I think common sense dictates we all tap the brakes on everything other than acknowledging the SPC forecast for Monday. April and May are bad enough in Oklahoma without unintentional efforts to summon the next wave of destructive weather.

Yeah, there's clearly enough signals that Monday will be a weather-aware day but we don't need to go Full Morgan until we get closer

Yeah, there's clearly enough signals that Monday will be a weather-aware day but we don't need to go Full Morgan until we get closer

Go Full Morgan.

That's a t-shirt (or sparkly tie) idea if I ever heard one...

Go Full Morgan.

That's a t-shirt (or sparkly tie) idea if I ever heard one...

Funny enough, he was downplaying the event last night.

Funny enough, he was downplaying the event last night.

I know I had to go to the ER after I fell off my chair. I was in shock. :)

What kills me and I have watched 9,5,and 4 tonight is the fact they start talking about what time the storm is going to hit the metro. It's still 4 days a away and to be saying things like it will hit the metro between 10-11 or around midnight drives me crazy given that's it's still 4 days out. I'm not saying they are wrong it could happen but this far out to be given specific times. Heck we don't even know if there will be storms cap might build in.

What kills me and I have watched 9,5,and 4 tonight is the fact they start talking about what time the storm is going to hit the metro. It's still 4 days a away and to be saying things like it will hit the metro between 10-11 or around midnight drives me crazy given that's it's still 4 days out. I'm not saying they are wrong it could happen but this far out to be given specific times. Heck we don't even know if there will be storms cap might build in.

This *right here* is what drives me nuts. There's essentially *zero* scientific basis to make that granular a prediction *four days* ahead of the event. That's when the "j'accuse" of hype comes in full bore. And it's among the primary reasons I come here for general forecast information sans hype. That, plus an occasional glimpse at Tropical Tidbits, and the SPC, and that's good enough,

Can we say overnight Squall line with a strong cold front for central Oklahoma that will clean out the atmosphere and no storms the rest of the week? I'm sure it'll change again

We will see what the models say tomorrow. But, the squall line and the late evening metro timing. In the local TV world, if it doesn't have a major impact on the metro, they don't care about the rest of the state.

Can we say overnight Squall line with a strong cold front for central Oklahoma that will clean out the atmosphere and no storms the rest of the week? I'm sure it'll change again

The recent north winds already cleaned up the air. It was dirty in central Oklahoma, apparently from intended burns. The wind is now out of the south and the air is still clean and dry with very blue skies.

Regional Air Quality Report: https://map.purpleair.com/1/mAQI/a10/p604800/cC0#6.66/36.364/-97.297

Will there be clouds all day? Do rain showers form limiting instability? Will there be a cap? Is the slight Northward trend going to continue? System slowing down? So many question as of late Friday night. It could be huge event it could be a bust event. Stay tuned

Here's what the NWS sent out this evening:

The greatest uncertainty for Monday’s system continues to be with respect to timing:
The latest guidance continues to suggest a large spread in timing (e.g. 12Z NAM is significantly faster than the 12Z GFS). Usually, with these closed upper-level lows, the slower solution tends to be favored.
A faster solution would result in initial development near the 100th meridian (Oklahoma/Texas state line) late afternoon/early evening with storms moving eastward during the evening.
A slower solution would result in initial development in the Texas panhandle, which would advance eastward into Oklahoma and western north Texas late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning.
Both solutions result in the potential for significant severe weather, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (i.e., even if primary timing is overnight, there will be a risk of significant severe weather).

SPC seems to be favoring a slowing of the overall system late Monday into very early Tuesday.

While all modes of severe weather remain possible, including tornadoes, there definitely seems to be a "texturing" of the language in the forecast toward a significant hail event. The tenor of the forecast seems to focus on an area of particular interest from SW OK running NNE through central KS and into Nebraska.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Inadvertent duplicate, sorry. Deleted.

With this Cap will the Metro or anyone in the state see a storm? Starting to question that to be honest. I'm sure it's going to change again but that is where we stand as of Saturday evening

Yeah, models are indicating one heck of a cap in place. Looks like we’ll need mid to upper 80’s to break it. I think if the sun is out all day, that probably won’t be too insurmountable; however, looks like low level dewpoints will be very close to actual temps so I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a low level blanket of clouds that keeps us from heating up. Could ultimately be nothing. I’m sure this will change as we get closer as the cap seems a little extreme at the moment.

