Active pattern continues to start the month. Cold front is pushing into the state at the moment which means that we will have a brisk start to the day tomorrow morning, but ultimately tomorrow afternoon should be very nice with highs in the 60's and winds dying down as the day goes on (which will hopefully help with ongoing firefighting efforts). Quick turnaround on Sunday as the moist sector reestablishes itself which will possibly lead to elevated thunderstorms around midday (likely non-severe, maybe a marginal hail threat). Monday and especially Tuesday look very problematic for additional wildfires as a dryline will likely shunt the moisture eastward, and highs in the mid 80's along with strong SW winds will once again encourage the rapid spread of any fires that develop. On the off chance that the dryline ends up further west than what is currently forecast, the environment will likely be very favorable for severe weather as opposed to wildfires. The more probable outcome is that it will end up as another regional tornado outbreak for areas to our east. Another strong cold front will move through on Tuesday Night which will knock high temperatures down into the 50s/60s for the rest of the week. The pattern potentially looks more favorable for rain across much of the state as we head into next weekend. We will keep our fingers crossed.

Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for Tuesday Afternoon.

Since there's no specific thread, can anyone tell me how close the wildfire got to Seward Rd? I can'tv tell from any vids online l've found.

I drove up there this afternoon out of curiosity and didn't see any damage north of Forrest Hills.

Pop-up storms rolling through the Metro currently.

I drove up there this afternoon out of curiosity and didn't see any damage north of Forrest Hills.

Whew, thx. Family land up there.

So freaking windy and dry.

North of the I-44 corridor is a freaking tinderbox right now.

Big rains forecasted in Texas later this week but only slight chances in eastern OK Tues night. A cooler, drier air mass will be in place through Easter weekend. Unsettled weather doesn’t return until later next week

Long rang GFS doesn’t show much in the way of a pattern change until mid-April and even then, it doesn’t look all that significant. I really hope that is wrong. Getting concerned about this drought in NW Oklahoma

Extreme fire danger for the W half of the state again tomorrow as winds pick back up. Smoke and dust filling the air seems like it will be a theme this Spring. Meanwhile eastern OK into AR is basically a lush rainforest.

https://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image_full2.png



https://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20230403/april-drought-outlook.png

Extreme fire danger for the W half of the state again tomorrow as winds pick back up. Smoke and dust filling the air seems like it will be a theme this Spring. Meanwhile eastern OK into AR is basically a lush rainforest.


I was in western Arkansas this past weekend, wow it is a night and day difference. I seem to remember it was a similar situation last spring too and a few MCS rounds in late May and early June really saved Oklahoma from being in a severe drought before the summer drought really kicked in later in June

The GFS is giving me glimmers of hope. Looks like we could be entering into a more active pattern on the 14th going through the 20th. Fingers crossed that holds out.

Large wildfire ongoing near Weatherford. Fire warning has been issued. Meanwhile, a bit of good news for the Metro as the high clouds and a slightly delayed dryline passage relative to what was modeled will most likely keep the wildfire risk here slightly lower than it was on Friday.

I know it's just griping, but our weather is absurd.

Can we not have a sustained period of 60s and 70s without launching straight from the deep freeze into the upper 80s? Looks like more hot temps by the end of the week and we are only in April. We have to be the high utility bill capital of the world.

By early June last year, we started that horrific heatwave and drought that didn't let up until late September. Please not again.

I know it's just griping, but our weather is absurd.

Can we not have a sustained period of 60s and 70s without launching straight from the deep freeze into the upper 80s? Looks like more hot temps by the end of the week and we are only in April. We have to be the high utility bill capital of the world.

By early June last year, we started that horrific heatwave and drought that didn't let up until late September. Please not again.

I don't think so! I've always maintained that we have any where from two to four weeks worth of perfect weather here in OK. Usually a week, maybe two max in each the transition to spring and then again the transition to winter. Of course, give or take. . .

I do agree that OK has some of the worst weather in the country in terms of extremes. I don't know if there has been weather studies done in major metropolitans that factor in a combination of extreme temperatures, wind, and precipitation (type & frequency)... But if one did exist - I would bet on Oklahoma City being high on the list as being overall "bad".

