I feel like the high res NAM is more representative at the moment. The HRRR has a line of storms that have should have already fired in NW ok. Those have yet to materialize. The NAM has a very similar look to it to the current radar trends.

Go watch the visible satellite loops. It is building back over the okc area. It cleared for a bit then the clouds came right back over and pretty thick. It is warming a bit though. The storms definitely have enough energy to initiate where the clouds cleared. I just wonder if there is enough instability to maintain them over the city.

Fair point. I think we'll get an hour or two that should get us close to 80 which should be enough, but this might put the northern part of the metro out of play for the more significant stuff

If you watch up near Pueblo CO (go to their radar), the low has been basically stationary or even a slight drift west. Need the system to make a jog east before any substantial lift comes into play.

Southern end of the dryline starting to get some movement down SW of Ft Worth.

If you watch up near Pueblo CO (go to their radar), the low has been basically stationary or even a slight drift west. Need the system to make a jog east before any substantial lift comes into play.

Southern end of the dryline starting to get some movement down SW of Ft Worth.

Do you think that thing is going to move in time? I wonder what the odds are of this system busting because of that low not moving?

Tornado Watch just issued, covering central to south-central and parts of southwest Oklahoma. This covers OKC down to the Red River.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0213.html


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Central Oklahoma
North Texas

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to quickly develop and intensify
through late afternoon, initially across southern Oklahoma and far
north Texas in vicinity of a remnant boundary. Additional
development will likely occur east-northeastward into central
Oklahoma by early evening as the air mass continues to quickly
moisten and destabilize. Supercells capable of very large hail and
tornadoes can be expected through at least mid-evening as storms
spread toward/east of the I-35 corridor.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Fort Sill OK to 30
miles north of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 210...WW 211...WW 212...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22025.

...Guyer

Pretty high parameters for that watch.


Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)

Temperature here in my weather station actually dropped a couple of degrees after hitting 77 very briefly

Now showing 75 and continued thick cloud deck.

Cloudy and 74 over by Lake Hefner

Well, the clouds are clearing out quickly. Just in time for some last minute warming. The delay on the low gave us some extra time here. Wondering if that bites us a bit here in the sense that we could have more instability moving in before things kick off.

Edit: of course the delay will allow time for the dry line to push east and result in us getting screwed on much needed rain again. We’ll see I guess.

Well, the clouds are clearing out quickly. Just in time for some last minute warming. The delay on the low gave us some extra time here. Wondering if that bites us a bit here in the sense that we could have more instability moving in before things kick off.

Edit: of course the delay will allow time for the dry line to push east and result in us getting screwed on much needed rain again. We’ll see I guess.

Things clearing out quickly up near Piedmont. Temperature has risen from 75 to 78 in about 5-10 minutes.

Well, the clouds are clearing out quickly. Just in time for some last minute warming. The delay on the low gave us some extra time here. Wondering if that bites us a bit here in the sense that we could have more instability moving in before things kick off.

Edit: of course the delay will allow time for the dry line to push east and result in us getting screwed on much needed rain again. We’ll see I guess.

Also makes it more likely the storms get over the metro just as the LLJ kicks in around sunset, which ain't great

Radar out west still looks quiet at the moment

Cumulus towers going up south of Fairview and north of Lawton. Looks like stuff might try and start to get going here.

I’m seeing 79 at my house in NW okc. Temps are going up quickly.

Suns coming out in nw okc. Clouds clearing.

Pretty high parameters for that watch.

Out of curiosity, where did that come from? I can't find it on the previously linked tornado watch.

Looks like one cell firing up NE of Wichita Falls....

.

Out of curiosity, where did that come from? I can't find it on the previously linked tornado watch.

Go to the watch on the SPC webpage and go to 'probabilities' near the top of the watch.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0213.html

Got our first severe warning SE of Lawton

Storm coming up from the RR and heading between Lawton/Duncan is going to be the first spinner. There is about 100 chasers on it.

Models are really leaning into these storms going south and east of the city. That low slowed down just a little too much I suspect.

Mark Hill has great shot of the wallcloud on that one SW of Duncan cell.

Yeah this thing is gonna produce

I don't know who in Oklahoma City pissed off mother nature, but we keep missing out on rain. Not sure where Hefner can pull from now, because Canton is even lower.

Looks like a false alarm tonight.

Looks like a false alarm tonight.

