Models this morning are continuing a trend to move the majority of meaningful weekend rainfall to the southern parts of the state. We will still have the cooler air - the front is currently across NW/W OK and moving ESE.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2024041806/rgem_apcpn_scus_84.png

Here we go already with the space between May 1st and May 15th being very active. We better start a May discussion group soon. SMH People will never learn will they.

Or we can just wait until next late next week. Unless SPC starts hinting at something 6 days out again. :)

Or we can just wait until next late next week. Unless SPC starts hinting at something 6 days out again. :)

From SPC: High pressure
will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but
return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around
Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over
the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for
most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or
beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles.

SO CLOSE ENOUGH IT'S GOING TO BE AN OUTBREAK. :)

Hold on here we go. SPC slight risk day 7. The hype train is going to be fully going. We're going to have tornadoes and they're going to be between 4:00 and 6:00. :) What's that story about the boy that called wolf? Seriously I'm starting to even get that way with all this.

Catch me not getting into specifics with any of this until we’re within range of the convection allowing models (a wise idea in general, but especially so given how Monday’s event unfolded), but yes the general pattern looks favorable in terms of severe weather potential for the foreseeable future (shocker for the Southern Plains in late April/early May, I know) so I would expect that something will eventually happen in that regard.

Rain chances for this weekend continue to get sadder for OKC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2024041912/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_48.png

Rinse and repeat.

Good set up could be a 3 day event.. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. April 25-27. However we have had 4 other events that didn't pan out at all we shall see.

Good set up could be a 3 day event.. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. April 25-27. However we have had 4 other events that didn't pan out at all we shall see.

This is a common pattern. Usually the atmosphere really starts ramping up in potency in the last week or so of April and definitely the first half of May. Sure, they may not pan out but historical data would suggest that moving into the next 3-4 weeks, things tend to pan out.

Looks like most of the rain is staying south of the Red River today. Too bad, this is the kind of steady rainfall we need this time of year.

Looking ahead the next rain chances statewide start Wednesday into Friday with multiple rounds of rain/thunderstorms possible. The active pattern should continue into the following week.

Looks like most of the rain is staying south of the Red River today. Too bad, this is the kind of steady rainfall we need this time of year.

Looking ahead the next rain chances statewide start Wednesday into Friday with multiple rounds of rain/thunderstorms possible. The active pattern should continue into the following week.

Even today was kind of a bust for what they were calling for last night less than 24 hours before the event. JS

SPC seems to be keeping the wording a bit lighter this time. Kind of surprised they don't have a risk for Saturday as that looks like a really good day for storms. Maybe they have learned their lesson? Anyway things are going to massively change but dryline is going to come in move east retreat back west at night move east. Thursday far western Oklahoma, Friday eastern Oklahoma, Saturday western/central Oklahoma, Sunday eastern Oklahoma. Where is the dryline going to sets up is the key and of course won't know that until morning of the event but all 4 days have a chance of storms in the state of Oklahoma.

Saturday has been added to SPC's list... currently, portions of Oklahoma have risk for at least 5 days this week, Tuesday - Saturday. Central Oklahoma is included in Wednesday - Saturday.

Saturday has been added to SPC's list... currently, portions of Oklahoma have risk for at least 5 days this week, Tuesday - Saturday. Central Oklahoma is included in Wednesday - Saturday.

Too me Saturday looks the best. I do think there are going to be enhanced risks areas added. Maybe for all 3 days. If I had to pick one it would probably be Saturday.

I would agree that Saturday looks most favorable for severe weather at the moment. Regardless, it is looking to be a very stormy period starting Wednesday and continuing through at least the end of the weekend. Would think the weekend system should probably be strong enough to usher in a stable airmass behind it, but storm chances could continue on into next week if that isn’t the case.

And the Local TV Mets are off and rolling. IT'S ONLY MONDAY. We have tornado maps, and hail maps and rain maps. UGH it's ONLY MONDAY.

Thinking there will be three main chances for convection in this pattern. First, would expect some elevated hailers in the vicinity of the Metro starting tomorrow morning as a warm front stalls to our south. Still too far out for exact details, but it appears there is the potential for repeated rounds of elevated convection until the front eventually lifts to our north tomorrow evening. Second, would expect a significant severe threat in NW Oklahoma/SW Kansas on Thursday Afternoon/Evening as the initial disturbance moves into the area. This convection will then look to arrive in the Metro near the diurnal minimum on Friday Morning, which should result in a reduced (but nonzero) severe weather potential relative to points northwest. Convection should move to our east by midday Friday resulting in pleasant conditions on Friday Afternoon/Evening. Lastly, another strong disturbance should move into the area during the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday. This is the one that I feel has the highest probability of resulting in a significant severe weather event for the Metro, but we are still ~ 108 hours out, so I'll leave it at that for now.

