Next storm system coming through the Plains Thursday into Friday. Severe threat at this time looks to be across SE OK. Cold rain and wind for C parts of the state. Perhaps a quick burst of wrap-around snow.

Another wet system. Wish some of this could spread west - some parts of eastern OK have seen some of their highest February rain totals on record
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023022806/ecmwf_apcpn24_scus_21.png

Latest forecast is taking a shift further SE.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2023030118/nam3km_apcpn_scus_16.png

Just for fun, look at the forecast map compared to the current drought map. Just in October last year, a majority of Arkansas was in drought conditions just like Oklahoma. They have 100% recovered and are now in flood stages.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_usdm.png?cache_bust=1677708790960

The good news is the storm track stays active over the next couple weeks and our wettest months are approaching so hopefully that drought continues to edge back west. I feel like parts of western OK and the Panhandle are always in some stage of drought.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023030118/gfs_apcpn_us_64.png

The morning (0700 CST) SPC update dropped the OKC metro out of the Marginal risk area. The SE half of the Tulsa metro is still in the Marginal risk area... Risk increases as you head south and east. Broken Bow/Idabel are in Moderate along with NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and NW Louisiana.

Cold air for the win again for the Metro. DFW on the other hand. OH NO

This is from the NWS: Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs
or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and a couple of
strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas into the ArkLaTex this
afternoon through tonight.

From Norman This Morning: * HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY...
A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears likely from parts of central and north Texas, across southeastern Oklahoma and the Arklatex region, and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorm gusts (some potentially over 70mph), large to very large hail, and several tornadoes (some strong) are all expected.

So when I post something like OH NO I'm not rooting for Severe Weather I'm just saying OH NO meaning it could be bad today in Texas. Please Prepare.

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1631426610779025408?s=20 DFW area if anyone has friends or family there.

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* Until 630 PM CST.

* At 534 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near White
Settlement, moving east at 40 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Tarrant County including White
Settlement...Benbrook...and Fort Worth.

..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
MCCURTAIN COUNTY...

At 622 PM CST, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 14
miles north of Broken Bow, or 30 miles northwest of De Queen, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Wow. oh maybe I shouldn't say that.

Active storm track continues with storm systems coming through the state around 3/7-8, 3/9-11 and 3/17-18. The system next weekend may have enough cold air for snow in northern OK and into Kansas. Temperatures stay on the cool side all next week.

Question is, will okc actually get any rain? We've missed out on material amounts of rain so many times recently, I'm about to give up.

Question is, will okc actually get any rain? We've missed out on material amounts of rain so many times recently, I'm about to give up.

Decent chances right now

The rainfall map over the past 60 days pretty much follows the typical rainfall patterns across OK with the far NW and the Panhandle unfortunately trending drier which is also where the drought is most severe. It's also why there are such stark landscape differences between eastern and western parts of the state. Parts of the Panhandle average less than 16" which is a desert climate while parts of SE OK around Broken Bow are nearly at tropical rainforest levels approaching 60"
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.1440hr.png?cache_bust=1677879202160

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285909052/figure/fig1/AS:669456183353355@1536622200939/Climatic-features-of-Oklahoma-a-average-annual-precipitation-inches-Oklahoma.png

NWS forecasting some good rain this week...

17917

Image posted by NWS at 6:02 am CST on Monday, March 6.

Sharp divide between the haves and have nots with this system

Also, SPC bumped OKC metro into Marginal risk tomorrow, mainly for hail potential.

Latest data pointing toward majority of the heavy rain being across S and SE OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023030712/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_60.png

As per usual, OKC getting screwed.

Am I the only one to hear a siren this morning?

Am I the only one to hear a siren this morning?

Nope, I heard it too, 7-8-ish, we're at 36th/May and it sounded south of us, close to 23rd maybe. And it was only one, weird.

EURO has the bulls eye for heaviest rainfall from Ardmore to DFW
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023030706/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_24.png

GFS not as bullish but with higher totals across eastern OK into NWA
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023030712/gfs_apcpn_scus_11.png

EURO has the bulls eye for heaviest rainfall from Ardmore to DFW


Really hoping the Euro is correct for once... I've not had a full pond in 2 years and I'm still about 10' low.

Nope, I heard it too, 7-8-ish, we're at 36th/May and it sounded south of us, close to 23rd maybe. And it was only one, weird.

I am out in Yukon and I heard a siren this morning as well, not an emergency vehicle siren.

Narrow band of 1"+ yesterday from just east of OKC through Tulsa. The same areas could pick up another 0.5-1" today before the storm moves out.

A more powerful system moves in around 3/17. Looks like a typical spring storm with severe weather across the Plains and snow on the backside.

SPC outlining 15% severe risk across E half of OK for Thursday evening.

Severe threat being trimmed to only be across SE OK and into TX. May not see any rain here in OKC from this storm.

Yep, I'm convinced OKC has somehow upset and offended mother nature, somehow. OKC hopefully has water stores elsewhere, because Hefner is about to be bone dry.

The real hole is the OK Panhandle and SW Kansas - very little rain has fallen over that area going back 10+ months. I know the Arkansas River has been running mostly dry through Tulsa since the end of last summer. Yet the river is full in Ft Smith and Little Rock with minor flooding on some tributaries

The gradient between no drought and extreme drought is only about 60 miles in Tulsa/Osage County..
https://i0.wp.com/coyotegulch.blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/usdroughtmonitor03072023.png?ssl=1

Possible rain totals end of week - EURO is more bullish on rainfall totals in central OK..
GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023031418/gfs_apcpn_scus_12.png

EURO
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023031412/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_26.png

Oh Hail. There could be some big Hail tomorrow Lawton, Davis, Ada south and east tomorrow (3-16). Metro looks good as of now. Tornadoes possible also but the Hail could be huge.

