We will be starting out August with a continuation of the heat wave that dominated the last week of July. Next 4-5 days will be hot and dry. OKC has topped out at 100F so far this year but may reach a degree or two higher than that during this timeframe depending on how well dewpoints are able to mix out in the mid-late afternoon hours. At some point over the weekend, the ridge will break down and allow a cold front to move through, which should knock 10-15 degrees off of our highs and finally bring back a return of precipitation chances. I'll make an educated guess and say that OKC will most likely be on the edge of the ridge for the remainder of the month. If this happens, we will likely alternate between bouts of heat, and occasional disturbances moving through with accompanying storm chances and reductions in temperature. All in all, I think that it's looking to be a fairly standard August for this part of the country. We shall see.

The AC in my car decided to break today. Needless to say, it was a steamy commute home today.

A few more really hot (100+) days then the heat dome begins to shift south and west allowing better rain chances all next week. First chance will be this weekend starting Saturday into Sunday. Not huge amounts but we'll take it. Better chances throughout next week with systems riding the NW flow from Colorado/Kansas, many of them overnight or early morning. Northern OK has the best chance of seeing the highest totals

GFS through this weekend
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023080218/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

Today, 8/3, was the hottest day this summer, so far, in my backyard with it being 105. 113 was the heat index. The hottest high ever was probably 115 in Aug. 2012. So things could be even worse.

Heat is expected to let up on Sunday when high is expected to be closer to 90 than 105. It may rain, too, hopefully.

I have got to find an alternative to Oklahoma summers... Maybe a cabin in Minnesota or something similar.

I get legitimately depressed by this weather -- it's just brutal and so hard on animals and people who don't have the luxury of sitting in a/c all day and night.

At least we aren't south Texas. Austin is still dealing with extreme drought and worse temperatures. I believe today puts them at 26 days so far of 100F+.

If anyone wants to know where OKC would be without all the rain we got early summer, just look to the SW where they are on par with Austin. Top map is days of 100+, bottom map is current drought monitor.

https://i.imgur.com/N4ByFld.png

Have Oklahoma summers always been this hot or am I just getting older and hating the heat more? I don’t recall them being unbearable when I was younger, but maybe I tolerated it better.

Have Oklahoma summers always been this hot or am I just getting older and hating the heat more? I don’t recall them being unbearable when I was younger, but maybe I tolerated it better.

2011 was the hottest ever.

But 1980 was a close 2nd. I was a lifeguard on summer break from OU. Don't ask me how, but I sat in the full sun (no umbrella) 8-10 hours every day that summer and I doubt I even wore sunscreen. Temps hit 100 degrees 50 (!!!) times that summer. I remember the pool water was like a very warm bath and it didn't even cool you off.

Last summer was much worse than this one, but only getting above 100 a dozen times or so is hardly cause for celebration.


As a side note, I have a ton of friends that have moved to Austin from California. Now, they understand why California is so expensive... Of the 4 places I lived out there, 3 didn't have or need a/c. And in the 4th, I used it once or twice a year, maximum. Most summer nights were too cool to sleep with a window open.... sigh.

Texas is worse. No matter what the weather is here, Texas is more humid, closer to the equator, and just in general worse. Houston is a swamp, Austin a sauna, same with San Antonio, and DFW. OKC isn't much better, of course, but it is worse there. There isn't any escaping it, either. Other places are either how or more humid (both garbage options). Moving north is all you have, but then the winners are terrible. A friend in Minnesota had a gas bill in January of $432, due to having to have the heat on 24/7 so his pipes didn't freeze.

One of my friends moved to Austin 3-4 years ago after about a decade in SoCal.

I traded messages with her yesterday and she said their neighborhood has a pool but it's too hot to even go over there. She seemed legitimately depressed. The newness of 'we were able to buy a house!' has long worn off.

I lived in Dallas one summer and it did seem significantly worse than OKC, and that's saying something.

Texas summers are much worse than Oklahoma summers. At least in OKC, you can count on approximately 7 days per July/August that don't hit 90 degrees. In DFW and Austin, you're looking at maybe 2-3 days like that. And don't even get me started on the humidity in Houston.

