Starting thread now since remainder of 2023 is basically non-eventful. Saturday looks fantastic, NYE and NYD the cold air returns.

So for January there is a few storms in the jetstream that appear they will take southern tracks. This is usually needed to produce winter storms across the southern Plains. Obviously confidence is low until a few days before the event, but we can still ballpark the arrival of the lows.

First storm looks moderately strong and will need to be watched for the weekend around the 5th. At this time it looks like rain/snow mix for OKC.

Second storm looks very strong and would be impacting the area around the 10th. At this time looks like all winter precipitation for OKC.

It won't let me edit the OP, but models showing a clipper-type system flying through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Impacts look insignificant, but could see some light snow showers.

Potentially very active couple weeks coming up. Not all winter storms but the threat is definitely there with this jet stream placement.

That system on the 9th looks to have shifted north setting up the dreaded dry slot for us. Hope that thing takes a more southerly track. Still a ways out.

The GFS is being very bullish on a massive snow storm on the 9th. It's currently trending a nice pocket of snow estimated at 17 inches somewhere in NW to West-Central Oklahoma. I'm sure that shifts around a bit as it was predicting us to be dry-slotted last night with the main low up in kansas somewhere. Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on.

The GFS is being very bullish on a massive snow storm on the 9th. It's currently trending a nice pocket of snow estimated at 17 inches somewhere in NW to West-Central Oklahoma. I'm sure that shifts around a bit as it was predicting us to be dry-slotted last night with the main low up in kansas somewhere. Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on.

Whether it's rain or snow it always tends to start out overblown for the amounts.

The GFS is being very bullish on a massive snow storm on the 9th. It's currently trending a nice pocket of snow estimated at 17 inches somewhere in NW to West-Central Oklahoma. I'm sure that shifts around a bit as it was predicting us to be dry-slotted last night with the main low up in kansas somewhere. Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on.

The CMC model wants to bring more snow into OK this weekend while the GFS shows all rain with snow mainly in KS. Either way that storm should be a quick mover before the "main event" next week.

Yeah these models are bouncing around pretty good. Struggling to narrow in on an answer this far out. Multiple models in agreement that the dry slot could make this event next week a non factor. We’ll just have to see what happens.

Looks like the models are honing in on a strong jet stream from the northwest which is cutting off the southwesterly flow that would bring us moisture. Looks like our fate for this system hinges on how strongly the northwest jet is and whether the southwesterly flow could sneak some moisture in.

Ugh. Dry slot for the win on all the next storm systems coming through. Maybe a bit of snow this weekend but negligible accumulations. Still a ways out though for forecasting.

Maybe some freezing fog developing by Wednesday morning.

Next solid rain chance is Thursday night into Friday. But at this time it does not look significant for OKC. Snow should remain in PH area. Maybe some wrap-around flurries late Friday night in C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2024010218/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_59.png


Next storm is slated for Monday night into Tuesday. Looks like a pretty strong system. Dry-slot impacts across SW and C OK. Heavy rain E and snow NW. Shift in track will need to be monitored as we get closer.

GFS rainfall and snowfall forecasts for the Friday storm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024010312/gfs_apcpn_scus_14.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024010312/gfs_asnow_scus_15.png

Way too early but this is the snowfall forecast for next week's storm - right now most snow stays in Kansas but a shift south would bring significant snow to the OKC-Tulsa corridor
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024010312/gfs_asnow_scus_30.png

Way too early but this is the snowfall forecast for next week's storm - right now most snow stays in Kansas but a shift south would bring significant snow to the OKC-Tulsa corridor
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024010312/gfs_asnow_scus_30.pngStay north, stay north. stay north. Or just be warmer, that would work.

Man, El Nino is leaving OKC high and dry.

Man, El Nino is leaving OKC high and dry.

Source?

During the last 60 days, OKC's departure from normal is almost null... https://mesonet.org/weather/rainfall?ref=1208 Things are just fine.

Oklahoma is kind of in between the El Nino 'battlegrounds'. It has been very much noticeable up north though.

Graphic pretty much matches past couple of months for Oklahoma: Average
18554

The track of this storm is going to be really critical. Still some uncertainty.

Regardless, this could be a pretty big snow storm somewhere in northern Oklahoma.

January 12th-15th is the timeframe to really keep a close eye on for snow potential in OKC, IMO.

Yeah that’s looking like a powerful system too. GFS is struggling with temps though. It’s at least looking the most promising.

We’re right on that boundary between warm air and cold air. Glad my face isn’t the one on tv trying to forecast these systems lol.

Yeah. The reason I think next weekend looks more favorable is that it appears to have the potential to be a true arctic blast. We’ll see if we can get a favorable storm track along with that.

