That storm is booking it east around 65mph

Looks to be mostly a damaging wind threat with that South Metro storm at this time.

Looks to be mostly a damaging wind threat with that South Metro storm at this time.

So will the dryline come through and end this for tonight once this storm is past?

So will the dryline come through and end this for tonight once this storm is past?

Yes, this current round should be it for the Metro.

Could easily be 80 mph winds heading towards Moore right now. Not a tornado, but still a very dangerous storm.

Tornado warning issued for Valley Brook (Crossroads Mall) and SE OKC moving NE near 44th

And now there is a tornado warning for the SE Metro.

Literally like, 40 miles separated OKC getting 2 or more inches of rain compared to the. 25 or so we got tonight. Alas.

Hopefully no one is hurt with the tornado in EOC.

I get that, 100%. But courthouses serve a public purpose, that sometimes doesn't go on pause for a storm. But putting people first, sure. It is hard to bash. I am not bashing them, just saying it is ironic they closed at 2pm, and storms may not get anywhere near them til 2am. Not bashing, at all.

I will not comment on it any further.

We had the option to leave early as needed. Take leave, work from home, and everyone decided what was the best time was.
Earlier in the day, the metro was timed around rush hour, we were instructed to be home by then. Like mentioned above, some have an hour drive, some grabbed kids from daycare, etc. I'm not too far, left work later, but was home early before the evening commute. Closing 2-3PM seems early, but that gives everyone ample time to finish, close up and get home. * I also work for a government agency

We had the option to leave early as needed. Take leave, work from home, and everyone decided what was the best time was.
Earlier in the day, the metro was timed around rush hour, we were instructed to be home by then. Like mentioned above, some have an hour drive, some grabbed kids from daycare, etc. I'm not too far, left work later, but was home early before the evening commute. Closing 2-3PM seems early, but that gives everyone ample time to finish, close up and get home. * I also work for a government agency

I wasn't bashing them. Just saying it was ironic that it was almost 10 hours after they closed that storms hit anywhere near them. I'm not bashing safety of employees or the courthouse itself, I promise.

I wasn't bashing them. Just saying it was ironic that it was almost 10 hours after they closed that storms hit anywhere near them. I'm not bashing safety of employees or the courthouse itself, I promise.

I get your point. Really, here, need to get on the side of caution. And once the wall to wall coverage starts, it freaks everyone out, not much gets done productive wise.
I went to bed around 10 tonight and the phone alert woke me up. Yep, much later than we thought but heck, it's Oklahoma weather. Just so dang unpredictable as much as we try.

How the storm looked in early development just to the ESE of Stillwater that soon later greatly intensified and formed a tornado that struck Barnsdall and Bartlesville:

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/storm562024.jpg

Pictures and videos from Barnsdall are incredible. Wow.

Looks like the latter half of the GFS is starting to hint at more MCS-type systems coming from the northwest. These are typically our real rain makers. Hoping for some pretty good rain in the latter half of May and June!

Thursday May 16th. WOW.

Thursday May 16th. WOW.

What about Thursday May 16th??

Pictures and videos from Barnsdall are incredible. Wow.

One person was killed in Barnsdall. One missing. Some cars were tossed into Bird Creek that borders the town. 25 people had to be rescued from their homes. At least an EF-3 tornado.

The isolated severe storm bearing the Barnsdall tornado happened not long before it collided with the squall line to the west. Once absorbed by it just outside Bartlesville the tornado quickly faded away. Damage was substantial on the south side of Bartlesville. Thankfully, the unique downtown was spared. That is where Frank Lloyd Wright's only skyscraper is built.

Aerial view of Barnsdall by KOTV-6 Tulsa: https://www.newson6.com/story/663a406314116d0646bdee10/aerial-view:-tornado-damage-in-barnsdall-debris-scattered-along-bird-creek

Thursday May 16th. WOW.

Please stop, Mike Morgan.

Please stop, Mike Morgan.

June 2nd, Dang!!!

I don't understand. If so many people don't like Mike Morgan and don't trust him, why are so many even listening to him?

June 2nd, Dang!!!

