Ok so SPC is holding back a bit for now. Here's what they think:

A more substantial -- through also likely more isolated -- severe
risk may evolve across parts of western Oklahoma, near a potential
dryline bulge. While capping should hinder development until late
afternoon, developing storms would be evolving within an airmass
featuring a moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates aloft,
and with low-level southeasterly flow veering and increasing to
southwesterly at mid levels. As a result, a couple of supercell
storms are anticipated, which would be capable of producing very
large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and potentially a couple of
tornadoes. This risk would spread northeastward through the evening
-- across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. While questions
regarding convective coverage argue against upgrading tornado or
hail probabilities at this time, such upgrades could be necessary in
future outlooks if this scenario becomes more certain, and
particularly if it appears that storm coverage may be slightly
greater than currently anticipated.

Models are backing off a touch on storm intensity although they still have a cluster popping up in central ok. There’s not much in the way of convergence to initiate storms. If that low can track a little further south or if it speeds up a hair, it could be a rough day. It could also be a nothing burger too.

There are a lot of people putting all of their eggs in the NAM/HRRR basket for tomorrow.
The other models output is lacking… to be perfectly transparent.

Yep the models are not agreeing that being said though ingredients are there for some big storms.

Another factor for tomorrow is a potential for decaying cluster of morning time storms coming out of the panhandle area. Longevity, cloudcover, and outflow boundaries interacting with the dryline will all need to be accounted for.

One thing is for certain. Massive chaser convergence.

SPC upgraded C, NC, and NW OK to Enhanced Risk. Including 10% tornado probabilities. Hatched for significant potential on both tornado and hail. All of OKC is included now and that extends past Norman.

Enhanced risk now from SPC with at 10% hatched tornado area from OKC up to SW Kansas.

Pretty wild to see that cut off low moving northwest across Arkansas. Almost looks like a decaying tropical system with a few outer bands moving across Oklahoma

So the whole setup for tomorrow afternoon is predicated on how far north that low moves up, correct?

Tomorrow is feeling a whole lot more like “bust” territory than anything big. The NAM is struggling to fire storms at all. The atmosphere is primed but there is no convergence to initiate storms. The HRRR is firing a couple of storms still but they’re small little cluster now. The HRRR is also showing more of a cap. Than previous model iterations. The NAM is hinting at cloudy conditions most of the day but no cap. I suspect that there will be a cap tomorrow and not enough heating to fire storms. Also, not enough convergence overall.

Tomorrow is feeling a whole lot more like “bust” territory than anything big. The NAM is struggling to fire storms at all. The atmosphere is primed but there is no convergence to initiate storms. The HRRR is firing a couple of storms still but they’re small little cluster now. The HRRR is also showing more of a cap. Than previous model iterations. The NAM is hinting at cloudy conditions most of the day but no cap. I suspect that there will be a cap tomorrow and not enough heating to fire storms. Also, not enough convergence overall.

Will there be enough forcing and dry line burgle to overcome some of that though? I'm thinking the low does maybe need to track a little further south..

Edmond Public Schools has already moved Kindergarten parent night so looks like bust it is!

Pouring in eastern Oklahoma where I'm at for work. So obviously the rain dies before it reaches the metro.

HRRR still liking the I-35 area with storms blowing up along i-35. Let's see what the Namnst does cause it hasn't been showing much.

One thing that really worries me about tomorrow is how the HRRR is being so specific to only one or two isolated super cells. I can’t understand why that one specific little area is conducive to storm initiation, but that trend has been consistent. However, if those storms break the cap, that atmosphere is going to be seriously charged and isolated which is a bad combination for tornadoes. Some of our worst tornadoes have been when these supercells get isolated like this.

If the HRRR holds out tomorrow and the skies clear by lunch, I would not at all be surprised if the tornado risk is elevated. Could it be significant enough to see a PDS warning tomorrow?

Moore might be about to get hit by the big one again
18021

So am I mistaken, or are the models not at all settled on today's events? Unless I'm just completely misreading things, the current HRRR (at least the site I use tells me it's current) shows....nothing?? But the NAM showing what I would characterize as a very narrow range of initiation in the 4pm-ish timeframe along the I-35 corridor?

Are we talking about differences in estimation of the cap, or ??

NAM is starting to wake up a bit as it’s showing storm initiation now. The HRRR is also blowing up as well. NAM is favoring isolated storms and the HRRR is showing a line.

Btw, PDS…called it!

NAM is starting to wake up a bit as it’s showing storm initiation now. The HRRR is also blowing up as well. NAM is favoring isolated storms and the HRRR is showing a line.

Btw, PDS…called it!

Just to make sure I'm seeing the same HRRR, the one I'm seeing is showing a line forming roughly along I-35 from right at OKC and north, starting 7-8pm?

