They were saying snow fell, melted instantly on road due to recent temps and then refroze? Makes sense.

i mean, yes, it actually makes perfect sense

Not sure about Payne, but the morning KOCO guy acknowledged this morning they did not predict the icing that occurred which caused the problems.

We have a person in our office who was stuck on the turnpike for over two hours related to a truck accident due to the road conditions.

Yeah, I also got stuck on the turnpike this morning. I was parked for right at 3hrs & 15mins. What normally is a 50 minute commute to work, took me over 4 hours this morning.

Any insight into Sun-Monday storm?

Any insight into Sun-Monday storm?

Models have backed way off with snowfall totals except maybe in far NE OK.

Sunday Monday isn't being totally hyped yet cause the models don't agree at all. Euro has heavy snow GFS has nothing. Also cold air is very dry. Hard to get moisture into OKC with such dry air. It also throws snow amounts off. Dry snow is a very fluffy snow

As far as this morning the ground was very warm and the snow fell and melted. Than temperature kept dropping all night and we had a flash freeze. Friday morning might be a repeat with 1/2 inch of snow in the metro. People also just need to slow down and take their time while driving in this weather. Don't assume the road is dry.

Sunday Monday isn't being totally hyped yet cause the models don't agree at all. Euro has heavy snow GFS has nothing. Also cold air is very dry. Hard to get moisture into OKC with such dry air. It also throws snow amounts off. Dry snow is a very fluffy snow

Sutton was still talking bread and milk for the weekend's event this morning.

Early Friday morning, we could see another quick band of snow come across the area leading to more slick spots.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024011012/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_45.png

Sutton was still talking bread and milk for the weekend's event this morning.

She's usually pretty moderate on predictions (compared to her Chief met...) so it's interesting that she's still talking about it.

We probably won't get a lot of snow, if any, but a little bit of "Dry Snow" can go a long way in terms of accumulation.

And given the temps, any snow that falls will stick around on the ground for a while

This is truly a strange weather setup with two subtropical jets and a polar jet all in the northern hemisphere currently. That tropical jet has just not backed off and it’s keep these storm systems from pushing far enough south. It looks to back off a bit next week but a massive shift takes place in two weeks that looks more like a conventional spring severe weather setup with strong flow out of the southwest….if the models hold.

This is truly a strange weather setup with two subtropical jets and a polar jet all in the northern hemisphere currently. That tropical jet has just not backed off and it’s keep these storm systems from pushing far enough south. It looks to back off a bit next week but a massive shift takes place in two weeks that looks more like a conventional spring severe weather setup with strong flow out of the southwest….if the models hold.

Nice, we will freeze our butts off in week 1 and have severe weather in week 2.

Light accumulations of snow possible tomorrow morning mainly in E OK as the front passes. Possibly even some thunder before it switches to snow.

The GFS is showing higher snow totals across OK for Monday. I wouldn’t put too much stock in it yet but the possibility is there

I heard 1-3" for central Oklahoma, Sunday into Monday...

I heard 1-3" for central Oklahoma, Sunday into Monday...

Ive heard all kinds of things to this point!! Gonna wake up and put a coat or two on and see what the day brings.
��

For Sunday-Monday: Early model data suggesting a wide swath of measurable snow. With some areas getting up to 5" favoring N of I-40 corridor. Air will be extremely dry and cold. I will update once we have some better data.

Early Friday AM expect a quick dusting, much like we saw earlier this week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2024011112/fv3-hires_asnow_scus_30.png

Will the Friday AM quick dusting have the same effect on the roads that it did earlier this week?

Will the Friday AM quick dusting have the same effect on the roads that it did earlier this week?

It might. Going to get up to 60F today and then drop down to 20F by sunrise tomorrow so very well could see snow melting on warm road surfaces and then refreezing as the cold air becomes more established.

Meanwhile, an advisory-level snowfall is looking more and more likely for Sunday, though there could be a sharp gradient in accumulations somewhere in the vicinity of the Metro (higher totals to the north/east).

Gonna wake up and put a coat or two on and see what the day brings.
��

Sunny with a high around 85 confirmed.

Sunny with a high around 85 confirmed.