You say that and all of the sudden the dayline starts unzipping. A storm just popped up north of El Reno.

Line north of the big storm off Lawton is getting organized around Chickasha, heading NE, and looks like it is a good candidate to head toward OKC in the next hour or two.

Chickasha storm has a decent lowering. As these mature into sunset. Could see a quick spinup.

Yeah once the LLJ kicks in it could provide enough sheer for these to produce something in the next couple hours

TOR warning coming for Tuttle.

This will be full coverage on all local channels now. So tune into your fav met if you are looking for the latest info.

Good luck everyone!

Interesting development south of Yukon.

Cell coming up I-44 toward Bridge Creek is going to be the next one.

Bridgecreek storm looks like the real deal right now. Could be the big one today.

The Yukon storm is getting organized too

Yeah that Bridge Creek storm is a nasty one

Bridge Creek spinning up and warned now.

Cell coming up I-44 toward Bridge Creek is going to be the next one.

TOR warned now. This is going to be coming directly up 44.

Some serious spin south of chickasha now too

Yukon storm is starting to spin just a little bit now too. Hook developing.

All the storms are running into each other which is helping to keep things in check. If anything can get isolated though…

This is a classic case of low level jet kicking in. We may get a bunch of small spinups but nothing too crazy

MD out for C OK. Tornado probabilities peak next 1-2 hours.

Edit: sorry on mobile. Formatting bad.

Bridge Creek/Newcastle storm is the best looking one right now.

It looks like the serious action will be from Norman and points south. OKC proper looks like just some nice rain and thunder!

Bridge Creek/Newcastle storm is the best looking one right now.

It looks like the serious action will be from Norman and points south. OKC proper looks like just some nice rain and thunder!

Yep. It seems to be over for most of the metro.

Moore and south are still under the gun, that's a lot of folks

Yep. It seems to be over for most of the metro.

I reverse jinxed it. I live in South OKC/Moore, and it is NOT over for me. I wish I had your obtuse attitude.

I reverse jinxed it. I live in South OKC/Moore, and it is NOT over for me. I wish I had your obtuse attitude.

I apologize for my insensitivity. I didn't mean to come across this way. The news had me to believe the storm was weakening.

Stay safe.

We've been in my mom's shelter in S OKC/NW Moore for a while now and I think the bulk has passed us. But I see a big storm east of Chickasha moving NE.and can't tell if that's going to occlude and turn north or stay heading NE. Also how much longer will this LLJ continue to make this situation volatile?

A couple of things from today.

1. The HRRR did a poor job overall in predicting the weather today. It couldn’t settle in on a pattern until the storms were already firing. The NAM did a much better job.

2. All the models over emphasized northern okc all the way through until the even started. I suspect that the cloud cover and the late push from the low was the reason for this.

Moving on to tomorrow: the NAM is going nuts with CAPE. Suggesting over 6000 for the okc area. The HRRR and the NAM are wildly different in the storm patterns, but I’m leaning towards the NAM for now as the HRRR has been off lately. Model parameters don’t look half bad for tornadoes. I suspect we’ll need to watch tomorrow carefully.

Also, I’m glad I don’t chase anymore. Watching Val driving like an idiot with all the traffic out there is just stressful. Not even worth it anymore.

Cole has been getting blasted the past few storms. The one here is nothing to mess around with.

You can tell there are dozens of amateur storm chasers out there.

The amount of traffic is ridiculous.

Anon, anyone have any info on that Chickasha storm?

Val is driving like a freaking idiot.

Anyone catch Hank getting caught in the middle of that weak tornado a little while ago on channel 9?

I apologize for my insensitivity. I didn't mean to come across this way. The news had me to believe the storm was weakening.

Stay safe.

My apologies for sounding rude. I was in the heat of torrential downpours and tornado sirens all around me. I shouldn't have been rude, and I apologize.

Anyone catch Hank getting caught in the middle of that weak tornado a little while ago on channel 9?

Hahaha. Yeah. “He knew it was a small tornado.”

Yeah…you got lucky in that situation and you know it it. Lolol.

Anon, anyone have any info on that Chickasha storm?

Headed ENE like all the storms. Will go into Dibble area.

My apologies for sounding rude. I was in the heat of torrential downpours and tornado sirens all around me. I shouldn't have been rude, and I apologize.

No worries. I understand.