This is crazy 8:30 Saturday night and we don't know really any more than we did 3 days ago. Some of these computer models are just spitting out some huge totals cause the path is perfect for snow. However where is the cold air? How much cooling do we get from precipitation falling. Is the rate of fall faster than the rate of melting. We still don't know

Called this yesterday. Literally, none of the models were forecasting below freezing temps.

And then we have KFOR saying we are going to get four inches.

This is horrible and my Monday is ruined.

And then we have KFOR saying we are going to get four inches.

This is horrible and my Monday is ruined.

Well. It has changed since that post you quoted.

Bottom line is we'll be getting a nice amount of moisture for early February, which is great for us as wildfire season approaches.

Now it looks like we should start to get heavy, wet snow this afternoon which is already falling in the western part of the state.

That's going to be a major bummer for all the Super Bowl parties as well as the coffers of local bars and restaurants.

Now it looks like we should start to get heavy, wet snow this afternoon which is already falling in the western part of the state.

That's going to be a major bummer for all the Super Bowl parties as well as the coffers of local bars and restaurants.

The snow may not even start until halfway through the game, which means come 9pm or so we'll have a lot of semi-inebriated people taking to increasingly-slick roads to head home. Stay safe out there tonight y'all.

KFOR is just going with "total snowfall" not how much is going to be left after melting. So they have like 8 plus inches on their map which is possible for 'TOTAL" snowfall. NWS is 3-4 for the metro after melting I think Cross our fingers but I don't think the roads get really bad until late late like 10-11pm late.

Bottom line is we'll be getting a nice amount of moisture for early February, which is great for us as wildfire season approaches.

1-2” of “water” (rain/snow) possible over a good chunk of the state with this storm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024021112/gfs_apcpn_scus_8.png

Light sleet in Piedmont at 11:52 AM.

Latest HRRR still giving I-44 corridor and points south some decent accumulation on grass surfaces.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024021118/hrrr_asnow_scus_23.png

Oh NM
How do you add images from the likes of Tropical Tidbits. When I save and upload an image it's blurry.

Stillwater is near the edge of the snow area and may not get any accumulation. Very little rain in Stillwater as of 3:45 pm, not enough to tip the bucket. 42 degrees. A look at the current radar:

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/SOUTHPLAINS_loop.gif

You can see on the air temperature map and visible satellite where the most snowfall occurred.



https://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/subregional/S_Plains/current/S_Plains.02.jpg?cache_bust=1707751024709




https://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image_full8.png

I drove home from Edmond last night just after halftime of the Super Bowl and it was a straight-out blizzard for the entire 25-minute drive.

None of it was sticking on the roads (or so it seemed) but pretty low visibility and when I got to the infamous I-44 curve near Penn Square I made sure no other cars or semis were anywhere near me. I should have probably exited earlier and taken side streets. That stretch is harrowing on a good day.

Well KFOR did somewhat have the total right when the put the snowfall maps out on Wednesday. Location not so much. which I know how to post pictures on here from his tweets on Wednesday and Thursday comparing to the final NWS map

You can see on the air temperature map and visible satellite where the most snowfall occurred.

https://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image_full8.png

Wichita Mountains for the win! I would love to see some pics from down there

Wichita Mountains for the win! I would love to see some pics from down thereGlad they kept it down there!

It looks like the next 2 weeks should be dry, generally warmer than normal, and sunny.

Still plenty of winter to go but thus far, we've been lucky this season.

It looks like the next 2 weeks should be dry, generally warmer than normal, and sunny.

Still plenty of winter to go but thus far, we've been lucky this season.

El Nino years have produced some big March snowstorms in Oklahoma. 2009-10 and 1994-96 all had March snows of 5"+. Statistically though if you make it to the end of February the likelihood goes way down and by mid-March it's full-on spring.

Quick shot of cold air on Friday and (especially) Saturday, but ridging will quickly build back in thereafter with dry and above-normal conditions being the rule for much of the latter half of February. Still thinking we should get one more good shot of cold air and accompanying winter precipitation chances sometime during the first half of March, but it feels pretty safe to say that we have seen the worst of winter at this point, especially since any snow/ice that falls in March tends to melt in a hurry.

Quick shot of cold air on Friday and (especially) Saturday, but ridging will quickly build back in thereafter with dry and above-normal conditions being the rule for much of the latter half of February. Still thinking we should get one more good shot of cold air and accompanying winter precipitation chances sometime during the first half of March, but it feels pretty safe to say that we have seen the worst of winter at this point, especially since any snow/ice that falls in March tends to melt in a hurry.

My hopes have never been higher.