Yeah…starting to feel like this will be a nonevent. That cap is one of the bigger ones I’ve seen.

Yeah…starting to feel like this will be a nonevent. That cap is one of the bigger ones I’ve seen.

So to recap 6 days ago we were 30% risk only that only happen one time last year that turned into high risk day down to it might rain for an hour. There are some hints something in far SW Oklahoma might get going but I wouldn't hold my breath

So, is it going to be a stormy afternoon tomorrow or what?

I would say that it’s probably not going to be stormy UNLESS we see the temps gets north of 85 deg or so. Things could get interesting if that’s the case. Also, need to watch to see how strong the warm air inversion really comes in tomorrow. It’s possible that the models are overestimating it. It does seem to be a bit dramatic at the moment. Check back tomorrow morning and maybe sometime after lunch as I bet a special sounding is sent up around that time.

Working in the yard and feeling the HEAT today!

SPC continues to hedge a bit on tomorrow, narrowing and moving back the enhanced risk area to the west. The new area mimics the earlier discussion, focusing on a region from SW OK NNE to the KS border. Definite mention is made of the strong cap expected tomorrow, but the hedging in the *other* direction is evident in the qualifier in the forecast text saying they may need to alter that enhanced risk area yet again. Right now, the focus seems to be on the overnight period.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Sounds like any storms we get here in the metro will come after dark/overnight https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1779569231434318236

Again, the hype machine a week out. The cap will keep a lid on everything here severe-wise leaving just general rain and thunderstorms overnight Monday perhaps. I swear they just need to stick to a 5 or 7-day forecast and give details for the first two days then generalize the rest. For example on Sunday, give a detailed forecast for Monday and Tuesday, then generalize the rest of it. Then on Monday, detail Tuesday and Wednesday, then generalize the rest. Some guys are already calling for severe weather this Friday afternoon. Mike Morgan and his 7 ...... +4 day forecast. KOCO's "extended" 10 day. Man they just can't live without the drama. it's all under the pretense of "we do it so you're prepared." If ANY model shows anything that could bring drama they just throw it in there. Just put a rain chance percentage on that 11-day until 2 days before. They could've just not been detailed about tomorrow until yesterday and they would've seen it was going to be a non event, but no lets put the fear of God in people that really don't know and follow them like disciples. Just crazy. Sorry for the rant, just sick and tired of these weasels.

I don't listen to it, but almost everyone at my office talks about the weather forecasts all week -- Moms stressed out about what they're going to do with their kids baseball games -- a week out!

That being said, I do appreciate whole-heartedly the live reporting during actual events. As much as the Payne drama is almost too much to handle, he really knows his stuff as it's unfolding. Just wish they'd cool it on the week-out doomsday predictions.

Working in the yard and feeling the HEAT today!

It got up to 93 at my weather station. It was the hottest April 14 since 2012.

This afternoon, I had to turn on the cooling for the first time this year. The thermostat didn't work to turn it on until I pressed the reset button.

Again, the hype machine a week out. The cap will keep a lid on everything here severe-wise leaving just general rain and thunderstorms overnight Monday perhaps. I swear they just need to stick to a 5 or 7-day forecast and give details for the first two days then generalize the rest. For example on Sunday, give a detailed forecast for Monday and Tuesday, then generalize the rest of it. Then on Monday, detail Tuesday and Wednesday, then generalize the rest. Some guys are already calling for severe weather this Friday afternoon. Mike Morgan and his 7 ...... +4 day forecast. KOCO's "extended" 10 day. Man they just can't live without the drama. it's all under the pretense of "we do it so you're prepared." If ANY model shows anything that could bring drama they just throw it in there. Just put a rain chance percentage on that 11-day until 2 days before. They could've just not been detailed about tomorrow until yesterday and they would've seen it was going to be a non event, but no lets put the fear of God in people that really don't know and follow them like disciples. Just crazy. Sorry for the rant, just sick and tired of these weasels.

I don't listen to it, but almost everyone at my office talks about the weather forecasts all week -- Moms stressed out about what they're going to do with their kids baseball games -- a week out!