Oklahoma weather in summary is whatever regular weather occurrence (hot, cold, rain, snow) then make it the extreme version of each.

It would be interesting to see a map of America like those "Soda, Pop, or Coke" maps, but make it weather terms.

In all honesty, allergy indices are weighed in some QOL ratings, and always harm OKC and the rest of the state, rather unfairly, and don't provide apples to apples comparisons. I wish there was something Oklajoma could do about the weather and allergies here, but there just isn't. And it hurts Oklahoma City in QOL rankings quite often.

It's probably selective memory but I remember having a month to 6 weeks of 60s & 70s in spring and fall before it got really cold or really hot.

I know it's just griping, but our weather is absurd.

Can we not have a sustained period of 60s and 70s without launching straight from the deep freeze into the upper 80s? Looks like more hot temps by the end of the week and we are only in April. We have to be the high utility bill capital of the world.

By early June last year, we started that horrific heatwave and drought that didn't let up until late September. Please not again.
I’m on the subway about to hop out to 62 degrees Pete. :Smiley122

Come back to Cali

I know this is the smug Californian coming out in me...

But you know that one or two days in the fall and spring when it's warm and sunny during the day and pleasantly cool in the mornings and evenings with very little wind? Where absolutely everybody is outside and anyone that has a convertible drives around all day with the top down?

Well, it's like that 90-95% of the time in Southern California. And while I knew that from several trips, until I moved there I never fully comprehended the full greatness. It suddenly made sense why people are happy to pay a million dollars for a house most of us wouldn't live in. Turns out, you're never in it because the weather is nearly always absolutely gorgeous.

I knew that the weather would be the hardest part of my moving back and 6 years later, I'm still grouchy about it. It's like flying first class and then having to go back to coach.

I know this is the smug Californian coming out in me...

But you know that one or two days in the fall and spring when it's warm and sunny during the day and pleasantly cool in the mornings and evenings with very little wind? Where absolutely everybody is outside and anyone that has a convertible drives around all day with the top down?

Well, it's like that 90-95% of the time in Southern California. And while I knew that from several trips, until I moved there I never fully comprehended the full greatness. It suddenly made sense why people are happy to pay a million dollars for a house most of us wouldn't live in. Turns out, you're never in it because the weather is nearly always absolutely gorgeous.

I knew that the weather would be the hardest part of my moving back and 6 years later, I'm still grouchy about it. It's like flying first class and then having to go back to coach.

Yes. Anyone who says "why would anyone live in CA?!" haven't been there for a long time. It's wonderful weather. I do prefer Oklahoma's climate to deep cold winters of the north though.

The wind... That's the worst part. Always blowing unless you need it to blow.

I know this is the smug Californian coming out in me...

But you know that one or two days in the fall and spring when it's warm and sunny during the day and pleasantly cool in the mornings and evenings with very little wind? Where absolutely everybody is outside and anyone that has a convertible drives around all day with the top down?

Well, it's like that 90-95% of the time in Southern California. And while I knew that from several trips, until I moved there I never fully comprehended the full greatness. It suddenly made sense why people are happy to pay a million dollars for a house most of us wouldn't live in. Turns out, you're never in it because the weather is nearly always absolutely gorgeous.

I knew that the weather would be the hardest part of my moving back and 6 years later, I'm still grouchy about it. It's like flying first class and then having to go back to coach.

I also moved to OK from CA and every time I go back for a visit, I seriously consider moving back there for the weather alone. I just get very grumpy when the weather makes it difficult to spend any extended amount of time outdoors--and that's a lot in OK. The problem for me is that the type of houses I'd like to live in cost $11 million out there (though, despite the common view of the price of housing in CA, you can get some VERY nice places for substantially less than that). Maybe I'll win the lottery.

The wind... That's the worst part. Always blowing unless you need it to blow.

Haha.... So true. Where is the wind on those impossibly hot days?

It's like our weather was specifically designed where one very uncomfortable element is always active without anything to counterbalance it.

Yes. Anyone who says "why would anyone live in CA?!" haven't been there for a long time. It's wonderful weather. I do prefer Oklahoma's climate to deep cold winters of the north though.An ex of mine grew up in Burbank and later her parents sold everything in the LA area and bought an ocean view house near Carlsbad. We went for a couple weeks in different times of the year every year. The attraction of California weather I completely understand. The traffic on the other hand.................

