Currently dying overnight MCS is moving through NC into NE OK. The southern edge is the most active with new development and is attempting to expand down into C OK. At least it will provide some cloud cover to keep temperatures in check this morning.

We should have more of the same development this afternoon that will form into another MCS. Likely impacting more of the state late Wed into Thurs AM.


SPC has a broad Slight Risk across basically all of the central plains for this action.

OKC needs to get some rain. We keep missing it by like, 40 miles. If not, drought will return. With a vengeance, given El Nino returning with higher Temps.

The weather this week looks nice: Upper 80's to low 90's with at least small chance of rain on a few days. That's better than most July's.

The weather this week looks nice: Upper 80's to low 90's with at least small chance of rain on a few days. That's better than most July's.

This weather is amazing compared to this time last year. Good rain chances across the state this week (especially the drought-stricken northern parts) before serious heat/humidity returns next week

Cluster of storms up across SE CO/SW KS is forecast to become large MCS overnight and expand down to the SE into OK by morning hours. Damaging wind and localized flash flood is the main threats.

Cluster of storms up across SE CO/SW KS is forecast to become large MCS overnight and expand down to the SE into OK by morning hours. Damaging wind and localized flash flood is the main threats.

I predict a bust. Because the rain out ahead of it isn't holding up well. Only got .02" from it. And those large rain amounts NWS is predicting are unbelievable. But won't mind being proven wrong.

Wow, really a nice, steady rain right now at my house.

We've been incredibly lucky thus far this spring and summer.

Southeast OKC getting missed again. As usual.

We're going to have green grass in August...this is as wet as late as I ever remember in Oklahoma.

We're going to have green grass in August...this is as wet as late as I ever remember in Oklahoma.

Yes, this is likely to go down as the best Spring-Summer stretch for most of C and W OK in the last decade.

The current MCS this morning is moving out and will give-way for a wonderful afternoon. Then we do it all again late tonight into Friday morning with another MCS. Models are suggesting this same pattern repeating through Sunday. Even some action Tuesday morning showing up.

Friday morning:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2023070612/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_26.png

. . . almost 3/4" in my gauge and still coming down! (Meridian/NW 36th) Slow, glorious, soaking rain!!

Southeast OKC getting missed again. As usual.

I was right to some extent about this major rain event being a bust. Stillwater area only got around .15" rain overnight. NWS predicted 1to 2 in. overnight. For today, it had been 2 to 3" but now revised to 3/4 to 1". For tonight, new rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

As usual, it's always amazing how some places get a lot more rain. Anyway, my prediction of a bust wasn't as widespread as I thought it would be, certainly not on the same scale as about two weeks ago when the NWS predicted the Texas heatwave would dramatically surge across the rest of the Oklahoma with highs up to around 108. I was sure skeptical about that. As it turned out, highs were only around 98. Much of Oklahoma still hasn't gone over 100, including my thermometer.

Has weather gotten yet harder to forecast accurately, possibly due to climate change, or meteorologists less competent? Or too much reliance on computer projections and models by TV weather people for the drama? Emily Sutton showed Stillwater is going to get over 3" for the second highest amount in the state. As usual, I'll believe it when I see it.

I was right to some extent about this major rain event being a bust. Stillwater area only got around .15" rain overnight. NWS predicted 1to 2 in. overnight. For today, it had been 2 to 3" but now revised to 3/4 to 1". For tonight, new rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

As usual, it's always amazing how some places get a lot more rain. Anyway, my prediction of a bust wasn't as widespread as I thought it would be, certainly not on the same scale as about two weeks ago when the NWS predicted the Texas heatwave would dramatically surge across the rest of the Oklahoma with highs up to around 108. I was sure skeptical about that. As it turned out, highs were only around 98. Much of Oklahoma still hasn't gone over 100, including my thermometer.

Has weather gotten yet harder to forecast accurately, possibly due to climate change, or meteorologists less competent? Or too much reliance on computer projections and models by TV weather people for the drama? Emily Sutton showed Stillwater is going to get over 3" for the second highest amount in the state. As usual, I'll believe it when I see it.

18109

Looks pretty accurate to me. I don’t see what you’re complaining about. Maybe you should ask Emily to make her forecasted amounts to the hundredth of an inch so your bet against them even more.

2" here from the morning rains.

2" here from the morning rains.

Thank you. Your rain gauge for me is the most accurate reflection of what happened at my house and that's exactly what I had predicted.

I think I know where you live and your house is 3 miles due east of mine measured with Find Lot Size site. I have 2 rain gauges, one in the front and one in the back and they usually are within 1/8" of each other. Funny the one in the back by my tomato plants lately when there is at least 1" in it I find a wasp in it drowning. Today there are 2 wasps in it drowning.

18109

Looks pretty accurate to me. I don’t see what you’re complaining about. Maybe you should ask Emily to make her forecasted amounts to the hundredth of an inch so your bet against them even more.

The map simply proves me part right. North central Oklahoma got little more than sprinkles just as I predicted, or in other words, a BUST! The atmosphere there must have been too stable as the main storm system entered it.

