Beautiful weather continues heading toward the weekend, rain chances then come in Friday night. Should be out of here by Saturday lunch, though.

Looking ahead to next week, mild weather again with only about a 10 degree cool off from this week's highs.


Friday night rain:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024013118/namconus_apcpn_scus_28.png

I have been complaining but this has been one of the most glorious weeks of weather that I can remember, and I'm not just talking about January.

I call this California weather and today I got a little sunburn!

Looks like we might get a bit of the Pineapple Express. We need as much precipitation as we can get as we enter wildfire season.

I have been complaining but this has been one of the most glorious weeks of weather that I can remember, and I'm not just talking about January.
I call this California weather and today I got a little sunburn!AMEN Brother!!!! This week has rocked! And the longest models don't have anything wintery nasty. Happy camper here!

Looks like we might get a bit of the Pineapple Express. We need as much precipitation as we can get as we enter wildfire season.

Us farmers/ranchers prefer to use the term "controlled burn" for those fires. ;)

Looks like we might get a bit of the Pineapple Express. We need as much precipitation as we can get as we enter wildfire season.

I have been saying this for a while. OKC always gets missed by like, 20 miles, with heavy, sustained rains that would help drastically lessen the upcoming wildfire season.

Looks like we might get a bit of the Pineapple Express. We need as much precipitation as we can get as we enter wildfire season.

I have been saying this for a while. OKC always gets missed by like, 20 miles, with heavy, sustained rains that would help drastically lessen the upcoming wildfire season.

I have been complaining but this has been one of the most glorious weeks of weather that I can remember, and I'm not just talking about January.

I call this California weather and today I got a little sunburn!


70s in OKC with little to no wind - I would never consider moving away from here. Unfortunately this weather scenario is always the rare exceptions.

We are in Oklahoma's Fool's Spring!

Definitely. This is when everyone wants to buy patio furniture and plants for Spring. Then we will get slapped back into 20 degree weather for a week.

Here is the latest on rainfall moving in tonight:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024020212/hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

The arc of thunderstorms currently located over NW Texas should lift NE and move across the Metro between roughly 11 p.m. and 1 a.m. this evening. Storms will be weakening as they approach OKC but there will possibly still be some small hail and gusty winds. The weekend will be fairly cool (relative to the last several days), cloudy, and windy as the upper level low stalls out just to our west. Possibly some wrap-around rain showers tomorrow and Sunday but better chances will be to our north and east. Ridge builds back in next week resulting in a return to sunny skies and temperatures reaching well into the 60's. Possibly another strong system moving through next weekend, details TBD but the pattern would once again appear to favor a thunderstorm threat as opposed to any winter weather.

I have been saying this for a while. OKC always gets missed by like, 20 miles, with heavy, sustained rains that would help drastically lessen the upcoming wildfire season.

I see someone made a new account when the other one got banned lol

Cool start to the week with north winds but Tuesday-Friday should be nice with highs in the 60's. The wind returns Wednesday and especially Thursday. Next chance of rain is Saturday night into Sunday. Right now the storm is trending further south but will watch this week. Another storm system moves in later next week. No ice/snow on the horizon at this time.

Cool start to the week with north winds but Tuesday-Friday should be nice with highs in the 60's. The wind returns Wednesday and especially Thursday. Next chance of rain is Saturday night into Sunday. Right now the storm is trending further south but will watch this week. Another storm system moves in later next week. No ice/snow on the horizon at this time.

I hope there will no ice and snow for the rest of the month until Spring

I hope there will no ice and snow for the rest of the month until Spring

There is still a chance for some wet snow wrapping around the low with the next storm on Super Bowl Sunday - higher likelihood in Kansas and maybe the Panhandle:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024020512/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

Certainly some interesting trends in the forecast models this morning with regards to Sunday’s system.

Certainly some interesting trends in the forecast models this morning with regards to Sunday’s system.

If Mike Morgan said that, I'd laugh it off. You saying it, however...

If Mike Morgan said that, I'd laugh it off. You saying it, however...