That being said, I do appreciate whole-heartedly the live reporting during actual events. As much as the Payne drama is almost too much to handle, he really knows his stuff as it's unfolding. Just wish they'd cool it on the week-out doomsday predictions.

TBF, the models were hinting at something quite prolific setting up, and they were fairly consistent up until the last couple of days. At that point, they started hinting at a more profound cap being in place. Given the setup that it was looking like (and still might be), I think it was definitely worth bringing it to people’s attention. You want people to be prepared with a plan rather than wait till the day before an event.

Btw, we’re still a day in front of this. There is going to be some crazy instability in the atmosphere. If the cap doesn’t come in as strong as the models say, we could still get some fairly strong storms develop. Need to wait and watch for the sounding in the morning and possibly the afternoon.

If the system was a tad bit faster, it would be a whole different story.

SPC has removed the enhanced risk area from Oklahoma with its current Day 1 Convective Outlook, leaving the region in a "Slight Risk" category. The enhanced risk area is now focused on the triple-point area in central Kansas into Nebraska.

The discussion does highlight continued uncertainty about the environment for severe development this afternoon/evening, and essentially echoes some of the discussion here: a very strong cap is in place, but if something does develop and break the cap, it will very likely be severe.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DANG IT another inadvertent duplicate. Sorry.

Just looked at this mornings sounding data and it looks like we’re going to have to be in the 90’s today to erode the cap. Somehow, I called the low level blanket of clouds last week, and it looks like that’s going to be in play today. Looks like today isn’t really going to be anything major unless something comes in after dark.

If this set up was in early-May, this would probably be a different story.

Best rain chances now are with storms along the front overnight. Not likely severe but if they are hail will be the primary threat.

Another chance of storms Thursday but whether or not moisture can return will impact if they are severe. Models have been trending toward most of the storms pushing into SE OK and Texas.

Best rain chances now are with storms along the front overnight. Not likely severe but if they are hail will be the primary threat.

Another chance of storms Thursday but whether or not moisture can return will impact if they are severe. Models have been trending toward most of the storms pushing into SE OK and Texas.

Dear heavens, not Thursday. That's my son's birthday, and last year we went to dinner for his birthday and got caught in a monstrous hailstorm. Not two years in a row. Sorry, personal indulgence...but just...no

It's going to be almost impossible to rlnreak this cap today. But I'll take the Mike Morgan approach. We might get a storm. We might not get a storm. Either way, I have it out. :). https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1779876257179582886

Latest HRRR shows it pretty quiet for most of the state, perhaps a cell or two can get up and going out of NW TX.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2024041512/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_24.png

If there's going to be a chance for storms in the Metro, it will be overnight early morning when the cap may break

So should I put on my Hail Protector? Pain to do so, but it works. I can live with dime or nickel but not larger.

So should I put on my Hail Protector? Pain to do so, but it works. I can live with dime or nickel but not larger.

IF a storm can break this cap it probably would be a pretty big storm but that is a BIG IF HUGE IF cause there is a HUGE CAP as of right now Monday Morning

Are there any NWS or SPC products that define or quantify the strength of the CAP?

Sure looks like the sun is trying to poke out of the thick morning cloud base. If we get unexpected clearing/heating that could change the game pretty fast going into the afternoon I'd think....

It would have to get very warm. Like in the 90’s.

It would have to get very warm. Like in the 90’s.

Yeah I looked at the satellite and the cloud deck isn't changing, and the mid level CIN is still huge.

Yeah, getting small elevated showers. No cap busting today.

HUH What is going on there Nam st with your 18z run. Blowing up storm around 10pm in Nw Oklahoma. Something maybe to keep an eye on? HRRR tries but doesn't really get them going.

HUH What is going on there Nam st with your 18z run. Blowing up storm around 10pm in Nw Oklahoma. Something maybe to keep an eye on? HRRR tries but doesn't really get them going.

Anything that might fire up would absolutely fly to the NE and into KS pretty fast, so that's not entirely inconsistent with the SPC guidance

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1780004008821665917 They could stay in Oklahoma for a bit but it's still a big IF that cap is still pretty strong.

8pm central. Cap is very strong over OKC. Hrrr is now picking up storms in NW Oklahoma North Central after 1am. I would think the would be very elevated with this cap so maybe some small hail overnight.

