I don't want to hear anything more about a mild spring.

Temps have been higher than average and the NWS is now showing that starting next Thursday, we will be in the high 90s for at least the following 7 days.

All this before the official start of summer.

I disagree. March was much below average, the last 1/2 of April was below average and the last 2/3 of may was below average temps. It has been a mi;d spring.

https://weatherspark.com/h/s/8231/2023/0/Historical-Weather-Spring-2023-in-Oklahoma-City-Oklahoma-United-States#Figures-Temperature

https://twitter.com/NbergWX/status/1666543746228297731?s=20 This could be a huge event from Oklahoma to the East. Oklahoma area to start the week and mid south middle to end of the week. Most of May was right on average Temperature wise.

Pouring down rain again here 39th and Meridian area. If this daily rain doesn't stop it's going to be a no mow June for me. I have a yard that several days to dry out enough to mow once the rain stops.

Man, SE OKC keeps getting missed by ALL of these storms. Not a drop in a while, yet the west Metro gets poured on.

Saturday looks like a morning MCS hail/wind threat across the state that will quickly move ESE. Then late that afternoon a hail threat will emerge across the same areas with focus being along outflow boundary from the AM storms.

OKC got very close today, but will likely touch 90F tomorrow (Friday) for the first time this season.

Models have backed off of Saturday afternoon storms. But OKC will likely still see severe storms in the morning. Will know more tomorrow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2023060818/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_39.png

Models still hinting at multiple MCS events across OK starting this weekend and into next week. These are great widespread rainfall producers so hopefully that pans out. Drier weather incoming on the back side of a possible tropical system affecting the eastern Gulf the following week.

OKC got very close today, but will likely touch 90F tomorrow (Friday) for the first time this season.


over a month later then average (may 6th)

Pre-emptive heads up for everyone to get outside and enjoy what should be some beautiful weather on Monday, as that could well be our last day with highs in the lower 80's and dewpoints in the 50's until whenever the first notable cold front moves through in September.

HRRR snapshot of late-night storm complex that will fly from NW to SE. Damaging wind and hail threat will be primary.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023060912/fv3-hires_ref_frzn_scus_21.png

Feel like the models are really starting to ramp tomorrow down quite a bit. Some are showing almost no impact to the okc area and the HRRR seems to be showing som possible interference from storms that fire on an outflow boundary coming out of SW Oklahoma.

Feel like the models are really starting to ramp tomorrow down quite a bit. Some are showing almost no impact to the okc area and the HRRR seems to be showing som possible interference from storms that fire on an outflow boundary coming out of SW Oklahoma.

Tomorrow afternoon's threat should be focused on the DFW Metroplex. We should still get an area of storms moving through around sunrise tomorrow but that is obviously not a particularly favorable time period of the day for severe weather. Still, would expect there to be a marginal wind/hail threat.

The 6/13-6/14 timeframe is also looking quite muddled in terms of convective evolution now. Might end up seeing the greatest threat unfold to our north, though there is still more than enough time for that to change.

Short-range models are mostly showing tomorrow morning's convection to be fairly disorganized.

Tuesday or Wednesday are possible days next week but the models don't agree go figure and where are systems going to set up. This is why SPC probably hasn't highlighted anything for next week. Might be more a day before or morning of before we will know for sure what will happen those days.

Mother nature again skipping over OKC. Frustrating. We still need a lot more rain.

OKC got very close today, but will likely touch 90F tomorrow (Friday) for the first time this season.


Interesting how long OKC is taking to get to 90 or higher, compared to Stillwater. Stillwater got its first 90 on April 3. May got up to 95. Like April, only one May day got to the 90s. On June 8, it got to 92. June 9 was 95.

Huge rainfall today at my house, well over an inch.

What a great surprise.

My gauge has almost 2 inches far NW OKC. Strong winds in the middle of the night. Pool clean-up time!

2 1/4" here.