Well, I’m also not saying that it’s going to be a repeat of the 2009 Christmas Eve Blizzard like Mike is LOL. But it certainly seems like the models are trending towards a stronger, more amplified solution, which would likely allow for more cold air to be pulled in, possibly leading to a changeover to snow and some light-to-moderate accumulations in OKC (higher impacts in NW Oklahoma/SW Kansas). Still four days away which means plenty of time for things to continue to flip-flop. But it’s at least on my radar, and certainly my initial inclination last Friday that it would be more of a thunderstorm threat than a winter weather threat will turn out to be incorrect.

Another thing I’ll add is, we at least won’t have several days of cold weather before this system which is what made the January 22nd ice storm such a mess on the roads. Could easily see an outcome where we get enough snow to cover grassy surfaces but little impact to road conditions.

^Agreed. We will likely have a classic 'it looks like rain' until 24 hours before the storm, when cold air comes in stronger and further than models predicted. But also since I just typed this out, it won't happen.


Here is some doomsday graphics for NW OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024020718/gfs_T2m_scus_17.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024020718/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png

as always thank you both

^Agreed. We will likely have a classic 'it looks like rain' until 24 hours before the storm, when cold air comes in stronger and further than models predicted. But also since I just typed this out, it won't happen.


Here is some doomsday graphics for NW OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024020718/gfs_T2m_scus_17.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024020718/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png

That second graphic REALLY hates Woodward, in particular.

I love Oklahoma. They Hype Train is in full effect. Storm isn't even onshore, it's still 4 days away, and we are posting snowfall total maps already. LOVE IT. ALL-ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN. Oh and if they are wrong we will get the we said it could change. :)

I love Oklahoma. They Hype Train is in full effect. Storm isn't even onshore, it's still 4 days away, and we are posting snowfall total maps already. LOVE IT. ALL-ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN. Oh and if they are wrong we will get the we said it could change. :)

On the contrary, those of us with common sense know that it can (and will probably) change and don't always take the hype at face value, so what does it matter? It's better to be weather aware just in case.

On the contrary, those of us with common sense know that it can (and will probably) change and don't always take the hype at face value, so what does it matter? It's better to be weather aware just in case.


Saying there can be a snow storm on Sunday is fine. Posting snow fall totals 4 days out only happens in Oklahoma. It's kind of stupid. No other tv market hypes like OKC does. Schools will start closing for Monday when there might be no reason too. I'm sure there are people that are cancelling plans already for Sunday. So it does matter. I have seen it happen before.

And we all know it's going to change and change a lot. So why either bother 4 days out to make snowfall maps?

https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1755361662796960123?s=20 This really should be the only map that matters right now. The rest is click bait tv ratings.

Saying there can be a snow storm on Sunday is fine. Posting snow fall totals 4 days out only happens in Oklahoma. It's kind of stupid. No other tv market hypes like OKC does. Schools will start closing for Monday when there might be no reason too. I'm sure there are people that are cancelling plans already for Sunday. So it does matter. I have seen it happen before.

Yep, nowhere else in the country do they estimate rain or snow totals 4 days in advance...I know this to be 100% false because they literally JUST did this in Sacramento this past week about snow near Tahoe. Forecasting 5 days out that there would be 36' of snow or more.

OKC hypes up weather more because we have, on average, some of the most extreme weather in America. Sure, it goes overboard. But saying it only happens here is blatantly asinine and categorically and undeniably false.

Yep, nowhere else in the country do they estimate rain or snow totals 4 days in advance...I know this to be 100% false because they literally JUST did this in Sacramento this past week about snow near Tahoe. Forecasting 5 days out that there would be 36' of snow or more.

OKC hypes up weather more because we have, on average, some of the most extreme weather in America. Sure, it goes overboard. But saying it only happens here is blatantly asinine and categorically and undeniably false.