Classic winter-spring transition in OK where weekdays are beautiful and weekends suck.

Classic winter-spring transition in OK where weekdays are beautiful and weekends suck.
True. But at least I can drive the Miata during the week to work.

Good news for spring lovers - other than this Saturday which will be chilly with north winds and highs in the 40's, the next two weeks looks really nice. Sunshine, highs in the 60's, lows in the 40's. Only one day in the next 14 where the low even dips below freezing (high 20's this weekend). Expect to see blooming trees over the next few weeks. Next meaningful chance of rain not until around 3/1 when a more active pattern begins

The state is going to dry out over the next two weeks which will raise fire concerns but compared to last year we are in much better shape with most areas at or above normal precip:
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delcalendaryear_rain.current.png?cache_bust=170793 3358816

The state is going to dry out over the next two weeks which will raise fire concerns but compared to last year we are in much better shape with most areas at or above normal precip:
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delcalendaryear_rain.current.png?cache_bust=170793 3358816

as of last week ( before the rain and snow) only 7.18% of the State was in a drought ...

1 year ago 84.95% of the State was in a drought ..


even more importantly only 1.36% is severe drought and nothing worse then that 1 year ago 79.25 in Severe 56.20 in Extreme and 11.27 in Exceptional Drought ..

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

I drove home from Edmond last night just after halftime of the Super Bowl and it was a straight-out blizzard for the entire 25-minute drive.

None of it was sticking on the roads (or so it seemed) but pretty low visibility and when I got to the infamous I-44 curve near Penn Square I made sure no other cars or semis were anywhere near me. I should have probably exited earlier and taken side streets. That stretch is harrowing on a good day.

You got somewhat of a hint of how much worse nightmarish it can be when the roads are covered in snow, night, and a blizzard. In other words, a total whiteout. I been through that before on I-35 and when I finally got to my destination, I told myself I'll never do that again and haven't.

Dry, sunny and windy all week. Warm with highs in the 60’s and 70’s. Next chance of rain around 2/27-28.

You got somewhat of a hint of how much worse nightmarish it can be when the roads are covered in snow, night, and a blizzard. In other words, a total whiteout. I been through that before on I-35 and when I finally got to my destination, I told myself I'll never do that again and haven't.
I just read these. Not snow but a buddy and I left Ralston at around 5pm the night of the Bedlam Ice Bowl. We got home around 11. Should have just stayed somewhere but we were 20ish and stupid.

as of last week ( before the rain and snow) only 7.18% of the State was in a drought ...

1 year ago 84.95% of the State was in a drought ..


even more importantly only 1.36% is severe drought and nothing worse then that 1 year ago 79.25 in Severe 56.20 in Extreme and 11.27 in Exceptional Drought ..

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

update from last Thursday

only 3.23% of the state is in drought .. only .19% is in moderate ..

Oops. I forgot to turn my rain guage upside down for winter. It's in shards on the ground.

Any chances for a surprise March 2024 snowfall?

I just read these. Not snow but a buddy and I left Ralston at around 5pm the night of the Bedlam Ice Bowl. We got home around 11. Should have just stayed somewhere but we were 20ish and stupid.
Don’t be too hard on yourself. That same night my dad - then 45 at the time - drove my teenaged self back home to Wichita from a family Thanksgiving in Broken Arrow. I still remember how white-knuckled the driving was, juxtaposed with listening to the game in the radio of our ‘76 Scout. Dad was mad at himself in retrospect, but back then there was really no way to know it would be that bad. It took FOREVER.

Late spring temps today.

Any chances for a surprise March 2024 snowfall?
Probably not. But I've set up for the auto shows at the fairgrounds driving golf carts through snow between buildings in March a few years. I've also ridden the Redbud Classic in April dodging patches of ice. So you never know.

[QUOTE=Brett;1259360]Any chances for a surprise March 2024 snowfall?[/QUOTE

We might get snow in March the better question is, at this point, will it stick. 70's again next week. Ground Temps are probably extremely warm at this point. So it would have to take a monster storm with tons of cold air to get anything on the ground. Our ground temps are probably even much warmer than the storm a couple weeks ago.

The next big storm system now looks like it will pass through OK on Wednesday. The last few model runs have pushed most of the rain/storms east but there is still a chance for eastern OK Wednesday into Thursday. Also a chance of severe weather with any storms that form so will watch to see if this changes. Otherwise dry and warm weather continues until after the front moves through late next week.

Dry and very warm the next three days. Record highs possible on Tuesday. Cold and windy on Wednesday then back to warm by Friday. The jet stream position is not good for any rainfall in OK but that could change the first week of March

Some large wildfires in the Texas Panhandle today. That threat will unfortunately shift into our area tomorrow.