Monday Night looks like decent odds of a rain —> snow transition, but temperatures seem likely to stay fairly marginal so I’m wondering if that event will end up being similar to the 01/24/23 winter storm, where the Metro picked up 1-3” of snow but almost none of it actually stuck to the roads.

Love how the GFS has completely wiped out next weekends storm in this latest model run with a dry slot. I’m sure this thing will flip flop a lot on that storm as we go through the week.

OK skirting the line between heavy snow and cold rain with the Tuesday storm. A more southerly track could make a big impact, especially for the more northern counties and Tulsa
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024010512/gfs_asnow_scus_32.png

The GFS and NAM are in agreement that this upcoming system is not going to dive far enough south for us to get some snow out of this. The CMC is still bullish, but I’m not super stoked when it’s just one model showing it. Kinda looking like nonevent at the moment sadly. Next weekends storm is looking like a carbon copy of this one too.

Yes. The next few systems look like this past one. Quick shot of rain for OKC, then dry-slotted for remainder of the storm. However, we will be hit with bone-chilling temps by next weekend. Looks like we may see some single digit lows.

Looks like OKC gets dry slotted Tuesday. Most of the rainfall will be in E OK with some wet snow possible in the far northern counties

Next weekends storm looking more promising but will watch models this week. Bitter cold Arctic air will follow that storm, possibly some of the coldest temps since Feb 2021

Not sure if pelican migration is a weather indicator but we had over 100 descend on our neighborhood pond this morning in NW OKC. Really beautiful. 18556

Wow I can’t recall ever seeing pelicans in OKC before. Is this normal? I’ve seen seagulls but not pelicans.

They come most every winter at some point for a short time. They are very common at Grand Lake too.

Every few years a bunch will be on Hefner for a few days.
Just before Christmas I was by the Kilpatrick Turnpike and County Line. I could see a bunch of them on the pond of a gated community.

Wow I can’t recall ever seeing pelicans in OKC before. Is this normal? I’ve seen seagulls but not pelicans.

I've seen them stop in at Lake Overholser on their migration both directions, so twice a year. For many years now.
Probably pushed down by this last cold front. Probably need to keep going south.

I've also seen them at the Zoo lake and on the river. I had a friend that tended to a lame Pelican she named Charlie at Lake Hefner for years. After she died in 2021 I
wondered what happened to him.

Pelicans usually come in at least twice a year from New Orleans to play the Thunder.

Rain starts Monday morning and should end from west to east throughout the day Monday. Totals will be mostly light, some areas could pick up over 0.5” east of I-35


Snow totals trending down with the Friday storm but very cold air is still expected across the state this weekend

Liking the rain but wish it was snow. Doesn't look like we're in the target for a good winter storm through the majority of january here. GFS showing some longer term systems moving through which could bring some snow, but they don't look like very strong systems. February tends to be one of our colder months, so hopefully it's a bit more active for us.

Bulk of rain is over for OKC. Focus now will turn into cold, strong N winds that blast through late tonight through Tuesday morning.

We've received 0.68" so far at our house near downtown Edmond. I'm a massive snow lover but not when the kids go back to school tomorrow and I'm ready for the routine to be back. :) I'll take rain!

Calm right now OKC, but the bitter cold wind is about to arrive.

OKCPS is CLOSED today. Not virtual, closed. I haven't even looked outside yet, but I think this took them by surprise.

OKCPS is CLOSED today. Not virtual, closed. I haven't even looked outside yet, but I think this took them by surprise. It's nasty in spots. About half of the roads I was on are pretty dry. But many spots are slick and some were as slick as anything I've ever driven on. Meridian going South has a fairly steep downhill between 10th and where Cimarron Steakhouse was. I slid down most of that hill at maybe 5 MPH completely off the gas.

Took just a trace of snow, but with the wind blowing it around, it can accumulate in very sporadic places.

OKCPS is CLOSED today. Not virtual, closed. I haven't even looked outside yet, but I think this took them by surprise.

Doesn't seem that bad to warrant a school closure, but that just seems like the norm now since the covid closures. They were closed for weeks, so a couple of snow days here and there isn't that bad.

Was surprised at just how bad the roads were this morning. NW 36th in particular was a total skating rink through the Crown Heights area with those rolling hills.

OKCPS is CLOSED today. Not virtual, closed. I haven't even looked outside yet, but I think this took them by surprise.

Makes sense, a lot of the roads are really icy and it's not going to get above freezing until early afternoon

Sapulpa was insanely icy. Apparently it was OK early this morning, but the freeze finally set somewhere around 7ish. Bridges are a slip in slide. All the major highways are clogged with wrecks. It's a mess. Definitely more of an ice storm than a snow event per usual.

