Too soon to hype Saturday April 6? It's already started by the way. JS

Yes.

Tornado sirens sounded in Stillwater, apparently for the tornado warning northwest of there.

The Book of Mormon musical got delayed by 35 minutes at McKnight Center, OSU. Stillwater area got around an inch or a little better of rain.

So while I realize we did have apparently four confirmed tornadoes, I don't think this event unfolded anywhere near to the degree that was projected. To what might we assign this in a "forensic analysis?" Not enough forcing? Not enough heat? Did the Texas storms cut off some of the presumed inflow?

My daughter works in Norman but lives in Moore, and I felt more than a little silly after the fact cautioning her about the NWS forecasting possible big hailstorms in central OK just about the time she would head home, especially ehen absolutely nothing happened.

With such a low number of severe hail reports, I would say that was a busted forecast for sure. I think the early precipitation + lack of solar heating is likely a big factor.

The day before forecast was closer to the actual than the morning of forecast. I guess its one of those cases where forecasters thought the heat would arrive 'just in time'. Seems to be happening a lot more in recent years.

Too soon to hype Saturday April 6? It's already started by the way. JS
Okay maybe not too soon since the storm prediction center already has a slight risk for all of the area for Saturday. Honestly Saturday is looking really good the big if once again though is moisture. Dew points might struggle to get into the upper 50s

Too soon to hype Saturday April 6? It's already started by the way. JS

Looking over the last several runs of GFS and GEM, Tuesday April 9 is looking potentially interesting as well, but SPC says there's still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of boundaries and the magnitude of instability. Worth keeping an eye on to see how things evolve as we get closer though.

Very good rain NW OKC - my regular gauge shows around 1.3 and my weather station shows 1.1.

Will need to watch how Saturday develops closely throughout the week. Looks like a similar set up. Strong upper level southwesterly jet with a low coming in and dry line set up. The timing and position of that low will be what we need to watch along with moisture levels. GFS showing dew points around 60, but that moisture is piped in from the gulf. I would not be surprised if the models get more bullish on moisture later in the week.

Okay maybe not too soon since the storm prediction center already has a slight risk for all of the area for Saturday. Honestly Saturday is looking really good the big if once again though is moisture. Dew points might struggle to get into the upper 50s



May be a problem if sun comes out... (more so than yesterday...probably what kept a lid on things?)

Very good rain NW OKC - my regular gauge shows around 1.3 and my weather station shows 1.1.

Just enough rain to water my new tree but not enough to drown it...and not quite cold enough to kill it,.,,,,,(I hope)

Tuesday evening and Saturday is looking MEH. However the last event looked great so Saturday will probably end up being a huge outbreak at this point.

I am interested in next Tuesday but wondering if it will ultimately be more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat. Need something to take my mind off of how poorly my predictions on yesterday’s event ended up being, lol.

I am interested in next Tuesday but wondering if it will ultimately be more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat. Need something to take my mind off of how poorly my predictions on yesterday’s event ended up being, lol.

Yeah yesterday was strange. I wonder if anybody has done a look back to see what did or what didn’t happen that caused the bust for the high end severe weather predictions for yesterday?

Yeah yesterday was strange. I wonder if anybody has done a look back to see what did or what didn’t happen that caused the bust for the high end severe weather predictions for yesterday?

Forcing came in later than expected, cap held longer than expected, Dry line never really set up North too south, Cloud cover lasted all day. When the forcing did come in the front was already through so storms were elevated. A lot went wrong.

OKC's [probably] last morning low temps in the 30s will be tomorrow, Thursday. Winds will gradually flip to be out of the south Thursday night and things will be howling by Saturday morning. Extreme fire danger will be present across all of W OK.

As others have discussed, SPC has outlined 15% probability of severe storms for Saturday afternoon.

I am interested in next Tuesday but wondering if it will ultimately be more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat. Need something to take my mind off of how poorly my predictions on yesterday’s event ended up being, lol.

