Comin' in hot...

As this rain/sleet batch moves out, we will have south winds continue to bring in warmer air. Should be upper 60s in OKC tomorrow with increasing winds - which means back into the 70s and 80s over the weekend. Another front comes in Monday, but not very strong. Should knock highs down into the 60s for next week.

Spring has arrived.

Almost March and OKC almost got snow.

Almost March and OKC almost got snow.

we had a brief period of giant snow flakes yesterday afternoon just west of down town ..

we had a brief period of giant snow flakes yesterday afternoon just west of down town ..

Yeah, drove through it at 36th/May-ish about 4:15.

Is this lower cloud deck going to burn off later this morning?

Looking at the last few model runs have again pushed most of the upcoming rainfall this week east toward Arkansas. This is something we’ve seen the past couple springs that I thought was due to our drought but wouldn’t be the case this year. Hopefully we can get a little rain from one of these systems to ease the fire danger across the state.

Looking at the last few model runs have again pushed most of the upcoming rainfall this week east toward Arkansas. This is something we’ve seen the past couple springs that I thought was due to our drought but wouldn’t be the case this year. Hopefully we can get a little rain from one of these systems to ease the fire danger across the state.

Like usual.

GFS forecasted rainfall through the weekend. Most of the rain will be Thursday into Friday morning. Cooler weekend on tap with highs in 50's. Potentially heavier rains the following week.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024030406/gfs_apcpn_scus_27.png

Surprising how bad the wildfires were in the Texas panhandle and NW Oklahoma, considering there is no serious drought going on there. But tends to be dry out there for time of year.

Surprising how bad the wildfires were in the Texas panhandle and NW Oklahoma, considering there is no serious drought going on there. But tends to be dry out there for time of year.

The unusually wet late summer and fall in that area caused the prairie grasses to be much higher and thicker than normal. That coupled with the recent dry weather in February plus high winds and low humidities created the fire situation we saw last week.

Wow, didn't know the 2012 Glencoe fire destroyed 53 homes. Fortunately, “We don’t have a Glencoe situation on our hands,” said Jeff Kuhn, emergency management director for Payne County, “but some of the conditions are there.”

https://www.stwnewspress.com/news/no-burn-ban-in-effect-but-payne-county-recommends-no-fires-at-this-time/article_0457f388-da67-11ee-8f2a-eb35551135c0.html#tncms-source=article-nav-next

After a few beautiful weather days, we are going back to some action.

SPC going with Slight Risk across roughly all of W OK for severe storms developing Thursday evening. Right now it is unlikely the storms stay severe if/when they move into C OK. We could see some low clouds hang around C OK after some quick morning showers.

This storm system is non-traditional in the sense that the low is actually tracking (while weakening) from N to S rather than traditional W-E. So for OKC, I would forecast best rain chances for early Thursday, then a break before potentially getting remnants from any storms out west Thursday night. Then finally we would be getting wrap-around on Friday as the system falls apart and jumps east. Early Friday is the best shot for OKC to see meaningful rain.


Friday after the wind shift, temps will plummet into the 30s for the evening - perhaps a few snowflakes with any lingering precipitation. Saturday will be highs in 50s with strong N winds. Sunday looks great.

Morning update: SPC has re-mapped the risk to include OKC and all points to the NW. Primary threats will be hail and damaging winds if storms can hold together after dark and make it to C OK.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024030712/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_14.png

Cloud deck did not stick around C OK, so we are warming up significantly. SPC has increased coverage of Slight Risk area and added increased damaging wind potential for C OK.

Storms will likely form into a line/cluster after moving out of W OK and push E into OKC area. Roughly around midnight for C OK impacts.

HRRR showing the line moving through OKC between 10-11 and Tulsa between 11-12 tonight
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024030717/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_12.png

SVR Watch is out for all of W and C OK. Runs to 10pm.

Rogue severe cell out ahead of the main line has come up between Lawton and Anadarko, hail threat will need to be monitored if it comes toward OKC since it is currently isolated.

EDIT: this storm is now dead.

Okc going to get missed by these storms? Seem to want to stay north of the metro.

north edmond had a good amount of rain and some small hail ..

Another round of rain and imbedded t-storms expected this afternoon across central OK moving east this evening.

