Wow, a third round of heavy rain came into Stillwater, even heavier than the first two. At one brief point it was coming in at a bit over 9" per hour. It quickly got the rain total over 2" at 2.25" currently. More rain coming. This is surely the heaviest rain event of this year for Stillwater. It has now resulted in a flash flood warning as follows:

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Payne County in central Oklahoma...
* Until 300 AM CDT.
* At 1147 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Stillwater, Yale, Glencoe, Lake Carl Blackwell, Quay and Ingalls.
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

^ Payne County has some of the highest rainfall totals over the past 60 days…13-14”. Which is unbelievable for July/August

That was not a normal storm last night in Edmond. There was an alien spacecraft inside of that storm. The way the sky lit up. And there was a very weird sound. Not natural at all.

Mother Nature basically wants SE OKC to fry. It's crazy how every other area of the metro gets rain but us near Draper.

It's funny for me to read these, pretty sure Mother Nature doesn't really care much about human-created property boundaries. :D

It's funny for me to read these, pretty sure Mother Nature doesn't really care much about human-created property boundaries. :D

You took my sarcastic comment literally. Guess I should have made it more thinly-veiled.

I know, but there has been a line basically right through my zip code where rains have basically been zero on the south side, and fairly heavy on the north side.

You took my sarcastic comment literally. Guess I should have made it more thinly-veiled.

I know, but there has been a line basically right through my zip code where rains have basically been zero on the south side, and fairly heavy on the north side.

Nah, it's not just your comment, it's others (both here and elsewhere) that do it too, and some just have to be not sarcastic and for real...

You took my sarcastic comment literally. Guess I should have made it more thinly-veiled.

I know, but there has been a line basically right through my zip code where rains have basically been zero on the south side, and fairly heavy on the north side.

At least you're not south-central OK. Some of the Texas counties south of the Red River saw rain last week but DFW and points south are still bone dry.

Crazy how Lawton picked up a few inches but Walters 30 miles south saw nothing.. Almost as strange as Beaver having nearly 4" more rain over the summer than Broken Bow!

Things are really going to dry out over the next two weeks though, and the heat will be back in full force this next weekend.

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png?cache_bust=169204 7696355

Still thinking that OKC will hit 105F at some point during this next heat wave. Should be relatively low humidity, at least.

Long-term, I am interested to see if the potential for a tropical system to landfall in the vicinity of Baja California in approximately 7-10 days will finally be what nudges the persistent heat dome out of the Southern Plains.

^ Payne County has some of the highest rainfall totals over the past 60 days…13-14”. Which is unbelievable for July/August

Some Stillwater people had at most a bit over 3". Meso got 2.82". Rain that much is kind of rare here. Some residents got acquainted or reacquainted with places where the flash street flooding is the worst, such as on Lakeview from Perkins Rd. to the railroad tracks. Fortunately, unlike at Hennessy, the wind didn't gust very high, only around 25 mph. No power outage.

At least you're not south-central OK.

We went from green to brown in a matter of days.... I have cracks in my clay that will soon rival the Grand Canyon.

One of my friends moved to Austin 3-4 years ago after about a decade in SoCal.

I traded messages with her yesterday and she said their neighborhood has a pool but it's too hot to even go over there. She seemed legitimately depressed. The newness of 'we were able to buy a house!' has long worn off.

I lived in Dallas one summer and it did seem significantly worse than OKC, and that's saying something.

I was in Dallas over the weekend and it was like hell on earth. Awful. Even in the shade it felt like you were baking in an oven, and much of the vegetation was burned to a crisp, even in the fancy nabes like Highland Park.

Texas may become uninhabitable with climate change. DFW is already strained for water resources and the ATX-SAT megalopolis is going to further strain it.

^

A friend of mine was in Austin this weekend.

It was 109. And that's not dry desert heat.


Most of Texas does feel considerably more uncomfortable in the summer than Oklahoma, and that's saying something.

So next 10 days is heat dome again. Hopefully something comes and pushes it away again. I have been enjoying the last week when the rain came in.

I will offer up two pieces of optimism: (1) As we continue to move further away from our climatological temperature peak of late July, in theory it should become slightly easier day-over-day to dislodge the heat dome. (2) As the days continue to grow shorter, the heat tends to become slightly more bearable at night for those of us who still like to get out and about during the summertime months.

I will offer up two pieces of optimism: (1) As we continue to move further away from our climatological temperature peak of late July, in theory it should become slightly easier day-over-day to dislodge the heat dome. (2) As the days continue to grow shorter, the heat tends to become slightly more bearable at night for those of us who still like to get out and about during the summertime months.

