I know Payne takes some criticism, but I think today he has been really balanced. I think he's done a worthy job of tempering the urge to go extreme and still relaying storms with a legit threat. Definitely not hysterical today so far.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMMYNmsaAAA6tDH?format=jpg&name=small

Uhh 80% Black Spot in OKC

Is Nadocast a legitimate source? I'm asking because I'm seeing their graphics explode over social media today but I don't recall ever hearing about them before.

Is Nadocast a legitimate source? I'm asking because I'm seeing their graphics explode over social media today but I don't recall ever hearing about them before.

A lot of storm chasers and forecasters utilize his stuff. He nailed the storms yesterday in NE and IA.

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2024042712_009_35.4--97.67.png
Another Sounding for 21Z (4PM)

Around SE Moore at 6PM HRRR
https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2024042712_011_35.32--97.47.png

Can someone explain the most recent sounding like I’m 5?

Just want to say how much I appreciate all the analysis and info you guys post here during these events, and I know I’m not alone.

When is round 2? I hope it is just rain.

When is round 2? I hope it is just rain.

The lack of action right now isn't great as it means the atmosphere is able to recharge. Probably between 3-8pm, which should be the main round

Storm from OKC moving through Stillwater as of 3:10 pm. Thankfully, it looks like the worst part of it, the hail core, won't include the east side of Stillwater where rain isn't very heavy. No hail, here so far. OSU might be spared, from the hail, too.

Dewpoints are completely unfazed by the previous round of storms.

Dewpoints are completely unfazed by the previous round of storms.

im guessing that plus the sun looking to be coming out in central OK is not a good thing?

Ha, someone was wrong enough to turn on the tornado sirens in Stillwater for the storm that just passed all of Stillwater. Crying wolf with the sirens needs to stop! The actual tornado warning is only for northern Payne County and Eastern Noble County.

Can someone explain the most recent sounding like I’m 5?

Just want to say how much I appreciate all the analysis and info you guys post here during these events, and I know I’m not alone.
It means we are far from out of the woods storm/tornado wise. Atmosphere still very favorable. Lots of instability and favorable upper wind profiles.

Where is the dry line right now? It looks like it is still in the TX panhandle but I wanted to confirm

This Hinton/Lookeba storm could pose some trouble for folks in the NW metro

https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1784324585237991792

Near Draper has missed basically all of the action by 5 miles.

This Hinton/Lookeba storm could pose some trouble for folks in the NW metro

https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1784324585237991792

It's west of me (NW OKC) and headed NW.. This one may bother Okarche/Piedmont...

The chaser traffic jam is ridiculous.

It's west of me (NW OKC) and headed NW.. This one may bother Okarche/Piedmont...

When these storms plant a tornado though they can tend to move more due east, which would be trouble

This map gives you a good idea of where the dry line is.

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png

When these storms plant a tornado though they can tend to move more due east, which would be trouble

The storms are moving NE, not NW, but even so, a strong right turn would be a problem. Haven't seen that in these storms much today, so far.

Some chatter that there is something missing today with the atmosphere, which is why the storms while potent, haven’t matched what the models were showing.

(I understand that we have another wave to go through that hasn’t even formed yet).

But, something to consider.

Some chatter that there is something missing today with the atmosphere, which is why the storms while potent, haven’t matched what the models were showing.

(I understand that we have another wave to go through that hasn’t even formed yet).

But, something to consider.

I definitely think that's becoming some conventional wisdom. I heard some storms out of Colorado that were kinda forcing some aspects of this event faded unexpectedly overnight and that may be one component in the equation. But still an evening to get through and who knows what still might develop. Soundings and hodographs still show prime environment

Feel like this simply comes down to the fact that the dry line is still so far out west. Never really got any forcing to get the storms going. It’s been overcast all day too which didn’t help things. Obviously, things can ramp up later in the 2nd round but we’ll just have to see.

Something has been off though so far this year. The models have done a pretty poor job of predicting these systems so far. Then again, I bet things really ramp up here in May.

April is becoming fairly notorious for synoptically obvious events that nonetheless manage to bust due to subtle issues (I agree with C_M_25 that lack of forcing is likely the main issue today). Not that today can’t still be significant as the evening progresses, but it has definitely underperformed relative to my expectations thus far.

April is becoming fairly notorious for synoptically obvious events that nonetheless manage to bust due to subtle issues (I agree with C_M_25 that lack of forcing is likely the main issue today). Not that today can’t still be significant as the evening progresses, but it has definitely underperformed relative to my expectations thus far.

