This is a great indication of the growth in this city and its economy. Everything appears to be rising: job opportunities, labor participation, wages, etc. Great publicity and a testament to where OKC is as a city now, a national player.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/utahs-tech-hub-powers-americas-hottest-job-market-wsj-ranking-finds-e67d0171

According to the article from MoneyGeek OKC is No. 1 for job seekers. Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
https://www.moneygeek.com/living/top-cities-job-seekers/

According to the article from MoneyGeek OKC is No. 1 for job seekers. Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
https://www.moneygeek.com/living/top-cities-job-seekers/

That's awesome. Nice find!

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/news/2024/06/03/stateline-study-oklahoma-job-market-sees-boost-reversal-brain-drain/73954962007/

Not bad. Hopefully this trend continues.

People have been saying we are becoming a Global economy for at least 20 years now, but with the rise of remote work people truly can choose where they live if they are a white collar worker. Really, the only thing that holds Oklahoma back is k-12 education system. Kind of hard to do that online, but even how we do that is going to change as time goes on.

People have been saying we are becoming a Global economy for at least 20 years now, but with the rise of remote work people truly can choose where they live if they are a white collar worker. Really, the only thing that holds Oklahoma back is k-12 education system. Kind of hard to do that online, but even how we do that is going to change as time goes on.

And I think that is a bit of a perception issue. Places like Edmond, Jenks, and some of the other suburbs stack up very well nationally.

And I think that is a bit of a perception issue. Places like Edmond, Jenks, and some of the other suburbs stack up very well nationally.

I'm not sure about that. AreaVibes scores Edmond 78 for livability. Jenks is 70. Yukon is only 65. Moore is 73. Strangely enough, Stillwater scores 82 for livability. But OU fans can rejoice and be relieved because Norman is rated as a better place to live by one point--83.

Wasn't PhiAlpha referring to the schools?

Wasn't PhiAlpha referring to the schools?

Yes.

Anecdotally, at least, I don't think this holds up unless the rest of the country is headed for a big economic downturn. I'm in close contact with a large staffing company here in OK and their placements are WAY down, and even where employers want to hire, they don't have the capital to do it with. Times are about to be bad I think.

I'm not sure about that. AreaVibes scores Edmond 78 for livability. Jenks is 70. Yukon is only 65. Moore is 73. Strangely enough, Stillwater scores 82 for livability. But OU fans can rejoice and be relieved because Norman is rated as a better place to live by one point--83.

That one point was a hanging chad and the intent of the voter was to give a point to Stillwater and not Norman. The new official score is Stillwater 83 and Norman 82.

Anecdotally, at least, I don't think this holds up unless the rest of the country is headed for a big economic downturn. I'm in close contact with a large staffing company here in OK and their placements are WAY down, and even where employers want to hire, they don't have the capital to do it with. Times are about to be bad I think.

The economy isn't nearly as strong as what the Fed would like us to believe and it wouldn't surprise me at all to have a nice little recession in the back half of the year now that nobody is really talking about it. That said I think we'll fair pretty well here in Oklahoma compared to what could happen a lot of other places. Economy here is much more diversified than it was in the past which should help. They appear poised to let things run their course at least through the election.

Recession that nobody is taking about? The recession has been coming for like 3 years now.

Recession that nobody is taking about? The recession has been coming for like 3 years now.

There's has been a lot less talk this year compared to the last couple as many believe the Fed has achieved the soft landing and appear to have everything right where they want it.

Personally think it's laughable and Fed/Fiscal Policy have very little credibility the last 4 years so I'm not sure why they'd be right this time. Good chance they'll leave rates restrictive until it's too late. We'll see though, so far it hasn't happened and it still might not. Massive government spending & federal job creation keeps kicking the can further down the road.

Recession that nobody is taking about? The recession has been coming for like 3 years now.

Economists have predicted 18 of the last 3 recessions

Economists have predicted 18 of the last 3 recessions

Truer words were never spoken, sir.

The economy isn't nearly as strong as what the Fed would like us to believe and it wouldn't surprise me at all to have a nice little recession in the back half of the year now that nobody is really talking about it. That said I think we'll fair pretty well here in Oklahoma compared to what could happen a lot of other places. Economy here is much more diversified than it was in the past which should help. They appear poised to let things run their course at least through the election.