Models are hinting that the high will shift further east toward the end of next week allowing another frontal passage around 8/25-26. Unlike the last heat dome that was centered over Texas this will be more over Missouri/Illinois so a good portion of the mid-South and lower Midwest will be hot and dry. This may actually mean some relief for Texas as unsettled tropical weather could head into the state on backside of the high.

Models are hinting that the high will shift further east toward the end of next week allowing another frontal passage around 8/25-26. Unlike the last heat dome that was centered over Texas this will be more over Missouri/Illinois so a good portion of the mid-South and lower Midwest will be hot and dry. This may actually mean some relief for Texas as unsettled tropical weather could head into the state on backside of the high.

Yep, noticed NWS Austin/San Antonio mentioning the chance for some tropical weather impacting Texas next week in their forecast discussion this morning. They are needing rain in the worst way down there with some large fires breaking out in their WUI recently.

Hot and dry for the next two weeks. This may actually be our longest dry spell of the summer for parts of central/northern OK. Unfortunately little relief for southern OK that didn't see the rainfall the rest of the state did last week

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023081612/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Hot and dry for the next two weeks. This may actually be our longest dry spell of the summer for parts of central/northern OK. Unfortunately little relief for southern OK that didn't see the rainfall the rest of the state did last week

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023081612/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Hopefully, this limits the severe weather. I am tired of that!

IF the high shifts further east that moisture plume could move closer to Oklahoma and also help many drought-stricken parts of Texas. It will be interesting to watch what, if any, impact Hurricane Fernanda has when it moves over California/Nevada next week. Also watching the Gulf as anything that forms will likely head into Texas.

^The storm to impact the Baja this weekend was actually just named TS Hilary. Could bring flooding rains from San Diego and up toward Vegas.

You’re right, Fernanda moved out to sea. Hilary could be an historic event for SoCal if it’s able to hold together. Either way it looks like some desert areas in need of rain will see a lot of it.

A couple models keep wanting to push the high further east later next week which would allow more tropical moisture to head up into OK. Right now it looks like NM/W TX will see that happen but could easily shift. The high breaks down and a couple fronts should be able to start making their way across the state after next weekend. Dry and hot until that happens.

This is not going to impact our weather at all, but since there's currently nothing going on here, do want to mention that the NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of California for the first time ever this morning. Shaping up to be a truly unprecedented event for them.

This is not going to impact our weather at all, but since there's currently nothing going on here, do want to mention that the NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of California for the first time ever this morning. Shaping up to be a truly unprecedented event for them.

Went from drought to having to worry about flooding in the course of a year.

This is not going to impact our weather at all, but since there's currently nothing going on here, do want to mention that the NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of California for the first time ever this morning. Shaping up to be a truly unprecedented event for them.

I'm just curious for an explanation. Why wouldn't residual moisture from Hilary follow the high pressure winds and hit OK from the NW?

I'm just curious for an explanation. Why wouldn't residual moisture from Hilary follow the high pressure winds and hit OK from the NW?

The high is too strong over the central U.S. All of the moisture from Hilary will move north over Nevada then up toward Wyoming and the Dakotas eventually to the Great Lakes.

There is still a chance the high moves south and east enough so that NW flow can return to Oklahoma but it won’t happen until next weekend. So two more weeks of hot and dry weather until the next pattern change. That is likely the end of the heat dome since these types of highs are not as common into September.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023081906/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

The nationwide view over the next week showing the impact of the high pressure dome and the remnants of Hilary enhancing rainfall across the West. This should keep wildfires down this fall which is great news for that region after a rough few years

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023081912/gfs_apcpn_us_26.png

Some climatology since there isn’t other weather to talk about for a couple weeks :wink: La Niña is exiting and El Niño is building which should influence weather across North America for the next 2 years, possibly longer. Looking at the chart below we are in a similar scenario as 2014. This included mild summers for several years. Rainfall was also abundant - 2015 and 2019 were some of the wettest years on record across Oklahoma. So while it’s not a guarantee, and it will still be hot, the next few summers should be “less hot”

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png

Some climatology since there isn’t other weather to talk about for a couple weeks :wink: La Niña is exiting and El Niño is building which should influence weather across North America for the next 2 years, possibly longer. Looking at the chart below we are in a similar scenario as 2014. This included mild summers for several years. Rainfall was also abundant - 2015 and 2019 were some of the wettest years on record across Oklahoma. So while it’s not a guarantee, and it will still be hot, the next few summers should be “less hot”

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png

These temps are horrific. And no end in sight!