Growing up in Michigan, summers were reasonably nice, but it still got uncomfortably humid a lot of the time. And of course, you can still go out shortly after sunset or before sunrise in OKC and have halfway decent temperatures even when the highs are hitting triple digits. Good luck living in Michigan and finding any decent weather to go outside in between the beginning of December and the end of February. So all in all, I greatly prefer the climate down here, though it certainly gets tough during extended heat domes like the one that's been parked over us for the past two weeks.

Side note - if you can handle the lack of precipitation, Colorado has one of the nicest climates in the country, temperature-wise. Humidity is low enough out there that nighttime temperatures are usually pleasantly cool even during the heart of summer, and winter cold snaps there tend to be relatively brief. But similar to California, the secret is out on that climate, and the cost of living there reflects that.

I have got to find an alternative to Oklahoma summers... Maybe a cabin in Minnesota or something similar.

I get legitimately depressed by this weather -- it's just brutal and so hard on animals and people who don't have the luxury of sitting in a/c all day and night.

I love this weather and think it is great because severe weather is usually nonexistent with this weather pattern. I think that severe weather every other day or so is not fun. Since I have had my house destroyed by a tornado,I tend to have some PTSD from severe storms.

I love this weather and think it is great because severe weather is usually nonexistent with this weather pattern. I think that severe weather every other day or so is not fun. Since I have had my house destroyed by a tornado,I tend to have some PTSD from severe storms.

I mean, severe weather is also pretty much nonexistent in the fall and winter too and I can actually go outside.

I mean, severe weather is also pretty much nonexistent in the fall and winter too and I can actually go outside.

We have our second severe weather season in the fall. Usually October and some of November. Usually have less severe storms during this time than the spring. Winter can have some good days, but anything below 50 degrees is not my preference.

During these hot days, it's pretty quiet outside in my yard during the hours of 10am-6pm as no one wants to be hanging outside during that period. Before and after, it's the constant revving mowers and weedeaters.

So I guess we get a 3 day respite from upper 90s, and then it's back for a while?

So I guess we get a 3 day respite from upper 90s, and then it's back for a while?

I think the next stretch of above average temperatures will start on Wednesday but is likely to be short-lived. Unlike the last two weeks, we should remain on the edge of the ridge which will allow for it to occasionally break down and open us up to storm chances. I'm sticking to the call I made when I started this thread that throughout much of August, we will likely alternate between bouts of heat and occasional disturbances moving through with accompanying storm chances and reductions in temperature. I don't think we'll have a week straight of MCS activity like we did at the beginning of July, but I also don't think we'll have a week straight of triple-digit highs like we're having at the moment.

I think the next stretch of above average temperatures will start on Wednesday but is likely to be short-lived. Unlike the last two weeks, we should remain on the edge of the ridge which will allow for it to occasionally break down and open us up to storm chances. I'm sticking to the call I made when I started this thread that throughout much of August, we will likely alternate between bouts of heat and occasional disturbances moving through with accompanying storm chances and reductions in temperature. I don't think we'll have a week straight of MCS activity like we did at the beginning of July, but I also don't think we'll have a week straight of triple-digit highs like we're having at the moment.

I like this forecast so I will choose to believe it.

I think the next stretch of above average temperatures will start on Wednesday but is likely to be short-lived. Unlike the last two weeks, we should remain on the edge of the ridge which will allow for it to occasionally break down and open us up to storm chances. I'm sticking to the call I made when I started this thread that throughout much of August, we will likely alternate between bouts of heat and occasional disturbances moving through with accompanying storm chances and reductions in temperature. I don't think we'll have a week straight of MCS activity like we did at the beginning of July, but I also don't think we'll have a week straight of triple-digit highs like we're having at the moment.

The models are keeping "the dome" over south Texas which helps us get more storms and "cooler" temps, especially across northern OK. The situation in Texas is increasingly bleak: Austin broke its all-time record for 100+ days today with 28 days straight of 100+ with no end in sight. No rain since June and no chances anytime in the next 2 weeks, though this time of year you sometimes see tropical systems head into TX from the Gulf.

Decent rain chances across the state starting Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday highs in the low 90's with rain-cooled air will feel really nice.

Coming a nice shower NW OKC this Saturday morn with some big thunder and lightening. I’ll take it!!