Ok I'll give you that much but much easier to forecast snow in places that get snow like the mountains than in central Oklahoma. One of the tv Mets even went as far as saying the zone from rain changing to snow looks to be between 2 and 3 on Sunday. Really? We can get that detailed already. PLEASE GIVE ME A BREAK

Yep, nowhere else in the country do they estimate rain or snow totals 4 days in advance...I know this to be 100% false because they literally JUST did this in Sacramento this past week about snow near Tahoe. Forecasting 5 days out that there would be 36' of snow or more.

OKC hypes up weather more because we have, on average, some of the most extreme weather in America. Sure, it goes overboard. But saying it only happens here is blatantly asinine and categorically and undeniably false.

Ok I'll give you that much but much easier to forecast snow in places that get snow like the mountains and says it will get over 3 feet of snow than in central Oklahoma and call for 2-4 inches. TOALLY DIFFERENT. One of the tv Mets even went as far as saying the zone from rain changing to snow looks to be between 2 and 3 on Sunday. Really? We can get that detailed already. PLEASE GIVE ME A BREAK

I got one. There will be Lake Effect snow in December in Buffalo. :)

Rain/snow line is going to be really close to the Metro. Slight track changes will make a huge difference. NWS hinting at 2-4 for parts of Oklahoma but they really won't give totals until 48 hours which I wish our media would do also but whatever.

News9 showed 2-4" for the metro, as a conservative snowfall forecast, this morning on their 5am telecast.

A hybrid of the main models places a swath of over a foot of snow in some areas. The bullseye consensus is currently across NW OK. However, the temperature gradient could be extremely sharp to the SE and be the difference between a cold rain at 36F or heavy snow banding inside the low's deformation zone.

Yep, nowhere else in the country do they estimate rain or snow totals 4 days in advance...I know this to be 100% false because they literally JUST did this in Sacramento this past week about snow near Tahoe. Forecasting 5 days out that there would be 36' of snow or more.

OKC hypes up weather more because we have, on average, some of the most extreme weather in America. Sure, it goes overboard. But saying it only happens here is blatantly asinine and categorically and undeniably false.

Just wondering if that is a typo, and you meant 36 inches or was the forecast really 36 feet?!

Just wondering if that is a typo, and you meant 36 inches or was the forecast really 36 feet?!

I did. 3 feel of snow. My bad.

Forecasting 5 days out that there would be 36' of snow or more.

.
When did Aaron Tuttle move to Sacramento?

I'm guessing a lot of snow but with the temps minimal sticking?

Western Oklahoma Is going to get dumped. Might be NW Oklahoma. There will be some heavy totals in the state. Metro still way too many questions to give totals. When does it change to snow? How long does it stay a rain snow mixed? Does it stay all rain? How much of the dry slot works in? If it is snow how much melts cause some of it will? To the post above the road should stay fine all day Sunday maybe after it gets dark or Monday morning might there be problems.

When did Aaron Tuttle move to Sacramento?

:congrats:

Western Oklahoma Is going to get dumped. Might be NW Oklahoma. There will be some heavy totals in the state. Metro still way too many questions to give totals. When does it change to snow? How long does it stay a rain snow mixed? Does it stay all rain? How much of the dry slot works in? If it is snow how much melts cause some of it will? To the post above the road should stay fine all day Sunday maybe after it gets dark or Monday morning might there be problems.

I think you’re blowing this out of proportion. It’s been really warm, and the forecast for that weather event is barely touching mid-30’s on the low side. It might snow, but I’m willing to bet it’s extremely low accumulations.

I would give Northwest and West-Central Oklahoma a fairly good shot at 4+” accumulations. Still a highly uncertain forecast for OKC.

I would give Northwest and West-Central Oklahoma a fairly good shot at 4+” accumulations. Still a highly uncertain forecast for OKC.

The models are not handling the barely-freezing temps and relatively warm ground very well. Hence why the CMC model is still showing a FOOT of snow in the OKC metro. I think it will realistically be 1-2" of wet snow on trees and grass with some higher accumulations likely in NW OK
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024020812/gem_asnow_scus_17.png

The models are not handling the barely-freezing temps and relatively warm ground very well. Hence why the CMC model is still showing a FOOT of snow in the OKC metro. I think it will realistically be 1-2" of wet snow on trees and grass with some higher accumulations likely in NW OK
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024020812/gem_asnow_scus_17.png

where can we find ground temp data?

