So if I am reading this correctly the area of concern is essentially along and east of I-35 but *especially* focusing in NE Oklahoma with this late morning dynamic into the early evening.

Little bit farther east probably highway 75 Storm prediction center has even went enhanced and upped the tornado risk to a 10% hatched area for pretty much all of Eastern Oklahoma

Oh what I would give for this place to just get rain. No hand wringing over a thunderstorm, no excitement over chasing tornadoes. Just regular old rain without any drama.......

Oh what I would give for this place to just get rain. No hand wringing over a thunderstorm, no excitement over chasing tornadoes. Just regular old rain without any drama.......

Seattle. The weather part of the local news was always about 2 minutes long (if that), never any break-ins to shows, etc.

Dryline is about to move through the Metro which should end our severe threat for the day, although I would say that supercells could form as far west as US-177.

SPC has stayed with an Enhanced Risk (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html) for tomorrow, see the below text box for their reasoning. About to look at the 12z suite of convection-allowing models and will probably post my thoughts on tomorrow thereafter.


Due to the influence of the morning convection and potential for messy storm modes/convective evolution Saturday afternoon, confidence was not high enough to include greater tornado and/or hail probabilities across the southern/central Plains at this time.

Tomorrow is still a very complicated setup, but here are my thoughts at the moment.

1) A complex of elevated thunderstorms will develop in Northwest Texas around 6 a.m. or so. Between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m., this complex will lift NE and move through the Metro, accompanied by a risk of large hail. I would expect these storms to stay predominately elevated, but if they arrive towards the end of the timeframe listed in the previous sentence, they could take on some surface-based characteristics, in which case all hazards would be possible, although there probably would not be enough surface-level instability for anything too significant.

2) It does not appear that this complex will result in the formation of a large cold pool. Between that, the favorable moisture profile, and the favorable upper-level dynamics, the atmosphere should be able to quickly destabilize behind this first round of storms. Sometime between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., supercells appear likely to fire along the dryline. The dryline could be located as far east as US-81, but given that the models have tended to overestimate the dryline push thus far this spring, I tend to feel that a more likely positioning is somewhere in the vicinity of the US-183 corridor. It will ultimately be a nowcast situation, and in any case, storms are likely to rapidly intensify shortly after initiation. The potent upper-level trough that is causing this event has trended more amplified in recent model solutions, which seems like it could lead to a messy, semi-discrete storm mode as opposed to a classic discrete supercell event (an older event that I'm thinking of as a potential analog for tomorrow is April 26th, 2016). Nevertheless, parameters should still be more than enough for a significant severe weather event impacting the Metro early tomorrow evening. Tornadoes (some potentially strong), hail up to the size of baseballs, and 70 mph wind gusts all appear possible.

3) Finally, as the main forcing arrives later in the evening, another QLCS will likely sweep across the state overnight. Models appear conflicted as to whether this event will be distinct from the late afternoon dryline initiation, or whether the dryline storms will eventually congeal into a QLCS. Regardless, the QLCS threat should be similar to this morning; predominately damaging wind, with a secondary threat of sporadic large hail and brief tornado spin-ups. Given that the upper-level flow will be of a similar orientation as the dryline/frontal boundary, forward motion of the storms could also be relatively slow, resulting in training storms and a corresponding flooding threat. Storms should move out shortly before the start of the marathon on Sunday Morning.

Latest models really not looking great. The HRRR has some strong elevated storms that actually looks to knock back storm chances in the late afternoon, and the high res NAM is showing a line that fires up just east of okc. Sheesh…could use some rain where I’m at as we were missed by the storms the other night. This storm season really hasn’t quite come together so far this year. I guess we’ll see what happens though.

Latest models really not looking great. The HRRR has some strong elevated storms that actually looks to knock back storm chances in the late afternoon, and the high res NAM is showing a line that fires up just east of okc. Sheesh…could use some rain where I’m at as we were missed by the storms the other night. This storm season really hasn’t quite come together so far this year. I guess we’ll see what happens though.

I'm all for getting needed rain, but never going to feel bad when a bad storm forecast goes south. I'll take a calm storm season any year.