September 36th is looking intense, as well! Jkjk

I don't understand. If so many people don't like Mike Morgan and don't trust him, why are so may even listening to him?

Comedy

Some people - myself included - would rather their employees be home safe with their families than still on the road to wherever they live (which could be anywhere in a one-hour radius) when a dangerous storm hits. Some people have kids they must pick up or otherwise deal with after they leave work. Some folks serve other family members as caretakers. Some folks deal with anxiety. Some offices take hours to shut down once the decision is made.

I’d never be able to forgive myself if I stayed open just a bit longer to squeeze out a few more dollars and someone got hurt because of my decision. It’s one I am forced to make many times each year, and it costs me plenty to exercise care. But the potential cost for NOT doing it is much, much higher.

Sometimes people who have strong opinions about how other people choose to run their businesses should just…stay in their own lane.

This 100%. Ridiculous that we are even having to explain this.

I don't understand. If so many people don't like Mike Morgan and don't trust him, why are so many even listening to him?

I actually like Mike and think he gets a bad rap. He was actually dead-on with his predictions for both of our last two high-end tornado days. He's usually willing to stick his neck out on a forecast before the others join the consensus.

That being said, I watch Damon Lane and think the KOCO weather team is the best.

Footage of the Bartlesville tornado from the entrance of the Hampton Inn. Those knuckleheads are lucky they didn't get themselves killed around the 0:55 second mark.

https://twitter.com/IntelPointAlert/status/1787712309332177044?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcam p%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I'm all for local meteorologists fore warning the public. And I accept that it's better to err on the side of safety. But on a personal note yesterday was very stressful and in my opinion unnecessarily. At least early in the day. My wife's office closed at 1pm. She sped home texting me that she was "shaking and having a panic attack". I talked her down and left work myself. When I got home she had taken a Xanax which she hadn't done in 4 years.
Keeping the public informed and warned is necessary. Panicking the public hours before something might happen is not necessary.
We have the science available now to follow weather and warn the public in time to take cover without freaking out all day.

If your wife freaked out at 1 pm yesterday over the weather, that’s on her, no? Could she not have gone outside and looked at the sky?

I'm all for local meteorologists fore warning the public. And I accept that it's better to err on the side of safety. But on a personal note yesterday was very stressful and in my opinion unnecessarily. At least early in the day. My wife's office closed at 1pm. She sped home texting me that she was "shaking and having a panic attack". I talked her down and left work myself. When I got home she had taken a Xanax which she hadn't done in 4 years.
Keeping the public informed and warned is necessary. Panicking the public hours before something might happen is not necessary.
We have the science available now to follow weather and warn the public in time to take cover without freaking out all day.

Maybe the problem is that we do have the science? Maybe we were better off with blissful ignorance? No one is saying to have a panic attack when there isn't even a storm heading your direction. No one is also saying to watch the news coverage 24/7(I think most people have one streaming service these days). There are other ways to get warnings or if your old timer there is a good old fashion weather radio.

In this day and age, most of us have become information junkies. People would hunt that information down and proceed to "freak out".

I'm sorry but even under the weather watches you had yesterday, if your office shuts down for thunderstorms that don't exist or are 100 miles away, that's absurd. I agree the media doesn't help by blaring out how OK is under a rarely issued level 15 ultra horrible tornado watch. I mean, they broadcast it nationally and even on local news in Denver! Let science be science but with weather apps, social media and TV/radio, send people home when there is a reason to.

While I trust the NWS with forecasting, I don't trust them with what is happening in realtime, especially given their reluctance to switch from 360s scans. That's where the local stations come in.

I feel like Oklahoma is lucky that some of our local stations had a bit of an arms race with their own radars. Not radar interpretation software - actual radar owned by the stations. I trust a TV-station-issued tornado warning in Oklahoma far more than I trust an NWS-issued tornado warning. Part of that is because I've seen the recent extreme misses of Joplin, Perryton, and Matador (and others) in the past year. We're lucky here that our NWS office is also the testbed for newer generations of weather radar, but there is still room for improvement across the system.