Surely there have been studies done correlating the ground temp to accumulations

where can we find ground temp data?

Surely there have been studies done correlating the ground temp to accumulations

These temps will increase before the snow moves in
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TS05.grad.png?cache_bust=1707429392871

I think snow-to-liquid ratios are also likely going to be noticeably less than 10:1 for this event.

I'm terrible at posting pictures but the 18z GFS is showing an inch or two in central OK. We won't really have a good handle until Saturday afternoon.

I'm terrible at posting pictures but the 18z GFS is showing an inch or two in central OK. We won't really have a good handle until Saturday afternoon.

Sure won't. KOCO has 1-2 News 9 is 2-4 not sure what KFOR has I think 2-4 also but way too early . NWS might put out totals late tomorrow so key an eye out for that.

This morning the forecast models are diving the low to track much further south, which would make this a mostly rain event except for far W OK and into NW TX. Perhaps OKC could get a quick burst of heavy wet snow on the tail-end of the wrap-around. But snow in C OK is looking less likely today.

This morning the forecast models are diving the low to track much further south, which would make this a mostly rain event except for far W OK and into NW TX. Perhaps OKC could get a quick burst of heavy wet snow on the tail-end of the wrap-around. But snow in C OK is looking less likely today.

pretty sure anyone with any common sense could see this coming

Happened to watch News9 this morning. They are all on board for mostly a cold rain with minimal travel impacts. Good news there.

^

Especially with it being Super Bowl Sunday and lots of people going to parties late Sunday afternoon and evening.

I'll be one of them.

Boo

Happened to watch News9 this morning. They are all on board for mostly a cold rain with minimal travel impacts. Good news there.

And this is why you don't post snowfall totals 4 days out in Central Oklahoma. Smh

And this is why you don't post snowfall totals 4 days out in Central Oklahoma. Smh

Don't look at the latest GFS model for next weekend ;)

Honestly this time of year into March is when you can sometimes see wrap-around snow on the backside of these low pressure systems. It can be heavy but never lasts long, and more often than not is just a cold rain with the wet snow staying in CO/KS.

Happened to watch News9 this morning. They are all on board for mostly a cold rain with minimal travel impacts. Good news there.

Called this yesterday. Literally, none of the models were forecasting below freezing temps.

NWS put out 1-2 for the metro. You know cause they won't an just about anyone won't post snowfall totals more than 48 hours before the event. TV does it for click bait let's just keep it real folks. 1-2 might even be pushing it if trends continue.

Still a ton of uncertainty with this system, and it really does look like it will ultimately be a nowcast situation for OKC, as there very well could be a narrow swath of significant snow accumulations wherever the deformation band sets up as the storm slowly moves across the state tomorrow evening. But where that occurs is still anyone's guess. Right now the models would suggest the I-44 corridor to be favored, but there are still approximately 30-42 hours until we'll know for sure, which is more than enough time for things to shift north/south.

Yes models today are coming back north on track a bit. This will be a matter of 1-2 degrees and where that changeover happens. Lose-lose forecast because someone 10 miles away will have cold rain whilst the other has 6” of snow.

Winter Storm Watches out for W and SW OK.

Latest HRRR is dropping 4-6” along I-44. SW OK could see some spots pick up close to a foot.

NWS service going with Winter Weather Advisory for C OK.

NAM and HRRR both increasing snowfall chances along I-44. Any significant accumulation is going to be extremely local/narrow.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2024021018/nam3km_asnow_scus_48.png

Imagine if the TV meteorologists end up being right.

I was just going to say the same thing. You could go from nothing to heavy snow in 30 miles. Does it fall faster than it melts will be the big question. If it does we might get a few inches maybe 4 inches if it doesn't than MEH be not much different than rain.