April coming in with OKC just on the edge of a severe weather day. If you're east of I-35, pay attention to your trusted weather sources...

I don’t normally start these thread so sorry for stepping on toes.

Been looking at the high res models for tomorrow, and it’s looking like they’re hinting at some pretty nice instability. Cape, lift, and shear all look promising for storm development just west of okc or right on top of us. Storm development looks to line out, but given the instability, large hail and tornadoes are in play…at least from what I’ve seen this morning. Definitely worth watching closely as we get closer to tomorrow afternoon.

Weather Twitter or Weather X what ever you want to call it just going mad tonight. On camp. Big Storms Tornadoes very possible. The other camp. Not enough low level shear no Tonadoes SMH Both side agree though this should be a big Hail event and there might be several storms dumping big hail not just one or two.

The NAM is absolutely blowing up some big storms southwest of us and are bringing them across. Skew-t’s range from weak to strong tornado. The HRRR is not showing the same trends. More southerly and easterly. Will need to watch closely.

Weather Twitter or Weather X what ever you want to call it just going mad tonight. On camp. Big Storms Tornadoes very possible. The other camp. Not enough low level shear no Tonadoes SMH Both side agree though this should be a big Hail event and there might be several storms dumping big hail not just one or two.

Yeah either way I would not want to be out on the roads after 4pm or so tomorrow. Even if we don't get the tornadoes, significant hail seems likely.

Runs from the models coming in Sunday night. They either have storms blowing up right over OKC or just east of OKC. Check in the morning.

So what this boils down to is that two models are forecasting two different setups.

The HRRR model shows a line of storms forming just south of the Metro and extending to the Red River, moving rapidly NE. The NAM shows a slightly smaller cluster somewhat SSW of OKC, also moving rapidly NE, but seemingly skirting *just southeast* of OKC.

So at this point it's a close shave. There comes a point where you can't get *that* precise with any of these models. Bottom line, stormy setup is there, it's April in Oklahoma, so be aware and plan accordingly.

Mesoscale analysis will be important today, could be a couple of subtle features that lead to early convective initiation. Certainly the trend over the past 12 hours seems to be that the Metro is more likely to get in on the action. Rush hour timing of 4-7 p.m. seems correct, so definitely worth keeping a close eye on. Still looks like the highest tornado threat will be to the east of the Metro as the storms should mostly be done here by the time the low level jet starts to intensify around sunset. But the hail threat may well be maximized over the Metro as shear profiles are very favorable and the storms will likely impact us before any upscale growth into a QLCS occurs.

Both HRRR and NAM are pushing storm initiation further west from when I checked it yesterday. The HRRR is trying to initiate a few storms around Chickasha

Well, Mike Morgan posted this on his facebook feed at about 9:30..."Folks, Today, April 1, 2024, many areas of our state, including OKC metro, have the highest threat of damaging tornados since May 2013. I do not post this lightly. Pay Attention Know your plan."

Well, Mike Morgan posted this on his facebook feed at about 9:30..."Folks, Today, April 1, 2024, many areas of our state, including OKC metro, have the highest threat of damaging tornados since May 2013. I do not post this lightly. Pay Attention Know your plan."

He really shouldn't post this inflammatory stuff when its still 6-8 hours from "maybe' .

Agreed completely. I was just stunned he would make that sort of claim. Highest threat since May 2013? Please. thankfully, a lot of comments on his post were dissing him for saying that.

Yeah the instability is quite high today. Anybody know if Norman is going to release a sounding a noon?

Hi everyone! SPC outline is sig notation for hail for basically all of the Enhanced risk area. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade to Moderate for Tulsa-Springfield-STL region for tornado parameters. Current rain and cloud coverage is hindering ground air temperatures across the entire risk bubble today, but per recent visible satellite, there is some clearing taking place behind the convection up there around Joplin-Springfield.

As for OKC, storm chances will be for cells firing off the dryline around Lawton. I think the better chance for classic supercells will be S of the metro heading down toward the Red River.

Probably going to see several special balloon launches today, so we can get read on wind profiles - but prepare for large hail with any isolated cell.

Yeah the instability is quite high today. Anybody know if Norman is going to release a sounding a noon?

2 p.m. special sounding from Norman, I believe.

Well, Mike Morgan posted this on his facebook feed at about 9:30..."Folks, Today, April 1, 2024, many areas of our state, including OKC metro, have the highest threat of damaging tornados since May 2013. I do not post this lightly. Pay Attention Know your plan."

Mike Morgan is an absolute menace.

He really shouldn't post this inflammatory stuff when its still 6-8 hours from "maybe' .