For some context, I grew up in far western Oklahoma. While I currently live in a suburb of OKC, I did spend much of my adult life in an area that was negatively affected by both the digital TV transition and the sellout of radio stations to the major networks. Over time, the radio stations became far less manned. One that was in our area had a person that would have all the OKC stations up as well as NEXRAD and tried to relay information as they could when there was severe weather, but eventually they became automated and now only carry the syndicated content. When the digital TV mandate kicked in, we lost reception out there. We might get a still image now and then if conditions aren't perfect, but usually it's nothing. It got even more unreliable as we got wind turbines in the LOS between us and the repeater towers.

For several years living out there, I was the designee to relay information. No sirens. Just an Allison House subscription, a good mobile data plan, and sitting on a hill several miles WSW (typically). The mobile data wasn't available at the house, even with repeater mounted on a 100ft tower.

While I haven't seen it here, I've seen it in other places. When the TV folks complain about 5G/4G limiting their chasers from reporting. It's the same sort of thing that cuts off rural Oklahomans. Most providers provide current generation and current generation minus 1. The problem is that 3g/4g/5g are all far more limited in range than previous generations of mobile connectivity, and it's generally not worth it to providers to provide upgraded or legacy coverage. Each generation has a more limited range than the previous. The reason the airlines have been telling you it's okay to turn off airplane mode in cruise is because you are generally out of ground tower range by that altitude.

Even in the last couple of years, I've appreciated the wall to wall coverage we've gotten once the storms have entered OKC DMA. There have been numerous times where I have been able to text family members about something heading their way according to 4/5/9 (I forget about Fox outside NASCAR, my apologies - I'm an older millennial) while they are unable to see it because of satellite degradation or simply outside of digital OTA range.

Not to change the topic too far, but does anyone have a good app for receiving Inclement weather alerts?

The Weather.com one seems hit or miss on whether it will actually provide the phone notification - I think the Nextdoor app is generally more reliable on getting the alerts. But I would like one that is more reliable.

I generally just check RadarScope if I know something bad is coming, but it doesn't do phone notifications.

Adults are responsible for the media they consume. Monday was a scary day - no reason to allow yourself to be bombarded by all sorts of bad or dubious actors, including local media personalities.

---

I don't know of any good free apps that provide push notifications. I just follow the NWS and local offices on Twitter and pay attention myself.

I'm sorry but even under the weather watches you had yesterday, if your office shuts down for thunderstorms that don't exist or are 100 miles away, that's absurd. I agree the media doesn't help by blaring out how OK is under a rarely issued level 15 ultra horrible tornado watch. I mean, they broadcast it nationally and even on local news in Denver! Let science be science but with weather apps, social media and TV/radio, send people home when there is a reason to.

We had a PDS tornado watch issued at 2pm local and the first storms firing by 3pm. If you wait for the storms to form before sending people home, you end up with a lot of people on the roads when the worst of the weather hits (see Mike Morgan's infamous "drive south!!!!" comments during the El Reno tornado). Monday morning quarterbacking this, especially from out of state, is just lazy criticism. This was the first high risk in OK in 5 years and the data very much supported it. Having the public super aware of the weather for an afternoon and evening every half decade as the atmosphere warrants isn't a bad outcome at all.

I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I don’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.

Speaking of models…the GFS is showing hints of a pretty bad setup for severe weather on the 16th. Need to watch carefully. Right now, it looks like the dry line is slated to be just west of okc. I’m sure that will move around as we get closer though.

I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I don’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.

Didn't it also kill these first storms off pretty quickly? I think SPC just didn't want to add confusion on having two flavors of tornado watches. Similar to the week prior. Really businesses and governments already made their decisions in their meeting with NWS earlier that morning. I don't think the models not showing early initiation at that point would have changed their decision. Only happens once every few years(hopefully) so no big deal.

Didn't it also kill these first storms off pretty quickly? I think SPC just didn't want to add confusion on having two flavors of tornado watches. Similar to the week prior. Really businesses and governments already made their decisions in their meeting with NWS earlier that morning. I don't think the models showing early initiation at that point. Only happens once every few years(hopefully) so no big deal.

