In addition to having some lovely weather, it's nice to get a little bit of a break from some of the higher utility bills before it starts to get hot.

Next Thursday chance of storms from the SPC already. Wait today is only Friday right. I think at one time they never made outlooks available to the public probably should still be that way. Like really are we supposed to be preparing for something a week away that we all know will change the night of. Let's discuss

Next Thursday chance of storms from the SPC already. Wait today is only Friday right. I think at one time they never made outlooks available to the public probably should still be that way. Like really are we supposed to be preparing for something a week away that we all know will change the night of. Let's discussYes more models and NOAA forecasts are available further out than a few years ago and way more so than say 20 years ago. I don't bother looking at anything more than 72 hours out because it's generally a waste of time. And I'm sure not going to discuss anything further out than that because there's a very high chance it'll be wrong.

Next Thursday chance of storms from the SPC already. Wait today is only Friday right. I think at one time they never made outlooks available to the public probably should still be that way. Like really are we supposed to be preparing for something a week away that we all know will change the night of. Let's discuss

I agree, and I think a lot of the Mets who have participated here over the years do as well. The ones *not* generating hysteria on TV understand that those long range views are useful only in the most macro sense, eg "hey, there's a chance something may happen in a week," but.some TV types who are more interested in ratings than accuracy will slap them on a long range forecast and that's hardly how they're intended to be used. Last week they were putting a 15% SPC for today IIRC.
.

Half way through April and my rain gauge is less than 1/10th of an inch of rain. Considering normal for April is 3 inches, we’re trending horribly behind on rain. Let’s hope next week pans out.

In regards to the stuff on long range models. I feel like the Mets have been doing a pretty good job not overhyping stuff. Also, the GFS has been regularly overhyping storm system 1+ week out this year. I have seen this happen all month. You see signs of an active pattern evolving 10 days out but it just doesn’t happen.

^

We've also been averaging about 10 degrees above normal. Just after I replaced my frost-ravaged pansies, they are getting burned up in the heat.

Something better change before we hit summer otherwise we're going to have another year like the last, which was pretty horrific.

Hopefully OKC can access some of that SE Oklahoma water, because we need it. Someone in OKC pissed off mother nature, and now she is withholding rain,

Lake Hefner is already looking low, with red dirt exposed everywhere but the dam.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/hefner041123a.jpg

I think there were more TV storms chasers than there were storms today. JS

^

We've also been averaging about 10 degrees above normal. Just after I replaced my frost-ravaged pansies, they are getting burned up in the heat.

Something better change before we hit summer otherwise we're going to have another year like the last, which was pretty horrific.

My bet is that it will be similar to summer 2012 which was very hot and dry after a record-breaking 2011. But then we get into a cooler and wetter El Niño pattern later this year and the next few summers are milder like 2013-15. That’s my prediction, probably wrong but likely better than our local meteorologists :D

Unfortunately the position of the low was not favorable for storm development over OK. Storms firing now on the AR border where there was better moisture return. On to watching the next system that will likely be similar later next week

My bet is that it will be similar to summer 2012 which was very hot and dry after a record-breaking 2011. But then we get into a cooler and wetter El Niño pattern later this year and the next few summers are milder like 2013-15. That’s my prediction, probably wrong but likely better than our local meteorologists :D

Yep, every ENSO cycle is somewhat different but I think something like this is likely to be correct.

This upcoming El Niño is gonna be massive, possibly 3-4 degrees above normal. This is coupled with a massive decrease in sulfides in the northern latitudes due to regulations on ship emissions (https://transport.ec.europa.eu/news/new-shipping-fuel-standards-reduce-sulphur-oxides-mediterranean-80-2022-12-16_en)

Keep an Eye on Wednesday. There is a cap but not strong in some spots. Sharp dryline. SE moving storms. Hail storms. Could be a little interesting.

The problem with Wednesday is that so far it looks to be lacking convergence.

Folks, this is seriously not great right now. GFS shows almost no rain chances for north central oklahoma. As per usual, at least so far this year, the GFS is showing rain chances picking up 2+ weeks out; however, those have failed to materialize time and time again this year. We're so far into spring that the cold weather gardens are screwed unless you're out watering a bunch right now. I'm dreading summer...

Take your pick, neither looks very good this week. OKC mesonet station has only received 0.3" of rain this April and Tulsa 0.6". We should be at 2"+....

GFS rainfall chances this week
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023041706/gfs_apcpn_scus_21.png

EURO rainfall chances this week
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023041706/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_30.png

Well I was hoping for rain and storms on Wednesday but the cap looks way too strong now. Yesterday there were talks of a weak cap that could break today I don't see it breaking at all. :( I need rain

The way things are shaping up, this will have to be one of the driest Aprils on record.

Very, very bad start to the spring and summer.