It's going to be really close for if the storms fire in time to hit OKC. Basically like every storm system so far in 2023, I-44 is the battlefront.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023031512/fv3-hires_ref_frzn_scus_30.png

I know the climates are different but I don't remember there being such a stark difference between western and eastern Oklahoma. Maybe the lingering drought is still affecting moisture return?

Might be a close call from the metro for some storms from `12-2 tomorrow. Might have some hail. Depends on how fast the cold front comes blasting thru and usually they blast thru much quicker than computer models seem to think. Bigger storms down by Ardmore Thackerville and East.

Morning update looks like it's going to be a real close call for the Metro for some halestorm especially if you're just east and Southeast keep an eye out to the sky

Not a fan of that band, so thanks for the heads up

Not a fan of that band, so thanks for the heads up

I saw that using my voice to text. Not a fan either lol. Anyway 40% chance of a thunderstorm watch coming out for the Metro. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0290.html

Holy cow, what a monsoon!

Should really help kick-start spring.

I’m just on the north side of the rain band so we’re missing most of this. Getting a bit of rain and some thunder which is nice though.

Cold front has passed through most of the Metro. Currently, it is just north of Norman. This should reduce the severity of the storms for OKC metro going forward. I am that that front is moving as fast as it is.

Just read a scientific article that mentioned our La Niña event is over and it’s highly probable that we’re going to enter an El Niño pattern in 2023. What effect will that have on our weather this year?

Just read a scientific article that mentioned our La Niña event is over and it’s highly probable that we’re going to enter an El Niño pattern in 2023. What effect will that have on our weather this year?

THe former is generally a cooling event, while the latter is generally a warming event. El Nino is also generally associated with a stronger, more southerly jet stream. Stronger jet streams in Oklahoma usually point toward stormier weather in the springtime, but from what I've read, the El Nino pattern is really expected to firm up until mid/late summer into fall.

May help to avoid months and months of extended drought for OKC and the state, in general.

THe former is generally a cooling event, while the latter is generally a warming event. El Nino is also generally associated with a stronger, more southerly jet stream. Stronger jet streams in Oklahoma usually point toward stormier weather in the springtime, but from what I've read, the El Nino pattern is really expected to firm up until mid/late summer into fall.

Just being in a neutral state should lead to stormier weather compared to the La Nina state we had been in.

I’m definitely ready for some consistently warmer weather. I know March is often up and down with temperatures and often windy but this month has been unseasonably chilly.

Cold St Paddy weekend on tap for us. Saturday night/Sunday morning lows will be near 20F here in OKC. Will definitely interrupt some foliage cycles.

Jeez March sucks this year. Probably going to lose all of my cold weather garden sprouts and will have to start over…which doesn’t go well.

So sick of the cold temps.

Well, if it keeps the wasps amd mosquitos away a little longer, stay cold and freeze!

Jeez March sucks this year. Probably going to lose all of my cold weather garden sprouts and will have to start over…which doesn’t go well.

So sick of the cold temps.

This pattern seems to happen pretty much every year - winter, warm-up for a few weeks, below-freezing cold snap, real spring. Everybody in OKC should be used to it by now...

Well, if it keeps the wasps amd mosquitos away a little longer, stay cold and freeze!
My thoughts exactly. I have no hard evidence for this but I swear the bugs are worse when we don’t have a freeze early in the spring season.

This pattern seems to happen pretty much every year - winter, warm-up for a few weeks, below-freezing cold snap, real spring. Everybody in OKC should be used to it by now...

My thing is the last few years it seems the cold days always fall on weekends. The last spring that I remember with plentiful amazing weekends was the initial covid year. So it was kind of robbed.

I just feel so cheated when we are 70s on a Tuesday Wednesday, then have 40s on the weekend. I guess it is great for people who don't work M-F jobs.

Next week looks pretty unsettled across the state with the best rain/storm chances Tuesday, Friday and Sunday. Warmer daytime highs in the 60's and 70's with higher dewpoints - possible mid-60's dewpoints by Thursday/Friday!

GFS potential rain totals through end of next week
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023031712/gfs_apcpn_scus_38.png

This pattern seems to happen pretty much every year - winter, warm-up for a few weeks, below-freezing cold snap, real spring. Everybody in OKC should be used to it by now...I agree. And it can get cold later than this. I remember riding a couple Red Bud Classics with frost on the ground and watching out for icy spots on the roads. And it's in early April.

Here we go again. This Thursday SPC already has slight risk for Oklahoma. As of right now all modes possible. However it is only Saturday so a lot is going to change.

Still maintain on Sunday morning a 15% area for much of the state on Thursday evening into Thursday night. I guess technically it's not a slight risk this far out but the risk is there. Probably another cold front crashing in type deal. Might be a risk area on Wednesday.

EURO estimated rainfall totals through Friday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023032012/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_36.png

Damn! Outside of the bullseye again. Getting concerned about the lack of rain we’re getting.

The EURO is accurate about 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000001% of the time.

The EURO is accurate about 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000001% of the time.

I usually blend the two together

This is the EURO 3 days before last week's storm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023031412/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_26.png

This is the GFS 3 days before
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023031418/gfs_apcpn_scus_12.png

and the actual rainfall totals from Mesonet
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.120hr.png?cache_bust=1679349384818

Here is the GFS model for this week's storm, most of the heavy rain is in far eastern OK into Arkansas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023032018/gfs_apcpn_scus_17.png

The growing difference between the north side of I-44 and the south side will continue this week. Thursday's severe threat is trimmed down to mostly far S/SE OK. More flooding rainfall for E parts of the state into AR.