HRRR 2 pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024030813/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7.png

Cool and windy weekend then quiet weather most of next week until the next storm system arrives Thursday 3/14

Rain chances return Thursday into Friday. SE OK favored for higher totals

GFS rainfall through Sunday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024031018/gfs_apcpn_scus_29.png

OKC metro is on the western edge of the Marginal Risk (1 our of 5) for severe storms this afternoon - mostly a wind and hail threat, but tornado threat is non-zero as well.

Tomorrow (Thursday the 14th), OKC metro is just on the outside of the western edge of marginal risk. The Slight Risk (2 out 5) area covers most of eastern Oklahoma, with the SE corner of OK being in Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5)... The Enhanced Risk area has significant hail potential, on top of all other modes.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Ah yes, OKC being just outside of much needed rain. 2023 all over again.

I love all the coverage we get on here, and appreciate all the information, and those who gather it, greatly. I just wish more of it actually ended up involving OKC.

Ah yes, OKC being just outside of much needed rain. 2023 all over again.

I love all the coverage we get on here, and appreciate all the information, and those who gather it, greatly. I just wish more of it actually ended up involving OKC.

Is OKC even in a drought?

Is OKC even in a drought?

Not technically, but on extremely short windows - the ground here dries out insanely fast with warmer temps + high winds. This is why high fire danger can be present just days after a rainfall here.

Storms not looking likely here in C OK, however, technically can't be ruled out until the dryline has passed.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2024031312/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_60.png

Is OKC even in a drought?

data from 5 March (released 7 March)

none of central Oklahoma is even abnormally dry .. much less in a drought ..

as far as the state only 3.85 % in a drought and only .19 in severe drought (nothing worse)

1 year ago 60% of the state was in drought 53% severe or worse 36% Extreme and 9% Exceptional Drought

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

Ah yes, OKC being just outside of much needed rain. 2023 all over again.

I love all the coverage we get on here, and appreciate all the information, and those who gather it, greatly. I just wish more of it actually ended up involving OKC.

Man, take a deep breath. It’s going to be alright. We’ve had an amazingly wet winter, so we’re not even close to hurting for water. The lakes are full in the region, the ground is moist, and things are greening up nicely.

Also, it shouldn’t be the least bit surprising that the SE part of the state gets the most rain. It’s the wettest part of the state. Naturally, okc is on the boundary of dry prairie and wet greenlands. We’re going to miss out on storms more often than the SE.

Ah yes, OKC being just outside of much needed rain. 2023 all over again.

I love all the coverage we get on here, and appreciate all the information, and those who gather it, greatly. I just wish more of it actually ended up involving OKC.

Remember this can, and will, change but the models have been consistent in indicating a significant pattern change toward the end of March that would bring more rainfall to the S Plains. GFS rainfall totals through the end of March:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024031312/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

LOL, channel 4 news starts off sensationalizing the weather by showing storms on radar in the Tulsa viewing area.

Could be a very bad day for Eastern Oklahoma. Anything Shawnee east.

Pretty strong parameters on that TOR watch. Many areas of rotation in the current line.

Couple rain chances through the weekend hopefully this verifies for western OK
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024031818/gfs_apcpn_scus_25.png

IF BIG IF HUGE IF on a Tuesday Night. But if we can get moisture return on Sunday Sunday night could get interesting for severe storms

Closed off low in AZ is now moving slowly east towards OK.

Here is latest HRRR for the next few days. As you can see, rain/storm chances will be very random. Thursday morning is probably OKC's best shot.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2024032012/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_60.png

Slight Risk for Sunday for Western Oklahoma. Big concern will probably be a squall line with heavy rain gusty winds possible small hail.

There is some incredible lightening in far NW OKC. Very impressive!! Sounds like spring!

It's only Thursday but I see you Sunday I see you trying to bring in more moisture. A strong low pressure system. Dryline trying to set up in Western Oklahoma I see you Sunday.

It's only Thursday but I see you Sunday I see you trying to bring in more moisture. A strong low pressure system. Dryline trying to set up in Western Oklahoma I see you Sunday.

Are you well?

Are you well?

I'm ok thanks for asking :). I'm actually shocked the OKC TV METS haven't jumped on a hype train yet. News 9 this morning was calling it a moderate risk so maybe they have and I just missed it on other channels but Sunday could be a big day.

We will find out more tomorrow with the day 3 from SPC. But I think they have it right for now. W OK in a narrow corridor where it may reach close to 80F, everything E of that could be relatively cool on the temperature side. Any storms surviving off the dryline will be heading into an environment that is poor for sustainability.