He is an atrocious hype-and-fear monger. I cannot stand him.

Risk area updated to a moderate from Wichita Falls to OKC to Tulsa down to McAlester. Tornado threat shifting slightly west with a 10% target on the metro with an enhanced chance of significant tornadoes on the east side of the metro up through Tulsa to Columbia, Mo and points east. Biggest threat seems to be large hail. Hodographs seem to be favorable for multiple supercells, but the low level jet should drive up the tornado risk.

BIG HAIL TODAY. If you hear Thunder take action

SPC just upgraded all of C and NE OK to Moderate for increased confidence in large hail threat. In addition to increase in hail note, there is an extension on the sig outline for tornados. It now comes down to the SW, just E of OKC.

Another change for the MO area, is damaging wind threat has sig notation for likelihood of MCS with straight-line-winds and small tornado spinups along the line.

EDIT: saw others just posted this same info. Thanks for all who are contributing!

I'm relieved it's going to be a cloudy stay without temps getting into the 80s. The experts insist it will be a rough day, but without the heat, I'm skeptical about the storms being very strong. Anyway, we shall see.

Mike Morgan is an absolute menace.

So, after Morgan’s Facebook post this morning, should we all drive south? There’s a better time for that discussion rather than today with storms hours away, but wow, that alarmist post today sure brings May 2013 back to me.

I'm relieved it's going to be a cloudy stay without temps getting into the 80s. The experts insist it will be a rough day, but without the heat, I'm skeptical about the storms being very strong. Anyway, we shall see.

Yeah where I am here in OKC the lower cloud deck is *trying* to break up but the clouds keep "winning." When I step outside for a moment and just use my old "brain assessment" the air doesn't have that "heaviness" I normally associate with a big storm day. Not saying we can't get them at all given temps in the high 70s/low 80s and 70%+ humidity, but I can sure appreciate how more clearing and heating to the northeast toward Tulsa would enhance the instability as the afternoon progresses. Sure looks like the $64,000 question will be just how close to C. OK these storms actually start forming. Sure looks like once they form, they'll be booking it NE like a racehorse

I know it's OKCtalk, but what about for Muskogee tonight? I'm traveling that way for work today and staying overnight.

^ I’m convinced you can “feel” when it’s going to be a big severe weather day and today doesn’t have that feel

I was out in Calumet and El Reno today and while it was definitely colder than I'd associate, the air felt heavier out there....maybe it's just cause I'm a city boy.

Anyway, I hope it's not too bad.

I know it's OKCtalk, but what about for Muskogee tonight? I'm traveling that way for work today and staying overnight.

That area has better chances of rotating supercells, so increased tornado threat. And the same hail threat in OKC applies to there (and basically anywhere where storms develop).

Towers are going up now from near Watonga and S of Weatherford. NWS may try to place a SVR Watch for these earlier cells from about I-35 and points N. Then come in with a TOR for the southern area later this afternoon. Also wouldn't be surprised to just see only tornado watches from here on out.

Is there a predicted ETA for the metro area?

It certainly feels muggy enough for a good severe weather threat to me. We see it time and again as we start to approach peak severe weather season here, surface heating is not the be-all and end-all when we have strong southerly winds transporting in rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Could it be a limiting factor in the tornado threat, sure, but I don’t think anyone is calling for a major tornado threat for the OKC Metro other than a certain TV meteorologist who is notorious for overhyping severe weather events. And somewhat counterintuitively, the lack of surface heating and correspondingly narrow T/TD spreads will lead to lower cloud bases which could actually make it easier for tornadoes to form. Anyways, regardless of how the tornado threat pans out, a significant hail threat for the Metro seems fairly probable at this point in time given the outcomes that the high-resolution models are depicting.

Is there a predicted ETA for the metro area?

Thinking 5-7 p.m. as of right now. Storms should be screaming to the NE at 50-60 mph so there may not be a ton of advance warning. But for the same reason, not expecting a long-duration threat to the Metro. (We will possibly have some wraparound showers/storms overnight as the cold front pushes through, but certainly not expecting any severe weather with that round.)

Looks like dewpoints at or near the Red River are around 68 while greater central OK is closer to 65 or so. Not a huge difference but in this environment might be just enough for a threshold for the difference in where things form and/or get stronger.

If I'm reading it correctly, the HRRR is showing a well organized line of activity in central OK around 6-7 PM. I'd think the strength of the individual storms might be *somewhat* mitigated if they converge into a squall line (QLCS) rather than stay isolated, which I think is often where the big hail originates.