Just to make sure I'm seeing the same HRRR, the one I'm seeing is showing a line forming roughly along I-35 from right at OKC and north, starting 7-8pm?

Yeah that looks like the HRRR I just looked at as well.

There are storms in southwest Oklahoma that will complicate the forecast if they don't die off as expected.

Edit: This activity is quickly eroding so probably not a factor for late this afternoon.

Just throwing this out there.

The latest run of the HRRR has kinda of busted on this stuff this morning. The model thought it would be dying off a lot faster than it is. Plus, the amount of convective blow off (clouds, etc) is quite a bit larger than expected.

The HRRR is really moving stuff around this morning. The timing and location of that main cluster of storms is really all over the place. It’s annoying really…

SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk + SIG hatched areas further east to encompass Tulsa metro.

Also I see some posts here mentioning PDS. The only official PDS wording comes from the SPC for watches, and NWS offices for warnings. Local mets calling days or things PDS is their own adaptation for their forecast.

SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk + SIG hatched areas further east to encompass Tulsa metro.

Also I see some posts here mentioning PDS. The only official PDS wording comes from the SPC for watches, and NWS offices for warnings. Local mets calling days or things PDS is their own adaptation for their forecast.

Well that tells me they're looking at that HRRR model which seems to lean to a bigger line forming roughly along I-35 from OKC north and moving northeast.

There's been no NWS PDS declaration at all that I've seen

SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk + SIG hatched areas further east to encompass Tulsa metro.

Also I see some posts here mentioning PDS. The only official PDS wording comes from the SPC for watches, and NWS offices for warnings. Local mets calling days or things PDS is their own adaptation for their forecast.

I don’t think anybody is calling for PDS. I suggested last night that I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some of that verbiage by this afternoon, and some of the model skew-t’s are hinting at the parameters for such discussion; however, things are still too much in flux atm. I predicted PDS verbiage coming through today but this overcast is complicating everything.

HRRR right now starting to show a pretty firm line of storms developing essentially on top of I-35 from KS to TX right at 8pm tonight. Doesn't seem to show much afternoon initiation, so I'm inferring the development is based on better LLJ in the evening..

Yeah the outlook text (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) doesn't have any of the kind of verbiage we usually see (eg. "violent" or "strong" tornadoes or "outbreak", etc.) that would indicate a PDS tornado watch. Obviously a lot can change in the next few hours but nothing yet indicates that this is more dangerous than the system we had go through a few weeks ago

Yeah the outlook text (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) doesn't have any of the kind of verbiage we usually see (eg. "violent" or "strong" tornadoes or "outbreak", etc.) that would indicate a PDS tornado watch. Obviously a lot can change in the next few hours but nothing yet indicates that this is more dangerous than the system we had go through a few weeks ago

Right now I'm staring at a thick deck of cloud cover that I think extends across a lot of C OK. If the remnants of those western storms slides in, even if the rain has abated, it's going to make clearing and heating that much tougher. Not impossible, but tougher.

Yeah the outlook text (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) doesn't have any of the kind of verbiage we usually see (eg. "violent" or "strong" tornadoes or "outbreak", etc.) that would indicate a PDS tornado watch. Obviously a lot can change in the next few hours but nothing yet indicates that this is more dangerous than the system we had go through a few weeks ago

Yeah the models have moved away from isolated supercell development and are favoring a broader line. Overcast is thick as well. I think those things will limit any sort of PDS-type discussion. We’ll see though. Lots of time left before things become clearer.

Right now I'm staring at a thick deck of cloud cover that I think extends across a lot of C OK. If the remnants of those western storms slides in, even if the rain has abated, it's going to make clearing and heating that much tougher. Not impossible, but tougher.

Yeah agreed, though it'd only take 1-2 hours of even partially clear skies to heat up enough to make the environment ripe. All depends on what the skies here in the metro look like around 2-3pm

Yeah I was going to say don't let this morning cloud cover fool you the system is just moving in at the right time with the right jet stream the right moisture timing is really perfect for the system. All that being said I still only think we get two maybe three storms

Clouds starting to break in Norman with sun peaking through.

Yeah I was going to say don't let this morning cloud cover fool you the system is just moving in at the right time with the right jet stream the right moisture timing is really perfect for the system. All that being said I still only think we get two maybe three storms

The sun is peeking through every so often here. The activity in the Lawton area starting to move off to the east and shrinking in size a bit. Don't know if that will happen quickly enough.

Last info I saw it appears to be more prevalent OKC and north?

Heavy overcast has returned in my neck of the woods (a bit SE of WRWA) just before 11AM along with some very light sprinkles.