Haha.... So true. Where is the wind on those impossibly hot days?

It's like our weather was specifically designed where one very uncomfortable element is always active without anything to counterbalance it.
Really!

I also moved to OK from CA and every time I go back for a visit, I seriously consider moving back there for the weather alone. I just get very grumpy when the weather makes it difficult to spend any extended amount of time outdoors--and that's a lot in OK. The problem for me is that the type of houses I'd like to live in cost $11 million out there (though, despite the common view of the price of housing in CA, you can get some VERY nice places for substantially less than that). Maybe I'll win the lottery.

I ended up leaving the beach (Manhattan Beach and Malibu) so I could buy a home and ended up in Thousand Oaks.

I literally cried when I made the move... But after a while you couldn't have blasted me out of there. Beach was only 15-20 minutes away and I had an actual home with a yard and could get a dog. I lived right next to Cal Lutheran University and all around was protected open space where I could walk over, let my dogs off the leash (I ended up with three big Labradors) and we could hike for miles without coming across anyone.

I loved it there for 13 years which is about as long as I'd ever want to be in one place. I've never regretted my move back, apart from the inevitable gripes about the weather. My family is here, my sisters and I are all aging and I'm very grateful I didn't wait much longer because I was able to spend several really good years close to my sister before I lost her to Covid.

My biggest mistake was buying a house without a pool, then realizing later there are easements in my pool-sized backyard. I grew up with a swimming pool and spent my college summers lifeguarding, then lived near the beach or in the case of T.O., had a massive swim complex (at Cal Lu) right down the street. I've literally been a life-long swimmer. I've got to fix my present pool-less situation as it would go a long way toward getting over my hatred of Oklahoma summers.

The wind... That's the worst part. Always blowing unless you need it to blow.

This! I can handle the temperature extremes, but the wind almost never stops. If I ever leave Oklahoma, it'll be because of the weather.

I will post a brief defense of the things that I enjoy about Oklahoma weather...

1) Having 4-6 days (on average) each December, January, and February where the high temperature reaches above 65 degrees is pretty great. Plus, we are fortunate (IMO) to have a notable decrease in precipitation amounts and frequency during the winter, while a large portion of the country experiences the opposite effect which can make the winter months incredible dreary. Growing up in Michigan (and still going back to visit family there fairly often around Thanksgiving and Christmas), I can attest that in the Great Lakes states, you're lucky to have more than two sunny days per week in the winter. Whereas in Oklahoma, it's fairly uncommon to have more than three cloudy days in a row.
2) Conversely, even in the heart of the July/August heat, we can usually count on 2-3 days of relief per month where high temperatures don't reach above 85 degrees. Granted, these days are often difficult to forecast in advance due to being fairly dependent on the chaotic nature of thunderstorm complexes rolling in from the High Plains, but they do happen, and they are certainly something that I feel we're fortunate to have, given that nearby cities such as Dallas and Austin can easily go an entire month without a reprieve from 90+ degree heat.
3) There's also a correlation here between higher temperatures and lower dew points as our occasional 100+ degree heat is largely caused by downslope winds bringing in airmasses from the Desert SW. I often find that the 100/60 T/TD days here are slightly more bearable than the more common 90/70 T/TD days where we are just soaking in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
4) The late September through late October weather here is often fantastic. Lows in the lower-mid 50's and highs in the mid-upper 70's with low humidity are common.
5) The gradual temperature rebounds following April and May cold fronts can be pretty great as well. We'll actually have a classic example of this over the next week.
6) The evening thunderstorms here are absolutely brilliant. There's something so comforting about seeing the sky come alive just after sunset, and you can almost always count on it happening at least a couple times per month between March and October.

^

If you love variety and extremes, there is no better place to be.


And to counter my diatribe I wanted to add some perspective on California weather. For 10 months out of the year it doesn't rain. At all. And you'd better hope you get some in those other two months, although sometimes that doesn't happen either. I heard thunder maybe 3-4 times in 25 years.