Haha. Actually the high Sunday will likely be around 20F and that will occur at midnight Saturday night. The daytime high on Sunday will be closer to 15.

Also I don't want to think about this yet, but depending on any snowpack, OKC may struggle to get above zero on Monday.

Mike Morgan hyping up the cold wind chills:

https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1745480864559997361?s=20

Gotta say, I'm glad most schools are out on Monday, that's dangerous, dangerous stuff.

Sunny with a high around 85 confirmed.

LOL, I get the joke.

NWS Norman just put out a graphic for Sunday calling for roughly 1-3” of snow across the Metro.

Looking past Monday are we going to start the warm back up to normal? Hoping this is a short cold air blast.

The true arctic air should retreat by Wednesday allowing for highs to rise back above freezing but we will likely stay below normal for at least the next 10-14 days.

The true arctic air should retreat by Wednesday allowing for highs to rise back above freezing but we will likely stay below normal for at least the next 10-14 days.

I'll take it. Thanks!

Cold air is dry air keep that in Mind. Hard sometimes to get snow in Oklahoma with such cold dry air. A few computers models are really taking snowfall totals down for the metro on Sunday/Monday. We will see if that trend continues.

HRRR heading into this evening is trending to no longer have a band of snow across C OK overnight. May have an early evening rain shower, though.

HRRR heading into this evening is trending to no longer have a band of snow across C OK overnight. May have an early evening rain shower, though.

10 PM HRRR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2024011123/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_5.png

It's raining in far NW OKC right now. I wonder how long it will last?

Well, looks like we got spared any impactful precipitation this time around, so roads should be fine this morning.

Models have been backing off of snow amounts on Sunday but are generally still all over the place, and with higher than average snow-to-water ratios looking very likely due to temperatures in the teens, it won't take much precipitation for enough snow accumulation to cause travel issues, especially since that anything that falls will stick to the roads given the antecedent cold conditions. So all in all, a very low confidence forecast considering we're only 48 hours out from the potential event at this point.

Well, looks like we got spared any impactful precipitation this time around, so roads should be fine this morning.

Roads were amazing! I had to drive up from Ardmore this morning and I-35 is usually a parking lot from about Indian Hills to I-40 when I make that drive... Guessing the panic kept everyone home because this morning I did the speed limit all the way to downtown... IT WAS GREAT ;)

Well, looks like we got spared any impactful precipitation this time around, so roads should be fine this morning.

Models have been backing off of snow amounts on Sunday but are generally still all over the place, and with higher than average snow-to-water ratios looking very likely due to temperatures in the teens, it won't take much precipitation for enough snow accumulation to cause travel issues, especially since that anything that falls will stick to the roads given the antecedent cold conditions. So all in all, a very low confidence forecast considering we're only 48 hours out from the potential event at this point.

Models generally suck at forecasting winter weather more than a couple days out (or in yesterday's case the day before)

Models this morning are starving the Sunday-Monday system of meaningful moisture until the low is pushing through AR. Basically looking like a trace of dry snow roughly anywhere N of I-40 and E of I-35. Highest potential accumulation across NE quadrant.

I would even say Dallas has a better shot at accumulating precipitation than OKC.

Man, moisture is missing OKC like crazy. Every storm, it seems OKC gets missed by rain or other moisture.

From most bullish to least [in OKC]:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011212/gfs_asnow_scus_16.png





https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2024011212/rgem_asnow_scus_84.png





https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2024011212/gem_asnow_scus_15.png





https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024011212/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

3 inches of snow in south texas would be wild ..

Man, moisture is missing OKC like crazy. Every storm, it seems OKC gets missed by rain or other moisture.

Sorry to disagree, but we have had a relatively wet December and January according to my backyard observations. We are doing pretty well for this time of the year, actually.

Sorry to disagree, but we have had a relatively wet December and January according to my backyard observations. We are doing pretty well for this time of the year, actually.

