not seeing great weather chances in the models for the next two weeks. Seeing a lot of solid dry line setups but not much storm initiation. This is the time of year where I really like to see those MCS’s come through and dump the rain. Hoping this isn’t going to be an early hot dry summer.

The amazing thing about yesterday is there wasn't a week worth of hype. There was only a slight risk. I'm not even sure the Metro had a risk yesterday by the SPC.

The amazing thing about yesterday is there wasn't a week worth of hype. There was only a slight risk. I'm not even sure the Metro had a risk yesterday by the SPC.

They updated the metro to marginal in the afternoon update...

18833

Caught a glimpse of the tornado with the help of the lightning. This was taken at about 9:45pm near Reno and Cemetery while the tornado was near Cimarron and 10th.

The amazing thing about yesterday is there wasn't a week worth of hype. There was only a slight risk. I'm not even sure the Metro had a risk yesterday by the SPC.
That's just Oklahoma.

The amazing thing about yesterday is there wasn't a week worth of hype. There was only a slight risk. I'm not even sure the Metro had a risk yesterday by the SPC.

Didn't a storm take a hard right when it really shouldn't have, and wasn't projected to?

Didn't a storm take a hard right when it really shouldn't have, and wasn't projected to?

When I first looked at the radar around 4:15, it looked like the northern edge of the metro would get some of the action from the more isolated southern storm, possibly further into the metro if it stayed on a more easterly track, but it felt like it just kept staying east and even southeast at times.

Sunday night turned into a dramatic night of storms as I wondered if I was going to stay on the fringes of the storms with .04" of rain to finding myself not too far from the bullseye of the storms with 3 downpours. When it was over had 2.60" of rain. Far north side of Stillwater had more with just over 3". Northeast of there in Glencoe, a Tempest station has just over 4". Further to the northeast of there, another Tempest station had 4.59" for the most I found. The Oklahoma mesonet rain map below shows gauges will never be widespread enough to catch the specific heaviest rain amounts in the state, though the darkest green spot on the map does correspond to where the 4+" amounts were.

About 4 more weeks to go before the stress of the spring storm season starts transitioning to the more settled summer months.

As previously mentioned, Val and Amy Castor of Stillwater, who are long time storm chasers for KWTV-9 of OKC, hydroplaned on I-40 in the OKC area and crashed. Fortunately, they were not hurt much. The video as it happened is here:
https://www.news9.com/story/664b69f2b7e0f282d3a9a651/val-castor-shares-update-after-tracking-severe-weather-sunday-night-

https://stillwaterweather.com/images/rainmay20-24.png

Storm chances return early morning Wednesday and Thursday as storm complexes move in from the NW. A Slight risk of severe weather mainly high winds and hail early Wednesday. Lower chances Friday and Saturday.

80 tornados so far in Oklahoma this year. I'm in disbelief that tornados have decreased from prior decades.

80 tornados so far in Oklahoma this year. I'm in disbelief that tornados have decreased from prior decades.
Feels like they have decreased in number, but increased in size and an increasing number of nocturnal twisters?

80 tornados so far in Oklahoma this year. I'm in disbelief that tornados have decreased from prior decades.

This year has been one of the most active Oklahoma has had since record keeping began in 1950. Only 7 other years had more tornadoes by the end of May, but even that could change by the time the month is over.

2019: 127
1999: 116
2011: 97
2015: 95
2010: 94
1960: 89
1957: 89
2024: 80

Well, it had been pretty quiet the past few years. This year has been active. Just a reminder that we still live in tornado alley. The question is will be back to quiet next year?

We are in a transition period from El Nino to La Nina. Those subtle timing differences can make a big difference.

The wind is going to be pretty wild over the next couple of weeks. I know it will help cool us down but I’m ready for a reprieve.

Getting a lot of tornado watch alerts on my phone here in NE OK. Always a little unnerving when they announce them long before the storm even forms. Plus it is apparently 94 degrees out there right now - hotter than expected...