View Full Version : May 2023 - General Weather Discussion



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SoonerDave
05-11-2023, 08:57 PM
Headed ENE like all the storms. Will go into Dibble area.

Good enough. ENE to Dibble isn't toward us. My family wants out of the Fraidy hole Thanks.

April in the Plaza
05-11-2023, 08:58 PM
Val is driving like a freaking idiot.

Which channel is Val on?

SoonerDave
05-11-2023, 09:08 PM
Just got out of the storm cellar at my mom's house and we can see the backside of the complex of storms. The electrical display is quite phenomenal, as are the mammatus clouds trailing the formation. It's nice to.see clearing skies to the west.

Mississippi Blues
05-11-2023, 09:08 PM
Which channel is Val on?

News 9. I can’t recall a time I’ve ever seen a storm chaser drive like that while on live.

C_M_25
05-11-2023, 09:11 PM
News 9. I can’t recall a time I’ve ever seen a storm chaser drive like that while on live.

Same here. They need to be putting those guys in better positions. With the technology we have and the local knowledge of the area, they need to put him on side roads that can have him miss the non local traffic.

Anonymous.
05-11-2023, 09:21 PM
What was the traffic? It is possible that it was other chasers. The chaser convergence on 3-4 cells can get crazy when that is the only game in town.

There were hundreds of them today camped in the Lawton area and rode up with the storms.

Pete
05-11-2023, 09:25 PM
^

How does storm chasing work?

Does Channel 9 and the other stations pay these people?

And some just do it for fun?

C_M_25
05-11-2023, 09:42 PM
Bumping since the storms are out of the viewing area, generally speaking.

A couple of things from today.

1. The HRRR did a poor job overall in predicting the weather today. It couldn’t settle in on a pattern until the storms were already firing. The NAM did a much better job.

2. All the models over emphasized northern okc all the way through until the even started. I suspect that the cloud cover and the late push from the low was the reason for this.

Moving on to tomorrow: the NAM is going nuts with CAPE. Suggesting over 6000 for the okc area. The HRRR and the NAM are wildly different in the storm patterns, but I’m leaning towards the NAM for now as the HRRR has been off lately. Model parameters don’t look half bad for tornadoes. I suspect we’ll need to watch tomorrow carefully.

Hollywood
05-11-2023, 09:43 PM
^

How does storm chasing work?

Does Channel 9 and the other stations pay these people?

And some just do it for fun?

You have a cluster of paid news guys, researchers, students, hobbyist, tour groups, thrill seekers, and basically anyone wanting to post to social media or throw flashy lights all over their car.

From an emergency response perspective, it makes things a huge PIA.

Anonymous.
05-11-2023, 09:49 PM
Yes the TV station chasers are employees and paid. But there are thousands of amateur chasers that are just weather nerds. Many of them are photographers and get paid via streaming and obviously for selling photographs and videos. But that business isn’t very lucrative since the tech is in everyone’s hands now. And unless your video is particularly unique (like getting directly hit by a tornado) you won’t be selling footage to any major outlets since they can just use their network of sister stations.

baralheia
05-11-2023, 09:53 PM
^

How does storm chasing work?

Does Channel 9 and the other stations pay these people?

And some just do it for fun?

My understanding is the storm chasers that are shown on the various news stations are paid by the stations. The rest are a mix of people chasing for the fun of it, people looking to make money from taking and selling or licensing pictures/video of the storms, and researchers/meteorologists/students.

kukblue1
05-11-2023, 10:01 PM
Just for the record the high today in OKC was 80. Yes it stayed cloudy until 4 and I do think it helped some it could of been even worse but sometime it don't take much heating to get thing done.

Bunty
05-12-2023, 04:33 AM
News 9. I can’t recall a time I’ve ever seen a storm chaser drive like that while on live.