I wonder if OU/OSU will reschedule to night games.

These temps are horrific. And no end in sight!

I wonder if OU/OSU will reschedule to night games.Nope. The networks set times. The schools have virtually no input. And the networks love 11am or 2pm starts for our teams.

Nope. The networks set times. The schools have virtually no input. And the networks love 11am or 2pm starts for our teams.

That's too bad.

A heat related tragedy is due to happen in these conditions.

That's too bad.

A heat related tragedy is due to happen in these conditions.

Temperatures are predicted to go down considerably by the weekend of the first games. I have been to many games in Norman with high temperatures. I can assure you they will have medical people at the ready to deal with problems.

Labor Day weekend games in Norman/Stillwater are typically hot and sticky. In fact most of the September games are similar but you start seeing more cold fronts like we saw last week that knock down temps/humidity and bring more rainfall especially toward late-September. September and October are the 3rd and 4th wettest months of the year after May/June.

Labor Day weekend games in Norman/Stillwater are typically hot and sticky. In fact most of the September games are similar but you start seeing more cold fronts like we saw last week that knock down temps/humidity and bring more rainfall especially toward late-September. September and October are the 3rd and 4th wettest months of the year after May/June.

Fortunately, the first 3 OSU games won't be played during the afternoon.

I just went to Wyoming for the weekend and the weather was absolutely glorious. Really not looking forward to coming back to this heat dome.

I just went to Wyoming for the weekend and the weather was absolutely glorious. Really not looking forward to coming back to this heat dome.

I hosted my high school class reunion last night at the Park House event center in the Myriad Gardens. It's an absolutely gorgeous setting and we had about 175 in attendance.

You can actually take drinks into the park as long as there is no glass, so my thought was that people would wander around at some point but the heat was absurd. So much so that not many even bothered with the beautiful patio. It was cool though because the Crystal Bridge was lit up in orange in our honor (I went to Putnam City).

We had to clear out of there by 11 PM so I arranged with Flint to host an after-party on their beautiful patio, even though the inside is completely torn up for a remodel. We had a big crew over there until closing at 1:30 AM and it was still plenty hot but manageable.

As you can imagine, when I organize these things every 5 years I try to choose a place that shows off OKC, not only because we have lots of people coming from out of town, but also for the residents to take in all the great changes. It's so fun to see downtown through their eyes. A bunch of people stayed at The National, the Colcord, the Omni and other downtown hotels; many were locals opting for a staycation.

Despite the record heat we still had a fabulous time. And even though I was consumed all night I made it a point to stop and take a look around and really appreciate our City.

Our big 50-year celebration is now only 5 years away and I'm trying to think through where we might do it. If we are really lucky, maybe the Dream Hotel tower will be open by then. For our 35-year reunion the timing was such that we were one of the first events on the 50th floor of Devon Tower, and that would be one for us to top!

Pete, I always forget we’re of the same alma mater.

Forecast models are still showing the possibility of a storm complex heading south from KS into OK on Sunday with temps back into the 80’s. Then more unsettled weather the following week and especially into Labor Day weekend. So hang in there relief is coming!

CMC model showing possible MCS moving south into OK on Sunday 8/27
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023082100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_27.png

This day in history on Aug. 22, 2022, the high only got to 81 in my backyard. But today, the high is going to be around 102! My data records go back to 2012 with wunderground and there hasn't been a hotter Aug. 21 since then.

https://stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (https://stillwaterweather.com/)

Station summary with history: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KOKSTILL4/graph/2022-08-21/2022-08-21/daily

Austin TX hit 45 consecutive days of breaking 100F today. The previous record was in 2011 with 27 days. The record making may be stopped tomorrow (Tuesday) due to cloud cover from nearby tropical system that will be moving through extreme S TX.

Austin TX hit 45 consecutive days of breaking 100F today. The previous record was in 2011 with 27 days. The record making may be stopped tomorrow (Tuesday) due to cloud cover from nearby tropical system that will be moving through extreme S TX.

Oof. 100+ in Austin is more brutal than it is here, that's for sure.

^My daughter is in Austin and LOVES IT ….but this summer there has been brutal!