I still think we’re going to get a good amount of rain either way tomorrow, so if we could manage to thread the needle with regards to avoiding a high-end severe weather event, that would be great.

Haven’t paid too much attention to anything after tomorrow, but I believe the upcoming pattern for the first half of May continues to favor above-normal precipitation chances, as well. Granted, given the time of year that also likely means continued severe weather chances.

I'm all for getting needed rain, but never going to feel bad when a bad storm forecast goes south. I'll take a calm storm season any year.

I'm not as geeked out as some here about NAM and EURO and the other acronyms, so I may need some folks to dumb it down a bit for the folks in the peanut gallery.

I agree with the sentiment expressed here, but Oklahoma County is currently under a flood watch by the NWS. Are we really going to strike out again on getting any significant rain?

I'm not as geeked out as some here about NAM and EURO and the other acronyms, so I may need some folks to dumb it down a bit for the folks in the peanut gallery.

I agree with the sentiment expressed here, but Oklahoma County is currently under a flood watch by the NWS. Are we really going to strike out again on getting any significant rain?

The acronyms are just names for the different mathematical models, each weighting various factors differently. I'm no expert at reading these models, but the NAM seems to show one narrow line coming in midday, and the next line much later forming atop or even east of OKC. I think this forecast is complex enough to make any firm predictions really tough. If we do get a line through early AND it "beats up" the atmosphere enough, it might limit how strong the *next* line can get. The key fuel is unstable air, primed for lifting by heat, so if a bunch of storms come through and stabilizes it, there goes your "fuel." But it doesn't preclude rain.

The complexity here is that the first round of storms may not "beat up" the atmosphere enough to *prevent* stronger storms later. Really hard to say with certainty in this dynamic and very likely why SPC hasn't been more aggressive with their outlooks.

The acronyms are just names for the different mathematical models, each weighting various factors differently. I'm no expert at reading these models, but the NAM seems to show one narrow line coming in midday, and the next line much later forming atop or even east of OKC. I think this forecast is complex enough to make any firm predictions really tough. If we do get a line through early AND it "beats up" the atmosphere enough, it might limit how strong the *next* line can get. The key fuel is unstable air, primed for lifting by heat, so if a bunch of storms come through and stabilizes it, there goes your "fuel." But it doesn't preclude rain.

The complexity here is that the first round of storms may not "beat up" the atmosphere enough to *prevent* stronger storms later. Really hard to say with certainty in this dynamic and very likely why SPC hasn't been more aggressive with their outlooks.

Thank you. I do actually know what the models are and what they represent. It was more of a gentle request for more layman's language and less jargon.

Mike Morgan (I know) just mentioned that OKC could pick up up to 7 inches of rain, with a widespread three to four inches of rain. It's starting to seem like this is more of a high-end flooding event as opposed to a supercellular event. That would be welcomed.

Regardless, it looks like we are going to get a nice soaking rain. Let's hope so. We will need as much as we can get before La Nina takes over.

Thank you. I do actually know what the models are and what they represent. It was more of a gentle request for more layman's language and less jargon.

Mike Morgan (I know) just mentioned that OKC could pick up up to 7 inches of rain, with a widespread three to four inches of rain. It's starting to seem like this is more of a high-end flooding event as opposed to a supercellular event. That would be welcomed.

Regardless, it looks like we are going to get a nice soaking rain. Let's hope so. We will need as much as we can get before La Nina takes over.

Okay, sorry I misunderstood the question. Hope it didn't sound derogatory, didn't mean to. I'm a computer guy who kinda follows weather so the models and such kinda pique my interest but I realize not everyone gets into it like that.

Going to be out and about taking photos tomorrow so not sure how much more I’m going to post on this event, but one final thing I’ll say is that we might be trending towards an outcome in which the morning convection largely stays in Western Oklahoma, possibly not approaching the Metro until after midday, at which point the storms may be starting to take on supercellular characteristics. All in all, still a very complicated event, but certainly a day to stay weather aware.

SPC has upgraded the entire Metro to a Moderate Risk for both tornadoes and hail.

Some very strong wording in this outlook. I could see them going to a high risk tomorrow if the morning round of storms don’t kill the atmosphere

https://x.com/nwsspc/status/1784102234445463989?s=46

To me it seems the early development will have supercell characteristics, so hail threat high. Then the dryline fires off and those storms will be big hail and tornado threat.

