Hopefully that comment is directed at closing things down early and not wishing for storms that will probably be producing destructive tornados.

As for the closing down things down early, it has been known for awhile this was going to be an late evening event, don't know everyone pulled the trigger so early. I'm seeing another cell form south of Sayre so North OKC and Edmond will be under the gun later tonight.

More at the places in OKC area closing at 3pm. I don't want tornados. But we can always use more rain. We can go months without it in the summer and fall, so we need all we can get.

Not hoping for tornados to hit anywhere.

I haven't studied the models, but there seems to be near unanimous consensus that this is the right atmosphere for a high-end outbreak of large, long-track tornadoes.

There was definitely a couple of runs from one model suggesting storm development right over OK county right at 3pm. That's almost certainly what drove the early closures. Fortunately, that didn't materialize.

Amarillo radar showing that additional SW development of this line is happening almost *exactly* at the intersection of I-40 and the OK state line. The animation over that spot is actually kind of amazing in its consistency.

The Radar network isn't great, but it appears that the storm South of I-40 Near Sayre has died.

Everything at the moment seems to be concentrated I-40 and north.

Darn. Not looking like much for the metro, at least not for a while. Kind of makes it crazy that places closed at 2pm.

Bureaucracy like closing a courthouse requires a lot of approvals. It's not like some random dude deciding to leave work early. A courthouse has people who commute an hour or more to get there on a regular basis.

You should be celebrating the fact that institutional employers care about their employees and actually listen to the scientists telling us this is a big deal. The alternative is unacceptable.

For the life of me I don't understand the bizarre nitpicking about nothing burgers like this on this board.

Full now-cast situation obviously - so tune into local TV mets. But the storm heading toward Fairview and another one heading toward Canton-Watonga area are big-time.

We should see these cells continue to head ENE, with eventual ESE jogs as they enter C OK. The timing will be pretty serious for all of I-35 as peak tornado conditions will exist as the cells cross the region.

And then the main show will be the cells that form once the LLJ kicks in and the outflow from these provide enough mixing to kick stuff off

When do we think storms would start entering/firing in the El Reno area and moving eastward?

When do we think storms would start entering/firing in the El Reno area and moving eastward?

Depends how quickly I get my onion burger.

Some impressive looking storms up to the northwest. Shocking that they’re struggling so much to drop a tornado.

LLJ is ramping up : https://twitter.com/StormHQwx/status/1787628464893300801

Okeene cell is on the ground

Lots of new cells firing in SW OK that could grow and impact the metro in an hour or two if they develop.

We're in the prime time.

Hopefully SE OKC can get some major rain out of this.

Question for Semi or Anon.

These discrete storms consistently seem to be moving NE to NNE, yet KWTV just put a track on them to reach OKC via a *ESE* motion vector. Are these things turning en masse?

Pretty wild footage of the inflow on channel 9.

Yeah that cigar cloud was insane.

….also I feel like news 9 has not utilized Jim Gardner much this year, and when they do use him, it seems awkward. The audio isn’t great either.

Yeah that cigar cloud was insane.

….also I feel like news 9 has not utilized Jim Gardner much this year, and when they do use him, it seems awkward. The audio isn’t great either.

I wonder if that is due to the FAA given the hail incident and it not being Jim's first uh oh in the helicopter.

Since I've had a kid, my weather anxiety has increased tenfold. I'm in Tulsa, but watching closely... hope OKC stays safe!

Since I've had a kid, my weather anxiety has increased tenfold. I'm in Tulsa, but watching closely... hope OKC stays safe!

You'll get more than we will, it appears.

I wonder if that is due to the FAA given the hail incident and it not being Jim's first uh oh in the helicopter.

Not sure how FAA would affect KWTV's use of him other than whether he can fly at all, eg some sort of puniitve action affecting his license, which doesn't seem to be the case at all or we'd certainly have heard about it. I just think sometimes it's hard to use him in certain circumstances.

I wonder if that is due to the FAA given the hail incident and it not being Jim's first uh oh in the helicopter.

What hail incident?

Storms are starting to take a concerning path toward okc. Pretty much what anon said they would do earlier.

What hail incident?

A year or two ago, he got caught between two storms and his helicopter got beat with hail badly. He was yelling at David live on their broadcast as he was trying not to crash. Think he had to set down in a field or something. I also think he had an issue during the May 3rd tornado where he ran out of fuel while tracking that tornado. Think he had to set down in a field for that one too. Of course, that was a long time ago and could have been a different pilot. Think it was him though.

Yeah that cigar cloud was insane.

….also I feel like news 9 has not utilized Jim Gardner much this year, and when they do use him, it seems awkward. The audio isn’t great either.

That old bigot is still employed?

Storms are starting to take a concerning path toward okc. Pretty much what anon said they would do earlier.

The radar motion I'm watching keeps these storms on an NE to ENE track. There are apparently some models out there suggesting a more easterly direction or redevelopment later in the central OK area. Anything to the SW of the current development would bear watching.