So far out. SPC for Saturday: The synoptic pattern depicted by much of the extended-range
guidance is suggestive of an active severe thunderstorm episode
along/ahead of the dryline, though some guidance (notably recent
runs of the ECMWF) suggest potential for early development across
parts of OK/north TX, which could complicate the scenario by late
afternoon/evening

SPC For Thursday: Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat
uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday
evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the
TX/OK Panhandles.

In other words. There may be storms we don't know check back 24 hours before the event. I will say though Saturday likely will go enhanced.

So, chances are:
Tomorrow AM
Friday AM
Saturday PM

Close at all?

As of right now, I would say:

7 a.m. Wednesday - 1 p.m. Wednesday
10 p.m. Wednesday - 4 a.m. Thursday (low confidence)
10 p.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday
4 p.m. Saturday - 1 a.m. Sunday

With generally increasing severe potential as we go along. But still very much subject to change.

I do feel fairly confident that tomorrow’s severe potential will largely be limited to elevated hailers, and that Thursday’s severe potential will peak to our west. I feel even more confident that the Friday afternoon/evening event will occur well to our east. Still concerned about Saturday’s high-end potential but suspect that a lot of uncertainty will remain until Friday Morning, at which point the convection-allowing models will come into range and we’ll have a good idea of the Thursday system’s effect on moisture return.

Would also note that the SPC issued a relatively rare Day 3 outlook upgrade about an hour ago (from Slight to Enhanced) but that the area they upgraded is well to the west of the Metro, which goes along with the general thinking that convection from this system should be in a weakening state as it moves into OKC.

Looking at just the GFS the Dryline is going to be around for a couple of weeks in the Texas panhandle. Western Oklahoma could be active for a few weeks. Saturday only question is do storms form in the morning limiting instability for the afternoon

Short ranges models are getting a little Spicy for Thursday for Texas Panhandle far Western Oklahoma Sw Kansas.

EURO forecasted rainfall through the weekend. It will be interesting to see where the bulls-eye for highest amounts ends up but 3-4” possible in some parts of C and E OK. Hopefully this verifies because we need it badly
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024042318/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_30.png

And here comes the CAP for Thursday. At least the SPC said IF storm can remain discreet or form at all. That being said for the Metro might see a decent squall line move it about 3am Friday morning It's going to change check back again tomorrow evening.

SPC has kept the 30% risk in western OK for tomorrow (Thursday), keeping central OK slight into Friday. They have also modified the Saturday forecast to include a 30% severe risk region for essentially the central third of the state, extending to south central Kansas.

Storms coming toward C OK from the NW currently. Nothing serious at this time.

Storm threat should be over until sunset. There may be another round overnight, but areas north and east of OKC will likely be favored. If we are impacted, main threat will once again be marginally severe hail.

Tomorrow is starting to look a lot like last Monday with convection-allowing models very ambivalent about dryline initiation across the Panhandles prior to sunset. I do think there is a better chance of overnight QLCS formation this time around, but it would likely not get to the Metro until well after midnight, so not expecting too much of a severe weather threat, although you can’t rule it out given the favorable dynamics.

Saturday continues to look concerning, particularly with this morning’s GFS ensembles slowing the arrival of the potent shortwave trough, which could limit early-day elevated convection if that trend continues. If we do avoid early-day convection on Saturday, all parameters seem to favor the potential for a significant, high-end severe weather event. Stay tuned.

Really need to keep an eye on Saturday however it's only Wednesday so things are going to change but Saturday looks pretty incredible for storms. Could be I'll say that again. COULD BE one of the best setups we've seen in a long time

Like last time, I don't expect anything very strong in north central Oklahoma unless the sun can get through to cause highs to get well into the 80s. That is what it will take to have a better chance of getting through the cap, if it remains through the period.

Dry conditions are worst in the northern 1/3 of the state:

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/drought424.png

Like last time, I don't expect anything very strong in north central Oklahoma unless the sun can get through to cause highs to get well into the 80s. That is what it will take to have a better chance of getting through the cap, if it remains through the period.

Dry conditions are worst in the northern 1/3 of the state:

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/drought424.png

We could always use more rain. No cap or very little cap on Saturday. This time around that might be helpful as weak morning storms might work over the atmosphere before the wave comes in. IF BIG IF 3 DAYS OUT but If we have a small but breakable cap and no morning convection Saturday could be big.

We could always use more rain. No cap or very little cap on Saturday. This time around that might be helpful as weak morning storms might work over the atmosphere before the wave comes in. IF BIG IF 3 DAYS OUT but If we have a small but breakable cap and no morning convection Saturday could be big.

Well, in all honesty, I hope it isn't "big." Would love another "bust" forecast b/c big storms often cause a lot of havoc...we shall see.