I do think S and SE of OKC will be the largest tornado threat due to limited contamination from earlier convection.

Flood threat very high just E of all of I-44.

So we are bracing for two big rounas of storms in the OKC area, one in the morning/midday, then another later depending how how much the first round stabilizes the atmosphere? Are we looking at, say, noon then 5-6 pm, or earlier/later? Just trying to assess a time frame. I'm looking at the NAM and it seems to suggest a first round in central OK around 1pm then the next much later, around perhaps 10-11pm?

Do we have to brace for a Moore type event potentially. i hope that there is a morning round of storms that kills the atmosphere because it looks like a nightmare otherwise, so far we don't have that

Do we have to brace for a Moore type event potentially. i hope that there is a morning round of storms that kills the atmosphere because it looks like a nightmare otherwise, so far we don't have that

What concerns me is I'm looking at radar for any signs of morning initiation anywhere and I'm not seeing it. Heck I'm even looking for some NWS MD products for "first round" initiation and there are none active. Gotta admit that's a little concerning.

Can someone eli5 please

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2024042709_012_35.4--97.57.png

Sounding in SW OKC for 9Z

they used May 3rd 99 as a reference

they used May 3rd 99 as a reference

So we're looking at a possible upgrade to a PDS watch it would seem at some point today. Ugh.

First MD of the day out, and a severe storm watch is likely to be issued within the hour for western OK

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0537.html

Looks like first initiation occurring NE of Lubbock moving NE at a pretty good clip.

First watch of the day issued. Tornado Watch for Western Oklahoma until 1pm. It's going to be a long day!

Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway across northwest Texas, and these storms will spread northeastward across western Oklahoma through the morning. Despite the time of day, the environment will favor supercell clusters capable of producing a few tornadoes, very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph.

they used May 3rd 99 as a reference

Does the forecasting product automatically generate that analog? Concerning seeing actual data comparisons and not just someone automatically comparing everything to May 3rd.

Trying to predict exactly how today's event will unfold is going to be incredibly challenging, but it's safe to say that overnight trends have been alarming and seem to suggest a higher-end event is relatively likely.

All in all, probably a good day to just keep a close eye on the radar and your most trusted weather source. Nowcasting is going to be key for understanding how things are evolving, even more so than on your typical significant severe weather day in Oklahoma. I would assume all of the local stations are going to be doing live coverage for much of the day, and for however bad they are about hyping things up in advance of these events, I do feel that their live coverage tends to be legitimately good.

There's word going around that they're gonna issue a high risk and A PDS tornado watch by 11.

There's word going around that they're gonna issue a high risk and A PDS tornado watch by 11.

After looking at those hodographs and all the language SPC has used in the prior statements, I can't say I'm surprised.

I am curious why the storms in west OK have not really been able to organize better. They seem to pulse up, then wane. Odd.

Meanwhile, here in OKC there are breaks in the clouds and some sunshine peeking through. More warming in central OK isn't going to help.

New Mesoscale Discussion out
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0538.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0538.png

Approaching lunch hours we will need to watch for a few rogue supercells fire ahead of the dryline across NW TX/SW OK. However, current visible satellite isn't supporting this potential at the moment. Early afternoon we should see the entire dryline ignite and begin shoving east. It will be a very messy setup and likely involve several clusters of supercells. With storms fighting each other for space and energy, we could see a narrow corridor of significant storms training over the same area. This zone will likely shift and "breath" as the storms outflow boundaries create new environments for further development.

To me, the most likely area for this is from around Vernon (TX) to Lawton to Norman and moving ESE from there.

Approaching lunch hours we will need to watch for a few rogue supercells fire ahead of the dryline across NW TX/SW OK. However, current visible satellite isn't supporting this potential at the moment. Early afternoon we should see the entire dryline ignite and begin shoving east. It will be a very messy setup and likely involve several clusters of supercells. With storms fighting each other for space and energy, we could see a narrow corridor of significant storms training over the same area. This zone will likely shift and "breath" as the storms outflow boundaries create new environments for further development.