As is typical with these types of low pressure systems coming in from the west there will be a clear cutoff between very little and heavy rainfall. The SW Kansas/Panhandle donut and another pronounced dry slot in SW Oklahoma. You can see the same thing in Colorado where upslope flow can produce significant snow in some areas and other areas with downslope flow will get nothing. All will depend on the exact position of the low and where moisture can be pulled in. Some areas can pick up 2-3" easily.

GFS forecasted rainfall through Wednesday next week
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024040306/gfs_apcpn_scus_32.png

Saturday not looking good at all for severe wieather. Very small window of instability. Hwy 81 east maybe as far east of 35. Next Monday Tuesday don't look good either for storms. Hopefully get more rain. We can always use more rain.

Yeah not a good severe weather pattern for the next couple of weeks. There’s a low moving in around the 14th, but there isn’t a lot of energy from the upper jet and it seems like a poor dry line set up. Probably just a big rain maker.

Edit - The last few hours of the GFS shows the possibility of a decent severe weather day. However, this typically happens when projecting that far out. I’m sure that will completely disappear as we get closer.

Yeah not a good severe weather pattern for the next couple of weeks. There’s a low moving in around the 14th, but there isn’t a lot of energy from the upper jet and it seems like a poor dry line set up. Probably just a big rain maker.

Edit - The last few hours of the GFS shows the possibility of a decent severe weather day. However, this typically happens when projecting that far out. I’m sure that will completely disappear as we get closer.

It's a real decent day if we had good moisture. I guess still a chance if the moisture can come in a bit early. Strong trough, strong jet, good low level winds. Looks great. Wouldn't surprise me if Kansas wasn't a slight risk tomorrow.

SPC has downgraded Saturday's risk to a 5% or less chance of severe weather, and moved the location mostly E of I-35.

OKC will still get blasted by strong south winds, though. Western OK will be a dust and smoke storm.

The HRRR and Nam st is trying to fire storms just east of i-35 after about 6pm. Really depends on moisture. A lot of the other ingredients are there so if moisture can return and storm maybe slows down it could get a little rowdy but as of now (Thursday night) it's still kind of MEH. SPC might add the slight risk back. Fire danger in western Oklahoma might be a real bid problem.

Storm risk is increasing for the OKC Metro for today as of 1pm. Storms might fire just west now of OKC it's going to be close. Hail and wind low tornado but not zero.

Looks like some smallish initiation occurring in west OK. Just small showers for now.

Decent cells coming up. May see a Watch here before 5pm.

Decent cells coming up. May see a Watch here before 5pm.

I just guaranteed.no rain for OKC. Just fertilized my yard LOLOL

The towering to the west was quick.

These storms could go severe once the get east of I-35. Stay alert. Wind and Hail.

Rainy week on tap targeting southern/eastern OK Monday-Wednesday.

GFS totals through Friday -EURO keeps most of heavy rain in Texas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024040712/gfs_apcpn_scus_22.png

Big storms possible for far SW Oklahoma/red river for Monday evening. Enhanced risk down there for large hail

This week's storm system is really going to be straddling the Red River, C OK impacts still look possible, but the big time rainfall will be across SW and S OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2024040812/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_59.png

Typical for OKC. We need to stockpile water in our reservoirs, since we get nothing in the summer. And apparently in the spring.

Let me start by saying WAY WAY WAY EARLY but keep an eye on the April 15th time frame. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC puts out a risk area either tomorrow or Wednesday for Monday April 15th. Just a general area but something to keep an eye on.

Typical for OKC. We need to stockpile water in our reservoirs, since we get nothing in the summer. And apparently in the spring.

Didn’t it rain 2 days ago?

Didn’t it rain 2 days ago?

down poured .. and is going to again tomorrow ..

and a big 0.00% of central Oklahoma is even abnormally dry much less in drought ..

I noticed that Lake Hefner is already almost overflowing.