You must not be an Emily Sutton fan. She does use a computer model to project to the hundredth inch along with Mike Morgan. I doubt they will ever give up looking ridiculous doing that. No. 1 McAlester is projected to get 4". I didn't bother remembering exact amounts.

I'm still an Emily Sutton fan. She kills doing "Over the Rainbow".


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyThmSqT6UQ

The map simply proves me part right. North central Oklahoma got little more than sprinkles just as I predicted, or in other words, a BUST! The atmosphere there must have been too stable as the main storm system entered it.

You must not be an Emily Sutton fan. She does use a computer model to project to the hundredth inch along with Mike Morgan. I doubt they will ever give up looking ridiculous doing that. No. 1 McAlester is projected to get 4". I didn't bother remembering exact amounts.

Your area should do well with the next MCS and again Saturday. Most of northern OK should end up with at least 2"+ before the end of the weekend

These storm complexes are incredibly difficult to forecast. And you need to keep in mind that the TV mets are just showing computer model forecasts or perhaps a conglomerate of several. These models obviously differ wildly from run-to-run and model-to-model. Watching a 10pm news cast where a local met is showing 1 model and expecting to see that amount in your Stillwater backyard is just not realistic.

Look for trends, especially once the storms begin to take shape - even when they're hundreds of miles away. You can often see the overall development pattern and storm movement once these MCSes begin to form. Then from there, look ahead and check out the environment they are moving into. There is no perfect science for any one person's location.

Since moving back to OKC, I must admit that July rains have been great! Lots of lush lawns and full shrubs. Our trees and flowers at my condo grounds look fantastic! This summer has been very bearable!

This morning’s MCS is swinging in from the WNW right now. The strongest storms and associated wind gusts is with south end which is taking aim on the W side of OKC. If this intensity remains intact, you can expect the storms to have 45-60MPH gusts.

The portion of the line coming into OKC is technically severe right now (~7:31am). However, the winds measured on nearby Mesonet stations only show up to 40mph.

Looks like this will largely be another nice morning drink.

It's black as night at my house.

Something wicked this way comes.

Soaked today. Rain in July. I love it.

Since moving back to OKC, I must admit that July rains have been great! Lots of lush lawns and full shrubs. Our trees and flowers at my condo grounds look fantastic! This summer has been very bearable!

*Too* lush, lol! I've needed to mow since Wed, but couldn't that day and now it looks like it'll be at least Mon before I can, going to be slow-going through the jungle it's become...

Soaked today. Rain in July. I love it.

No kidding, same here! I've recorded just a hair under 3" of rain so far this month at my place on the Southside - with over half of that coming down yesterday alone (1.67"). If NWS's forecast verifies, by the end of this weekend I'll have had a wetter July than June!

About 7/8" so far today. And it must have been windy. I had to retrieve my trash cans that were at the curb 3 houses to the east of me. Fortunately Warr Acres trash collectors come really early so they were empty.

If the weekend forecast verifies many areas should be back to normal, and major improvements in perennially dry Osage/Washington/Nowata counties. Bartlesville is still in Stage 3 water restrictions so any rain there and into SE Kansas is most welcome. Amazing to be seeing this type of system in almost mid-July. Seeing 2”+ totals in July in the Panhandle is almost unheard of

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delgrowingseason_rain.current.png?cache_bust=16887 48380065

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023070712/gfs_apcpn_scus_19.png

The map simply proves me part right. North central Oklahoma got little more than sprinkles just as I predicted, or in other words, a BUST! The atmosphere there must have been too stable as the main storm system entered it.

You must not be an Emily Sutton fan. She does use a computer model to project to the hundredth inch along with Mike Morgan. I doubt they will ever give up looking ridiculous doing that. No. 1 McAlester is projected to get 4". I didn't bother remembering exact amounts.

I'm still an Emily Sutton fan. She kills doing "Over the Rainbow".


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyThmSqT6UQ

Wow! She is so talented and lovely.

We got about 1 1/4 inch yesterday and 3/4 inch this morning. And the guys fertilized a few days ago. Our grass looks amazing. I'm just glad I don't mow it!

Wow! She is so talented and lovely.Yes......yes she is.

The next MCS is already formed in the TX PH. However, it should slowly lose steam tonight as it travels deeper into OK as the airmass here across C OK is more stable. We’ll have to watch radar trends tonight.

Airmass is stable but the dewpoints have rebounded nicely. Will be curious if that’s enough to sustain the MCS.

Ch 4 and 5 6:00 weather both said OKC will likely get hammered with strong winds when the storms roll through around 10;00.

Ch 4 and 5 6:00 weather both said OKC will likely get hammered with strong winds when the storms roll through around 10;00.

It just diminished to light rain when it arrived in Stillwater. More rain may be coming but it's way out in the panhandle.

These have been strange storms. Not really a single line but multiple lines that pulse up then diminish so the rainfall isn’t as widespread as a typical MCS, and thus harder to forecast.

For example during last nights storm parts of south Tulsa had over an inch of rain and high winds but midtown Tulsa only had sprinkles.