Hope the lack of performance continues and morphs into a heavy rain event.

It’s just really strange how that cell that moved up from Lawton recently just died. For all intents and purposes, it should have blown up into something big yet it is currently dying. Something must be missing in the atmosphere. I really think it’s probably related to the outflow boundaries from the storms in NW Oklahoma.

The problem is, this is where oklahoma gets most of its rain. Not normal rain storms, but these torrential thunderstorms. If not, we are usually bone dry, at least in central oklahoma.

Holy bust.

Yeah okc bout to get absolutely screwed by that line of storms to the south. They’ll bypass okc to the south and east by a decent margin.

I fully realize all of this prognosticating is incredibly complex, but it seems as we have less and less severe weather (which appears to be a strong trend over the last several years) we become more focused on any single possibility, which in turn tends to over-hype the few storms we do get.

I just looked and tornadoes in the state have decreased nearly 50% in the last four years compared to the previous four; part of the broader trend of Tornado Alley shifting east.

Until recently, the expectation was that any spring would bring more than our share of wild stuff and I'm not sure people have adjusted to the new reality.

I fully realize all of this prognosticating is incredibly complex, but it seems as we have less and less severe weather (which appears to be a strong trend over the last several years) we become more focused on any single possibility, which in turn tends to over-hype the few storms we do get.

I just looked and tornadoes in the state have decreased nearly 50% in the last four years compared to the previous four; part of the broader trend of Tornado Alley shifting east.

Until recently, the expectation was that any spring would bring more than our share of wild stuff and I'm not sure people have adjusted to the new reality.

Have NWS criteria for issuing these long range alerts changed? Lowered to make the *warnings* more likely, perhaps? That is, would today's alerts have gone out under identical conditions say, five years ago? Or ten? Very curious.

^

I'm not saying NWS should adjust their criteria and I'm sure they haven't, it's just the media and the general public are more focused on any single weather event simply because they are far less common than in the past.

I know from growing up here there was always the overriding thought that every spring would be eventful. Now, when something doesn't materialize it seems like a bigger deal simply because very little is proceeding or following.

It seems we've been going through this build-up and let-down repeatedly over the last several years.

^

I'm not saying NWS should adjust their criteria and I'm sure they haven't, it's just the media and the general public are more focused on any single weather event simply because they are far less common than in the past.

I know from growing up here there was always the overriding thought that every spring would be eventful. Now, when something doesn't materialize it seems like a bigger deal simply because very little is proceeding or following.

It seems we've been going through this build-up and let-down repeatedly over the last several years.

Actually fine with that.

Appreciate the input of everyone here because it has been quite helpful. Still have Crazy Payne on TV since about noon - even though we have been out on the patio for a while now. But checking in here and TV is very helpful. Still hoping for some meaningful rain minus the rowdy stuff.

Flipped between KOCO and KFOR today....

For those that watched KFOR, it seemed Emily Sutton was carrying the coverage more than Mike Morgan? But, it may just be simply the times I flipped over to their coverage?

Either way, both stations did a great job with wall to wall coverage, and it seems as of this hour, there will be another round late tonight.

For those saying "bust", I don't think so. There were tornados, large hail, and damaging winds in the moderate risk forecasted area. Just because it did not happen in your city, doesn't mean they were wrong.

Flipped between KOCO and KFOR today....

For those that watched KFOR, it seemed Emily Sutton was carrying the coverage more than Mike Morgan? But, it may just be simply the times I flipped over to their coverage?

Either way, both stations did a great job with wall to wall coverage, and it seems as of this hour, there will be another round late tonight.

For those saying "bust", I don't think so. There were tornados, large hail, and damaging winds in the moderate risk forecasted area. Just because it did not happen in your city, doesn't mean they were wrong.

That’s not why people are calling this a bust. They’re calling it a bust because the models wiffed on the main event pretty badly today. Even the SPC called for a pds tornado watch. What happened in that watch area? We got one or two supercells that struggled mightily to put down a tornado. We also saw supercells move into the state and completely die in the heart of that PDS watch at a time of day when things should have been really ramping up. We also saw poor initialization of storms throughout the majority of the areas highlighted as being at a higher risk for severe weather. We don’t know what round 2 is going to look like, but I’m in the bust territory on this one. You cannot drop a PDS watch for 1/3 of the state and not see storms even really kick off. It’s a bad look.

Severe weather is a big part of our identity and culture. We have the NWS and the best school of meteorology. Two Twister movies have been filmed and set here. When I lived in California there were two things people knew about Oklahoma: OU football and tornadoes.