On planet Earth, water = life. And the lack of it is not just hard on your lawn but also animals and plants and irrigation and everything else. A lack of rainfall is an incredibly depressing thing. Something I took for granted and now that I'm back, I love every single drop that falls.

I remember one particularly bad summer when everything was brown and dead and there were severe restrictions on watering anything. The rabbits would come into my neighborhood looking for anything green to eat. The coyotes soon followed the rabbits, equally hungry. I'd see very skinny coyotes walking through my front yard in broad daylight, just a small indication of how much suffering was happening all around.

Also, believe it or not, nonstop sunshine can be depressing too. I remember going months without even seeing a cloud and the monotony of it all can take its toll. Not nearly as bad as the eternal slate-gray winter skies of the upper Midwest, but it did weigh on me.


I love Oklahoma, no matter the weather.

Interesting that the dry line has been retreating this evening almost to the far western counties where humidity is down to 4%. Anyway, if this system turns out bone dry, I'd rather take than tornadoes.

Interesting that the dry line has been retreating this evening almost to the far western counties where humidity is down to 4%. Anyway, if this system turns out bone dry, I'd rather take than tornadoes.

It's getting to the point where I am kind of expecting a brief round of storms across the Metro in a few hours. We'll see. (Not that I'm going to stay up for it.)

I really think the"difficult" weather plays a part in the character of people --it toughens people up and also makes them resilient, I find. I am SoCal born and raised (Glendale) and also had 7 years in Central Florida just before coming here in '09. Yes, the weather is hard here, but it actually humbles folks a bit, keeping them nicer than other people (especially all up and down the west coast) who are obsessed with the weather being perfect to the point of being inflexible and whiny--it's insufferable in the Pacific Northwest when I tell them where I'm from.

We saw how weather affected people's attitudes in Florida, too. People moved there from the northeast JUST for the weather, and then found out that life is more than weather and were incredibly unhappy people and unpleasant to deal with. Saw it all the time. You might not have to shovel anymore, but you DO still have a workaday life--it isn't vacation time just because you're in Florida (unless you're retired).

People here wear their weather toughness as a point of pride, which I think is cool and unique and in some cases after a catastrophe, admirable. it is our common challenge/obstacle that actually bonds us all together. We share inside jokes about weather, we're some of the most weather-literate people in the States, and we come to each other's aid like no where else--forging and sharing the Oklahoma Standard. It's part of our state's character and makes us rugged and resolute.

Finally a line of storms have developed in north central Oklahoma.

Well this storm was a bust..

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png?cache_bust=1680701368686

Right, just .03" of rain came here early Wed. morning, but still, I would rather go through a weak storm that doesn't rain much, rather than a bad one that comes with a tornado. BIG hail that makes roofers come soon knocking at your door isn't welcomed, either! I wished I asked those roofers how they knew a big hailstorm had just happened because some of them were from out of town!

I doubt the drought in the NW half of Oklahoma will ever be broken until the storms start training as they did in much of the SE half.

A definitely stronger than usual earthquake felt in central Oklahoma early Thursday morning, possibly not this strong since June of 2020. Probably strong enough to bring flashbacks back to Californians new to Oklahoma.

I wonder if the Oklahoma Corporation Commission needs to shut down oil drilling operations in Lincoln County. A 3.2 pre-quake happened at the same place on Tuesday.

https://stillwaterweather.com/images/earthquake.jpg

Right, just .03" of rain came here early Wed. morning, but still, I would rather go through a weak storm that doesn't rain much, rather than a bad one that comes with a tornado. BIG hail that makes roofers come soon knocking at your door isn't welcomed, either! I wished I asked those roofers how they knew a big hailstorm had just happened because some of them were from out of town!

I doubt the drought in the NW half of Oklahoma will ever be broken until the storms start training as they did in much of the SE half.

That's what happened in late May through mid-June last year after a somewhat-drier spring in western/central OK. Then of course the spigot turned off and summer 2022 was one of the hottest and driest on record.

Although we need rain, after my recent griping about our weather I feel compelled to point out that this week's temps look to be stellar: warm and sunny days and cool nights.

Guys, I miss thunderstorms. I’m ready to sit out on the back patio and watch the storms roll in from the west. Give me some nice Thunder and heavy rains to put me to sleep.

