Solid weekend on tap with highs near 60.

Looking ahead, nothing significant. Big storm system will be in the region around December 10. Will keep an eye on it, at this time it looks like track will be through TX.

Yeah the EURO has been more optimistic than the GFS about OK impacts from that 12/10-11 storm even the potential for winter weather. We should know more mid-next week.

Rainfall-wise many areas are still below normal and November was fairly dry for most areas outside of SE OK. December-January are typically the driest months of the year but hopefully there is periodic rainfall/snowfall to keep fire conditions low during those warmer and windier days with low humidity.
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delseason_rain.current.png?cache_bust=170145409566 7

Looking at annual rainfall there are very clear haves and have nots. North-central OK and areas near the KS border are still in the midst of an historic drought while areas in Tulsa southward have an annual surplus. SW and south-central OK still have not fully recovered from a particularly hot and dry summer. Hopefully El Niño brings more winter precip across the state and a wet spring.
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delcalendaryear_rain.current.png?cache_bust=170145 4463271

That's about as spotty a rainfall maps as l've seen. Usually there are distinct patterns.

That's about as spotty a rainfall maps as l've seen. Usually there are distinct patterns.

Agree it’s been a very unusual year for rainfall across the state. The NW and Panhandle really stand out after their historic wet summer. No surprise in SE OK where the Ouachita Mountains usually have the highest statewide totals

S Winds will continue to increase heading into this evening. These will continue Thursday and Friday until Friday evening when the front blasts through leaving us with a cold Saturday with strong N winds. Maybe a passing shower in C OK, but nothing significant precipitation wise.

Next storm looks to be coming around the 14th.

The storm on the 14th looks like it could mainly affect the TX/OK panhandles before moving south into Texas. Some models have shown it staying north so something to watch for next weekend.

The next storm arrives around the 24th and could be a snow maker to some parts of OK/KS. Way to far out to know where yet though.

Forecasted rainfall totals through the weekend. Great news for dry areas in western OK!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023121306/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_30.png

Sure has been a mild December so far. I’m sure that will change at some point though.

The Erick and Hollis Mesonet sites have already recorded 0.82" of rain from this system. Very good.

Fantastic soaking rain chances begin later tonight through Friday evening for OKC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023121412/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_49.png

Is that rain going to make it to OKC? I'm afraid to drag my feet on grass, for fear of setting thr ground ablaze, with how dry it is.

I got at least an inch at my house near Penn Square.

Much-needed rainfall out west and decent pick-ups in many other areas across central and northern OK
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.72hr.png?cache_bust=1702671315925

Models are showing another storm impacting the state around 12/22 and again 12/24-25 with 2-3" of rainfall possible

Interestingly weird Oklahoma weather. The heaviest rain by far fell on the west side. It's usually on the east side.

Mike Morgan is excited about the next rainy spell coming at Christmas time.

Sure has been a mild December so far. I’m sure that will change at some point though.

You do realize that winter does not start until December 21st? That is why it has been mild

You do realize that winter does not start until December 21st? That is why it has been mild


????????

You do realize that winter does not start until December 21st? That is why it has been mild

there is a very big difference between astronomical seasons and meteorological seasons.

Average first freeze for central Oklahoma is around November 9th.

EURO forecasted rainfall totals through Christmas. Looking more likely that this is a multi-day rain event with showers possible everyday from Thursday through Monday with the most widespread coverage Thursday evening and Saturday evening
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023121812/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_54.png

Rain chances increase Thursday evening. Then a break Friday before the main storm system comes through Saturday night into Sunday. Christmas day looks cold and windy on the backside of the low.

The GFS has increased rainfall from central to NE OK mainly on Sunday. Forecasted totals through Christmas:

EURO
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023122012/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_44.png

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023122018/gfs_apcpn_scus_21.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023122212/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_60.png

Sounds like things go downhill tomorrow but today is absolutely beautiful!! Happy holidays!

With no precipitation expected for the next week it looks like this will be how we close out 2023. Drought continues in some areas, especially areas north of Tulsa, but overall we’re in much better shape than a year ago. With El Niño we should continue to improve with higher risk for spring flooding.

https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.8760hr.png?cache_bust=1703518344345

https://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delcalendaryear_rain.current.png?cache_bust=170351 8745932

Looking out long term, and there are no signals of snow coming in. Sure would be nice to get a good snow storm or two this year. Looks like there are some signs that the cold air really starts to push south here in a couple of weeks though.

The last few GFS runs have been showing a snow storm the second week of January. I wouldn’t put much stock in the totals yet but there is a high likelihood of some cold air/snow during this timeframe

Looking out long term, and there are no signals of snow coming in. Sure would be nice to get a good snow storm or two this year. Looks like there are some signs that the cold air really starts to push south here in a couple of weeks though.

What is this appeal some people have with wanting snow? Is it simply the solid whiteness it makes of the landscape is beyond too beautiful to describe? Sorry, but to me the slippery, dangerous conditions of the roads cancel out the beauty for me.

What is this appeal some people have with wanting snow? Is it simply the solid whiteness it makes of the landscape is beyond too beautiful to describe? Sorry, but to me the slippery, dangerous conditions of the roads cancel out the beauty for me.

For me, it’s something that doesn’t happen often here, so I really enjoy it. It’s peaceful. Get to stay home from work. Go sledding. Etc.

I would think differently if we had major snow storms every week, but we just don’t get them that often. Plus, if it’s going to be cold, it might as well snow. lol.

I like a good snow storm where I’m huddled up at home. As long as I don’t have to drive anywhere, I’m good with it. Not crazy about the ice and not crazy about days on end of temps in the single digits.

For me, it’s something that doesn’t happen often here, so I really enjoy it. It’s peaceful. Get to stay home from work. Go sledding. Etc.

I would think differently if we had major snow storms every week, but we just don’t get them that often. Plus, if it’s going to be cold, it might as well snow. lol.

agree on all counts

I like a good snow storm where I’m huddled up at home. As long as I don’t have to drive anywhere, I’m good with it. Not crazy about the ice and not crazy about days on end of temps in the single digits.

OKC generally doesn't have "days on end" of single digit temps, I think there's only been one stretch more than 2 days of that since we moved back in 2009, but I don't have the time or inclination to search. That's the main reason we moved out of Chicagoland and find the winters much more bearable here.

For me, it’s something that doesn’t happen often here, so I really enjoy it. It’s peaceful. Get to stay home from work. Go sledding. Etc.

I would think differently if we had major snow storms every week, but we just don’t get them that often. Plus, if it’s going to be cold, it might as well snow. lol.

If we had snowstorms every other week, Oklahoman's would be better prepared and wouldn't freak out every time it happened.

OKC generally doesn't have "days on end" of single digit temps, I think there's only been one stretch more than 2 days of that since we moved back in 2009, but I don't have the time or inclination to search. That's the main reason we moved out of Chicagoland and find the winters much more bearable here.

There was that stretch a couple of years ago where it got in the single digits for a week and it took a toll on our plumbing. But yes, generally we don't have too many days like that (thankfully).