Like last time, I don't expect anything very strong in north central Oklahoma unless the sun can get through to cause highs to get well into the 80s. That is what it will take to have a better chance of getting through the cap, if it remains through the period.

Dry conditions are worst in the northern 1/3 of the state:


GFS and EURO have both been consistent in 3"+ totals with possible higher amounts for northern OK through the weekend

Well, in all honesty, I hope it isn't "big." Would love another "bust" forecast b/c big storms often cause a lot of havoc...we shall see.

And it very well could if we have a lot of morning convection. However all signs are pointing to a big event. Keep checking it will change 8 more times by Saturday

SPC has upgraded SW and C OK to Enhanced Risk for storms coming out of NW TX late tonight. Wind and hail primary threat.

First look at the convection-allowing models suggests that there will be a lot of elevated convection on Saturday Morning.

First look at the convection-allowing models suggests that there will be a lot of elevated convection on Saturday Morning.

Could still be interesting either way but morning storms will help keep instability down

Sometimes with these complex multi-day convective setups, I like to make a table comparing the output of the different convection-allowing models. I am sharing that table here. Please note that this does not represent an endorsement of any of these solutions, it’s just meant to help make sense of the different potential outcomes.

As you can see, there is a high likelihood of OKC getting hit by a round of storms early tomorrow morning, with severe potential increasing as a majority of models show the QLCS remaining relatively robust even as it moves through the Metro shortly before the diurnal minimum.

Meanwhile, Saturday clearly has a lot of high-end potential, albeit with the final outcome still very much up in the air and likely dependent on the extent of early-day elevated convection and any corresponding cold pool, which could work to stabilize the atmosphere for an extended period of time and therefore put a ceiling on the extent and severity of any potential supercells which initiate around or shortly after the diurnal maximum.

Finally, this is just beyond the range of the convection-allowing models, but would also note that a lot of the traditional models are narrowing in on an extensive swath of thunderstorms that will likely train over the same areas for much of the overnight period on Saturday. Wherever this occurs, there will likely be an extended period of both severe weather and flash flooding. Currently, this seems most likely to occur just southeast of the OKC Metro, but we are certainly still within the margin of error for potential impacts.

18792

^ Very cool. Thanks for sharing.

Saturday is very complex. I think we could see severe storms hit OKC early in the day, then threat for supercells off cleared-out dryline occurring later that evening across SW - SC OK. There is also the possibility that instead of waves of development, we have warm sector supercells firing across all of C OK that afternoon into evening ahead of the dryline. Check out this rainfall map.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2024042512/rgem_apcpn_scus_84.png

QCLS is more than likely tonight and the great chart above shows. Only one model saying storms stay south. Better question is QCLS tornadoes or just wind and hail? Maybe early in SW Oklahoma might get a tornado? Something to keep an eye on. It's not zero for the tornado threat also not very high either.

I tend to think that all hazards will be in play tonight given the strength of most model solutions and the fact that there doesn’t appear to be any cap inhibiting surface-based convection on the forecast soundings. These overnight events make me nervous because they often aren’t that strong given the lack of surface heating, so the bust potential still seems fairly high. But given the dynamics in play, the worst-case scenario could be fairly high-end.

Sometimes with these complex multi-day convective setups, I like to make a table comparing the output of the different convection-allowing models. I am sharing that table here. Please note that this does not represent an endorsement of any of these solutions, it’s just meant to help make sense of the different potential outcomes.

As you can see, there is a high likelihood of OKC getting hit by a round of storms early tomorrow morning, with severe potential increasing as a majority of models show the QLCS remaining relatively robust even as it moves through the Metro shortly before the diurnal minimum.

Meanwhile, Saturday clearly has a lot of high-end potential, albeit with the final outcome still very much up in the air and likely dependent on the extent of early-day elevated convection and any corresponding cold pool, which could work to stabilize the atmosphere for an extended period of time and therefore put a ceiling on the extent and severity of any potential supercells which initiate around or shortly after the diurnal maximum.

Finally, this is just beyond the range of the convection-allowing models, but would also note that a lot of the traditional models are narrowing in on an extensive swath of thunderstorms that will likely train over the same areas for much of the overnight period on Saturday. Wherever this occurs, there will likely be an extended period of both severe weather and flash flooding. Currently, this seems most likely to occur just southeast of the OKC Metro, but we are certainly still within the margin of error for potential impacts.

