May... more warmth, more storms...

Active week coming up after another few days of near-perfect dry spring weather. I think this has been one of the best and longest springs in recent memory as far as daytime and nighttime temps and low humidity. Warmer and more humid weather is on tap for the weekend into next week with more rain chances. Big rains forecasted over the next two weeks, right now favoring southern OK

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023050112/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Just want to say these days where we are in the 60s and 70s with no wind just really make me happy. This spring season started out awful, but really came-around in the last few weeks.

Strong south winds will return later this week with storm system approaching. SPC noting dryline action for Thursday across W OK.

Thinking storms west of the Metro on Thursday Sat and Sun will just depend on the track of the system.

Not ready for the predicted 90 degree Friday.

I'm just going to say this now and I'm not trying to stir anything up I'm not cheering for the storms but CLEAN OUT YOUR SHELTORS. Thursday looks good for storms if we don't have morning rain. Saturday looks ok and Sunday looks good for storms maybe Monday? Now of course it's only Tuesday night and things are going to change but we might have a very active few days coming up. We might even have a very active month.

Tomorrow set up is MESSY. Clouds morning rain how soon does that move out. Does the sun come back out? How much heating do we get? Some computer models say SW Oklahoma some say NW Oklahoma.

^ yes to all of that.

SPC outlining SIG hatched area across NW OK for hail in addition to a 5% marker for tornado.

2% for tornado for the remainder of W and C OK.

There will be another complex of storms coming out of the PH area tonight which will slowly decay across OK, much like today. The region's ability to rebound with instability is the key to any severe storms tomorrow. My gut says SW and SC OK are the most favorable for supercell action tomorrow.

^ yes to all of that.

SPC outlining SIG hatched area across NW OK for hail in addition to a 5% marker for tornado.

2% for tornado for the remainder of W and C OK.

There will be another complex of storms coming out of the PH area tonight which will slowly decay across OK, much like today. The region's ability to rebound with instability is the key to any severe storms tomorrow. My gut says SW and SC OK are the most favorable for supercell action tomorrow.

Storm complex in the PH looks strong too than thought. HRRR keeping storms around most of the morning. Watch for outflow boundary tomorrow from the morning storms. That will be the area.

With this morning's MCS sweeping across the state, SPC has downgraded parameters for the severe threat this afternoon.

No more than 2% tornado probability anywhere. And also complete removal of SIG hatched area for hail.

Watching visible satellite, the cloud deck is beginning to thin some across W and SW OK. This will aid in destabilization this afternoon.

Nice cluster of elevated storms about to roll through the Metro.

Nice cluster of elevated storms about to roll through the Metro.

Yep this might even be it for the Metro rest of the day. We shall see. Outflow boundary set up down by the red river? I could see a big storm or two down that way later today

Loving these thunderstorms!

Might see a quick flash flood warning come out for OKC proper as storms keep back-building.

Yeah it’s raining cats and dogs at 23rd and Classen.

Well this should help push more of the metro area out of the drought. The west really needs more rain.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

Latest SPC has dropped all of C and NW OK out of the Slight risk.

The main threat for severe storms will be down near Lawton and drifting ESE into the Red River valley.

Bunch of rain in the Yukon area this morning. It just kept building.

Flood watch is out for all of OKC metro and flash flood advisory for OKC proper.

My rain gauge near downtown Edmond has registered 1.05" already today...

I went out for lunch and my return to my work parking lot coincided with the torrential downpour. I was about 40 yards from the front door but still had to wait until it let up a bit.

I'm at a lower elevation and had a legit flood in my backyard. The rushing water knocked down a portion of my fence. Not fun, but otherwise the relatively gentle storm has been nice background noise while working.

3" in my rain gauge today close to 39th and Meridian added to the 4" I got last week. My poor tomato plants. They were just starting to recover from last weeks over watering. I just drove MacArthur from Reno north to 42nd st. Water about up to the curb almost the whole way.

Is that it, as far as the metro goes? Don't get me wrong,,,got plenty in The Village,, but my mom is driving in from Eastern Oklahoma. Just making sure more isn't gonna fire up. Thanks.

Finally, has started raining again in Stillwater as of 4pm after just .01" this morning.

Tennis ball size hail just south of the Red River - glad the severe risks shifted South! Got well over an inch of rain in far NW OKC.

Ended up with just shy of 1¼" here on the southside. Very glad for the rain!

2.12 just east of Mustang Power plant for me. Oh and what you doing there HRRR for Saturday Evening. Too soon HRRR too soon.

Going to be some serious instability in the air just east of the city saturday night. Could be some very large storms if the cap breaks.

On another note, this season has been odd as it seems like we have seen the dry line set up east of the city a lot so far. wonder if that's the trend of the season or if we'll see it pull back to the west as we get a bit more into may?

HRRR going crazy for Saturday just south and east of the Metro. I'm Interested to see what SPC does for their day 2 outlook coming up. It's 10:41 am now.

Nam st has nothing for tomorrow it holds the cap.

HRRR going crazy for Saturday just south and east of the Metro. More Interested to see what SPC does for their day 2 outlook coming up. It's 10:41 am now.

Care to share a screenshot. As far as I know, the HRRR doesn’t look that far out in advance.

Care to share a screenshot. As far as I know, the HRRR doesn’t look that far out in advance.HRRR goes out 48 hours on the 6s. 06Z, 12Z etc.

SPC went with slight risk for just a small part of Southern Oklahoma thru Texas with their 2 day outlook. Hail the big concern.

And now the Nam st is on board with storm After 8 pm for Southern Oklahoma. Looks like some big hail storms down by the red river might creep up to southern metro but right now a red river event.