I was hoping to see some higher totals from the MCS. Another one will be coming through on Tuesday and again next Saturday. MCS season is upon us :)

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png?cache_bust=1686415559536

I saw the intersection of NW34 and Hammond on the news this morning. Because the water was 3 to 4 feet deep. My first wife and I lived on the NW corner from '79 to '85. It flooded back then and obviously still does.

I was hoping to see some higher totals from the MCS. Another one will be coming through on Tuesday and again next Saturday. MCS season is upon us :)

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png?cache_bust=1686415559536

There are so few rain stations in their system that their maps often miss huge variances in the same county.

Lots of places around OKC got well over an inch and maybe two and yet that graphic shows a max of .63.

There are so few rain stations in their system that their maps often miss huge variances in the same county.

Lots of places around OKC got well over an inch and maybe two and yet that graphic shows a max of .63.

Even at my place 4 miles east of WRWA, we got more than that - 0.72". Definitely happy with what we got, though it was definitely odd seeing pea-size hail come down at 7am.

Some big time storms possible tomorrow (Sunday) for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle with a storm or too possibly moving into western Oklahoma. As far as the metro goes storms probably move in overnight and clear the rest of the day with this system with severe weather western and possibly eastern Oklahoma.

We used 400 KWHs less electricity this billing period than same period one year ago I would say mainly because if the cooler temps in May than last year. Usage for the entire spring is less than a year ago. Natural gas usage was up slightly for the spring months though. Combining both, total energy usage was still less.

Messy pattern the next couple days the jet stream that was supposed to bring severe weather to the plains has pushed way down in the southern Texas and Louisiana. Computer model showing storms tonight nothing severe and then some possible storms in southern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon.

Messy pattern the next couple days the jet stream that was supposed to bring severe weather to the plains has pushed way down in the southern Texas and Louisiana. Computer model showing storms tonight nothing severe and then some possible storms in southern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon.

Be thankful if your yard gets rain this week. It looks like a period of dry and very hot weather toward the third week of June. Talking 100+ across the state

Not to pick on Mesonet again, but we had three inches of rain overnight Friday/Saturday. We had to release three inches of water from the pool at least. Several hours of on-again, off-again sheets of rain. We live in Northwest OKC. The rain was coming down so hard the NWS issued a flood advisory, and in the text of the advisory stated, "One to two inches of rain have fallen, with another inch projected to fall."

The mesonet numbers at the recording stations the next morning were like .69, .43, etc. Interestingly, both airports registered an inch or less.

I guess it's too hard to measure rainfall across a city as big in land area as OKC but I'm always surprised by the discrepancy in numbers between mesonet and NWS.

I need to buy a rain gauge because I can't find accurate rainfall info otherwise.

I’d love to see the Mesonet double its reporting stations but until that happens it’s best for showing trends not exact amounts. It doesn’t do well with summer isolated pop up storms and also doesn’t accurately show snowfall totals in the higher terrain areas across SE OK

I’d love to see the Mesonet double its reporting stations but until that happens it’s best for showing trends not exact amounts. It doesn’t do well with summer isolated pop up storms and also doesn’t accurately show snowfall totals in the higher terrain areas across SE OK

Wunderground has the biggest weather reporting network. Is it not big enough to catch the biggest rainfall amounts of a storm system or with isolated pup-up storms?

https://www.acurite.com/shop-all/weather-instruments/weather-stations/pro-weather-station-with-direct-to-wi-fi-display.html?gad=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw4ZWkBhA4EiwAVJXwqcFg9q5sCcCa5CLcusDr JIVrmMBQTMeKWuGUkoW9lHyKVkREU3K5HBoC6iYQAvD_BwE A few others on sale for father's day. I have had one for about 7 years now. Only thing is the wind isn't very good but rainfall temp humidity all good.

This is just unbelievable considering how dry the western half of the state was all winter into spring. Such an interesting reversal with the eastern counties now below average for rainfall.