By SPC guidelines, *any* watch in a high risk area is by default a PDS watch. Also, we're a couple of days after the event with a lot of data to look at and meteorologists and weather weenies are still trying to figure out what exactly went "wrong". A good humbling reminder that despite all our new technology and models, we still have a long way to go in understanding severe weather.

Yes, I mentioned the above discussion when it was happening in real-time if you go back in this thread. I expected the NWS to issue separate tornado watches, one for far W, then one for C OK. However, the HRRR spooked them into issuing a giant watch due to the possibility of cells developing ahead of the dryline. Obviously that only happened E of I-35, but those cells are some of the most dangerous (See Barnsdall).

The other instance that I pointed out a few pages back, the NWS was using verbiage in their MD to indicate storms over a certain area would be capable of strong, long-track tornados. But this was for development that had either just formed, or had not formed at all (yet).

I think in both cases, there was some premature wording used and watch issuance. I am not employed by the NWS, so definitely not an expert. But I would have waited for C OK initiation signs before blanketing it with the giant PDS watchbox. And I also would not have mentioned 'Strong tornadoes possible by 5-6pm" for an area that didn't even have a SVR warned storm.

Yes, I mentioned the above discussion when it was happening in real-time if you go back in this thread. I expected the NWS to issue separate tornado watches, one for far W, then one for C OK. However, the HRRR spooked them into issuing a giant watch due to the possibility of cells developing ahead of the dryline. Obviously that only happened E of I-35, but those cells are some of the most dangerous (See Barnsdall).

The other instance that I pointed out a few pages back, the NWS was using verbiage in their MD to indicate storms over a certain area would be capable of strong, long-track tornados. But this was for development that had either just formed, or had not formed at all (yet).

I think in both cases, there was some premature wording used and watch issuance. I am not employed by the NWS, so definitely not an expert. But I would have waited for C OK initiation signs before blanketing it with the giant PDS watchbox. And I also would not have mentioned 'Strong tornadoes possible by 5-6pm" for an area that didn't even have a SVR warned storm.

It was for public awareness reasons and I think the approval and coordination process for watches takes a little more time. They had a balloon launch at 1 that told them the cap was a little stronger at that point in time than what models were showing. That data probably came too late for them to digest it.

I'm sorry but even under the weather watches you had yesterday, if your office shuts down for thunderstorms that don't exist or are 100 miles away, that's absurd. I agree the media doesn't help by blaring out how OK is under a rarely issued level 15 ultra horrible tornado watch. I mean, they broadcast it nationally and even on local news in Denver! Let science be science but with weather apps, social media and TV/radio, send people home when there is a reason to.

The problem is there may not be storms anywhere at 2pm but they might be upon you at quitting time, 5 pm. Hopefully, most people would stay at work to wait for the storm to pass, rather than risk driving through it. Hail is probably a bigger risk than a tornado. But after it passes, there will likely be flash flooding in the streets. Better to be early and safe at home. If the whole workplace has to lock up at 5pm or shortly after, there may be no place to go to get safer.

I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I don’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.


I'm pretty sure models aren't an exact science but close enough to where they can make probable assumptions. Variables change all day, every day, every minute that change outcomes....timing etc. Do you want to wait and see if the models are correct or do you want to be surprised with a tornado at your door with little to no pre warning. I dont understand people that are critics of this...…You aren't going to know exact time, exact whatever until it happens., (no one has that ability) and if it doesnt...so what? You were prepared for the worst. We've had a few too many monsters to sit on our hands and wait for them to show up.

I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I donÂ’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.

No model is ever going to meet the robustness that we are looking for because we are trying to predict nature that is always evolving. The best thing that the experts can continue to do is effectively and responsibly communicate risk. They can continue to give the public as much lead time as possible to be safe during these weather events. If it means I leave work at 3:30 instead of 5, so be it. I would much rather my work day end than be interrupted because there's a cell approaching the metro. The last thing we ever want to see is rush hour traffic with a tornado on the ground in the metro a la May 2013. I remember people abandoning cars on i35 to get to cover. NWS communicates risk in the best way that they can with the tools that they have. I want those methods to continue to evolve.