18792

Great writeup, thank you. Sounds like the ceiling for Saturday is high but super conditional on early-day convection holding off. Or at least that seems to be the assessment of NWS Norman:

18793

Meanwhile, Mike Morgan is already calling an MDT outlook for Saturday :banghead:

https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1783333240104690025?s=46

Great writeup, thank you. Sounds like the ceiling for Saturday is high but super conditional on early-day convection holding off. Or at least that seems to be the assessment of NWS Norman:

18793

Meanwhile, Mike Morgan is already calling an MDT outlook for Saturday :banghead:

https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1783333240104690025?s=46

Not weather-related, but Morgan needs to proofread, that is absolutely pathetic WRT to the way the English language is supposed to be written.

It looks like the storm is coming in a lot slower than originally forecasted? Very little activity across Oklahoma so far but Sunday chances have increased.

It looks like the storm is coming in a lot slower than originally forecasted? Very little activity across Oklahoma so far but Sunday chances have increased.

So are they lowering the threat from Saturday or just adding Sunday to the mix?

Not weather-related, but Morgan needs to proofread, that is absolutely pathetic WRT to the way the English language is supposed to be written.
Appropriate, because Morgan is kinda pathetic anyway

Unless I am completely misreading it, which is entirely possible, it looks to me like the NAM has backed *way* off Saturday storm potential and moved more into late-night/early Sunday. Will be interesting to see if later HRRR runs follow suit.

Unless I am completely misreading it, which is entirely possible, it looks to me like the NAM has backed *way* off Saturday storm potential and moved more into late-night/early Sunday. Will be interesting to see if later HRRR runs follow suit.

Yes and no Does show line of storms around the metro at midnight but also keeps trying to form storms in Western Oklahoma all afternoon. They look like little tiny storms but the signal is there that's its trying tor form storms. One by Woodward 1 pm, Another small blimp 5pm far western Oklahoma on i-40

Yes and no Does show line of storms around the metro at midnight but also keeps trying to form storms in Western Oklahoma all afternoon. They look like little tiny storms but the signal is there that's its trying tor form storms. One by Woodward 1 pm, Another small blimp 5pm far western Oklahoma on i-40

Those are high elevation storms throughout the day. Basically, there’s a ton of energy and moisture with limited cap expected so it’s easy for those storms to fire. The high res NAM fires storms pretty much just west of the city. It’s easy to look at that and say it will line out and not be a problem. If you look close, there are dozens of individual supercells, and they’re going to go up spinning given the atmosphere parameters. The models don’t show massive super cells that stay isolated for a long time but I’m willing to bet the several of those small individual storms drop tornadoes before lining out just east of the city.

Those are high elevation storms throughout the day. Basically, there’s a ton of energy and moisture with limited cap expected so it’s easy for those storms to fire. The high res NAM fires storms pretty much just west of the city. It’s easy to look at that and say it will line out and not be a problem. If you look close, there are dozens of individual supercells, and they’re going to go up spinning given the atmosphere parameters. The models don’t show massive super cells that stay isolated for a long time but I’m willing to bet the several of those small individual storms drop tornadoes before lining out just east of the city.

Have you seen the 00Z HRRR wow.

Tonight threat seems to get later and later. 5am time frame and maybe a bit further south? I haven't look at all the models don't have time right now anything new to report?

Have you seen the 00Z HRRR wow.

Early convection comes through but doesn't erode the atmosphere enough to prevent a monster supercell from traveling up I-44 from Chickasha through the metro at 7pm. Just one run of one CAM but a heckuva run nonetheless. I think we see the SPC pull the trigger on a day 2 MDT

MD is out across NW TX. Should see a watch issued soon for developing MCS and potential to gain momentum as it speeds toward OK.

We certainly aren’t out of the woods, but convective trends and recent model runs do lead me to believe that the bullseye for tonight’s severe weather threat has shifted somewhat south of the Metro. We shall see, I won’t be staying up until 4:00 a.m. for it lol.

(But I might just stay up another hour to see if the SPC does roll with a Day 2 Moderate for Saturday’s event.)

There could be a storm or two east of the Metro later today on Friday and Saturday. I don't know. I don't think anybody knows. Yes we might have morning convection which will help some but the atmosphere may be so juiced up that it won't take much sun to come out after the morning convection to get things rolling again

400am was a blast last night (sarcasm). Got some nice rain, and got quite a bit of small hail.

So what is the setup for tomorrow?

Latest HRRR for tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon is pretty wild. Shows clusters of supercells firing ahead of the dryline that are short-lived and then firing a primary batch on the dryline shortly after.

After last night's MCS, flooding risk south of I-44 is high for tomorrow evening.

Need to make it through today still https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1783885429063987686

Update with what a model is showing. 11:20am https://x.com/PaxBiggs/status/1783893284974219588

Need to make it through today still https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1783885429063987686

Update with what a model is showing. 11:20am https://x.com/PaxBiggs/status/1783893284974219588

So if I am reading this correctly the area of concern is essentially along and east of I-35 but *especially* focusing in NE Oklahoma with this late morning dynamic into the early evening.