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.720hr.png?cache_bust=1686581321025

The NWS forecast for Stillwater tonight is complex. Yet, new rainfall amounts only less than a tenth of an inch possible. I'm not surprised. The light sprinkles this afternoon that didn't get any heavier didn't stop me from finishing mowing and edging the lawn. But sprinkles quit and sun is now out.

NWS forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 10pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10pm and 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 2am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2am and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Intermittent passing showers will continue to dwindle down this evening. If the stuff out in CO can keep steam, there may be a shot at some rain/storms later tonight into tomorrow morning, but the airmass is pretty stabilized. Beautiful weather the new couple days before we heat up and get real muggy heading into the weekend.

https://www.acurite.com/shop-all/weather-instruments/weather-stations/pro-weather-station-with-direct-to-wi-fi-display.html?gad=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw4ZWkBhA4EiwAVJXwqcFg9q5sCcCa5CLcusDr JIVrmMBQTMeKWuGUkoW9lHyKVkREU3K5HBoC6iYQAvD_BwE A few others on sale for father's day. I have had one for about 7 years now. Only thing is the wind isn't very good but rainfall temp humidity all good.

That Acurite Iris 5-in-1 model is not a bad option, but I personally prefer the AmbientWeather stations; I've had an Ambient WS-2902C (https://ambientweather.com/ws-2902-smart-weather-station) for about a year and a half now and have been thoroughly pleased with it. It can talk to a number of crowdsourced weather platforms, including the Ambient Weather Network, Wunderground, and PWSweather, too. It also has more options for expansion with additional sensors, although some of them (like the PM2.5 air quality sensor) are only supported as pass-thru sensors to ambientweather.net (i.e. they won't be shown on the console that comes with it). The AmbientWeather station setups are super customizable. Definitely worth a look if you're considering getting a personal weather station.

The Ambient Weather network is pretty nice (here is the page for my station (https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/83169cf33cf334e2a018ad32fed108ff), for example), but I plan to also connect it into Wunderground too for their better interface.

^

Very nice!

Thanks for the review and recommendation.

^

Very nice!

Thanks for the review and recommendation.

I love my Ambient Weather station... and have purchased them for my father and my father-in-law as well (good Christmas gifts a couple years ago).

On the weather station front Davis Weather stations are the best but they are also very expensive. But if your willing to spend the money or have the money go with Davis. https://www.davisinstruments.com/

Forecast models are attempting to develop one last small MCS tonight coming out of CO and into the TX PH. Best guess on track puts it just missing C OK to the SW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023061312/fv3-hires_ref_frzn_scus_15.png

That would be fine with me if it misses OKC Especially NW OKC. My yard is so water logged that when I walk across it water oozes out of the ground.

https://twitter.com/ConvChronicles/status/1668743193326759942?s=20 Then non hyped events always seem to be the ones that produce the most. JS

Today might have been the supercell of the year forming in the far west Panhandle, then tracking SE through the entirety of the TX Panhandle before re-emerging in far SW Oklahoma. 6+ hours of severe weather reports.

SPC now has slight risk for the Northern half of Oklahoma on Thursday. Looking at morning computer runs would not be shocked if that gets expanded farther south. And the reason I said no hype is because News 9 last night at 10:00 p.m. weather only had a 20% chance and David didn't even talk about Thursday. Flipped over to channel 4 and Morgan really didn't talk about it either but he had a 50% chance.

12z HRRR looking frisky for tomorrow evening.

12z HRRR looking frisky for tomorrow evening.

Likely going to see SPC upgrade most of the state to Slight Risk for Thursday. Perhaps a corridor of Enhanced Risk out in W OK where storms would begin more isolated.

The common theme of these MCSes lately has been to start as supercells, then upscale into a cluster of storms with some remnant embedded supercell structure. This is going to be initial large hail threat, outside tornado threat, then emphasis on severe wind threat.