The NAM in Moore is going crazy
18022

https://vimeo.com/825900653?share=copy

Yeah this should be the last band of stuff for the metro before the main show, western side of the state already experiencing some clearing: https://www.mesonet.org/weather/solar-radiation-satellite/solar-radiation?ref=1252

The sun is peeking through every so often here. The activity in the Lawton area starting to move off to the east and shrinking in size a bit. Don't know if that will happen quickly enough.

It's not going to take much sun today. We get into the upper 70s to low 80s it's go time.

Watch any OFBs from the elevated convection for potential initiation later today, I think.

Early storms didn't seem to change much according to NWS Norman:
https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1656705115489812505

The latest day 1 outlook is about the same. The current ongoing cluster may limit activity somewhat in northern Oklahoma and Kansas, but storms are still expected to form out west. The evening low level jet is when the tornado threat starts going up.

Man guys, I’m struggling with this one today. I’ve been outside and my “okie senses” aren’t tingling (great scientific term there lol). All we need is a bit of clearing out but it currently doesn’t feel all that conducive for storms out there at the moment (north side of okc).

Cloud deck remaining thick where I am.

I admit I'm on the side of hoping no major storms. I know some here are wanting something chaseable or meteorologically impressive, and I understand that, but for me I'm kinda the weather focal for my family - and that includes an 87-year-old mom who isn't terribly mobile, so can't necessarily get down her storm cellar, a daughter living in Moore and a son down in Newcastle, all.of whom typically text me on a day like today and say "what's up with the weather..."

Check in in another couple hours, clearing is reaching Weatherford right now and should be in the metro by then. Not gonna take too much sunlight and heating to re-prime the environment after this morning.

The visable satellite images show a lot of clearing southwest correct? Or am I looking at the wrong thing?

That might make for a bad day for some...

The visable satellite images show a lot of clearing southwest correct? Or am I looking at the wrong thing?

That might make for a bad day for some...

No thats correct. Things are clearing. Apparently there's a break in cloud cover right over Hobart mesonet station.
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/solar-radiation-satellite/solar-radiation?ref=1252

Video update from NWS Norman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWcqiMs1YG4&ab_channel=NWSNorman

It's not going to take much clearing today but now that we are pushing 1pm and the cloud cover is still thick, not moving very fast, and still in the upper 60s it might not be as bad at all. I would favor south of i-40 as of now.

Rogue cell to the SW of Wichita Falls that fired off of the outflow boundary feels like it could have a negative effect on moisture return if it ultimately establishes itself. If it ends up dissipating, feels like there is still more than enough time to heat up the atmosphere in SW Oklahoma. Less certain about areas north of I-40.

This system is a mess. Cloud cover is still way too thick in OKC. Don't think I've seen models bouncing around this much in a while as well.

The latest HRRR run shows 2 clusters of storms moving in different directions. The storms north of I-40 move off to the northwest and the storms south of I-40 turn into an MCS and move southeast. Don't think I've seen that before.

There's some pretty good warming occurring now in southwest central Oklahoma. The thickest cloud cover over the metro may move out in the next 30mins to an hour looking at satellite loops. That Wichita Falls storm is now dead.

Yeah other than the metro, the rest of central/Western OK is clear and warming rapidly, and our turn is coming any minute now. Tornado watch should be out shortly.

Looks like NWS will be issuing a Tornado Watch for about SW 2/3 of the state here shortly.

Sorry, tried to post Twitter link and forgot that isn't implemented here.

Basically said they're looking at two possible areas of initiation, one NW and one SW. Said central OK.was most likely affected between 6-8 pm.

Cloud cover is unrelenting and building back. Just don’t see how this is going to clear out and do anything meaningful to okc.

Things in the south metro (near Crossroads) are warming up. My personal weather station is showing 75°F with a clear warming trend since noon, and the dewpoint is at 66°F. Solar radiation is variable but climbing as the cloud deck thins - up to 663W/m2 in the same period.

Cloud cover is unrelenting and building back. Just don’t see how this is going to clear out and do anything meaningful to okc.

It's not building back, and in the main area where initiation is gonna begin it's plenty sunny and warm

https://i.imgur.com/NrNgZty.png

Cloud cover is unrelenting and building back. Just don’t see how this is going to clear out and do anything meaningful to okc.

That's exactly what I'm seeing. I think it's starting to clear, then it clouds up again. Thick cover still here, weather station reporting 75 degrees.

It's not building back, and in the main area where initiation is gonna begin it's plenty sunny and warm

https://i.imgur.com/NrNgZty.png

Go watch the visible satellite loops. It is building back over the okc area. It cleared for a bit then the clouds came right back over and pretty thick. It is warming a bit though. The storms definitely have enough energy to initiate where the clouds cleared. I just wonder if there is enough instability to maintain them over the city.