Speaking of models…the GFS is showing hints of a pretty bad setup for severe weather on the 16th. Need to watch carefully. Right now, it looks like the dry line is slated to be just west of okc. I’m sure that will move around as we get closer though.

Already mentioned it already been attacked. :)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm27YjLnPHc&pp=ygUIVHdpc3RlcnM%3D

New Twisters trailer.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm27YjLnPHc&pp=ygUIVHdpc3RlcnM%3D

New Twisters trailer.

Everyone at the rodeo ignored the PDS watch issued the day before.

Storms moving through south-central OK including a severe cell that just went through Duncan. Southern parts of the OKC metro may get a storm in the next couple hours.

Looking toward the weekend storm chances return Sunday into Monday. Right now the severe weather threat appears to be on the low side.

Around here we always have to watch the weather, especially in May. May does not play by the rules.

Angry little thunderboomer built up in SW OK county rumbling ENE and one looking to try and form directly behind it around Mustang.

Don't think this precip area was expected to come *quite* this far north, but here we are.

I’m looking forward to a slow rainy day tomorrow. Love these days where these slow waves of rain push across the state all day. Hearing that rain and a clap of thunder every so often…that’s good napping weather right there.

I’m looking forward to a slow rainy day tomorrow. Love these days where these slow waves of rain push across the state all day. Hearing that rain and a clap of thunder every so often…that’s good napping weather right there.

Is OKC looking at rain tomorrow? If so, what time?

Is OKC looking at rain tomorrow? If so, what time?

Rain and some embedded thunderstorms in western OK are slowly moving east toward OKC. Somewhat drier air across eastern OK is a limiting factor but that should change later tonight. 0.5-1” expected across most areas.

Rain and some embedded thunderstorms in western OK are slowly moving east toward OKC. Somewhat drier air across eastern OK is a limiting factor but that should change later tonight. 0.5-1” expected across most areas.

That has turned out true for my Stillwater rain gauge. .34" fell before midnight and, so far, after midnight, .40".

It's still on the dry side around here and more so in northwestern Oklahoma:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_ok_trd.png

Yesterday was a great day to plant things. The ground was soft due to the rain Sunday morning, then it dried up and we got rain Monday morning.

That has turned out true for my Stillwater rain gauge. .34" fell before midnight and, so far, after midnight, .40".

It's still on the dry side around here and more so in northwestern Oklahoma:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_ok_trd.png

Drought is starting to return, especially for NW OK. And creeping SE. OKC will be there soon, most likely.

That was from May 7th. A lot of these areas saw .5 to 1 inch of rain the past seven days. The whole state is never going to be 'perfect' especially the west. Given that OKC has more rain in the forecast, I don't think it will be an issue for the metro. A couple of you talk like were the driest state when its far better than past years.

https://www.mesonet.org/weather/rainfall/7-day-rainfall-accumulation?ref=1210

Amazing how it only takes 13 days into the month before someone brings up drought maps, especially considering some parts of the NE and S have received over 6" in May so far. Relax, people.

Amazing how it only takes 13 days into the month before someone brings up drought maps, especially considering some parts of the NE and S have received over 6" in May so far. Relax, people.

Why are there so many negative people in this thread these days? If the dude wants to post a drought map, then he can post a drought map. Maybe it’s really important for him?

Maybe adding context and keeping things in perspective is important to me? Its a dated graphic.

Drought is starting to return, especially for NW OK. And creeping SE. OKC will be there soon, most likely.

Not returning anytime soon - the wet pattern looks to remain in place through at least the end of May. We could even see some flooding concerns if this verifies. June is our MCS season where we typically pick up a few more inches from nighttime thunderstorm complexes before the heat dome arrives and shuts things off in July. The more soil moisture we can get in May and June helps tremendously.

GFS forecasted rainfall through late May
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024051312/gfs_apcpn_scus_55.png

Maybe adding context and keeping things in perspective is important to me? Its a dated graphic.

While it's dated, it's the latest one until this Thursday.