EDIT: Also going to note that SPC is outlining 15% probability of severe risk for Saturday evening across KS and into N OK. Latest model data also suggesting a southern expansion of this threat. So expect more of the same for Saturday.

SPC going with a high-end Slight Risk for the Metro tomorrow. 5% tornado, 15% hatched hail/wind. Mentions a potential upgrade to Enhanced in the discussion.

Yep days that are not hyped up for a week are always the worst days

Eww. Summer is making a comeback next week, and it’s looking like the death ridge is going to try and push up into Oklahoma here in a couple of weeks.

Seems like we will likely top out in the mid-upper 90's with this particular ridge as it should stay centered to our south. It is unfortunately looking to be a fairly humid heat due to the southeasterly flow, though. Texas is going to roast.

Pretty much pulling up Tornado soundings for anywhere I click in Western Oklahoma tomorrow evening. Let's hope they all gel together and are not individual storms

90/65 T/TD spreads are not particularly ideal for tornadoes, fortunately. Would think tomorrow evening will be a significant wind threat for the Metro first and foremost, particularly as the storms should organize into some sort of QLCS by the time they reach the I-35 corridor.

But it looks like the overnight lows stay in the low 70s for at least the next 10 days. It's when the lows never dip below the 80s that it really gets oppressive.

Yep days that are not hyped up for a week are always the worst daysFor once I actually hope you're right. Mike Morgan just predicted a 90% chance of strong storms tomorrow afternoon/evening with "strong winds" and "huge hail". Not much more hype than that. Even if he's pretty much the only one predicting such severe storms so far.

Ch 5 6:00 pm telecast predicted the storms to hit the metro tomorrow night around 9-10:00 PM

90/65 T/TD spreads are not particularly ideal for tornadoes, fortunately. Would think tomorrow evening will be a significant wind threat for the Metro first and foremost, particularly as the storms should organize into some sort of QLCS by the time they reach the I-35 corridor.

Agree something that needs to be watched closely tomorrow is the dew point temperature and the air temperature. If they're closer together say 83 and 70 we're going to have problems especially Western Oklahoma. For those wondering when you have a big spread between your temperature and dew point you get a higher cloud base. Typically much more hail. Much harder to get tornadoes with high cloud base

SPC went right for it with the moderate risk. I figured enhance at first and then moderate later but nope they went for it.

SPC now has slight risk for the Northern half of Oklahoma on Thursday. Looking at morning computer runs would not be shocked if that gets expanded farther south. And the reason I said no hype is because News 9 last night at 10:00 p.m. weather only had a 20% chance and David didn't even talk about Thursday. Flipped over to channel 4 and Morgan really didn't talk about it either but he had a 50% chance.

Mike Morgan as of the latest of his weather has changed his mind and as always sensationalizes the weather too much. His worst sensational Thursday weather will likely take place south of OKC. I'm sure not complaining about it.

Ok, everyone should take a deep breath. Will there be storms? Yes. Will there be a tornado or two? Possibly? Is this going to be a major tornado outbreak (like some have been hyping for over a week now)? Not likely.

This is going to be a wind and hail maker for OKC. The biggest threat for the bad stuff is obviously out west, but those storms will line out as per usual for this time of year. I’m sure the supercell structure will be imbedded in the line and I wouldn’t be surprised if a remnant spin up or two happens in our area, but the impacts from those are pretty minimal. Just be aware storms will come in. They’ll be severe. There will be hail and wind. Possibly very large hail and high winds. Move your cars in the garage and take a deep breath.

Now, the models are interesting this morning. The high res NAM is forming a north and south line that essentially splits the city with some follow up smaller storms after the main event. The HRRR is also trying to do this a bit as well. If those large supercells fire in the southwest, their outflow boundaries could effectively eliminate the severe weather threat for okc. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I’m not holding my breath though for a major impact to the okc area at the moment though.