The highest I've seen it in a long time.

down poured .. and is going to again tomorrow ..

and a big 0.00% of central Oklahoma is even abnormally dry much less in drought ..

Looking decent across most of the state and certainly much better than last year at this time. This is the time of year though when you ideally want to see a surplus going into June.
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delcalendaryear_rain.current.png?cache_bust=171259 3895610

down poured .. and is going to again tomorrow ..

and a big 0.00% of central Oklahoma is even abnormally dry much less in drought ..

Tell that to the areas of my southeast OKC neighborhood where the ground is literally canyoning. Maybe the lakes are ok, but given how finicky Oklahoma weather can be, you never know when we might go weeks without rain.

Tell that to the areas of my southeast OKC neighborhood where the ground is literally canyoning. Maybe the lakes are ok, but given how finicky Oklahoma weather can be, you never know when we might go weeks without rain.

That's just the nature of nature...

Tell that to the areas of my southeast OKC neighborhood where the ground is literally canyoning. Maybe the lakes are ok, but given how finicky Oklahoma weather can be, you never know when we might go weeks without rain.

lol the drought monitor is not about lake levels ..

Tell that to the areas of my southeast OKC neighborhood where the ground is literally canyoning. Maybe the lakes are ok, but given how finicky Oklahoma weather can be, you never know when we might go weeks without rain.

Are you sure it’s not just a pile of dirt that dried out? Or maybe you moved to the only neighborhood east of Weatherford to be in a perpetual drought lol.

SPC has outlined upcoming Monday with 15% probability of severe weather for C and W OK. This is all the way out on day 7 - which is a rare occurrence.

SPC has outlined upcoming Monday with 15% probability of severe weather for C and W OK. This is all the way out on day 7 - which is a rare occurrence.

CLASSIC SET UP LIKE WOW. Now Like I said yesterday when I mention it, this will change but as of right now CLASSIC SET UP. Haven't looked at Tuesday yet I think it moves into Eastern Oklahoma but once again this will change. Bottom line keep checking back.

OH just looked at Tuesday yeah there be a risk area central/eastern Oklahoma for Tuesday also. Classic set up THAT WILL CHANGE

GFS indicating the back half of April could be busy with some spicy severe weather days ranging from central Oklahoma and west.

The GOOFUS model. :wink:

Does it look like Moore will get any measurable rain before 7PM today?

Does it look like Moore will get any measurable rain before 7PM today?

On and off rain the next two days.

A small cluster of severe storms is swinging up from the SW along I-44. Looks like they will hold together to at least give OKC some winds and rain.

Well the Storm prediction center did not put in a risk area yet for Tuesday which now looks like it may be more Arkansas however they went enhanced risk six days out for Central Western Oklahoma. This is a CLASSIC SETUP. Location will change some but make sure your storm shelter is clean this weekend which it should be this time of year anyway

https://twitter.com/weathertrackus/status/1777986808367751263?t=kmlm3GkXeR9tp39tqrhuSw&s=19

Well the Storm prediction center did not put in a risk area yet for Tuesday which now looks like it may be more Arkansas however they went enhanced risk six days out for Central Western Oklahoma. This is a CLASSIC SETUP. Location will change some but make sure your storm shelter is clean this weekend which it should be this time of year anyway

https://twitter.com/weathertrackus/status/1777986808367751263?t=kmlm3GkXeR9tp39tqrhuSw&s=19

We need more hyping to scare it off. Activate the Morgan! Lol

We need more hyping to scare it off. Activate the Morgan! Lol

Oh I'm sure he will get going soon. I'm sure they all will. Technically it's not enhanced this far out but 30% chance which is high. However the hype train as I call it will be in full effect cause dare I say it Thursday is looking really good also. Two chances next week it's possible. I will say though this set up might warrant the hype train people need to be aware but just keep checking back IT'S GOING TO CHANGE.