West OKC only got 0.87 inches of rain in 2011. Was that a bad year? That’s the driest April per the Mesonet.

The entire state is in need of rainfall, even the SE. This April has been unusually dry

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/del30day_rain.current.png?cache_bust=1681768848387

Ten driest Aprils in OKC history, per the NWS climatology:

1) 1936 - 0.03"
2) 1989 - 0.17"
3) 2005 - 0.29"
T4) 1987 - 0.41"
T4) 1895 - 0.41"
6) 1971 - 0.62"
7) 1903 - 0.64"
8) 1961 - 0.73"
9) 1955 - 0.78"
10) 1950 - 0.85"

We are at 0.03" so far this April. Average rainfall in April since records have been kept is 3.26". Average over the last 30 years is 3.57".

West OKC only got 0.87 inches of rain in 2011. Was that a bad year? That’s the driest April per the Mesonet.

I'm just about 4 miles due east of the airport and my weather station hasn't registered *any* rain at all this April. The last time we had measurable rainfall at my house was March 31st; year-to-date total is 6.74".

I'm just about 4 miles due east of the airport and my weather station hasn't registered *any* rain at all this April. The last time we had measurable rainfall at my house was March 31st; year-to-date total is 6.74".

Then do you have any theory what is causing this unusual springtime drought? I've only had around 2.5" this year. The only good side of it is freedom from tornado outbreaks, so far. I've been free from big hailstorms, too. I stated one theory as to why, but it got deleted as trolling, misinformation, outrageous conspiracy nonsense, or whatever.

West OKC only got 0.87 inches of rain in 2011. Was that a bad year? That’s the driest April per the Mesonet.

It was a bad year and the worst bad summer ever. Oldtimers had never before gotten through such a daily hot summer with 100s every day. Only Phoenix through the summer was possibly worse.

There's not much you can do about it. Fortunately i have a well for watering the yard and i would suggest cleaning your outside A/C condensing unit coils to get ready for the heat.

GFS is giving me some hope that we could see some rain next week.

17992

This giant storm that will be sweeping across the US the next few days will allow a glimmer of hope for NW flow action across the Plains next week.

Dryline could fire today, but storm would stay far west. But at this point literally anything falling out of the sky is welcome.

Wednesday for OKC looks like another low chance at dryline firing west of I-35. Then another low chance of a thin line of storms sweeping through late overnight.

Then do you have any theory what is causing this unusual springtime drought? I've only had around 2.5" this year. The only good side of it is freedom from tornado outbreaks, so far. I've been free from big hailstorms, too. I stated one theory as to why, but it got deleted as trolling, misinformation, outrageous conspiracy nonsense, or whatever.

Medium term: We were in a El Nina pattern and now were in the early transition to El Nino pattern.

Side note: Climate is looked at in long term trends. One random cold rainy/snowy day or one random hot dry day is not enough data points to make any kind of scientific determination. There can be short term patterns occurring within longer term patterns.

...
Side note: Climate is looked at in long term trends. One random cold rainy/snowy day or one random hot dry day is not enough data points to make any kind of scientific determination. There can be short term patterns occurring within longer term patterns.

Yep, weather vs. climate.

This giant storm that will be sweeping across the US the next few days will allow a glimmer of hope for NW flow action across the Plains next week.

Dryline could fire today, but storm would stay far west. But at this point literally anything falling out of the sky is welcome.

Wednesday for OKC looks like another low chance at dryline firing west of I-35. Then another low chance of a thin line of storms sweeping through late overnight.

Northwest flow usually means good rainfall for Oklahoma so let's keep our fingers crossed that happens

Namnst STORMS only one or two but storms. HRRR LOL nothing. I'm going with the Nothing burger again. Drought and Cap. Hope I'm wrong

Anyone taking bets on the cap holding tomorrow? :wink:

Anyone taking bets on the cap holding tomorrow? :wink:

I’m surprised to see the NAM is calling for the cap to break tomorrow. So are some of the other higher res models. The HRRR doesn’t go out for enough yet.

I’m surprised with how today felt leaving work. A bit more humid than anticipated. Throw in the wind and the heat, and it was really starting to feel like stormier weather. My gut says that we’ve been getting hot enough that I think we’ll have a solid chance to break the cap tomorrow even in partly-cloudy skies. The question will be whether we get storm initiation at all out in front of the dry line. I’m feeling more confident that the cold from will give us and MCS system tomorrow at a minimum, however.

I’m surprised to see the NAM is calling for the cap to break tomorrow. So are some of the other higher res models. The HRRR doesn’t go out for enough yet.

I’m surprised with how today felt leaving work. A bit more humid than anticipated. Throw in the wind and the heat, and it was really starting to feel like stormier weather. My gut says that we’ve been getting hot enough that I think we’ll have a solid chance to break the cap tomorrow even in partly-cloudy skies. The question will be whether we get storm initiation at all out in front of the dry line. I’m feeling more confident that the cold from will give us and MCS system tomorrow at a minimum, however.

