The growing difference between the north side of I-44 and the south side will continue this week. Thursday's severe threat is trimmed down to mostly far S/SE OK. More flooding rainfall for E parts of the state into AR.

The difference is stark. Unreal how dry it is in the Panhandle. Flooding south and east of Tulsa, meanwhile Bartlesville is running out of water https://www.examiner-enterprise.com/story/news/2023/03/15/water-supply-continues-to-dry-up-residents-urged-to-conserve/70011717007/

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png?cache_bust=167940 5334694

Another view of the I-44 divide
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delwateryear_rain.current.png?cache_bust=167941942 2980

A little bit of life being breathed back into the OKC area for Thursday evening storm chances. SPC has added C OK back into the Slight Risk. Emphasizing hail threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023032200/fv3-hires_ref_frzn_scus_47.png

It’s absolutely crazy just how similar the 12z HRRR output is to the last few systems…I-44 looks to be right on the dividing line once again. Major hail threat for areas that do get storms tomorrow afternoon.

Flood Watch issued for parts of central and eastern OK. 2-3” of rain possible with possible river flooding in SE OK

Interesting as the NAM is showing the cold front cutting off the cluster of storms before they move through the city. That should limit the severe weather threat for the area. Curious if this is a new development in the models of what because I’m just not seeing much of a severe weather threat from them currently.

Edit: I should say that it almost looks like the highest severe weather threat is back to the west…per the NAM but that is counter to what everybody is saying. I’m confused lol

Edit edit: Nevermind. I see the storms firing along the boundary. They just weren’t as pronounced on the high res NAM model. Still looks like there’s some decent instability out west prior to the front moving through. Will be interesting to see what happens.

I say cold front for the win again tomorrow. HRRR latest run has trended to a bigger push by the cold front keeping everything just ever so east of the metro. Either way it's going to be another close call for the metro and don't let your guard down there might be some big hail close by.

Agreed. This system is nearly identical to the last one. The majority of the heavy stuff looks to setup just E of OKC. There could be some big time flooding just SE of both OKC and Tulsa.

OKC's main rain will likely come from getting clipped by storms firing near Lawton.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023032300/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_46.png

^ That is a crazy narrow gradient between flooding rain and nearly nothing. It will all depend on where the "train" sets up. Parts of S Tulsa could be underwater while N Tulsa has sprinkles.

Anyone have a feel for what time the biggest hail threat will be for the OKC metro?

It seems like almost every time the bulk of OKC is on the edge of big rainfall predictions, we get far less than modeled.

It's all part of the already massive and ever-widening difference between the western and eastern parts of the state.

Anyone have a feel for what time the biggest hail threat will be for the OKC metro?

I would say 9-10pm is OKC's best shot at any hail, but the hail threat will be very low and likely non-damaging. This assumes early development around 5-6pm fires up SE of OKC.

OKC's best shot at rain/storms appears to be getting clipped by storms that develop toward Lawton.

I would say 9-10pm is OKC's best shot at any hail, but the hail threat will be very low and likely non-damaging. This assumes early development around 5-6pm fires up SE of OKC.

OKC's best shot at rain/storms appears to be getting clipped by storms that develop toward Lawton.

Thank you for your analysis.

Cold front already pushed through downtown okc. I would suspect that this limits the severe weather threat quite a bit.

SVR watch is out for I-44 and points E. Temps here in C OK are in the 50s, so nothing too wild is expected. Heavy rain will be the main threat, maybe some very small hail mixed around taller storm columns.

Norman about to get a big drink in the next 45 min if that storm holds up.

Here is the latest HRRR:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023032319/hrrr_apcpn_scus_14.png

I'm a little surprised the watch area is as far north and west as it is, given the air temps. It's in the high 50s in my part of S OKC and I have a hard time seeing anything too big going up nearby.

Agreed. This system is nearly identical to the last one. The majority of the heavy stuff looks to setup just E of OKC. There could be some big time flooding just SE of both OKC and Tulsa.

OKC's main rain will likely come from getting clipped by storms firing near Lawton.