It’s an interesting statement. I was looking at my w2!and I’m doing about 40% better than the 2010’s and I bout a house in 2017 for 120k in Coronado heights . well I sold it last year for $214 cash. So I’m like this is great. Then I used that to upgrade homes. So all that’s gone. That said the interest rate feels really high. And tends to increase/drop in 1/4’s percent. I’d like to know where this Jerome Powell guy came from or is so I could ring his neck
And soft landing sounds like an ongoing process that will never end. I think recessions are a “fact of life” in supply side economies.

There's has been a lot less talk this year compared to the last couple as many believe the Fed has achieved the soft landing and appear to have everything right where they want it.

Personally think it's laughable and Fed/Fiscal Policy have very little credibility the last 4 years so I'm not sure why they'd be right this time. Good chance they'll leave rates restrictive until it's too late. We'll see though, so far it hasn't happened and it still might not. Massive government spending & federal job creation keeps kicking the can further down the road.

Facts be damned, it's feelings.

That said the interest rate feels really high.
And tends to increase/drop in 1/4’s percent. I’d like to know where this Jerome Powell guy came from or is so I could ring his neck
And soft landing sounds like an ongoing process that will never end. I think recessions are a “fact of life” in supply side economies.

Interest rates are at approximately the average of the last 200 years of US Economy. Comparing current rates to historic low rates induced by the second worst depression/recession in US history isn't a fair target.

Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. Powell was made Fed Chair by Trump.

What we have now is a bastardization of economic philosophies, trying to take selected populist views of both supply side economic policies and demand side. We have very few in congress who even understand basics of economic theory but take simplistic views they think makes them popular with their voting base and helps them get elected. They would falil most Econ 101 tests. They grossly ignore the mitigating factors and focus on ones that are good political fodder.

We should be lucky that rates are as low as they are with the size of our debt load. Besides curbing inflation, having the ability to lower the fed funds rate makes the Federal Reserve appear useful the next time a recession hits.

I guess the question is what is the technical limit we can keep taking on debt before we have to do full blow monetization?

We should be lucky that rates are as low as they are with the size of our debt load. Besides curbing inflation, having the ability to lower the fed funds rate makes the Federal Reserve appear useful the next time a recession hits.

I guess the question is what is the technical limit we can keep taking on debt before we have to do full blow monetization?

The Japanese are a few decades ahead of us in figuring that limit out.

We should be lucky that rates are as low as they are with the size of our debt load. Besides curbing inflation, having the ability to lower the fed funds rate makes the Federal Reserve appear useful the next time a recession hits.

I guess the question is what is the technical limit we can keep taking on debt before we have to do full blow monetization?

Depends on growth of efficiency and total growth of the economy. Think about taking on a debt at 5% that will grow your income by 10%. You would do that all day long. However, if interest is at 10% and you can't earn but 5%, your debt is too high, no matter the level. If the debt load is growing faster than gains in efficiency and output we have a problem. If you have no debt and have no growth, you are dead in the water. Debt, efficiency and output are intertwined and are contextual with each other.

We should be lucky that rates are as low as they are with the size of our debt load. Besides curbing inflation, having the ability to lower the fed funds rate makes the Federal Reserve appear useful the next time a recession hits.

I guess the question is what is the technical limit we can keep taking on debt before we have to do full blow monetization?

The way I see it the real risk is that we eventually default on our debt due to political instability which will have massive fallout. As government debt continues to deteriorate in terms of credit rating & higher for longer rates while the rest of the world is diverging more cash will flow here while investors demand a higher interest rate of return to assume the risk. Long term post debt default we may not be the reserve currency in the world any longer. If you think inflation is bad now we could see hyper inflation should that occur and assets would be pennies on the dollar.

Hopefully none of this ever occurs but we have a couple of major problems as I see it. One is the government & the other is the Fed itself with the extreme polarization of monetary policy since 08 creating everything asset bubbles. We might kick the can down the road several more years but if we don't get the debt & rates under control who knows. If and when we hit the next rough patch it might be worse than what people think. The government is not in a position for massive bailouts this go around and we found out during Covid most people would be in a bad spot.