Then you have the business model of all the local news stations almost completely driven by weather coverage (they will all freely admit that).

We just have so many resources devoted to severe weather, and that apparatus is increasingly looking for things to do. At least from the TV perspective, that's a formula for disproportionate hype.

Latest models really hinting that the west and north west sides of okc could miss out on the rain again tonight.

Latest models really hinting that the west and north west sides of okc could miss out on the rain again tonight.

Good thing they shut down the entire Arts Festival at 2 PM today, effectively killing the busiest day of what is now only a 4-day event.

Boy who cried wolf.

Good thing they shut down the entire Arts Festival at 2 PM today, effectively killing the busiest day of what is now only a 4-day event.

Saw that all Edmond High School's cancelled Prom too, that has to have a large impact on local restaurants, and parents and kids who invested in dresses, tux rentals, and limo/party busses for the evening.

There were many other things postponed or cancelled due to the weather.

From my perspective, ever since the Moore 2013 tornado, on days like this, where the forecast calls for a higher risk of severe weather, it seems communities and businesses would rather err on the side of caution, than risk any sort of situation that puts people in harms way.

In the last ten years since the Moore tornado, my employer essentially has a "no questions" asked if you are wanting to leave early on days where afternoons "could" be active to get home and get safe.

Saw that all Edmond High School's cancelled Prom too

Yukon as well.

Holy cow. That big line is storms coming in from the south may just barely clip the far southeastern sides of the city. Unless we see storms fire west of us, we may be hosed here for any appreciable rain. What a bummer.

Holy cow. That big line is storms coming in from the south may just barely clip the far southeastern sides of the city. Unless we see storms fire west of us, we may be hosed here for any appreciable rain. What a bummer.

I'm west OKC and have had a pretty decent light rain for about an hour now.

Seems to be more storms now than entire day.

Severe weather is a big part of our identity and culture. We have the NWS and the best school of meteorology. Two Twister movies have been filmed and set here. When I lived in California there were two things people knew about Oklahoma: OU football and tornadoes.

Then you have the business model of all the local news stations almost completely driven by weather coverage (they will all freely admit that).

We just have so many resources devoted to severe weather, and that apparatus is increasingly looking for things to do. At least from the TV perspective, that's a formula for disproportionate hype.

I think I recall back in the 90s (when I was growing up) they didn't do wall to wall coverage as much. It seemed like they more often just kept the map in the corner and provided updates with the blue scroll, cut in only on the commercials. They only went wall to wall when a tornado was on the ground or imminent.

I could be recalling incorrectly, but my impression was that when they went wall to wall then it really meant something. Now not necessarily.

Go time 9 central. Just waiting on the low level jet.

Poor Cole. Getting hit again.

Tornado heading to the Riverwind Casino and south Norman and OU campus.

I think I recall back in the 90s (when I was growing up) they didn't do wall to wall coverage as much. It seemed like they more often just kept the map in the corner and provided updates with the blue scroll, cut in only on the commercials. They only went wall to wall when a tornado was on the ground or imminent.

I could be recalling incorrectly, but my impression was that when they went wall to wall then it really meant something. Now not necessarily.

when I was a kid, Fred Norman, Ross Dixon and Gary England would yell tornado, we would go out and see if we could see a funnel. No shelter, just see if you can get a pic

Since then, there have been quite a few F5 city eating tornados with loss of life..... everyone takes criticism for poor forecasting, whether there is something or not. So I would rather them do wall-to-wall coverage and bust. then be caught by surprise...

Pretty sure Norman and Moore aren't saying "bust" at the moment.

when I was a kid, Fred Norman, Ross Dixon and Gary England would yell tornado, we would go out and see if we could see a funnel. No shelter, just see if you can get a pic

Since then, there have been quite a few F5 city eating tornados with loss of life..... everyone takes criticism for poor forecasting, whether there is something or not. So I would rather them do wall-to-wall coverage and bust. then be caught by surprise...

I'm not complaining! Just noting a difference.

Ardmore getting hit on the southern end.

What a difference the LLJ makes....

things are ramping up, luckily they’re not here in the city, but I feel bad for Ardmore, etc.

I'm not complaining! Just noting a difference.

oh I know, I was just thinking out loud about what I remember9

Is OKC metro done with tornados since leading edge is out East?

Finally getting a good heavy rain in Stillwater.

The OKC Metro was largely spared today thankfully but there’s been quite a bit of tornadic activity elsewhere - Sulphur, Norman, Ardmore, etc. And eastern Oklahoma isn’t done yet.