This info from this morning still looks to be holding true as we head into the evening. We really need to have the storms developing around Lawton to creep further north for OKC to have a shot at any meaningful rain tonight. Current radar trends show that being a tall order.

Latest NAM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2023032318/nam3km_apcpn_scus_8.png

Man, who in OKC upset mother nature? We are a desert, and are desperate for rain.

Axis of heavy rain is currentlt setting up just east of the OKC metro potentially backbuilding into OKC/Moore/Norman. There will be some 3"+ totals with this line of storms that should last for the next 4-6 hours.

HRRR model for 10 pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023032320/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7.png

We've got about a quarter inch of cold rain here the last half-hour or so

I know that as we move further into April, these boundaries will lose a little steam and will stop setting up so far south and we’ll get some rain out of these systems. However, this is frustrating with how little rain okc and north has been getting.

So is OKC basically now free and clear? Or will there be more coming in later? Seems like it's all south of us.

COLD FRONT FOR THE WIN. It's way further south than anyone thought. Still might get some rain in the metro tonight but over all the front pushed a lot further east.

So is OKC basically now free and clear? Or will there be more coming in later? Seems like it's all south of us.

As I mentioned earlier. OKC will have a short window of strong storm/rain with the last cluster of severe storms moving up from Lawton currently. However, this will likely be a glancing blow if the storms don’t die or miss completely.

Storms developing directly over OKC proper right now! *applause*

Storm coming into SW OKC is severe.

Man, who in OKC upset mother nature? We are a desert, and are desperate for rain.

It depends on where you live in Oklahoma and even Oklahoma County. It's interesting how this year the weather systems have been setting themselves up complete with training rain so that that most of eastern and southern Oklahoma is now cleared of drought. It's also, interesting how extremes have gone from exceptional drought in northern Osage County to no drought at all in much of neighboring Tulsa County.

With the current rain train producing system, Stillwater has only gotten .1" at best, while an hour away to the south Shawnee has had 2.5" of rain, so far. I-44 is a major cut off area. The situation won't change until the cold fronts delay passing through northern and central Oklahoma so soon in the day as before noon. The only downside to that is that a delay to later in the afternoon gives tornadoes and big
hail a more favorable time to develop.

https://stillwaterweather.com/images/drought.png

2023 in an image.

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.2160hr.png?cache_bust=1679661500424

Let's do this all again next Thursday March 30th shall we. SPC already has 15% area for much of Oklahoma.

Let's do this all again next Thursday March 30th shall we. SPC already has 15% area for much of Oklahoma.
Let’s not. You keep posting and then the cold front blasts through and nothing happens.

Let’s not. You keep posting and then the cold front blasts through and nothing happens.

That is pretty typical this time of year. The classic dryline setups usually don't happen until later in April when there is better moisture return across the Plains.

What is unusual about this year is the sharp divide along I-44, there is usually a gradient but not as pronounced and typically is further west. Likely a lingering side effect of the extreme drought across western OK into Kansas.

2/3 of the state is running at or above normal rainfall over the last 180 days, which is typically our driest period
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/del180day_rain.current.png?cache_bust=167967045222 4

I’m so sick of cold weather.

I’m so sick of cold weather.
You're not alone! I'm ready to cruise in my Miata without a jacket.

Let’s not. You keep posting and then the cold front blasts through and nothing happens.

I'll give you that these cold fronts have been much stronger. Did anyone in the state have big hail yesterday?

I’m so sick of cold weather.

I am too, while grateful early 2023 has been free from record low temps and with no deep snowstorms. Winter of 2023 was unusually free of much snow. Now to get through April, May and June without very bad weather.

I'll give you that these cold fronts have been much stronger. Did anyone in the state have big hail yesterday?

North Texas & southwest/southern Oklahoma. The Texlahoma region...

Computer Models starting to agree a bit more for Thursday. This doesn't look like a cold front situation however CAP might come into play and limit storms. Stay tuned

I’m so sick of cold weather.