Computer models still showing some big hailers in Southern Oklahoma/Red River tomorrow Wichita Fall/ Lawton to Gainesville/Ardmore around sun set tomorrow

And now the Nam st is on board with storm After 8 pm for Southern Oklahoma. Looks like some big hail storms down by the red river might creep up to southern metro but right now a red river event.

Nam came on board but the HRRR shifted it down south.

The models are struggling again with this system today. The CAPE is crazy high but there just isn’t much convergence today. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Wichita falls seems to be the target area for a lot of the Storm chasers today anything could go between Norman and Dallas today

Will have to watch for outflow storms ripping from south to north. But otherwise just hot and humid OKC saturday.

Man, what a humid day. Any other year and this would have been “one of those days.”

On that note, does anybody feel like this has been an odd spring so far?

GFS forecasted rainfall this week - best chances Wednesday and Saturday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023050718/gfs_apcpn_scus_28.png

Big differences between the different forecast models on rainfall amounts this week. This is an unsettled pattern with storm chances each day and then better/worse chances the next day based on where outflow boundaries set up and short wave impulses come through. Consider yourself lucky if you're able to get at least a couple inches.

It’s very strange that we’re a week into may and we have only had 1 or so traditional dry line set ups? Pretty wild…


Hopefully we can get some good gully washers through here.

This is looking like another year without much of a severe weather season. I’m not seeing anything on longer range models to indicate a traditional stormy pattern. Maybe that will change?

I know that as we move into late may and June, we get more northwesterly patterns with MCS’s and such. Those can bring some nice rains. We’re going to need it as the lakes are still really low.

Death Ridge setting up after this Low tries to come through this evening/tomorrow. I think that means it will be quite warm over the next week or so w/ the High Pressure. Please correct me if this is incorrect.

Yesterday one of the local TV weather guys was predicting a large statewide rain event for this weekend with a potential of up to 4" of rain. He said there is a huge amount of moisture moving up from the Gulf.

Still hot and humid next few days.

Could see some storm bubble up Wednesday afternoon, especially across E half of OK.

Best chance for OKC looks to be Thursday evening, with severe potential being there. Currently SPC has N/NW OK in Slight category with SIG marker. This zone extends just NW of the OKC metro. This will be dryline action, and I would not be surprised to see the area shift around a bit before Thursday.

Still hot and humid next few days.

Could see some storm bubble up Wednesday afternoon, especially across E half of OK.

Best chance for OKC looks to be Thursday evening, with severe potential being there. Currently SPC has N/NW OK in Slight category with SIG marker. This zone extends just NW of the OKC metro. This will be dryline action, and I would not be surprised to see the area shift around a bit before Thursday.

any thoughts on the broken arrow area for Friday Saturday and Sunday??

Keep a close eye on Thursday. SPC even updated their 3 day outlook for it.

This is looking like another year without much of a severe weather season. I’m not seeing anything on longer range models to indicate a traditional stormy pattern. Maybe that will change?

I know that as we move into late may and June, we get more northwesterly patterns with MCS’s and such. Those can bring some nice rains. We’re going to need it as the lakes are still really low.

For as bad as the drought has been I was surprised to see most lakes in decent shape heading into the wettest period of the year. The OKC-area lakes are low but are within reach of getting closer to normal. Bartlesville has been water rationing for months due to low levels at Copan. Skiatook near Tulsa is also the lowest it's been in several years due to its limited watershed in drought-plagued Osage County

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/345621705_628789875485862_2239752921677460081_n.jp g?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=P5m7qeEotYEAX9Z88ug&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=00_AfDMh-EbP-HsxuHyT3cYFVQchKQf0j2-AwIcXZlokEDN6Q&oe=645EF0C8

Hefner was really, really low before we got that 3-4 inches last week.

You can still see lots of brown dirt around the edges.

This is looking like another year without much of a severe weather season. I’m not seeing anything on longer range models to indicate a traditional stormy pattern. Maybe that will change?

I know that as we move into late may and June, we get more northwesterly patterns with MCS’s and such. Those can bring some nice rains. We’re going to need it as the lakes are still really low.

I don't know. Thursday looks bad.

I don't know. Thursday looks bad.

After Thursday though Severe Weather doesn't seem likely for a while in the Southern Plains. The "Death Ridge" forms and things shut down.

HRRR 48 Hours out. WOW. However it's still 48 hours out and only one run so MEH it will change but Thursday is a day to watch.

HRRR 48 Hours out. WOW. However it's still 48 hours out and only one run so MEH it will change but Thursday is a day to watch.

Where can I see it?

After Thursday though Severe Weather doesn't seem likely for a while in the Southern Plains. The "Death Ridge" forms and things shut down.

The models I looked at today still show an unsettled pattern continuing into the following week

The models I looked at today still show an unsettled pattern continuing into the following week

Yes rain all weekend first part of next week but severe weather no.

For as bad as the drought has been I was surprised to see most lakes in decent shape heading into the wettest period of the year. The OKC-area lakes are low but are within reach of getting closer to normal. Bartlesville has been water rationing for months due to low levels at Copan. Skiatook near Tulsa is also the lowest it's been in several years due to its limited watershed in drought-plagued Osage County

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/345621705_628789875485862_2239752921677460081_n.jp g?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=P5m7qeEotYEAX9Z88ug&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=00_AfDMh-EbP-HsxuHyT3cYFVQchKQf0j2-AwIcXZlokEDN6Q&oe=645EF0C8

Bartlesville needs to pipe in water from Kaw Lake.

Really interested to see what the SPC is going to go with on their 2-day Outlook. Did a little more digging tonight and it's a really good setup for some big thunderstorms for West Central Oklahoma on Thursday. I'm sure it'll just be enhanced but wouldn't shock me to see a moderate risk come later down the road.