Tornado Watch is coming shortly for the entire Metro.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0322.html

Watch has officially been issued. Robust large hail probabilities.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0065.html

30% probability of at least 1 EF2+ tornado.
90% probability of 10 events of hail greater than 2".

30% probability of at least 1 EF2+ tornado.
90% probability of 10 events of hail greater than 2".

Ugh

^ I’m convinced you can “feel” when it’s going to be a big severe weather day and today doesn’t have that feel

Same. The heat, humidity and general feel just aren't there. Of course not that I've said it...I'm sure I'll be wrong lol.

Strange that we’re not seeing anything firing up right now. I noticed the air feels cooler. Wonder if the outflow boundaries from that cluster of storms to the north wiped out any potential for us?

KFOR future radar shows the metro getting next to nothing. Everything will fire up just south of Norman before moving NE.

Same. The heat, humidity and general feel just aren't there. Of course not that I've said it...I'm sure I'll be wrong lol.

Well, for reference, we hit 85 on May 20, 2013 and we're at 79 today, so it's not that far off... (NOT SAYING THIS IS THE SAME TYPE OF DAY)

KFOR future radar shows the metro getting next to nothing. Everything will fire up just south of Norman before moving NE.

Now now...Mike Morgan said this was the worst threat since May of 2013.

Well, for reference, we hit 85 on May 20, 2013 and we're at 79 today, so it's not that far off... (NOT SAYING THIS IS THE SAME TYPE OF DAY)

Channel 9 is showing 75 currently. I went for a walk in my neighborhood after getting home today and noticed the skies were clearing a bit and things started to feel more like a severe weather day than earlier with the clouds. And by that i mean i was sweating a lot during my walk. For the record i dont think this is a big event type of day for OKC and i hope that i am correct.

Initiation is happening very gradually at the moment, but I would expect that the showers currently along US-183 from Cordell to Snyder will eventually be what targets the Metro.

^ Yep some towers are breaking through now. It is difficult to see everything with the low cloud deck and haze in the lower atmosphere, but it looks like storms will be developing all across SW into C OK during the next hour.

The Vernon storm looks like it will eventually make its way to the metro area.

Edit: I say that, but then a new scan shows new storms ahead of that one building.

Lightly raining here. Kinda cool air. I don’t feel like this is happening. There’s no initiation down here. Think the outflows from the earlier storms wiped it out.

The Vernon storm looks like it will eventually make its way to the metro area.

Edit: I say that, but then a new scan shows new storms ahead of that one building.

The storm mode is looking to be very messy, but you can see that the entire area of convection continues to slowly intensify. Several areas of lightning are starting to be picked up as well.

Looks like a marginally better organized but also more linear band of storms building up from just NW of Lawton to possibly just SW of the Mustang/Yukon area. I'd have to infer a more linear setup tends to mitigate the risk for the bigger hail, but I guess we will just watch how it develops. Moving rapidly NE.

Everything appears to be splitting OKC proper at the moment. Will have to see if anything develops in the gap to the SE of the current convection. Also possible that a storm could become dominant and take a right turn towards OKC, but there doesn't appear to be a strong candidate for that at this time.

Lol, I leave OKC, and they may end up with nothing, only to head to Muskogee, where they will likely get hammered.

The line of storms in SW OK just doesn't seem to be getting organized. I have to wonder at this point if the LLJ will kick any of these up later this evening, otherwise it would seem the window for the bigger hailers is starting to close just a bit.

It would take a change in the current storm evolution for OKC proper to get anything, IMO. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but certainly think the severe weather threat in OKC proper has decreased relative to an hour ago.

Tornado sirens sounded in Stillwater, apparently for the tornado warning northwest of there.

Seeing lots of stormchasers and others claim this is a bust, which as a homeowner in the area I'm not gonna complain about. Good rains, no monster hail, no major tornado threat...good outcome

Seeing lots of stormchasers and others claim this is a bust, which as a homeowner in the area I'm not gonna complain about. Good rains, no monster hail, no major tornado threat...good outcome

Except for when OKC gets no rain.

HRRR suggesting one last firing of some cells to the SW. The atmosphere is really cluttered across C OK right now and the pockets of rain cooled air are hanging around.

Any new cells will likely be associated to the cold front blasting in, so more elevated type of cells.

Seeing lots of stormchasers and others claim this is a bust, which as a homeowner in the area I'm not gonna complain about. Good rains, no monster hail, no major tornado threat...good outcome

Agreed, happy if it turns out to be a bust. Hopefully the people in Ohio get a bust tomorrow as well.

Getting some pretty good rain in central OKC.

Too soon to hype Saturday April 6? It's already started by the way. JS