Not sure how FAA would affect KWTV's use of him other than whether he can fly at all, eg some sort of puniitve action affecting his license, which doesn't seem to be the case at all or we'd certainly have heard about it. I just think sometimes it's hard to use him in certain circumstances.

Come on now. We all know how important FAA approval is in OKC.

Yeah this line of storms are likely going NW of okc. Maybe grazes us. The models are hinting at a second line of storms that fires up further south. Those will hit us, but we’ll see if they can even get going.

Looking at the remaining visible satellite data we have with the sun setting, there is no significant CU field for storms building up to the SW of C OK; however, HRRR keeps showing development well after dark along I-44 from OKC down to Lawton.

If storms were to develop in SW and C OK, it would be approaching 10pm.

I do have concern for the development line to keep dragging W-E along I-40 and the result would be continued development of storms training over the same areas. Eventually this entire zone will shift SE, so there will be a period of time where we could see training of cells across C OK that will likely be rotating.

Not sure how FAA would affect KWTV's use of him other than whether he can fly at all, eg some sort of puniitve action affecting his license, which doesn't seem to be the case at all or we'd certainly have heard about it. I just think sometimes it's hard to use him in certain circumstances.Exactly. I work at an aviation training/certification/recertification facility. If the FAA had issues with him being an unsafe pilot they wouldn't restrict his flying. They'd revoke his license.

Is it just me, or do the TV mets want something to hit the metro? I understand anything is possible and something will develop, but it almost seems like they will be disappointed if the metro doesn't get hammered.

Looking at the remaining visible satellite data we have with the sun setting, there is no significant CU field for storms building up to the SW of C OK; however, HRRR keeps showing development well after dark along I-44 from OKC down to Lawton.

If storms were to develop in SW and C OK, it would be approaching 10pm.

I do have concern for the development line to keep dragging W-E along I-40 and the result would be continued development of storms training over the same areas. Eventually this entire zone will shift SE, so there will be a period of time where we could see training of cells across C OK that will likely be rotating.

Anon, doesn't it seem like the little storms in SW just start up then dissolve?

Anon, doesn't it seem like the little storms in SW just start up then dissolve?

Yes, the dryline in that area has hardly moved this evening, definitely the conditional scenario further down there. The dryline is still W of Mangum and Elk City.

Is it me or did the speed of these storms just die? Feel like they’re not progressing east very fast at all.

Line in N Central OK continues to track ENE, northern extreme moving into KS.

Yeah that cigar cloud was insane.

….also I feel like news 9 has not utilized Jim Gardner much this year, and when they do use him, it seems awkward. The audio isn’t great either.

I wouldn't be surprised if theirs is in the shop. N9TV is the Bell 407 they've previously used until the hail incident, and N2BQ is what they've been flying this year. N9TV's most recent filed flight was to Tri-Cities in Tennessee, and there is a Bell Service Center just down the road from there.

Dryline is visible on Frederick radar, moving east at a good clip now. Should encourage development down to the SW. Keep an eye around Altus - Hobart - Weatherford.,

Ok, like another person wrote, storm coverage over saturation is a thing for me in regards to these later events. I’m losing interest by the minute mainly because I’m tired but I’m also just kinda tired of listening to weather. That being said…

Feel like the models really struggled with pegging this system early. There was no early initiation away from the dry line like the HRRR suggested. Thats the second time in as many weeks where this happened. Also, we had yet another massive PDS tornado watch in which nothing happened at all (so far) in the majority of the area. There were a lot of business closures. The atmosphere was obviously primed, but we failed to really see everything come together in a massive tornado outbreak (please bear with me because I know the night is young. I’m just tired and about to call it a night.)

What really bothers me with this is the boy-who-cried-wolf scenario. It’s good businesses release early and cancel activities. Better safe than sorry. However, there will be a time where they stop taking this seriously. I’ve seen it happen with my company. They got burned too many times with stuff like this and just stopped releasing people. They put it on us and our pto reserves to leave if we feel the need. I’m glad nothing major has happened (yet) but I worry about a bigger issue down the road if people stop taking these types of days seriously.

Edit: I want to edit and say the models did do a good job predicting this system as it kinda got under way. Things have been moving along much like it was expected. Major supercells turning into a line of storms. Just didn’t see the large PDS tornadoes. Again, that is a good thing, but I worry for the day when PDS is called for and it does happen and people don’t take it seriously.

Watching that “tail end Charlie” closely as it moves along I-40. These types of storms can often be tornadic since they have more inflow

Yes, the dryline in that area has hardly moved this evening, definitely the conditional scenario further down there. The dryline is still W of Mangum and Elk City.

Anon, if that dryline does allow storms to form, are we looking at individual cells or a more linear organization? Is the long-track threat still as high?

Insane amounts of rain being dropped right now. Will be very helpful for that part of the state which usually misses out.