Yeah, me too but at least Spring is here

The Thursday-Friday storm is looking more meh today with most of the rainfall in far eastern OK (big surprise). The models are indicating a period of unsettled weather starting late the following week into Easter weekend that looks more classic severe weather setup with much warmer temps (into the 80's!) and higher dewpoints, and gets more of western OK into the action for once.

SPC still has the 15% probabilities marked across the S Plains for Thursday. However, this looks like a low chance, high threat situation. Would not be surprised for tomorrow's 3 day to just be Marginal category.

The cold weather this morning is a joke! Where is the warm weather in the mornings?

I mean, we’ve just been in a below-average temperature pattern in general since the last strong cold front moved through on Thursday, and we’ve gotten several reinforcing shots of cold air since then. Tomorrow morning will be the last below freezing temperatures until October or November, if I had to guess. Average last freeze of the winter is March 30th, so this is right around normal in that regard.

SPC still maintaining Marginal severe risk for C OK tomorrow evening. Again, low development chances, but high chance of anything that does develop being severe.

Fire danger from the strong winds will likely be the main focus Thursday into Friday. Smoke and dust will be blasting in from the W. As mentioned in this thread recently, the divide of I-44 has been extraordinary lately.

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/pctseason_rain.current.png?cache_bust=168010453209 1

EURO is more bullish on rainfall total than the GFS. Storms will be moving through central and eastern OK Friday morning
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023032906/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_24.png

Don't hold your breath for storms in OKC. Latest short-range models not liking storms anywhere but E OK. Will keep watching, especially satellite data for any CU fields that get busy.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2023033012/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_38.png

Jeez. WTF is going on this year?! I keep telling myself the cold fronts will quit coming in so fast and strong and things will open up a bit more for OKC as we go along, but I can’t help but be discouraged with the lack of rain so far this year.

Jeez. WTF is going on this year?! I keep telling myself the cold fronts will quit coming in so fast and strong and things will open up a bit more for OKC as we go along, but I can’t help but be discouraged with the lack of rain so far this year.
It sure seems like we haven't been getting rain. I just checked Mesonet to see how little we've had. I was surprised to see were .1 to .5 inches above normal for Oklahoma County YTD.

It’s been a knife’s edge for the Metro to start the year. Norman Mesonet site has had 6.8” over the last 90 days. OKC Mesonet site at 5.8” in the same time period, and Yukon Mesonet site way down at 3.0”. El Reno Mesonet site has fared even worse at 2.0”.

Overcast and cool. Don’t think the storms are happening today.

Did just catch a shower. I risked driving the Miata today. Just put the top up for the 3rd time in 10 years.

Anything that forms today will be elevated, mostly rain and maybe some thunder. A stronger line of storms will develop in eastern OK in the early morning hours and move quickly east. The next system arrives end of next week and could be interesting in that it may come more out of the southwest which could bring more widespread rain/storms
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023033018/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_3.png

Storms firing south and east of OKC. These look a little spicier than originally forecast but no organized severe wx likely

As mentioned earlier, strong winds will come blasting in today from the west as the dryline pushes out. Saturday actually looks pretty nice here in OKC, 60s and light wind. Sunday the wind picks back up as we warm back up heading into next week, where we will likely see some 80s Monday and Tuesday.


Tornado outbreak expected to begin today [Friday] in the next few hours across IA,MO, IL, all the way down toward MS.

Two areas of TORCON 9's!

Holy dust storm!

Good thing we've had decent rain recently. The sky is already brownish.

First High Risk upgrade from SPC in over 2 years. Two of the largest PDS tornado watches I have ever seen. Could be a historic outbreak day for the Mississippi Valley.

As for OKC. Here is the wind. Everyone enjoy your allergies tomorrow.

The current color of the sky is why I named my cat Dusty.

I work near some construction sites and holy moly is the sky reddish brown around us.

I miss rain and storms. It’s been nothing but wind and cold so far this spring. Really concerned about Hefner if our spring goes the way it did last year with rain only coming through over a period of 1-2 weeks.

I work near some construction sites and holy moly is the sky reddish brown around us.

Probably because of the fires?