The Japanese are a few decades ahead of us in figuring that limit out.

Japan also have a huge home savings rate. A different 'problem' for their central bank. They have had a stagnant economy because their population is fixated on the future and saving money while the US population has no problem spending money, but is know realizing that a bunch of people are about to retire and didn't save anything.

Japan also have a huge home savings rate. A different 'problem' for their central bank. They have had a stagnant economy because their population is fixated on the future and saving money while the US population has no problem spending money, but is know realizing that a bunch of people are about to retire and didn't save anything.

Japan has a stagnant and aging population which is much of why their economy is stagnant.

Japan has a stagnant and aging population which is much of why their economy is stagnant.
People focus on one or two things and blame the problems on that rather than fully understanding how all the factors influence each other. Mal-informed and uneducated (on economics) politicians tend to do the same. Aging populations, birth rates, immigration policies, money supply, savings rates, gdp growth, efficiency, r&d investment, tax policies, etc, etc, etc all are significant factors. It is fruitless to blame one without acknowledging the full effect of the other factors and their interdependencies. It is a complex issue that many skew to try to prove out their pet peeve or political bias.

We might kick the can down the road several more years
How much further can we kick the can? It feels like we're running out of road.

How much further can we kick the can? It feels like we're running out of road.

This is not a snarky reply...I think I first heard "How much further can we kick the can down the road" in regards to the economy, debt and tax structure in the early 1990s. Might have been after the Reagan tax cuts in the mid-1980s.

I'm guessing a looooooong time.

This is not a snarky reply...I think I first heard "How much further can we kick the can down the road" in regards to the economy, debt and tax structure in the early 1990s. Might have been after the Reagan tax cuts in the mid-1980s.

I'm guessing a looooooong time.

Yes, it's a phrase that shows there is no one that can tell you how much of a problem it really is. Theoretically, you can kick a can down the road forever. It will never be fully resolved.

How much further can we kick the can? It feels like we're running out of road.

No idea but I would guess it's a major issue in 5-10 years. Yellen said last week the debt load is '"manageable" lol.

More than likely this is our economic reality the next 4 years (I'm presuming Dems win & stay in power) but even if they don't I'm not sure anything changes. I think it could be a major issue the next election cycle as we'll be starting down closer to a $50 trillion deficit by then.

No idea but I would guess it's a major issue in 5-10 years. Yellen said last week the debt load is '"manageable" lol.

More than likely this is our economic reality the next 4 years (I'm presuming Dems win & stay in power) but even if they don't I'm not sure anything changes. I think it could be a major issue the next election cycle as we'll be starting down closer to a $50 trillion deficit by then.
You might be surprised to know the best balances has been under democrat presidents. Heck, Clinton actually had surplus. Biggest deficits of the past few decades have been in Republican administrations. We have run deficits for almost all of the last 60 years with the biggest deficits under Bush, Obama and Trump. Every time we get lower deficits the Republicans want to cut corporate and high wealth individual tax rates, exacerbating the deficits.

You might be surprised to know the best balances has been under democrat presidents. Heck, Clinton actually had surplus. Biggest deficits of the past few decades have been in Republican administrations. We have run deficits for almost all of the last 60 years with the biggest deficits under Bush, Obama and Trump. Every time we get lower deficits the Republicans want to cut corporate and high wealth individual tax rates, exacerbating the deficits.

When did political comments become allowable again?

When did political comments become allowable again?
Just responding to previous post.

Just responding to previous post.

...with an accurate economic policy summary that is certainly applicable to the topic at hand.

You might be surprised to know the best balances has been under democrat presidents. Heck, Clinton actually had surplus. Biggest deficits of the past few decades have been in Republican administrations. We have run deficits for almost all of the last 60 years with the biggest deficits under Bush, Obama and Trump. Every time we get lower deficits the Republicans want to cut corporate and high wealth individual tax rates, exacerbating the deficits.