You're right, the last month has been above average across pretty much the entire state
https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/del30day_rain.current.png?cache_bust=1705091939811

Man, moisture is missing OKC like crazy. Every storm, it seems OKC gets missed by rain or other moisture.

none of OKC metro is currently in a drought .. and only 15% of the state is .. a year ago over 89% of the state was in a drought

none of OKC metro is currently in a drought .. and only 15% of the state is .. a year ago over 89% of the state was in a droughtEven though we haven't had a sailboat in a few years I still judge how wet/dry we are by the water level in lake Hefner. The last two or three years the water has been high enough for sailboats to not have any issues. We sold our last sailboat 7 or 8 years ago because we couldn't get it out of the slip more often than not.

Even though we haven't had a sailboat in a few years I still judge how wet/dry we are by the water level in lake Hefner. The last two or three years the water has been high enough for sailboats to not have any issues. We sold our last sailboat 7 or 8 years ago because we couldn't get it out of the slip more often than not.

This works to a certain extent, but not completely given that OKC will occasionally purchase water from Canton Lake during abnormally dry periods or have to release excess water downstream during abnormally wet periods. My gold standard is the UNL Drought Monitor which is updated every Thursday Morning.

Continuing to look less and less likely that we will see any significant snow accumulations on Sunday.

It is snowing right now at NW Expressway and Mustang Road.

Snowing up here in north Edmond. It's a pretty winter scene.

Continuing to look less and less likely that we will see any significant snow accumulations on Sunday.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:

Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Canadian - Cleveland - Garfield - Grant - Hughes - Kay - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - Major - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Seminole
Effective: Sun, 1/14 9:00am Updated: Sat, 1/13 3:10pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Mon, 1/15 12:00am Severity: Minor Certainty: Likely

Details:
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST SUNDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills.
Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Winter Weather
Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to three
inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, northern, northwest
and southeast Oklahoma.
* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, until noon CST Tuesday. For
the Winter Weather Advisory, from 9 AM Sunday to midnight CST
Sunday night.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold
wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little
as 30 minutes.

Information:
Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
For the latest road conditions call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7.

It is snowing at NW 178th & May right now (10:23 am, Sunday).

cold air is dry air. Hard to get a good snow when it's 4 out. I'm sure other will disagree but show me some big snow totals in OKC with temps 10 or below. Of Course Tv Mets doing a bit of back tracking this morning. They did say amounts could change or they never said it would 100 percent snow. They always have an out don't they. Anyway that all being said can we start talking about the ice storm next Sunday-Monday or is it too soon. :)

cold air is dry air. Hard to get a good snow when it's 4 out. I'm sure other will disagree but show me some big snow totals in OKC with temps 10 or below. Of Course Tv Mets doing a bit of back tracking this morning. They did say amounts could change or they never said it would 100 percent snow. They always have an out don't they. Anyway that all being said can we start talking about the ice storm next Sunday-Monday or is it too soon. :)

I don't know man, last thing I saw was we'd get anywhere from basically nothing to 4 inches and it's snowing pretty good where I'm at (50th and Western).

Nice picturesque snow across most of OKC right now.

At 2:15 PM the skies have cleared at NW Highway and Sara Road.

cold air is dry air. Hard to get a good snow when it's 4 out. I'm sure other will disagree but show me some big snow totals in OKC with temps 10 or below. Of Course Tv Mets doing a bit of back tracking this morning. They did say amounts could change or they never said it would 100 percent snow. They always have an out don't they. Anyway that all being said can we start talking about the ice storm next Sunday-Monday or is it too soon. :)

February 2021 we got 10+" of snow during that arctic blast. It's rare but can happen from time to time.

Home weather station read 0 air temp and -8 wind chill about 630 AM this morning. Just now at 720 AM dropped to -1 air temp. BRRRRR.

A few weather models hinting at an Ice storm next Sunday and Monday!
18571

A few weather models hinting at an Ice storm next Sunday and Monday!
18571

Ah yes, a half inch of ice would be just what the doctor ordered. Hopefully it backs off that amount.

Ugh.

Temps should be warm enough for this next storm to be mostly rain but will be worth watching closely

Temps should be warm enough for this next storm to be mostly rain but will be worth watching closely
This. CMC is showing major ice. GFS has it all rain.

Let the Ice storm Hype begin. Yeah 2021 we did have snow when it was really cold. It's very rare though and hard to do in OKC.