To me, the most likely area for this is from around Vernon (TX) to Lawton to Norman and moving ESE from there.
That area you describe sure seems to mimic the region I saw on on of the model runs this morning.
The dynamics of this situation are really interesting and make nailing things down tougher

Approaching lunch hours we will need to watch for a few rogue supercells fire ahead of the dryline across NW TX/SW OK. However, current visible satellite isn't supporting this potential at the moment. Early afternoon we should see the entire dryline ignite and begin shoving east. It will be a very messy setup and likely involve several clusters of supercells. With storms fighting each other for space and energy, we could see a narrow corridor of significant storms training over the same area. This zone will likely shift and "breath" as the storms outflow boundaries create new environments for further development.

To me, the most likely area for this is from around Vernon (TX) to Lawton to Norman and moving ESE from there.

Is that area the most likely for storm development?

2 Tornado Warnings Already

Nadocast shows OKC in a 60% https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMLs_iSaYAAdQ3S?format=jpg&name=large

they extended the mesoscale disscussion to include OKC
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0539.png

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0539.html

Solar radiation really picking up across SW and C OK. NWS already planning for PDS wording on future watches.

So i guess Moore will be squarely in the firing line? All of OKC will hopefully get a solid drink, to help with the summer fire season.

So i guess Moore will be squarely in the firing line? All of OKC will hopefully get a solid drink, to help with the summer fire season.

Moore, Oklahoma - magnet for EF5 tornadoes.

So are we getting a better idea of timeline for greater OKC?

SPC has expanded the Moderate Risk for hail and wind probabilities to the NW just a bit. This will encompass ongoing storms between Woodward and Enid.


Show is about to start for SW OK. Towers exploding ahead of the dryline near Vernon TX. We will likely see PDS TOR issued for all of NW TX, SW OK, and C OK by noon.



So are we getting a better idea of timeline for greater OKC?

Need to watch radar, currently there is cells trying to go up ahead of the dryline, which if they survive, moves [potential] OKC impacts earlier.

Strong storms in northwest Oklahoma headed for Kansas. But less extensive storms in southwest Oklahoma need monitored for further development:

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/nids/maps/realtime/Oklahoma.MosaicBREF.png?cache_bust=1691479459890

When are we expecting storms to hit the metro?

Marty Logan gonna be on Payne’s **** list after this storm. The dude has been out of position badly on these recent storms.

PDS tornado watch just issued. Includes the west side of the city.

PDS tornado watch just issued. Includes the west side of the city.

Interesting to note it does *not* include OK or Cleveland counties, at least not for now.

Some of the earlier towers are finally becoming established. Also new towers going up directly W of OKC.

These cells out in front of the dryline are particularly concerning as they will tend to stay more discrete.

Norman Music Festival canceled for today.

Cells going up directly over OKC as well.

This transitioning to full nowcast situation. If you are looking for new info - I would tune into the local media stations as they should all be well into their full coverage mode.


NWS has expanded the watch box to include all of OKC. (No idea why this wasn't done in the first place?)

That developed SO FAST. From nothing to dark and then pouring rain in NW OKC. 5-10 minutes at most.

Tornado watch just issued for Cleveland n Oklahoma counties

Marty Logan gonna be on Payne’s **** list after this storm. The dude has been out of position badly on these recent storms.

I can't believe people watch David Payne. It's Damon or bust for me.

I can't believe people watch David Payne. It's Damon or bust for me.

I've had Payne on in the background and he's really been quite measured so far.

I can't believe people watch David Payne. It's Damon or bust for me.

He's not crazy today, there are some priceless quotes already though.

I am stuck with News 9, due to no cable or antenna, and having Paramount+.

I think Payne is both informative and entertaining.

For some reason the signal quality for channel 5 is always bad here on the west side of okc

For some reason the signal quality for channel 5 is always bad here on the west side of okc

Yes I had that problem, too, and I'm in West OKC. But I don't know if they made a change or what but I now have no trouble getting it over the air. I have DirecTV but just switch to OTA on days like this.

Latest HRRR shows this ahead-of-dryline action slowing down. Development focus will then turn to the dryline which has two beasts going on it down across NW TX heading towards Vernon area.