As always, things will change - but I think C OK is not under the gun at this time.

SPC outlining Slight Risk for Sunday for essentially all of W and C OK. Noting basically what I posted last night above. W OK dryline initial threat for supercells, quickly moving to a cluster/line of storms that weakens as it pushes east.

Forecast right now is for C OK to be around 68F with dewpoints in the low 50s. If these two parameters increase, the threat for severe storms will follow.

Friday Morning and it's battle of the computer models. Some say moisture is lacking some say it's better. We probably only need to get into the mid 50s cause of the forcing. Strong enough system that can get it done with dewpoints 56 and up. Stay tuned. Channel 5 is up to a 4 on the tornado index.

Friday Morning and it's battle of the computer models. Some say moisture is lacking some say it's better. We probably only need to get into the mid 50s cause of the forcing. Strong enough system that can get it done with dewpoints 56 and up. Stay tuned. Channel 5 is up to a 4 on the tornado index.

There is very little about Sunday that looks interesting atm. Dewpoints barely in the 60’s. High temps barely hit 70? Doesn’t really check the boxes for me. Probably should cool it down a notch.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1771248134187782361?t=VlhVXQNYd-SfHRh0Hiobwg&s=19.

There is very little about Sunday that looks interesting atm. Dewpoints barely in the 60’s. High temps barely hit 70? Doesn’t really check the boxes for me. Probably should cool it down a notch.

Normally I would agree with you on dew points but mid 50s will get it done with this strong of forcing and jet stream. At least for a decent squall line moving through Central Oklahoma.

Saturday morning update : By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to
strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central
KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z
Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may
encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid
50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will
also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat
for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given
the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could
still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to
become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern
KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty
winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into
small bowing line segments

HRRR indicating the cap holds tomorrow. It’s just too cool out there. Will be interesting to watch how warm it gets.

Also doesn’t help that it looks like the morning rain wipes out much of the instability and likely keeping it cooler for longer in the day with cloud cover.

Looking like a pretty typical conditional day for springtime around here. If we get prolonged morning showers with cloud cover, we probably won’t see anything in the afternoon. If we see good clearing by lunch and temps warm into the upper 60’s, it’s possible a few storms could break the cap.

I think with this event it‘s important to note that the instability axis is going to be very narrow; therefore, there probably won’t be any long-lived supercells. It’s well within the realm of possibility that the severe weather potential is maximized in a 50-100 mile radius just west of the Metro. Haven’t been following this one super closely but it’s something that has stuck out to me.

Couple of the computer models are spitting out just a few storms but big storms. Southwest Oklahoma might be coming into play now?

Couple of the computer models are spitting out just a few storms but big storms. Southwest Oklahoma might be coming into play now?

I’m going to be in El Reno from about 2pm to 5pm. Are there any hail concerns for my car during this time period?

All I know is the wind is ridiculous out of the south and it's still *danged* chilly, with thick cloud cover, in the mid-50's here in SW OKC. If that keeps up, I have a hard time seeing how that contributes to big storms. Think it goes back to that narrow band of instability that's been discussed.

All I know is the wind is ridiculous out of the south and it's still *danged* chilly, with thick cloud cover, in the mid-50's here in SW OKC. If that keeps up, I have a hard time seeing how that contributes to big storms. Think it goes back to that narrow band of instability that's been discussed.

Yep typical early spring event - strong upper level dynamics but not enough heat and moisture

I’m going to be in El Reno from about 2pm to 5pm. Are there any hail concerns for my car during this time period?

Your probably good.

Yep typical early spring event - strong upper level dynamics but not enough heat and moisture

Moisture is probably good enough. In fact it's a little higher than expected. Won't take much Sun or heating to break the cap today. So a bit of sun is going to get it done. Nw Oklahoma as about 11:30 looks to be in the worse zone. SW and Metro is more conditional. IF a storm can form it's still going to be Potent at least for a little bit. Like SEMI weather said the zone isn't very big.

And as soon as I got done typing NWS came out with an Enhanced Risk for Western Northwestern Oklahoma

Your probably good.

Good deal, thanks!

https://x.com/ounwcm/status/1771959990871261215?s=20 Don't let the it's cold fool you today. Yes it's keeping this from being a big day but won't keep it from producing a couple of storms.