I don’t miss thunderstorms that try to kill us and destroy our property but I do miss the less intense thunderstorms. I know they’ll come but I’m getting antsy.

Maybe a small chance of storms from Sunday Evening into Monday. Very unlikely to be anything significant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llYA4GTsMps&ab_channel=MaryGreeleyNews

Appears we will most likely transition to a SW flow pattern sometime around next weekend, which will likely be accompanied by increasing chances for storms. Precipitation chances also continue to increase somewhat for the Sunday Night/Monday timeframe, although amounts still look to be low and severe weather chances remain very low to nonexistent.

It will be interesting to see what SPC puts on the 4-8 day outlook in a few days. The storm coming through next weekend may have some potential.

Decent chance of storms tonight, right around sunset. Storms should fire to the north of the Metro and then move SSW into the area (weird storm motion). Marginally severe hail and winds are possible. Looking towards the weekend, it appears that system is going to move through in a much more progressive manner than previously anticipated, so not expecting much precipitation unfortunately. Friday evening would be the best chance as of right now.

GFS is showing very limited rain chances up until the end of the month where it hints at things picking up a bit.

Drought begets drought and it’s going to take a serious storm with a ton of moisture to work with to put a dent in this drought. Might be a rough summer.

^Yes. The drought across W OK and KS is really taking complete control over the region.

Here is the storms SEMIweather mentioned above. Consider yourself lucky if you are under one this afternoon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023041012/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_14.png

SPC has upgraded a sliver of I-44 corridor to Slight Risk for a hail threat later this afternoon.

Forecast largely remains on track. Storms currently up around Enid and Ponca City should move through the Metro between roughly 6:30 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. this evening. Marginally severe hail and winds will be possible. This likely won’t coalesce into a solid line of storms, but I think that a majority of areas will receive measurable precipitation. Maybe up to 0.75” in the heaviest storms for a few fortunate spots.

I’m telling ya, this is a really strange spring so far. North to south moving storms…in mid-April. Craziness

I’m telling ya, this is a really strange spring so far. North to south moving storms…in mid-April. Craziness

Very strange system but some areas received some decent rainfall. Ready for spring storms already!!

It will be interesting to see what SPC puts on the 4-8 day outlook in a few days. The storm coming through next weekend may have some potential.

The answer from SPC today is 15% Slight Risk for Friday. Basically I-35 corridor and east. Looks like maybe a low development chance with high impact.

Friday is setting up as a classic conditional severe weather threat. Probably only a 15% chance of breaking the cap…but if we do get something, it’ll likely be big. Reminds me a lot of 04/29/2022 in that way (the cap held that day, but it was a very close call).

Cap too strong. Moisture return limited. The low over the Northern Gulf right now is keeping moisture down. That being all said it's only Wednesday and will change 4 more time at least by Friday. Also starting about the 20th look like an active pattern for the rest of the month.

Cap too strong. Moisture return limited. The low over the Northern Gulf right now is keeping moisture down. That being all said it's only Wednesday and will change 4 more time at least by Friday. Also starting about the 20th look like an active pattern for the rest of the month.

That same low and the system over TX last weekend has created near perfect spring-like weather over Oklahoma for the past several days. Highs in 70's, lows in the 50's and lower humidity with light winds - if it was like this all the time we likely wouldn't be able to afford to live here ;) Ready for rainfall though we need every drop we can get during April-June..

^ You got that right. This has been outstanding. Weather gods must have read this thread a couple weeks ago and decided to give us a break.

Wouldn't shock we if there isn't a drop a rain tomorrow in the whole state tomorrow. Best chance is probably Oklahoma/Kansas State Line.

Yes, low chance with high impact.

Still way early, but next weekend looks spicy.

Friday 04/14/2023:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023041312/fv3-hires_ref_frzn_scus_36.png

Yes, low chance with high impact.

Still way early, but next weekend looks spicy.

Friday 04/14/2023:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023041312/fv3-hires_ref_frzn_scus_36.png

Oh, c'mon, not stormy for the OU spring game....

SPC has trimmed the Slight Risk for Friday to only be in extreme NC parts of the state.