HRRR run tonight was like NOPE NOTHING. Nam watch out. Which model wins?

The models are at a big time disagreement right now. The NAM seems to be bringing in more moisture in the upper levels and has us very close to breaking the cap. It’s also developing a much more refined MCS coming through tonight. The HRRR has no storms popping and much less moisture available in the upper levels.

The cap is quite strong though regardless of what model I’m looking at. Looks like we need to hit close to 90 deg today to break it.

Conditional risk emphasized today with afternoon setup. Basically like we have had the last few weeks. Low chance of development, high chance of severity.

With full heating taking place across C OK currently, I would not be surprised to see SPC upgrade to Enhanced for hail and perhaps tornado parameters.

This is a day to keep an eye on the visible satellite imagery.

Is the HRRR coming on board with the NAM for storms near OKC? It's only one run but keep weather aware.

Purely a layman, non-scientific observation, but just taking a stroll outside the house the air just doesn't seem to have that warm "edge" to it I normally associate with storms. Breezy, a little sticky, but the clouds seem.to.be.keeping things meh in the heat department

Purely a layman, non-scientific observation, but just taking a stroll outside the house the air just doesn't seem to have that warm "edge" to it I normally associate with storms. Breezy, a little sticky, but the clouds seem.to.be.keeping things meh in the heat department

Clouds have moved east, need temps to raise about 10 degrees for any chance

Haven’t been paying too much attention to this one as I’m busy this evening and won’t be able to follow along too closely, but the wording in the SPC’s 1630z outlook discussion is definitely catching my eye.

Clouds have moved east, need temps to raise about 10 degrees for any chance

Yeah, we've got "cloudy sunshine" at best here.

The 1 pm run of the HRRR shows 2 storms now just south of the Metro. The last about 2 hours as the cap builds back in.

Also HRRR fires them around 9pm this could be an after dark event.

My weather station here in SW OKC says it's about 82 in my neck of the woods, a few miles SE of WRWA

My weather station at home is at 90 deg. However, it could be artificially high. Still though. We’re close to the cap right now.

NWS just launched special balloon and cap is still strong, but there are signs of mixing.

NAM still supporting a few cells popping off between OKC and Lawton.

My weather station was being a little too aggressive with the temps. I've been driving around OKC this afternoon and temps are barely 80.

HRRR now showing a few storms firing around 7-8 pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023041920/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_5.png

MD is out.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0561.png


Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern and south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192057Z - 192300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional severe threat increasing. Potential for
supercells with large hail and a couple tornadoes late afternoon
into the evening. A watch will be possible in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A conditional severe threat is increasing across
portions of southwestern and south-central Oklahoma. A surface
dryline continues to mix eastward across Oklahoma and Texas. Ahead
of the dryline, mid 60s dew points have moved north of the Red River
across southern Oklahoma. 19z RAOB from OUN indicates moistening and
a weakening cap beneath an elevated mixed layer with steep lapse
rates (around 8 C/km). Temperatures have warmed into the 80s with
strong daytime heating, with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. Further
indication of the weakening cap can be seen in satellite, as cumulus
fields continue to show increasing development. The 19z OUN RAOB and
surface objective analysis also indicate deep layer shear around
35-40 kts. The main risk with any initial storm development would be
large hail, given steep lapse rates. As the main wave approaches
from the west with deepening low pressure across the Central Plains,
850 mb flow will increase through the evening, further elongating
hodographs and increasing risk of a couple tornadoes. Trends will be
monitored closely with a watch will be possible within few hours.

..Thornton/Grams.. 04/19/2023

Towers are busting through right now. ~4:35pm

One near Mustang and another down toward Chickasha.

Ninnekah storm looking right away like a near-term threat for the Metro.

Tornado Watch is out for all of C into SW OK. 40% Tornado Probability. 60% Hail.

Norman, I would take hail precautions now. Chickasha storm going up big.

Beginning to get some separation on at least 3 storms as of ~5:20pm. Mustang-Moore, Norman, and then new Chickasha cell.

Full now-cast situation, so tune into any local news channel and they will have coverage.

Dime-sized hail and strong winds near Penn Square.

Brief 2 minute downpour around NW 39th and Meridian. Looks like more coming up from the SW.

Glad we’re getting all of this rain right now. We sure needed it.

This is insane. I can’t remember a time when our models whiffed this badly on the storms. HRRR had nothing until late this afternoon. Seemed like the models also had the cold front coming through earlier than reality. Winds are suggesting that the cold front is not even in Oklahoma yet. This is going to be a long evening.

Chickasha-Newcastle cells going to tornado in a min. ~6:20pm

^Newcastle storm tornado warned. Chickasha coming next.