Rain and some embedded storms will be ongoing across northern OK the rest of the afternoon. A more potent line of storms should move down from Kansas overnight. Northern parts of the OKC metro into NE OK have the best shot at seeing heavy rain and damaging winds

HRRR model for 3 am Sunday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023080516/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_16.png

Heckuva downburst from earlier today

https://twitter.com/wx_okla/status/1687796686054141952?t=w71Uk6W5CG7ERvVzqhqaeg&s=19

That is an awesome video!

More storms expected to move north to south overnight.

HRRR at 6 am Monday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023080701/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

Nice training storms this morning really keeping temperatures down across the Metro. Some decent rainfall totals as well for areas lucky enough to be in the line of fire.

Shawnee gets most of the rain. SE OKC missed out by 10 miles on much needed rain.

Another decent chance at getting some rain late tonight into Tuesday morning. Very similar location and style as what we saw this morning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2023080712/nam3km_apcpn_scus_10.png

Chipping away at this map from north to south. It couldn't come at a better time with the recent heat, and in one what typically is one of the driest months of the year

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png?cache_bust=169142 4144730

That's quite a sharp contrast in Oklahoma City area from 0 to 24. Shows well how the switch in the jet stream to northwesterly flow and the cold masses that get caught up in it affected Oklahoma. I don't think the grass is staying green in southwest Oklahoma and in the far south.

Another overnight storm complex will move across the state tonight. Right now models are favoring east-central OK for the highest rainfall totals

HRRR at 4 am Tuesday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023080800/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

really nice hard rain in Edmond early this morning

What did everyone get in their rain gauges?

I know I got over an inch.

What did everyone get in their rain gauges?

I know I got over an inch.


1.33" here in the Oak Tree area.

1.4 ish NW OKC

Diddly down near Draper.

Last round of overnight storms will move across mainly northern OK early Wednesday. Another chance of storms returns early Saturday. Drier and hot next week with storm chances later in the week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023080819/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_15.png

.57 in Yukon.

.85" on east side of Stillwater. Two locations on the southwest side had 1.36". They benefitted from overhead development of storms out ahead of the main part.

HRRR trying to develop severe storms in east-central OK around 5-6 pm. Higher severe threat closer to Arkansas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023080918/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_6.png

Pictured, an isolated storm located halfway between Stillwater and Tulsa at 8 pm, 8/9. Picture taken in Stillwater. It was gone by 9:30 pm. Stronger storms were in northeast OK and AR as well as along the Red River centered near Durant.

We missed a soaking Wednesday morning from the Kansas storms moving east this time and bypassing us. What came out of the Texas panhandle didn't amount to much for most people, only .03" here.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stormcloud.jpg

^ Yeah the cap was too strong for anything to really get going in NE OK.

Overnight storm complexes will again be moving across the northern half of OK Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday mornings. Overall chances don't like as good as last weekend though.

the state is now (as of tuesday the 8th (date was released today) only 12.81% in drought and only 1.6% in level D3 (extreme drought)

1 year ago these levels were 99.33% in drought and 48.83 in extreme drought ...

that is pretty amazing ..


also over 60% of the state is not even " Abnormally Dry"

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

Unfortunately looking more likely that the heat dome moves back overhead starting around the middle of next week.

Unfortunately looking more likely that the heat dome moves back overhead starting around the middle of next week.

Some models are still hinting that we'll be on the edge of "the dome" like this past week which allows for NW flow. This will favor the northern counties over the weekend and early next week but the rest of the state could see relief toward next weekend when the high shifts again

Tropics have been really quiet but usually start to heat up as we get closer to September. Always worth watching the Gulf for systems that could impact our weather as they come up through Texas or in some cases from the Eastern Pacific

Tropics have been really quiet but usually start to heat up as we get closer to September. Always worth watching the Gulf for systems that could impact our weather as they come up through Texas or in some cases from the Eastern Pacific

NOAA did update its 2023 hurricane forecast to increase the number and intensity of forecasted storms today...

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-forecasters-increase-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction-to-above-normal#:~:text=NOAA%27s%20update%20to%20the%202023 ,of%20111%20mph%20or%20greater).

"NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater)."

One thing to hate about OKC, the late summer heat dome.