It looks like on this latest round tonight that Stillwater gets the weakened part of it again or the doughnut hole, but OKC and to the west may get some good rains of over an inch, if things hold up. A large part of the northwest already got that much.

Pretty crazy storm 2-3 miles north of Downtown right now. SW Metro looks to be getting hit particularly hard at the moment.

Holy cow, I must have received at least 4 inches of rain last night.

What a crazy spring and early summer.

Almost 9 inches this week at my house.

Should have emptied my rain gauge! Overflowing!

Hope you guys have been enjoying this rain because the heat dome comes back with a vengeance here in a couple of weeks. The 100’s become the norm on the GFS two weeks out. Let’s hope that changes. Would be nice to get through most of July without a major heat wave here.

We got at least 3.5 inches at our house. Will Rogers got 3.23 in the last six hours.

Hope you guys have been enjoying this rain because the heat dome comes back with a vengeance here in a couple of weeks. The 100’s become the norm on the GFS two weeks out. Let’s hope that changes. Would be nice to get through most of July without a major heat wave here.

This week looks pretty typical for July - low to mid-90’s with high humidity. Even a couple more rain chances especially next weekend. Then the heat dome returns - forecasted highs for 7/20:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023070906/gfs_T2m_scus_43.png

Hope you guys have been enjoying this rain because the heat dome comes back with a vengeance here in a couple of weeks. The 100’s become the norm on the GFS two weeks out. Let’s hope that changes. Would be nice to get through most of July without a major heat wave here.

Good luck with that

I barely heard the rain last night. Slept through most of it. I was shocked when I just now checked my rain gauges. The one in the front yard had 5" and the one in the back yard had 4 3/4".

I didn't even know it rained. I had drawn about an inch of water out of the pool because it was almost to the top of the skimmer. Went out this morning and it was 4" higher - and 1" above the top of the skimmer. Just wild.

Lake Hefner has picked up A FOOT in the past three days.

18127

Lake Hefner has picked up A FOOT in the past three days.

18127

Thanks for sharing that.

I'm not surprised. I live nearby and I can't recall ever getting that much rain in one day; and the ground was already saturated.

And the kicker is …..ITS JULY!:)

My guestimate was right. Stillwater from being in the weak part got mostly between .5 and .75", while OKC and counties to the west of there got well over an inch with 2 plus inches being common. Stillwater area has had around 2.5-3" of rain for July. At least it's been enough to nearly saturate the soil and keep the grass bright green.

Hope you guys have been enjoying this rain because the heat dome comes back with a vengeance here in a couple of weeks. The 100’s become the norm on the GFS two weeks out. Let’s hope that changes. Would be nice to get through most of July without a major heat wave here.

The 110 degree Texas heat dome that was supposed to dramatically expand to include all of Oklahoma never did, so, yes, let's hope this new talk of a heat dome is wrong, too.

The 110 degree Texas heat dome that was supposed to dramatically expand to include all of Oklahoma never did, so, yes, let's hope this new talk of a heat dome is wrong, too.
Yes please! Has OKC hit 100 in the last 2 summers?

Yes please! Has OKC hit 100 in the last 2 summers?

Last summer was one of the hotter summers in OKC history, something like 20-25 triple-digit highs (off the top of my head). 2021 was much cooler, very similar to how this summer has been so far (though without the near-constant organized thunderstorm activity).

Last summer was one of the hotter summers in OKC history, something like 20-25 triple-digit highs (off the top of my head). 2021 was much cooler, very similar to how this summer has been so far (though without the near-constant organized thunderstorm activity).Actually 27. I didn't remember last summer being hot but then again I can't tell you what I had for lunch yesterday.

Last night I slept through anything that did happen. I was around I40 & Rockwell this afternoon. There's leaves, twigs and all kinds of small debris all over the streets. Limbs fallen out of trees. The H-D dealer had a tent event yesterday and the tent is caved in and all twisted up. When I got home I checked the rain gauge and we got 3 1/2 inches. I didn't even know it rained.

^

It woke me up (which is saying something) and it was coming down like I've never seen around 3 AM.

Not a ton of loud thunder, just crazy monsoon rain.

Last summer was brutal as far as temps and dry weather goes. Extremely dry spring and summer. It was so dry it forced me to finally fix my well pump so I could water my 2/3 acre back yard which I normally never do. The hot temps started in June. I had some of the largest cracks in the ground I've ever seen. The ground shrunk so bad it popped the cap off one of my sewer clean out access covers. About the worst tomato crop I've had in years.

Last summer it didn’t rain from early June until late August. It was incredibly dry and hot.

^

It woke me up (which is saying something) and it was coming down like I've never seen around 3 AM.

Not a ton of loud thunder, just crazy monsoon rain.

The peak rainfall rate my weather station measured was 6.14" per hour. It was the heaviest rain I've seen in quite some time and it flooded my street so badly that water came up to the garage door. None got in, thankfully, but that was WILD. In total I picked up just a hair under 3.2" of rain at my place 1.5mi west of Crossroads.