Most roads are fine in Edmond but random little strips were some of the worst I’ve driven on in years. A car slid onto the Kickingbird golf course even ramming through the fence.

Was surprised at just how bad the roads were this morning. NW 36th in particular was a total skating rink through the Crown Heights area with those rolling hills.

Yep, wife goes that way to work, her words - "Hellish drive"

OKCPS is CLOSED today. Not virtual, closed. I haven't even looked outside yet, but I think this took them by surprise.

I don't watch the news so It took me by surprise too. It was not spotty, it was pretty much solid ice when I pulled on to 63rd. I took Western and side streets from the NH area to Downtown and it was ice all the way. I heard from a neighbor that Classen was bad too - I guess it didn't get snow route treatment.

I don't watch the news so It took me by surprise too. It was not spotty, it was pretty much solid ice when I pulled on to 63rd. I took Western and side streets from the NH area to Downtown and it was ice all the way. I heard from a neighbor that Classen was bad too - I guess it didn't get snow route treatment.

Even when it's way worse than this, snow routes don't get treated/plowed in OKC, they just wait for it to melt most of the time.

David 'Payne in the ars' said in his 10PM weather segment last night we should only expect a dusting but what falls will just blow around and off the roads and that there would be no travel impacts. Some weather expert.

I don't watch the news so It took me by surprise too. It was not spotty, it was pretty much solid ice when I pulled on to 63rd. I took Western and side streets from the NH area to Downtown and it was ice all the way. I heard from a neighbor that Classen was bad too - I guess it didn't get snow route treatment.

I was off yesterday afternoon, but OKCPS did send an e-mail with a weather alert but somehow, the messaging got totally botched this morning and employees were sometimes at school or on their way, before anyone notified them that schools were closed. I found out via public comments on the OKCS Facebook page.

David 'Payne in the ars' said in his 10PM weather segment last night we should only expect a dusting but what falls will just blow around and off the roads and that there would be no travel impacts. Some weather expert.

But we only got a dusting. It isn't sticking to the ground. We got some ice, but the type of precipitation and where and amounts, especially with winter storms varies so, so significantly. No need to criticize him over this.

Not sure about Payne, but the morning KOCO guy acknowledged this morning they did not predict the icing that occurred which caused the problems.

We have a person in our office who was stuck on the turnpike for over two hours related to a truck accident due to the road conditions.

But we only got a dusting. It isn't sticking to the ground. We got some ice, but the type of precipitation and where and amounts, especially with winter storms varies so, so significantly. No need to criticize him over this.
Very true. I watched the models yesterday every 6 hours when new ones generated. I didn't see ice on any of them. So not Payne's or any other forecaster's fault for missing it.

Not sure about Payne, but the morning KOCO guy acknowledged this morning they did not predict the icing that occurred which caused the problems.

We have a person in our office who was stuck on the turnpike for over two hours related to a truck accident due to the road conditions.

KOCO is a great weather bunch and when they get something wrong they are first to admit it and move on. KWTV used to be that way with England at the helm, but Payne always moves on to the next storm hype without any acknowledgement of missed forecasts or what not -- which is odd he didn't hype up this event. But alas, winter weather in terms of snow and stuff is hard to predict. Having been around the weather industry for a while, I am very critical of Payne and his dramatization of the weather for ratings purposes. I'll always give credit where it's due. During severe weather, nobody knows severe weather as it unfolds as good as he does, but the public can do without the usual hype and dramatization of the weather leading up to a storm. Sorry for the rant not meaning to hijack the weather thread. :)

Onto the next storm!

Next week is still looking brutal in the temp department. We should have a similar shot at some quick snow showers this coming Friday night. And again some snow chances around Monday, but looks drier. At this time, the story is going to be the cold temps. Stuff we haven't seen since the historic Feb 2021.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif?cache_bust=1704821877846

KFOR put a map on Facebook that called for a wind chill of -22 next Tuesday. Brutal is right!

Doesn't seem that bad to warrant a school closure, but that just seems like the norm now since the covid closures. They were closed for weeks, so a couple of snow days here and there isn't that bad.

There was ton of black ice in western Oklahoma city (fake Yukon) and a school bus who apparently didn't get memo and was stuck on a shoulder after sliding. This was at 0630-700 when I left for work and it stunk to drive.

They were saying snow fell, melted instantly on road due to recent temps and then refroze? Makes sense.

KFOR Emily Sutton and other dude were hinting that Sunday into Monday may be a bread and milk event.........Really?

They were saying snow fell, melted instantly on road due to recent temps and then refroze? Makes sense.That does make sense.