Anon, if that dryline does allow storms to form, are we looking at individual cells or a more linear organization? Is the long-track threat still as high?

Long-track threat is definitely waning. But anything even within lines will have rotation. As can be seen currently on the tail-end cell heading toward Okarche and N of Piedmont area.

Long-track threat is definitely waning. But anything even within lines will have rotation. As can be seen currently on the tail-end cell heading toward Okarche and N of Piedmont area.

Oh no question. Thanks.

Very heavy rain moving through Stillwater as of 9:10 pm. Fortunately, that's it.

Is development in SW OKC getting a *bit* more organized? Still see some popping and fizzing out.

Weatherford and Hobart are lighting up now, like I mentioned earlier - the dryline is quickly smashing through this area and will encourage the development zone to shift SW. This will likely drape a cluster of storms all the way across C OK over the next few hours. Flash flood threat will be real.

Potential EF3-EF4 Torando NE of Tulsa... heading right towards Bartlesville. Not good

Man the echo on the tornado near Barnsdall is ugly. That's a monster. If it holds together, Bartlesville could be at risk.

So OKC goes from closing the courthouse at 2pm, to not seeing storms until maybe 2am? The irony.

New storm near Mangum popping

Tornado Emergency in Bartlesville - this thing has been on the ground forever.

Looks like W Bartlesville took a direct hit. The line of storms and the tornado intersected directly on the town.

So OKC goes from closing the courthouse at 2pm, to not seeing storms until maybe 2am? The irony.

No irony at all. These events are hard to predict. The courthouse listened to the scientists and took steps to protect their employees and the public. Nothing ironic at all.

Tornado Emergency in Bartlesville - this thing has been on the ground forever.

That storm started developing just to the southeast of Stillwater well ahead of the line to the west. By the time, it got into Pawnee county and first became severe, David Payne said that storm was running for its life to avoid being absorbed by the line. It got absorbed.

I'm now monitoring coverage of it on KOTV-6 Tulsa with Travis Meyer as that storm now bearing a tornado is warned for Bartlesville with radar indicated winds up to 100 mph. Before that it hit Barnsdall with damage reported.

Heavy rains that had stopped in Stillwater now resuming and took the rain amount over 1 inch.

No irony at all. These events are hard to predict. The courthouse listened to the scientists and took steps to protect their employees and the public. Nothing ironic at all.

But I don't think anyone was saying OKC would be hit early on, and would be later in the afternoon or evening. I get keeping people safe, 100%. But sometimes, it gets a little overdone. People bash News channels for showing weather all night, then praise the courthouse for closing at 2pm. Just seems like a double-standard.

Some people - myself included - would rather their employees be home safe with their families than still on the road to wherever they live (which could be anywhere in a one-hour radius) when a dangerous storm hits. Some people have kids they must pick up or otherwise deal with after they leave work. Some folks serve other family members as caretakers. Some folks deal with anxiety. Some offices take hours to shut down once the decision is made.

I’d never be able to forgive myself if I stayed open just a bit longer to squeeze out a few more dollars and someone got hurt because of my decision. It’s one I am forced to make many times each year, and it costs me plenty to exercise care. But the potential cost for NOT doing it is much, much higher.

Sometimes people who have strong opinions about how other people choose to run their businesses should just…stay in their own lane.

Some people - myself included - would rather their employees be home safe with their families than still on the road to wherever they live (which could be anywhere in a one-hour radius) when a dangerous storm hits. Some people have kids they must pick up or otherwise deal with after they leave work. Some folks serve other family members as caretakers. Some folks deal with anxiety. Some offices take hours to shut down once the decision is made.

I’d never be able to forgive myself if I stayed open just a bit longer to squeeze out a few more dollars and someone got hurt because of my decision. It’s one I am forced to make many times each year, and it costs me plenty to exercise care, but the potential cost for NOT doing it is much, much higher.

Sometimes people who have strong opinions about how other people choose to run their businesses should just…stay in their own lane.

I get that, 100%. But courthouses serve a public purpose, that sometimes doesn't go on pause for a storm. But putting people first, sure. It is hard to bash. I am not bashing them, just saying it is ironic they closed at 2pm, and storms may not get anywhere near them til 2am. Not bashing, at all.

I will not comment on it any further.

Anon what's your assessment of that Gracemont storm thats heading to SW Metro?

Anon what's your assessment of that Gracemont storm thats heading to SW Metro?

That storm is starting to look pretty powerful. The cells splitting off of it, also bear watching to the N as it all comes into OKC.

That storm is starting to look pretty powerful. The cells splitting off of it, also bear watching to the N as it all comes into OKC.

Is that thing developing an inflow notch??

Storms coming into OKC right now are not very organized, a lot of cells going up around the area making it pretty murky. However, it is still technically SVR warned.

Ping pong ball sized hail reported with that Gracemont storm.