Oh I'm sure he will get going soon. I'm sure they all will. Technically it's not enhanced this far out but 30% chance which is high. However the hype train as I call it will be in full effect cause dare I say it Thursday is looking really good also. Two chances next week it's possible. I will say though this set up might warrant the hype train people need to be aware but just keep checking back IT'S GOING TO CHANGE.

Overall, things seem more favorable for severe weather this time in April than it did last year or year prior. Luckily, nothing actually verified yet here in Oklahoma. The past few years have been quiet until the end of May.

https://www.weather.gov/oun/ Unlike the past couple systems the moisture will be there this time around.

30% Risk outline on the day 6 outlook is extremely rare. Not to say it guarantees a big day (by definition it only says confidence in Slight or Enhanced Risk weather occurring). But history says it is not used lightly.

For some perspective, the last time a Day 6 had 30% probabilities, it went on to be the only High Risk day last year and resulted in a large-scale tornado outbreak.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230331_rpts_filtered.gif

30% Risk outline on the day 6 outlook is extremely rare. Not to say it guarantees a big day (by definition it only says confidence in Slight or Enhanced Risk weather occurring). But history says it is not used lightly.

For some perspective, the last time a Day 6 had 30% probabilities, it went on to be the only High Risk day last year and resulted in a large-scale tornado outbreak.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230331_rpts_filtered.gif

Thanks for that info. I figured it was very rare. Even a day 4 30% is pretty rare I think but I figured at day 6 it probably was extremely rare.

18756 Here is how that went down.

The 30% region was expanded west and east by SPC this morning. There is uncertainty on where exactly dryline will be on Monday. Hopefully. It doesn't setup in west central Oklahoma as that tends to maximize the severe potential for the metro area.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1778352099828633639

The 30% region was expanded west and east by SPC this morning. There is uncertainty on where exactly dryline will be on Monday. Hopefully. It doesn't setup in west central Oklahoma as that tends to maximize the severe potential for the metro area.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1778352099828633639

I don’t know how much uncertainty there is at this point. The models have been very consistent with the placement of the dry line over the past 6 runs. I think they’re getting more comfortable with the orientation and placement of the dry line. Granted, we’re still 5 days out. However, things have been awfully consistent so far, and that graphic you posted has okc square in the middle of this. I’m getting vibes of a big big day coming up.

That being said, the models are hinting at a giant line of storms, and the shear, while present, doesn’t seem super aligned with what I would expect would be indicative of PDS tornado development. Also, the cap isn’t super strong. We have seen morning storms fire on days like this and completely wipe the energy from the atmosphere for the afternoon storms. There’s lots to evaluate still, but at a minimum, I’m feeling like this could be a really bad day for hail.

I don’t know how much uncertainty there is at this point. The models have been very consistent with the placement of the dry line over the past 6 runs. I think they’re getting more comfortable with the orientation and placement of the dry line. Granted, we’re still 5 days out. However, things have been awfully consistent so far, and that graphic you posted has okc square in the middle of this. I’m getting vibes of a big big day coming up.

That being said, the models are hinting at a giant line of storms, and the shear, while present, doesn’t seem super aligned with what I would expect would be indicative of PDS tornado development. Also, the cap isn’t super strong. We have seen morning storms fire on days like this and completely wipe the energy from the atmosphere for the afternoon storms. There’s lots to evaluate still, but at a minimum, I’m feeling like this could be a really bad day for hail.

There have been a couple runs from the Euro that keeps the dryline in the Texas Panhandle but your right most part they are consistent. The placement of the dryline will be the key.

Let's get through Monday before we start talking about Thursday. Kind of what the SPC is doing. In the wake of this lead system, the shortwave trough digging into
the Pacific Northwest may carve out a broad, positive-tilt trough in
the West by mid-week. Consensus of guidance suggests that rich
low-level moisture over the southern Great Plains will not be
scoured by the lead wave. This may yield daily bouts of severe
thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Great Plains
late in the period and beyond. Predictability for individual day
highlights is too low to warrant 15 percent probabilities yet.