Was today a record high for day and maybe even February?

It hit 88 degrees at the airport today, easily breaking the old record of 82. Four degrees off of the all-time February record and tied for our 5th warmest February day.

We better start a March thread before the Hype train gets going for March 3rd and March 6th. JS

We better start a March thread before the Hype train gets going for March 3rd and March 6th. JS

Yeah, judging by a couple discord servers I'm in, the chasers are getting pretty antsy and excited about this weekend

The upcoming pattern is definitely favorable for mid-south severe weather in general, but for OKC, the usual early March caveats of moisture return and dryline position will certainly come into play. It’s much too early to feel confident about making a call in either direction at this time.

The upcoming pattern is definitely favorable for mid-south severe weather in general, but for OKC, the usual early March caveats of moisture return and dryline position will certainly come into play. It’s much too early to feel confident about making a call in either direction at this time.

Has that stopped the Hype train before. NOPE. https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/1762168917978456570?s=20

It's in full effect on X. https://x.com/wx_hawkins/status/1762201599965880810?s=20

Was today a record high for day and maybe even February?
OKC high for the month of February was 92 degrees in 1996. It was a really freak occurrence at the time, and I remember it well and think about it every year around this time.

5th warmest day in Feb since 1890 I believe I read.

February likely also ends up the warmest ever in some locations, and in the Top 3 anywhere else across OK. Really outside of that significant cold spell in January this would be the mildest winter in OK history

These high clouds are helping to keep OKC in the upper 70s. As others have mentioned already, tonight the winds will blast out of the north and winter will return for a couple days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2024022712/fv3-hires_T2m_scus_14.png

"Evacuations have been ordered for the Gage and Shattuck area after a large wildfire called the "Smokehouse Creek Fire" crossed over from Texas and into northwestern Oklahoma."

https://www.koco.com/article/wildfire-catesby-oklahoma/46995965

This smoke is crazy.

Wind shift just hit in far NW OKC - wow! And an immediate smell of smoke.

From a high of 80 today to a low of 30 tomorrow morning...

Even by Oklahoma standards that is a big shift.

From a high of 80 today to a low of 30 tomorrow morning...

Even by Oklahoma standards that is a big shift.

And then back into the 80’s this weekend…

Its looking like I didn't jinx anything with my no more winter weather comment a few weeks back. Now the question becomes will Thursday night be the last freeze of the winter?

If this is the last freeze, or if we've already had it, then we are in trouble when it comes to bugs in the spring. Wasps are already out, mosquitos will be soon. Will suck to have to deal with them in record numbers.

If this is the last freeze, or if we've already had it, then we are in trouble when it comes to bugs in the spring. Wasps are already out, mosquitos will be soon. Will suck to have to deal with them in record numbers.

my kids already have some mosquito bites

Even after we hit -14 in February 2021, the bugs were still out in full force that summer. It’s Oklahoma, the bugs are almost always going to be bad. That being said, I would bet we’ll drop into the 20s a couple of times in March. The upcoming pattern is amplified enough that I think we’re good for at least one more strong cold front.

LOL at the people who think an early warm spring will mean more bugs and hotter temps this summer. It doesn’t matter if it’s 20 below for weeks there will be bugs. Ever been to northern Minnesota in the summer? Mosquitos and ticks galore, way worse than anything we deal with in Oklahoma.

And an early spring has ZERO bearing on summer temps. The only thing that has an impact is moisture - the more rainfall in the spring the more moisture content in the soil which can mean higher dewpoints and lower actual temps (but higher heat index). There is a reason eastern OK typically has higher heat indexes than central/western OK - more rainfall plus more trees and lakes.

LOL at the people who think an early warm spring will mean more bugs and hotter temps this summer. It doesn’t matter if it’s 20 below for weeks there will be bugs. Ever been to northern Minnesota in the summer? Mosquitos and ticks galore, way worse than anything we deal with in Oklahoma.

And an early spring has ZERO bearing on summer temps. The only thing that has an impact is moisture - the more rainfall in the spring the more moisture content in the soil which can mean higher dewpoints and lower actual temps (but higher heat index). There is a reason eastern OK typically has higher heat indexes than central/western OK - more rainfall plus more trees and lakes.

okc (and the state) have way way more moisture in the ground at this point in the year .... then any of the last few years ..

okc (and the state) have way way more moisture in the ground at this point in the year .... then any of the last few years ..

True for most areas, eastern OK is running below normal but will likely catch up quickly. That part of the state typically outperforms the rest in March/April
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delseason_rain.current.png?cache_bust=170914329411 2