He recently had a newspaper story written about him: https://www.stwnewspress.com/news/local_news/news-9-stormtrackers-share-stories-about-sundays-chase/article_0f98c37c-b875-11ed-8e6c-63d42f676f1f.html

BG918
05-12-2023, 06:15 AM
Disappointed in the rainfall totals across the state after predictions of 2-3” this week. I think the low out west moved too far north and the cut off low to the east mostly missed OK. Hopefully the low moving up from TX this weekend delivers.

Urbanite
05-12-2023, 07:57 AM
My understanding is the storm chasers that are shown on the various news stations are paid by the stations. The rest are a mix of people chasing for the fun of it, people looking to make money from taking and selling or licensing pictures/video of the storms, and researchers/meteorologists/students.

This is a cool site that shows storm chasers all over the US and their live streams. Some are paid some are just doing it for fun, but we like to watch it for the first hand viewing, but you can also tell where the real danger areas are because they will start congregating around the areas with highest chance of forming tornado's.

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

C_M_25
05-12-2023, 07:59 AM
Looks like todays event will impact…yet again…the south and southeastern part of the state.

brunnesa
05-12-2023, 09:01 AM
Disappointed in the rainfall totals across the state after predictions of 2-3” this week. I think the low out west moved too far north and the cut off low to the east mostly missed OK. Hopefully the low moving up from TX this weekend delivers.

I got 1.36 inches at my house yesterday.

C_M_25
05-12-2023, 09:20 AM
I tried to go fish lake Hefner this morning and the water is so low, I was nervous about backing my trailer right off the end of the ramp to launch the boat. Last time I saw it this low was 9 years ago. We need a bunch of rain right now.

kukblue1
05-12-2023, 11:03 AM
South Metro be ready again starting around 5 pm

Teo9969
05-12-2023, 11:26 AM
Man guys, I’m struggling with this one today. I’ve been outside and my “okie senses” aren’t tingling (great scientific term there lol). All we need is a bit of clearing out but it currently doesn’t feel all that conducive for storms out there at the moment (north side of okc).

This morning felt much more like it could be a bad day.

Anonymous.
05-12-2023, 11:38 AM
Currently anyone east of the dryline has a shot at storms. Right now the cumulus field is expanding back to the NW and includes all of OKC metro. If this continues, the development zone could very well be directly over the city.

NWS has issued a flood watch for basically all of SW, SC, and C OK. This is from later this afternoon through the weekend.


Choose your fighter:

GEM puts heaviest rain across SW and C OK.
GFS & NAM place the heaviest rains across SC and SE OK.
HRRR places heaviest rain across SC and SE OK.

Later this afternoon into evening:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023051215/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

C_M_25
05-12-2023, 01:22 PM
One thing is for sure, it feels like a very stormy day outside. “One of those days” if you will.

Weird that we’re not expecting much in north okc.

Hollywood
05-12-2023, 01:45 PM
One thing is for sure, it feels like a very stormy day outside. “One of those days” if you will.

Weird that we’re not expecting much in north okc.

That's no lie. Just had to get out of my car and felt like I was baking in the parking lot.

C_M_25
05-12-2023, 02:21 PM
So the latest HRRR run is showing a bigger line of storms north of I-40. It did the same yesterday and those failed to materialize. Looks like a predominantly hail threat?

PoliSciGuy
05-12-2023, 02:29 PM
So the latest HRRR run is showing a bigger line of storms north of I-40. It did the same yesterday and those failed to materialize. Looks like a predominantly hail threat?