I won't call it a bust since this seemed likely to occur as early as Friday. The long-range 30% outlook did not verify, but that's why the max is set at 30% that far out, have to keep everything in perspective.

I won't call it a bust since this seemed likely to occur as early as Friday. The long-range 30% outlook did not verify, but that's why the max is set at 30% that far out, have to keep everything in perspective.

I would. From potential severe weather outbreak to not even rain, let alone a thunderstorm.

Nah. This wasn’t a bust. The models are not infallible 6 plus days out. Seems like you get some signals of something big heading your way but as you get closer to that day, you learn more and get more data. Then you adjust the forecast if necessary. That’s exactly what happened here.

I would call this a bust if they kept promoting a major severe weather outbreak yesterday but that didn’t happen.

Nah. This wasn’t a bust. The models are not infallible 6 plus days out. Seems like you get some signals of something big heading your way but as you get closer to that day, you learn more and get more data. Then you adjust the forecast if necessary. That’s exactly what happened here.

I would call this a bust if they kept promoting a major severe weather outbreak yesterday but that didn’t happen.

Yeah, there had to at least be a slight chance to cover the event that one storm did bust the cap. Forecast modeling and statistics is a concept the general public doesn't understand, but a lot of people do so official sources can't ignore it. They have to try to quantify the event even at 6 days out. Don't want the hypers to have the full stage.

Nah. This wasn’t a bust. The models are not infallible 6 plus days out. Seems like you get some signals of something big heading your way but as you get closer to that day, you learn more and get more data. Then you adjust the forecast if necessary. That’s exactly what happened here.

I would call this a bust if they kept promoting a major severe weather outbreak yesterday but that didn’t happen.

When the local-yocals here in the market take that storm prediction data from a week out and promote it as religion -- doom and gloom -- yes it's a bust. Also, KWTV even as late as YESTERDAY EVENING was promoting large hail and damaging winds across Oklahoma overnight and to "be weather aware." They finally started laying off late in the evening, but only because nothing was developing.

This current group of meteorologists now simply roll footage of actual model runs. Gone are the days of them sitting at their desks, ingesting all the data, and putting it all together using their guts and instincts into their own forecasts. I noticed it several years ago when Morgan actually sad the "HER" model and documented the HRRR at the top of the screen. I was floored. Now everyone is doing it, including coveted mets at KWTV. This way they can come back and blame the computers for the bad forecast. Anybody can stand up there and run a model and tell us about it.

I know he's controversial here because he's called out the local weather media, but Aaron Tuttle, if you go back and look at his forecast the day after the locals forecasted gloom and doom, he actually stopped everything and said hey you can also read things in the models that will keep an outbreak from happening so don't get caught up in the drama.

Right yet again.

Morgan has history, but he never called for an outbreak yesterday. Of course, he is patting himself on the back for it, not much different from what Tuttle is doing who also has history. They are all selling products so they will take a risk on a bet if it means differentiating themselves from the competition.

I'll go with bust just for the simple fact that even on Saturday they had enhanced risk area for Western Oklahoma and by than it was pretty obvious we were going to have a strong strong cap. Even Sunday I think they were Enhanced. I think it wasn't until Monday morning did they start to back off and even than no way that cap was breaking.

Of course Morgan had to brag https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1780243858116231669. Would anyone like to tell him it was more the Cap holding than the timing of the event. If it wasn't for the Cap we would have big storms overnight.

NWS is also to blame. Still showing 80% chance of thunderstorms and enhanced risk of severe weather yesterday. I'll say the HRRR never bought into many storms developing south into OK but still showed some elevated storms which didn't materialize at all.

On to the next one...rain/thunderstorm chances return Thursday into Saturday across the state. Southern OK looks to have the best chances for higher totals through the weekend but will be dependent on storm track.

I don’t know about the rest of you all but

I’m sick and tired of this dang wind!!!! This has been the worst spring in quite a few years for my allergies.

I don’t know about the rest of you all but

I’m sick and tired of this dang wind!!!! This has been the worst spring in quite a few years for my allergies.

:yeahthat:

^ Me too!

The wind is like this every April in OKC. Don’t worry, it’ll calm down just in time for the humidity to kick in and make us wish that June through August were our windy months lol.

Here we go already with the space between May 1st and May 15th being very active. We better start a May discussion group soon. SMH People will never learn will they.