You seem to conveniently omit the most important part of the equation for the cause of rapidly growing debt, which is spending. The interest payment on current debt for this year is about $1 trillion. That yearly interest payment will grow exponentially as old notes are paid off at low interest rates, then reissued at a higher rate. Collecting a few 100 billion more from corporations and wealthy people is a drop in the bucket without seriously cutting spending.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/06/27/us-budget-deficit-cuts-incomes/74211526007/

The CBO last week just raised its estimate for the government deficit this year by an astounding 27% - 408 billion higher just over the February forecast for a 1.9 trillion deficit this year. At a time when we can least afford the government is lighting money on fire keeping inflation burning hot and raising the real rates for us all for years to come with apparently zero regard.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/06/27/us-budget-deficit-cuts-incomes/74211526007/

The CBO last week just raised its estimate for the government deficit this year by an astounding 27% - 408 billion higher just over the February forecast for a 1.9 trillion deficit this year. At a time when we can least afford the government is lighting money on fire keeping inflation burning hot and raising the real rates for us all for years to come with apparently zero regard.

Inflation's down from a year ago, very much:

"Inflation and the economy are still the biggest issues on many voters’ minds heading into the 2024 election, even though inflation has come down from its dizzying height in June 2022, when prices were climbing at almost 9 percent. Last month, it was a much more manageable 3.3 percent. "

https://www.vox.com/unexplainable/356769/inflation-pandemic-economy-federal-reserve-interest-rates

Inflation's down from a year ago, very much:

"Inflation and the economy are still the biggest issues on many voters’ minds heading into the 2024 election, even though inflation has come down from its dizzying height in June 2022, when prices were climbing at almost 9 percent. Last month, it was a much more manageable 3.3 percent. "

https://www.vox.com/unexplainable/356769/inflation-pandemic-economy-federal-reserve-interest-rates

Real inflation is probably actually higher than it was a year ago when home prices & borrowing costs are taken into account. Neither are factored into CPI data but have a huge effect on real inflation.

Just wait til 2025, when a lot of people who bought home in 2020 on ARMs have them automatically re-priced. We are talking 4% or 5% increases in rates (from sub 3% to almost 7% or 8%).

Just wait til 2025, when a lot of people who bought home in 2020 on ARMs have them automatically re-priced. We are talking 4% or 5% increases in rates (from sub 3% to almost 7% or 8%).

if you bought a house with a ARM during the lowest fixed rates of all time (to save pennies on the dollar) you deserve what you get ..

Yea I don't think there were many ARM's during the pandemic other than commercial which is about to go bust. They make more sense now but even still the % is very low.

Commerical really not even an ARM but a balloon note essentially same effect.

Just wait til 2025, when a lot of people who bought home in 2020 on ARMs have them automatically re-priced. We are talking 4% or 5% increases in rates (from sub 3% to almost 7% or 8%).

I doubt very many took ARMs when a historically low rate was available. So tell us what % of people actually did this. This isn’t going to be any problem.

I doubt very many took ARMs when a historically low rate was available. So tell us what % of people actually did this. This isn’t going to be any problem.

Not sure why you take everything so personally. I know of quite a few. They were thinking rates would increase gradually, and would be able to budget their savings early on to cover later interest increases. They thought 1.5% to 2.5% increases. Not 5% to 6% increases.

Many regional banks in OKC I audit are having to work with borrowers on mitigation plans to help smooth out the increases, but they are increasing their CECL loss rates because of it. 2025 will see quite a few foreclosures.

Not sure why you take everything so personally. I know of quite a few. They were thinking rates would increase gradually, and would be able to budget their savings early on to cover later interest increases. They thought 1.5% to 2.5% increases. Not 5% to 6% increases.

Many regional banks in OKC I audit are having to work with borrowers on mitigation plans to help smooth out the increases, but they are increasing their CECL loss rates because of it. 2025 will see quite a few foreclosures.

Just trying to understand what percentage of borrowers would be dumb enough to NOT lock in historically low rates for a long term loan. ARMs are to hedge down, not up. Did the banks make them take ARMs as a condition for loan approval? What exactly was the incentive to float UP? Why?

Just trying to understand what percentage of borrowers would be dumb enough to NOT lock in historically low rates for a long term loan. ARMs are to hedge down, not up. Did the banks make them take ARMs as a condition for loan approval? What exactly was the incentive to float UP? Why?

exactly this ...

the the bottom when fixed were below 3 ... ARM was what 2.5 on a 500k house they were saving what under a 100 bucks a month ... ...lol yeah they deserve what they get ..