Wonder if the longer duration of afternoon heating makes those northern ones fire this time

BG918
05-12-2023, 03:41 PM
Wonder if the longer duration of afternoon heating makes those northern ones fire this time

Hope so northern OK hasn't seen much if any rain this week, and is still in severe drought

Anonymous.
05-12-2023, 04:01 PM
Severe Watch is out for entire central part of the state. OKC will be really close to development edge.

baralheia
05-12-2023, 04:09 PM
18023

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0217.html

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest/Central/Northeast Oklahoma
Northwest Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas and
southwest/central/northeast Oklahoma. Strong instability will
support robust updrafts capable of large hail. Damaging downbursts
are possible as well. Storms may grow upscale into a convective
line, which could also produce damaging wind gusts as it moves
southeastward.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south of Wichita
Falls TX to 30 miles west northwest of Tulsa OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 215...WW 216...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Mosier

Anonymous.
05-12-2023, 04:17 PM
Towers going up NNW of OKC. Should see these blow up and move SSE in clusters riding outflow boundaries.

SoonerDave
05-12-2023, 04:36 PM
Radar I'm looking at shows small storms around Chickasha sliding up I-44 but kinda fading as they get closer to OKC.

C_M_25
05-12-2023, 07:05 PM
The NAM is really backing off the rain for tomorrow. Hope that’s not correct as we really need some good rain.

C_M_25
05-12-2023, 09:55 PM
Storm firing west of Guthrie looks like a solid thumper. Pretty good lightning show too. That thing blew up out of now where. Are we going to start to see development along that line?

C_M_25
05-12-2023, 09:59 PM
The NAM looks interesting for tomorrow. It shows a cluster of storms that fires in southeastern ok that collapse as the big wave of rain moves in. Looks like the clouds outflow boundaries from those storms just obliterates the rain that is moving in at the same time. Will be interesting to see if that holds true (I hope it doesn’t).

Bunty
05-12-2023, 11:50 PM
Storm firing west of Guthrie looks like a solid thumper. Pretty good lightning show too. That thing blew up out of no where. Are we going to start to see development along that line?

That storm didn't misbehave much upon its arrival to Stillwater. No high winds or hail. Just moderate to heavy rain with no annoyingly loud thunderclaps. Surely the most intense area missed me. Anyway, if there can be a good training effect, then the final rain amount might be able to go over 1 inch before it's over tonight.

Bunty
05-13-2023, 12:50 AM
Interesting development. The storms didn't train by continuing to move ENE. Instead, they solidified into a solid line and switched direction south to head for OKC metro. And toward Tulsa, too. But aren't as strong as they had been.

C_M_25
05-13-2023, 09:34 AM
The radar is certainly favoring last night’s NAM run. Will be really disappointing if we don’t see any rain today.

BG918
05-13-2023, 02:34 PM
It looks like the storms today will set up in a linear format so some areas will see heavy rains while areas on either side see nothing. These are outer bands from the low still spinning in Texas that is slowly lifting north.

Forecast models showing a larger frontal boundary moving through at the end of next week that will likely have severe weather. Right now it looks more like an MCS-type event with a wind/hail threat and not tornadoes.

okatty
05-13-2023, 05:29 PM
Came a FLOOD far NW OKC - 3 inches in my gauge with really strong winds and small hail.

poe
05-13-2023, 05:31 PM
Came a FLOOD far NW OKC - 3 inches in my gauge with really strong winds and small hail.

Same! Power went out twice for a few minutes and both my new trees blew over (even with stakes). :(

Bunty
05-13-2023, 06:42 PM
Heavy rain started as of 6:40 pm in Stillwater. Fortunately, only a "Special Weather Statement" out for it.

C_M_25
05-14-2023, 06:57 AM
Phenomenal rain today. This will go a long way in filling up the area lakes and ponds….specifically Hefner.

Pete
05-14-2023, 01:52 PM
Holy cow, my yard is already a jungle and with all this rain, not sure when I'm going to be able to cut it.

Nice problem to have!

stratosphere
05-14-2023, 02:27 PM
Holy cow, my yard is already a jungle and with all this rain, not sure when I'm going to be able to cut it.

Nice problem to have!

Agreed. Our little rain gauge is full.

BG918
05-14-2023, 05:38 PM
NW OK still lacking but lots of dry area have seen decent totals
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.120hr.png?cache_bust=1684103816831

gjl
05-14-2023, 07:38 PM
3" in my rain gauge today. That makes 11" total at my location in the last 3 weeks. And supposed to be more to come tonight and tomorrow.