This day in history on Aug. 22, 2022, the high only got to 81 in my backyard. But today, the high is going to be around 102! My data records go back to 2012 with wunderground and there hasn't been a hotter Aug. 21 since then.

https://stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (https://stillwaterweather.com/)

Station summary with history: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KOKSTILL4/graph/2022-08-21/2022-08-21/daily

We had a heavy thunderstorm in Tulsa the day before on 8/21/22. I remember it being extremely hot and humid for weeks up until then so the rain was most welcome! Similar to the respite we had a week ago

The Mesonet station in Jay set a couple of all-time records today...highest dewpoint in Mesonet history at 85.1 degrees and highest heat index in Mesonet history at 126.7 degrees.

Starting to feel reasonably confident in 1-3 days with lows in the upper 60's, highs in the upper 80's, and 20-30% precipitation chances. This would be centered around the Sunday-Wednesday timeframe. However, it looks to trend back towards warmer/drier conditions by Labor Day Weekend. Certainly not expecting any notable precipitation amounts even with the pattern change, so unfortunately the drought areas which are currently limited to North Central and Southwest Oklahoma may continue to expand closer to the Metro.

EURO forecasted rain totals through Monday. There will be scattered thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday but they will not be widespread and will favor eastern OK. Temps will be back in the upper 80’s though

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023082406/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_30.png

Drought state wide went from 12.75% last week to 28.14% this week ..


1 year ago it was 98.64%


only 8% is severe or worse year ago 89.68 was severe or worse ..

Interesting map showing how drier air has been moving in this past week and also the effect the forests/trees (and recent rains) in eastern OK have on surface dewpoints. Jay had an all-time record high dewpoint of 85 on Monday.

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/370395293_700922545188098_5636045561981931625_n.jp g?stp=dst-jpg_p843x403&_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5614bc&_nc_ohc=gsbNqPYOLXwAX_fVQFD&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=00_AfDG3y6nX2jvG-TCvfM9kBHwFENw-z2v08Q4m0cbr0coog&oe=64EC694A

Brief cooldown coming Sunday into Tuesday. Best shot at thunderstorms is across N OK.

But then the burners get turned back to high. With the drought taking back control of the region, I think we could see some record setting highs in OKC the first couple weeks of September.

Brief cooldown coming Sunday into Tuesday. Best shot at thunderstorms is across N OK.

But then the burners get turned back to high. With the drought taking back control of the region, I think we could see some record setting highs in OKC the first couple weeks of September.

Yep be thankful for whatever you get rainfall-wise this weekend because it could be a couple weeks of dry weather afterward
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

A pattern change is likely though starting the second week of September and potentially lasting through the end of the month that could bring cooler temps and more rainfall, which would be more typical September weather in Oklahoma
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

As for the drought it's not predicted to come back due to the plentiful summer rains across much of Oklahoma and the likelihood of typical fall rainfall - though current dry areas in north-central OK and along the Red River will need some help to get fully out of drought and things are looking continually bleak in Texas. Texas could be in major trouble if they don't see a tropical system in the next couple months.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

Southwest Oklahoma. That is a pen!s.

Edit: wow we really can’t say that word on this site? What a joke.

Austin TX hit 45 consecutive days of breaking 100F today. The previous record was in 2011 with 27 days. The record making may be stopped tomorrow (Tuesday) due to cloud cover from nearby tropical system that will be moving through extreme S TX.

Hell on earth.

A few lucky locations in south-central OK picked up some decent rainfall yesterday. Most areas across the state were dry. Temps will be in the upper80’s/lower 90’s this week which will feel great. Unfortunately no rainfall in the forecast for the next two weeks until the pattern changes mid-September.

Heat dome comes back the end of the week huh? I hope it is the last of the year.

Heat dome comes back the end of the week huh? I hope it is the last of the year.

Yeah but it looks to be short-lived and not quite as hot - some areas may not even break 100.

The next chance of rainfall arrives on Wednesday/Thursday 9/6-7 as a front sags south as the high retreats
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_35.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_39.png

Getting crispy again especially across south-central OK. At least another week until moisture returns

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png?cache_bust=169332 0258892

Should move up the start of the State Fair by a week in order to end the drought earlier.

Should move up the start of the State Fair by a week in order to end the drought earlier.

Like clockwork just like the arts festival

Even with the current dry conditions overall the state is in much better shape right now vs this time last year. Especially the NW and Panhandle areas. If we get into our typical fall rainfall pattern which is likely with El Niño building we should be in even better shape heading into the drier winter months.

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delseason_rain.current.png?cache_bust=169332879874 6

This is probably better suited to another thread, but this article in the NYT is quite an eye opener.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/28/climate/groundwater-drying-climate-change.html