NOAA did update its 2023 hurricane forecast to increase the number and intensity of forecasted storms today...

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-forecasters-increase-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction-to-above-normal#:~:text=NOAA%27s%20update%20to%20the%202023 ,of%20111%20mph%20or%20greater).

"NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater)."

This suprised me, between the Sahara dust (which l understand helps supress hurricane formation) and El Nino (which usually provides stronger upper level winds to sheer off hurricane growth).

Could see some isolated pulse storms develop along a retreating warm front this afternoon. Coverage should be low, but if anything forms, it could produce marginally severe winds as the core collapses. Overnight storms will likely focus to the NE of the Metro once again.

Tomorrow evening, and especially Sunday evening should feature better thunderstorm chances as storm complexes will have a decent shot at moving in from the NW. Again, marginally severe winds would likely be the main hazard.

A seasonably strong cold front will move through overnight Sunday, so Monday and Tuesday should be quite nice. Thereafter, the ridge quickly builds back in and we may well set a new high temperature mark for the year sometime between the 18th and the 23rd (current mark to beat is 103F). After that, looks like the ridge should break down again towards the end of the month, potentially opening the door to some more seasonably cool temperatures. But at that point, we're talking 2-3 weeks out from today, so it could easily end up changing.

^ right on.

Small cluster of storms trying to get going along TX/OK border, short-range models show them trying to come down I-40 and mostly collapsing at dark before reaching C OK.

Ended up being a fairly impressive cluster of storms which tracked all the way from Clinton to Perry (and is still severe warned up there). Couple of sig severe wind gusts out in West Central OK. As far as OKC goes, relatively disorganized storms are weakening fairly rapidly as they approach the Metro, though we may still get some light precipitation amounts. Would expect these to dissipate over the next few hours.

Given the robust convective coverage relative to expectations today, would not be surprised if a leftover boundary in the vicinity of I-40 ended up triggering another round of storms late tomorrow afternoon. Thinking that the existing D2 Slight Risk in the Panhandles might get extended to the SE, though the overall severe threat still looks to focus just NW of the Metro tomorrow.

This map is pretty amazing considering what we experienced last summer, especially the areas in western OK and Panhandle. The Red River valley has been the only area that has mostly missed out and the situation further south into Texas is increasingly dire with the heat dome strengthening this week

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.1440hr.png?cache_bust=1691932209450

Severe storms possible on the north side of the OKC metro and toward Tulsa later tonight. Possibly two rounds with another line possible early morning Monday. Then dry weather for the next week

HRRR at 11 pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023081318/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

Man, the Southside of the metro can't buy any rain.

MD is out for W OK into the TX PH. Should see storms firing in the next couple hours. Will have to monitor radar trends, but heaviest stuff looks to stay N of I-40.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023081320/hrrr_apcpn_scus_14.png

One thing to hate about OKC, the late summer heat dome.

At least they sometimes take a break this summer. Mon. and Tues. highs will only be in the low to mid 80s.

The humidity seems worse this summer, likely due to the heavy rains in July. Dewpoints approaching 80 degrees is not normal in August

Man, the Southside of the metro can't buy any rain.

At least Stillwater isn't getting bypassed with heavy rain as of 11pm with a severe thunderstorm warning to go with it, but nothing serious coming in, so far. Will likely get better than a half inch of rain.

At least Stillwater isn't getting bypassed with heavy rain as of 11pm with a severe thunderstorm warning to go with it, but nothing serious coming in, so far. Will likely get better than a half inch of rain.

Mother Nature basically wants SE OKC to fry. It's crazy how every other area of the metro gets rain but us near Draper.

The humidity seems worse this summer, likely due to the heavy rains in July. Dewpoints approaching 80 degrees is not normal in August

Really. I know. Try going for a walk in this air. You'll end up sweating profusely.

Mother Nature basically wants SE OKC to fry. It's crazy how every other area of the metro gets rain but us near Draper.

There is still a lot of rain coming in from western Oklahoma. You may not get missed, yet. Stillwater is currently getting a 2nd round of heavy rain and it's even heavier than the first one. Still with no severe weather, like high wind or hail. Hopefully, it stays that way. Rain amount in Stillwater has already gone over 1.25" inch and counting. Two plus inches may finally be it.