Pete
05-14-2023, 07:40 PM
I couldn't take it anymore and set my mower on a high level just so I could knock it down a bit.

I'm sure I'll be mowing again in a few days but it does look much better.

C_M_25
05-15-2023, 08:38 AM
What weather radar apps do you guys like? I have been using tuttle’s weather app but I’m sick of his stupid ads that pop up at horribly inconvenient times.

jedicurt
05-15-2023, 08:45 AM
What weather radar apps do you guys like? I have been using tuttle’s weather app but I’m sick of his stupid ads that pop up at horribly inconvenient times.

radarscope. it doesn't have a bunch of the common "cool" features that a bunch of others have. but if you are just wanting to look at radar data. it's great. able to show different tilts, and different data sets from the radar very quickly.

OkiePoke
05-15-2023, 08:53 AM
Mesonet has a decent app. Good radar. If I want more info, I use weather.com

OKCisOK4me
05-15-2023, 09:06 AM
Besides Radarscope which I do pay an annual fee for the live lightning data, I also like the Windy app. It has all kinds of features that are pretty cool.

gjl
05-15-2023, 09:20 AM
Try this one. I use it on a PC or Laptop. Takes a while to figure out all it's features. I use Relf At Lowest Altitude for pretty accurate coverage of what is actually reaching the ground.

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

Phone app I use My Radar.

baralheia
05-15-2023, 09:53 AM
What weather radar apps do you guys like? I have been using tuttle’s weather app but I’m sick of his stupid ads that pop up at horribly inconvenient times.

If you're looking for high-resolution weather radar and access to the same kind of radar products that the pros can see, it's hard to beat Radarscope. It's a little overpowered for a casual user that is just looking for basic radar, though. The Mesonet app is a great free option for basic radar (as well as immediate conditions and forecasts) and they don't have any ads.

BoulderSooner
05-15-2023, 10:07 AM
If you're looking for high-resolution weather radar and access to the same kind of radar products that the pros can see, it's hard to beat Radarscope. It's a little overpowered for a casual user that is just looking for basic radar, though. The Mesonet app is a great free option for basic radar (as well as immediate conditions and forecasts) and they don't have any ads.

+1 for Radarscope it is great ..

Outhunder
05-15-2023, 10:07 AM
Besides Radarscope which I do pay an annual fee for the live lightning data, I also like the Windy app. It has all kinds of features that are pretty cool.

I second Windy.

kukblue1
05-15-2023, 10:55 AM
Radarscope and Radar Omega are the two heavy hitters in this space if you willing to pay.

Anonymous.
05-15-2023, 02:20 PM
That is a wrap on this system. Many parts of KS, OK, and TX that are ravaged with drought got some needed help.

Next storm chances look like Thursday night into Friday.

LakeEffect
05-15-2023, 04:11 PM
That is a wrap on this system. Many parts of KS, OK, and TX that are ravaged with drought got some needed help.

Next storm chances look like Thursday night into Friday.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center issued its updated Day 3-7 forecast and put Oklahoma in a "Heavy Rain" threat for 5/18-5/19. https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1658208369973526528

BG918
05-15-2023, 05:26 PM
The NWS Weather Prediction Center issued its updated Day 3-7 forecast and put Oklahoma in a "Heavy Rain" threat for 5/18-5/19. https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1658208369973526528

GFS forecast through Saturday. Northern OK needs this badly
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023051518/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

BG918
05-18-2023, 04:00 PM
Heavy rain moving into OK Friday AM through the afternoon. Widespread 1-2" amounts likely

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023051812/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_14.png

BG918
05-19-2023, 12:30 PM
Models did a good job with this storm, and NW OK finally picked up some decent rainfall. The next drought monitor should look a lot better across OK

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png?cache_bust=1684517327947